If Miles is Fired This Year

[cjbowbros]

Warning: If you don't like this because it's not this season discussion you don't have to read this just move along.

 

I would be very upset when I actually spent a little time imagining this could happen I realized how crazy it would be. Many people want a fresh start with someone new. Who someone new is and how good they will be is not the topic here. I think we need to take a step back and realize what we might lose. If Miles is replaced we probably lose along with 2-4 commits if I'm including Jervay Green who I believe could be the best husker ever (not the highest bar but pretty high) and probably Roby along with who knows who else currently on the team. Are you really prepared to lose that much to go for a total rebuild? 

Of course the counter argument would be not that many players would opt out so I open it up to discussion what do you expect to lose if this occurs and how much could you lose while it would still be worth it?

[brfrad]

I would say it totally depends on how we end up the season.  If we tank and go 6 - 14 in conference and 16 - 16 overall.  The new coach would have a chance to keep almost all of the recruits, and players.  They would understand.  If we go 10 - 10 in conference 20 - 13 overall with a 1st round exit in the NCAA tournament,  it will be more difficult.   We probably lose a ton, as they think Miles got a raw deal.  

 

Plus, the coach we attract is more difficult if we fire a coach, who made 2 NCAA tournaments in 7 years.  Especially when we made 6 NCAA tournaments in 30 prior years.

[Silverbacked1]

I truly don't know what will happen.. I have always felt sad whenever we make any coaching changes at the University.

 

It is easy to sit at home or in the stands and quickly say this coach isn't doing the job to my standards.. 

 

But, as I have gotten older I think about the family.. Kids having to move and meet new people.. Selling a house, moving, not knowing where or when the next paycheck is coming.

 

I know that is what they sign up for and it is no different then anybody else losing a job.. Just changes my mind on how fast to pull the trigger on firing somebody.

 

Now I know a would not be cut out to have that level to have to make that call.

[AuroranHusker]

9 minutes ago, Silverbacked1 said:

I truly don't know what will happen.. I have always felt sad whenever we make any coaching changes at the University.

 

It is easy to sit at home or in the stands and quickly say this coach isn't doing the job to my standards.. 

 

But, as I have gotten older I think about the family.. Kids having to move and meet new people.. Selling a house, moving, not knowing where or when the next paycheck is coming.

 

I know that is what they sign up for and it is no different then anybody else losing a job.. Just changes my mind on how fast to pull the trigger on firing somebody.

 

Now I know a would not be cut out to have that level to have to make that call.

 

And these coaches know the deal, and more often than not, they're compensated quite well to be in that position. It's the real world, man. We're just fans. (*we have no say, either way*)

 

 

 

Edited January 9, 2019 by AuroranHusker

[unl]

Is anyone nervous it’d be Ernie Kent?

[ladyhusker]

 
And these coaches know the deal, and more often than not, they're compensated quite well to be in that position. It's the real world, man. We're just fans. (*we have no say, either way*)
 
 
 

Head coaches, yes.
Assistant coaches, sometimes. (At Nebraska they're paid pretty well, but at other schools that isn't always the case.)
Operations staff, not so much...but when the HC goes, generally so does the entire staff. It's part of the game, to be sure, and that's a known risk, but those guys aren't paid any differently than most everyday folks and get the boot too. Just...food for thought. I've known a few of them over the years, and that can be kind of a rough deal.

Sent from my SM-G930V using Tapatalk

[nustudent]

41 minutes ago, unl said:

Is anyone nervous it’d be Ernie Kent?

No

[nustudent]

8 hours ago, cjbowbros said:

Warning: If you don't like this because it's not this season discussion you don't have to read this just move along.

 

I would be very upset when I actually spent a little time imagining this could happen I realized how crazy it would be. Many people want a fresh start with someone new. Who someone new is and how good they will be is not the topic here. I think we need to take a step back and realize what we might lose. If Miles is replaced we probably lose along with 2-4 commits if I'm including Jervay Green who I believe could be the best husker ever (not the highest bar but pretty high) and probably Roby along with who knows who else currently on the team. Are you really prepared to lose that much to go for a total rebuild? 

