NCAA Tournament Watch

[cipsucks]

6 hours ago, hskr4life said:

Also— find it interesting— Memphis is still considered solidly in but looking more bubbly… however their similar resumes are all “miss” outside of a one.

 

Memphis!  It's happening!

 

 

[HuskerFever]

16 minutes ago, HuskerActuary said:

I've always had a fear that we would get our first win in the play-in round. I don't want it to happen that way! Unless we win in the first round, too.

 

Well... in 100 years when the field is 128 teams and we win our 2nd NCAA tournament game, those people aren't going to be looking back and seeing that as an asterisk win.

[Cazzie22]

2 hours ago, Art Vandalay said:

But are they really?

 

KU is really the only one who played a tough non con. The rest beat up on easy schedules so it is hard to know how legit they really are. It’ll be interesting to see how the committee slots them.

Maybe I should have elaborated that there are so many teams of equal capability that any win is a good win. 

[cipsucks]

1 hour ago, HuskerActuary said:

I've always had a fear that we would get our first win in the play-in round. I don't want it to happen that way! Unless we win in the first round, too.

 

Yes and no.  A win in the Tournament is a win.  Remember, we could have been in the tourney years ago when it was less than 64 teams. But we were always on the outside looking in.  The 77 team was really good.  Won a first round NIT game.  I think the 63-64 Huskers were outstanding.  However, you can't go on huskers.com and find any records from the 60's teams.  It goes from 1975 to 1905.  That site pisses me off.  Nebraska athletics brought in 200 million dollars last year.  Their website sucks.  Fix it.  Anyway, when you look at recent history, the play in winners have a good record winning their next game.

[AuroranHusker]

31 minutes ago, cipsucks said:

 

Yes and no.  A win in the Tournament is a win.  Remember, we could have been in the tourney years ago when it was less than 64 teams. But we were always on the outside looking in.  The 77 team was really good.  Won a first round NIT game.  I think the 63-64 Huskers were outstanding.  However, you can't go on huskers.com and find any records from the 60's teams.  It goes from 1975 to 1905.  That site pisses me off.  Nebraska athletics brought in 200 million dollars last year.  Their website sucks.  Fix it.  Anyway, when you look at recent history, the play in winners have a good record winning their next game.

 

I was recently looking for info from NU games in the 90s and it was bupkis.

 

[hskr4life]

A few big bubble results for us tonight!  Not very many bubble teams are taking advantage of their big games or are losing games they shouldn't.

 

Rice beat Memphis @ Memphis.  Memphis might be out as of right now.  While we don't have a ton of opportunities for quality wins this year, we also don't have anyone we really play that can be as bad of a loss as Rice.  Slim margins for error when you get outside of the big 4 conferences.

 

West Virginia beat Cincy.  Cincy was outside of bubble, but still has/had at large hopes.  This knocks them down a peg.  They were still in 40/82 bracket projections on bracket matrix.

 

Pitt beat Wake Forest.  Wake was on the outside looking in, but were appearing in some brackets.

 

Xavier beat St. Johns. The Jonnies were appearing in all brackets, but only at an 8 seed average.  They are looking more bubbly each game.

 

Alabama beat Georgia.  Georgia had a long ways to go to get into consideration, but the path is even longer now.

 

 

[Cazzie22]

18 minutes ago, hskr4life said:

A few big bubble results for us tonight!  Not very many bubble teams are taking advantage of their big games or are losing games they shouldn't.

 

Rice beat Memphis @ Memphis.  Memphis might be out as of right now.  While we don't have a ton of opportunities for quality wins this year, we also don't have anyone we really play that can be as bad of a loss as Rice.  Slim margins for error when you get outside of the big 4 conferences.

 

West Virginia beat Cincy.  Cincy was outside of bubble, but still has/had at large hopes.  This knocks them down a peg.  They were still in 40/82 bracket projections on bracket matrix.

 

Pitt beat Wake Forest.  Wake was on the outside looking in, but were appearing in some brackets.

 

Xavier beat St. Johns. The Jonnies were appearing in all brackets, but only at an 8 seed average.  They are looking more bubbly each game.

 

Alabama beat Georgia.  Georgia had a long ways to go to get into consideration, but the path is even longer now.

 

 

Beat Wisconsin tomorrow and there will be light at the end of the tunnel.  We hope it’s not an oncoming train.

[brfrad]

2 hours ago, cipsucks said:

 

Yes and no.  A win in the Tournament is a win.  Remember, we could have been in the tourney years ago when it was less than 64 teams. But we were always on the outside looking in.  The 77 team was really good.  Won a first round NIT game.  I think the 63-64 Huskers were outstanding.  However, you can't go on huskers.com and find any records from the 60's teams.  It goes from 1975 to 1905.  That site pisses me off.  Nebraska athletics brought in 200 million dollars last year.  Their website sucks.  Fix it.  Anyway, when you look at recent history, the play in winners have a good record winning their next game.

eMzX5Ag226fMOiE7NlFRBtUu81TZYZm8ZvZGVznM.pdf (storage.googleapis.com)

 

I use this for a bunch of my research.  It was last year's media guide.  The results for last year are not included.

