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nustudent

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nustudent last won the day on May 18 2022

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  1. I’ll take a William Kyle from SDSU and Saint Thomas if Gary or Williams moves on
  2. I'm not too worried about it. I've always expected them to be in. On average, we're about 7th or 8th in across all the brackets. I think several others near and behind us will play themselves out.
  3. I don't think we need to get to 21 to get in because we'll need the win. I think we need to get to 21, because it's avoiding a bad loss. All home games are Quad 3 at this point. And it's very possible Michigan (and a slight chance at Indiana) end up as a Quad 3 road game as well. One of our stronger selling points is that we are undefeated against Quad 3 and Quad 4 teams. That's a bigger feather in our cap than some people think/realize. Going 4-2 down the stretch does several things for us. Some officially count as metrics, some are more optics (like finishing strong)....but in no order... -You go above 20 wins and are 10+ games over .500 at 21-10 -You finish +.500 in conference play at 11-9 -You seemingly avoid any bad (Quad 3/Quad 4) losses. -You add another road win to the mix. -You finish the regular season above .500 in your last 10 -A NET rating likely in the 40s and certainly no lower than where we are now (53rd). -Likely Improvements in other ratings, some of which we are already sitting well in (KPI, KenPom, SOR, etc) It's possible we can still miss the dance at 21-10 in the scenario. But it would take some pretty remarkable (and probably unrealistic) events down the stretch from other bubble teams or some massive upsets in the conference tournaments from what would otherwise be one-bid leagues to force us out. At 20-11, a lot of those things above don't apply.
  4. While other teams can log some big wins as opposed to us...the odds that we finish as strong or stronger is in our favor too. Our schedule is pretty favorable. We really should expect to go 4-2 at worst, especially if we are truly an NCAA team. Take Wake Forest for an example....they play Duke twice, Clemson, @Virginia, @Va Tech on top of some other easier games. They can take a big jump if they win some of those, but they could very easily go 1-4 in those 5 games and 4-4 down the stretch too. Providence is another. St. Johns, @ Xavier, @ Marquette, Nova, UCONN. Those are 5 tough games. If they win 3 of those on top of beating Depaul and @ Georgetown, they will be sitting good. No shame in losing to Marquette or UCONN, but more than 1, maybe 2 losses to the other 3 and they'll be hurting. Ole Miss as well. @Kentucky, @Miss St, South Carolina, Bama, @Georgia, A&M. They get Missouri twice. But they probably need to win 3 of those 6 games. That won't be easy for them. Kansas St can do us a huge solid too in a few weeks by winning at Cincinnati. Hurts the Bearcats and possibly gets KSU back into Quad 1 range for us.
  5. If they keep winning, they could get to a Quad 1 loss/Quad 2 win status for us which will help. Basically become what we thought we'd have with Indiana.
  6. Bart Torvik has them going 3-6 in their final 9. His NET forecast has them finishing at 113. So they'd stay a Quad 2 road game. That being said, it wouldn't surprise me if they finish worse than that.
  7. For the time being. If MIchigan continues their plummet, that could be a Quad 3 game. And while I don't think they will plummet that far, Indiana has a relatively difficult final 7-8 games. If they crater...they could get close.
  8. This. 21-10 with 0 Quad 3/4 losses is going to be very hard to keep us out. Lot of other bubble teams didn't have front loaded conference schedules like we did either, so they'll pick up some losses along the way too.
  9. If we do that...we'd have 2 road wins and 1 neutral site win (before the Big 10 tournament). And all metrics that are actually criteria are solid. If the committee is going to make stuff up, we can't control that. And let's not pretend that other teams in our seeding area/bubble (10-12 seeds) are exactly dynamic on the road either.
  10. I don’t think we have to do anything remarkable to make it. Just win what we should. Take care of business at home. Win at Michigan. That avoids any quad 3 losses and puts us at 21-10.
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