Of course the counter argument would be not that many players would opt out so I open it up to discussion what do you expect to lose if this occurs and how much could you lose while it would still be worth it? 

 

A.   I wanted Miles fired after year 5.   That being said, I'm hoping it doesn't come to that.   Would much rather see us win and have him earn the extension

B.   If he is fired after this year, it's warranted.   Because that very likely means we missed the NCAA, again.   And there is no excuse for that with the talent we have on this team.

C.   If he is fired, it isn't a guarantee that those players are gone, only possibilities.

D.   Yes, it's worth the risk of losing those players.  If Miles can't win with this team, there's not much reason to believe he's going to win with any other.   Which means, you have to cut ties.   And a good coach is worth more than 1 recruit.

Edited January 9, 2019 by nustudent

[bigFRED]

If Miles gets fired we lose out on everyone except Akol and maybe Mika I'd say. Donovan would reopen his recruitment, Jervay would be gone, Roby would be gone, Tom would probably be gone unless the next hire is in house with Armon or Lewis.

[The Polish Rifle]

2 hours ago, unl said:

Is anyone nervous it’d be Ernie Kent?

I know the Ernie Kent thing is tongue in cheek - but I would put the odds of him being our next coach about the same as it being John Wooden.

 

People have to realize that WSU is on par with D2 teams when it comes to attendance. That job isn't in the same stratosphere as the Nebraska job.

Edited January 9, 2019 by The Polish Rifle

[hhcmatt]

Unless we pull a one and done kid in by April who we have for recruits won't and shouldn't matter for what happens with Miles long term as any new guy sure as Sunday needs to be able to recruit.  This was the answer during the entire off-season and it's still the answer after any losing streaks or tough losses we might have during the season.

[Dead Dog Alley]

Here's where it probably stands.  If NU makes the tournament and wins a game, Miles gets offered a 4 year extension.  If they makes the tournament and don't win, there's probably a 2 year extension.  If they make the NIT and make a run in it, a 1-2 year extension.  If they make the NIT and lose first round, there's about a 50% chance Miles is fired, otherwise there's either no extension or 1 year.  If they don't make the NIT, there's a 100% chance he's gone.  If you run off a guy even after a halfway successful season it makes the coaching search much more difficult; it's a lot easier after a season that's a disaster. 

 

Nebraska has only actually fired two basketball coaches in the last 50 years, after Danny Nee went 11-19 in his fourteenth year and Doc Sadler went 12-18 in his sixth.  Moe resigned right ten seconds after the first all-time NCAA tournament game, whether or not he would have been fired anyway is an open question.  Barry Collier left to be the Butler AD, he more than likely would have been let go after the next year.

 

Next year there are some promising pieces - Roby, Green, Allen, Burke - but it's far from a complete roster at this point.  Remember 3 years ago when we had Shavon Shields as a senior, with AWIII and Tai Webster as juniors?  Those were some pretty damn good players.  We went 16-18.

 

To re-iterate the importance of winning a tournament game this year for Miles, here are the only coaches from schools currently in the top six conferences who won their first NCAA tournament game after their seventh year at the school, since the tournament expanded to 64 teams in 1986.

Coach	School	Year of First Win
Leonard Hamilton	Miami (FL)	9
Leonard Hamilton	Florida State	9
Mike Montgomery	Stanford	9
Richard Williams	Mississippi State	9
Jim O'Brien	Boston College	8
Bruce Parkhill	Penn State	8

 

For the same conferences and time frame, here are the only coaches that lasted 10 years or more without winning a tournament game.

Coach School Years Danny Nee Nebraska 14 Bill Carmody Northwestern 13

Here are the only coaches in the top 6 conferences with a tenure longer than 6 years with no NCAA tournament win.