[REDZONEDAN]

1 hour ago, hskr4life said:

Pitt beat Wake Forest.  Wake was on the outside looking in, but were appearing in some brackets.

I’m not sure if it’s just me, but I really enjoy seeing Wake Forest lose.

[hhcmatt]

12 hours ago, cipsucks said:

 

Yes and no.  A win in the Tournament is a win.  Remember, we could have been in the tourney years ago when it was less than 64 teams. But we were always on the outside looking in.  The 77 team was really good.  Won a first round NIT game.  I think the 63-64 Huskers were outstanding.  However, you can't go on huskers.com and find any records from the 60's teams.  It goes from 1975 to 1905.  That site pisses me off.  Nebraska athletics brought in 200 million dollars last year.  Their website sucks.  Fix it.  Anyway, when you look at recent history, the play in winners have a good record winning their next game.

 

The problem is that Huskers.com will change their whole site stuff and then it breaks all the stats that some poor intern had updated the last time they changed. Rinse and repeat.

 

However, here is a great page to bookmark that will give you this information in one page

https://www.sports-reference.com/cbb/schools/nebraska/men/

[millerhusker]

Big Ten teams in today’s Lunardi bracketology update: 

Nebraska - 10 seed and this scenario would have us playing (beating) Kansas in the sweet 16.

Purdue - top overall seed (1-0 against them this year)

Wisconsin - 2 seed (1-1)

Northwestern - 7 seed (1-0 so far)

Michigan St - 8 seed (1-0)

Illinois - 4 seed (@Illinois on Sunday)

Wisconsin stayed on the 2 line after the loss to Nebraska. I think Wisconsin will beat Purdue this weekend. With the ACC struggles and so many top teams losing every week, it would not be shocking if both of those teams ended up as 1 seeds if they take care of business down the stretch. Can you leave a 20-11 team out that beat two 1 seeds? 

[hskr4life]

1 minute ago, millerhusker said:

Big Ten teams in today’s Lunardi bracketology update: 

Nebraska - 10 seed and this scenario would have us playing (beating) Kansas in the sweet 16.

Purdue - top overall seed (1-0 against them this year)

Wisconsin - 2 seed (1-1)

Northwestern - 7 seed (1-0 so far)

Michigan St - 8 seed (1-0)

Illinois - 4 seed (@Illinois on Sunday)

Wisconsin stayed on the 2 line after the loss to Nebraska. I think Wisconsin will beat Purdue this weekend. With the ACC struggles and so many top teams losing every week, it would not be shocking if both of those teams ended up as 1 seeds if they take care of business down the stretch. Can you leave a 20-11 team out that beat two 1 seeds? 

 

Lunardi posted on Twitter just now his thoughts.  He has Northwestern and MSU both as "80%+ chance to make the field" and us as a one of the 25 teams fighting for 7 bubble spots.  I'm sorry, but Northwestern's resume and our resume are really comparable.  Not a 7 seed and 10 seed difference IMO.

[TourneyBound]

35 minutes ago, hskr4life said:

 

Lunardi posted on Twitter just now his thoughts.  He has Northwestern and MSU both as "80%+ chance to make the field" and us as a one of the 25 teams fighting for 7 bubble spots.  I'm sorry, but Northwestern's resume and our resume are really comparable.  Not a 7 seed and 10 seed difference IMO.

I agree as of today but Northwestern's schedule for remainder of season is very favorable..  They could mount quite a few wins.  They are going to end up top 4 in Big 10 and possibly higher..

[hskr4life]

4 minutes ago, ConkintheCorner said:

I agree as of today but Northwestern's schedule for remainder of season is very favorable..  They could mount quite a few wins.  They are going to end up top 4 in Big 10 and possibly higher..

I guess I assumed most bracketology goes on “as of today”.  No way you can project out 68 teams remaining schedules but maybe Lunardi does.

 

Even so, we have comparably easier schedules down the road I think.  We also have the H2H over them.

 

Our home games Rutgers, Minny, Michigan, and PSU are comparable if not easier than theirs (Nebraska, PSU, Michigan, Iowa, Minny

 

Our roadies (Illinois, NW, Indiana, OSU, Michigan) compare well to theirs too (Minny, Rutgers, Indiana, Maryland, Michigan St

 

I think the Nw game is arguably bigger than the Illinois game and if I had to pick winning one, I’d choose NW.  We’re still in double bye territory as well as them AND sweeping the season series would do us a lot of good in March.

[Art Vandalay]

1 hour ago, hskr4life said:

 

Lunardi posted on Twitter just now his thoughts.  He has Northwestern and MSU both as "80%+ chance to make the field" and us as a one of the 25 teams fighting for 7 bubble spots.  I'm sorry, but Northwestern's resume and our resume are really comparable.  Not a 7 seed and 10 seed difference IMO.

Most of the ones I’ve seen have it reversed. We are the 7-9 seed and NW 10-11. They are good an I expect them to make it and probably jump us after we play them again.