Coach	School	Years
Pat Chambers	Penn State	8
Tim Miles	Nebraska	7

 

I hope Miles gets it done: a few more five year rebuilding plans and my metabolic processes will be of interest only to historians; i.e., I'll be too dead to care.

 

Edited January 10, 2019 by Dead Dog Alley

[jimmykc]

Impressive amount of research, DDA.

[kldm64]

45 minutes ago, Dead Dog Alley said:

Here's where it probably stands.  If NU makes the tournament and wins a game, Miles gets offered a 4 year extension.  If they makes the tournament and don't win, there's probably a 2 year extension.  If they make the NIT and make a run in it, a 1-2 year extension.  If they make the NIT and lose first round, there's about a 50% chance Miles is fired, otherwise there's either no extension or 1 year.  If they don't make the NIT, there's a 100% chance he's gone.  If you run off a guy even after a halfway successful season it makes the coaching search much more difficult; it's a lot easier after a season that's a disaster. 

 

Nebraska has only actually fired two basketball coaches in the last 50 years, after Danny Nee went 11-19 in his fourteenth year and Doc Sadler went 12-18 in his sixth.  Moe resigned right ten seconds after the first all-time NCAA tournament game, whether or not he would have been fired anyway is an open question.  Barry Collier left to be the Butler AD, he more than likely would have been let go after the next year.

 

Next year there are some promising pieces - Roby, Green, Allen, Burke - but it's far from a complete roster at this point.  Remember 3 years ago when we had Shavon Shields as a senior, with AWIII and Tai Webster as juniors?  Those were some pretty damn good players.  We went 16-18.

 

To re-iterate the importance of winning a tournament game this year for Miles, here are the only coaches from schools currently in the top six conferences who won their first NCAA tournament game after their ninth year at the school, since the tournament expanded to 64 teams in 1986.

Coach	School	Year of First Win
Leonard Hamilton	Miami (FL)	9
Leonard Hamilton	Florida State	9
Mike Montgomery	Stanford	9
Richard Williams	Mississippi State	9
Jim O'Brien	Boston College	8
Bruce Parkhill	Penn State	8

 

For the same conferences and time frame, here are the only coaches that lasted 10 years or more without winning a tournament game.

Coach School Years Danny Nee Nebraska 14 Bill Carmody Northwestern 13

Here are the only coaches in the top 6 conferences with a tenure longer than 6 years with no NCAA tournament win.

Coach	School	Years
Pat Chambers	Penn State	8
Tim Miles	Nebraska	7

 

I hope Miles gets it done: a few more five year rebuilding plans and my metabolic processes will be of interest only to historians; i.e., I'll be too dead to care.

 

 

Interesting stats.  However, I disagree with you on potential extension for NIT bid and run in the tournament.  I don't think he will get a 1 - 2 year extension as if we don't make the NCAA tournament this year, he will be fired regardless.  And rightly so.  If he can't make the dance with this team, then it's time to part ways with Miles. 

 

Also, in reference to the opening comments for this thread, you don't keep a coach just because you might lose some players.  That should not factor into the decision.  Anytime you get rid of a coach, that can happen.  You can have players transfer or lose potential recruits.  In relationship to football, Bill Callahan could recruit decent players but couldn't win.  So you should never fire him in case we loose some of the recruits he had signed?  At some point, you have to cut your losses and just move on.

[rr52]

If Miles does get fired do you throw $3.5-4 million at Jay Wright (currently making $2.56 million at 'Nova) or Frank Martin (currently making $2.85 million at S. Carolina)? Would think with names like that the recruit loss would be minimal. Thought there were reports a year or two ago that Martin was possible candidate when Miles was on hot seat. Actually hoping this a moot point and Miles gets NU to the Big Dance and wins a couple.

[HB]

30 minutes ago, rr52 said:

If Miles does get fired do you throw $3.5-4 million at Jay Wright (currently making $2.56 million at 'Nova) or Frank Martin (currently making $2.85 million at S. Carolina)? Would think with names like that the recruit loss would be minimal. Thought there were reports a year or two ago that Martin was possible candidate when Miles was on hot seat. Actually hoping this a moot point and Miles gets NU to the Big Dance and wins a couple.

 

Oh my, here it comes.   The annual "if we just throw enough money at them they will come" posts.   No, Jay Wright is not coming here.  Ever.   Warren Buffet could unload his bank account and Jay Wright is not coming here.   Triple his salary and he  is. not. coming. here.    And Martin and Lue and Hoiberg aren't coming either.     

[HuskerFever]

6 minutes ago, HB said:

 

Oh my, here it comes.   The annual "if we just throw enough money at them they will come" posts.   No, Jay Wright is not coming here.  Ever.   Warren Buffet could unload his bank account and Jay Wright is not coming here.   Triple his salary and he  is. not. coming. here.    And Martin and Lue and Hoiberg aren't coming either.     

 

That might be a stretch. Triple my salary and I'll be more than open to an opportunity.

[HB]

22 minutes ago, HuskerFever said:

 

That might be a stretch. Triple my salary and I'll be more than open to an opportunity.

 

You might, but Jay Wright wouldn't.  

[HuskerFever]

7 minutes ago, HB said:

31 minutes ago, HuskerFever said:

 

That might be a stretch. Triple my salary and I'll be more than open to an opportunity.

 

You might, but Jay Wright wouldn't.  

 

I'm certainly not in the "give a blank check" crowd, and even if we were fortunate enough to do so, it's not in the best interest of the university.

 

But in a world of "if some school paid a coach $15M a year" then you're going to find some really interested and qualified coaches.

[*Deleted Account*]

HC choices if Miles is not hear for any reason. Prefaced by me thinking Hoiberg stays in the NBA

1st phone call: Dana Altman

2nd phone call: Eric Musselman (I think he gets UCLA gig)

3rd phone call (most likely hire of all) CRAIG SMITH. 

 

[Huskerpapa]

Tim Miles will be our coach next year.

[Huskerone]

Stopped reading after the warning, great idea adding that btw.  I'm enjoying the season, hope we are peaking at the right time.  I think a win tomorrow will be good for the Nebrasketball psyche.

[Silverbacked1]

If we call Dana there will be 6 seats open and I will never watch us again.

 

Turgeon if he is around, just me.

 

Really don't care because nobody is going to ask me, and we are going to get things going here starting tomorrow.

 

And I am scared if we do win an NCAA game because that would mean I have seen it all. 

[rr52]

1 hour ago, HB said:

 

Oh my, here it comes.   The annual "if we just throw enough money at them they will come" posts.   No, Jay Wright is not coming here.  Ever.   Warren Buffet could unload his bank account and Jay Wright is not coming here.   Triple his salary and he  is. not. coming. here.    And Martin and Lue and Hoiberg aren't coming either.     

I was just asking didn't mean to ruffle your feathers. Like I said, I'm hoping it doesn't come to that. So that is the conundrum Moos faces. Hire another smaller program coach and save money or go after a big name and offer lots of money? The reason I brought up Wright and Martin was because I was surprised at their salaries. And guessing behind the scenes there have been overtures made to Wright to take over other programs for a substantial raise since he has 2 championships to his credit. I'd just as soon concentrate on this season and this team with Miles coaching.   

[cjbowbros]

20 hours ago, Silverbacked1 said:

I truly don't know what will happen.. I have always felt sad whenever we make any coaching changes at the University.

 

It is easy to sit at home or in the stands and quickly say this coach isn't doing the job to my standards.. 

 

But, as I have gotten older I think about the family.. Kids having to move and meet new people.. Selling a house, moving, not knowing where or when the next paycheck is coming.

 

I know that is what they sign up for and it is no different then anybody else losing a job.. Just changes my mind on how fast to pull the trigger on firing somebody.

 

Now I know a would not be cut out to have that level to have to make that call.

Yeah I personally know that they enjoy it here and would love to to not have to leave Nebraska. Which I’m sure everyone assumed because it’s the best.