[Norm Peterson]

We're 6-5 in conference games right now. Our 4 remaining home games are against teams ALL in the bottom half of current league standings (2 of the bottom 3) and a COMBINED 15 conference wins among them. We SHOULD not and we CANNOT lose any of those games at home. And I've been saying for awhile now, I have our last game of the regular season at Chrysler Arena circled in RED. That would get us to 21 wins overall even if we lose the rest of the road games (not saying we will) and it virtually guarantees that we'll have a first-round bye in the conference tournament with a good chance to pick up another dub before Selection Sunday.

[brfrad]

31 minutes ago, Norm Peterson said:

We're 6-5 in conference games right now. Our 4 remaining home games are against teams ALL in the bottom half of current league standings (2 of the bottom 3) and a COMBINED 15 conference wins among them. We SHOULD not and we CANNOT lose any of those games at home. And I've been saying for awhile now, I have our last game of the regular season at Chrysler Arena circled in RED. That would get us to 21 wins overall even if we lose the rest of the road games (not saying we will) and it virtually guarantees that we'll have a first-round bye in the conference tournament with a good chance to pick up another dub before Selection Sunday.

My rankings by difficulty

 

Home

1 (hardest)  Penn State

2.  Rutgers

3.  Minnesota 

4. Michigan

 

Away

1 Illinois

2 Northwestern 

3 Ohio State

4 Indiana 

5 Michigan 

 

We can't just show up and expect to win.  If we play up to our ability, I think we can get 6 wins.

[Ron Mexico]

44 minutes ago, Norm Peterson said:

We're 6-5 in conference games right now. Our 4 remaining home games are against teams ALL in the bottom half of current league standings (2 of the bottom 3) and a COMBINED 15 conference wins among them. We SHOULD not and we CANNOT lose any of those games at home. And I've been saying for awhile now, I have our last game of the regular season at Chrysler Arena circled in RED. That would get us to 21 wins overall even if we lose the rest of the road games (not saying we will) and it virtually guarantees that we'll have a first-round bye in the conference tournament with a good chance to pick up another dub before Selection Sunday.

Agreed and right now I'm not to concerned with Bracketology other than as a fun distraction.

What we can control is ourselves.

We have to continue to win at home.

I like your thoughts on Michigan. We've been in their position as a team many many many many times and have almost always folded.

(Anyone know our record against Michigan since we've joined the conference)

Beating NWU would be huge and I believe it is a much more important game than Illinois.  

 

What scares me going forward is that after Illinois we only have 1 potential Q1 game left and lot of teams that are fighting for their season. 

 

 

[hskr4life]

18 minutes ago, Ron Mexico said:

Agreed and right now I'm not to concerned with Bracketology other than as a fun distraction.

What we can control is ourselves.

We have to continue to win at home.

I like your thoughts on Michigan. We've been in their position as a team many many many many times and have almost always folded.

(Anyone know our record against Michigan since we've joined the conference)

Beating NWU would be huge and I believe it is a much more important game than Illinois.  

 

What scares me going forward is that after Illinois we only have 1 potential Q1 game left and lot of teams that are fighting for their season. 

 

 

100000% agree that Northwestern is bigger than Illinois today.  A win over Illinois is a nice feather in our resume cap, but sweeping a season series over a fellow bubble team including taking a road game is priceless.

[big red22]

1 hour ago, hskr4life said:

100000% agree that Northwestern is bigger than Illinois today.  A win over Illinois is a nice feather in our resume cap, but sweeping a season series over a fellow bubble team including taking a road game is priceless.

If they win either one we will be 3 wins away from being in the Tournament.  So I don't think either is more important than the other

[Norm Peterson]

Losing to Rutgers really sucks, but isn't it great that we look back and think the bad loss of the season was an overtime loss on the road to a conference foe ranked in the top 100 rather than some mid-major 200 level Incarnate Word kind of squad?

[cipsucks]

1 hour ago, Norm Peterson said:

Losing to Rutgers really sucks, but isn't it great that we look back and think the bad loss of the season was an overtime loss on the road to a conference foe ranked in the top 100 rather than some mid-major 200 level Incarnate Word kind of squad?

 

Not only that, if Gary doesn't get hurt, we don't lose that game.

[nuhusker7]

1 hour ago, cipsucks said:

 

Not only that, if Gary doesn't get hurt, we don't lose that game.

Not only that. If the team knows it’s just a calf strain and not an out for year injury we don’t lose that game.

 

We were mentally shocked at that point and it was hard to refocus.

 

When they zoomed in on Fred after I had never seen him look like that.

[Huskerpapa]

12 minutes ago, nuhusker7 said:

Not only that. If the team knows it’s just a calf strain and not an out for year injury we don’t lose that game.

 

We were mentally shocked at that point and it was hard to refocus.

 

When they zoomed in on Fred after I had never seen him look like that.

Yeah...I don't know. Kind of nice to think that, but we've witnessed that type of play before and since.  Fred has talked about that mental weakness, we need to overcome that hurdle.

[Norm Peterson]

2 hours ago, Huskerpapa said:

Yeah...I don't know. Kind of nice to think that, but we've witnessed that type of play before and since.  Fred has talked about that mental weakness, we need to overcome that hurdle.

 

Just did.