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Bracketology. ***Spoiler: We're not in it yet.***

uneblinstu

By uneblinstu
in The Haymarket Hardwood

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SkersHoops
SkersHoops

Andy Katz was on BTN live last night.  Said some really nice things about Nebraska.  Spoke a lot about the "quadrants", some of you have mentioned (as bigred4 did last week), the new system for NCAA s

jayschool
jayschool

Alright. Let's go 17-1. Remove all doubt.

nustudent
nustudent

The conference is down but let's not get carried away...it's still a respected conference.   We don't need 13 conference wins to get in.   10-8 with a tourney win would do it.  Especially if Minnesota

kldm64

kldm64

Posted
Posted
  On 12/28/2017 at 5:19 PM, uneblinstu said:

It probably isn't worth tracking just yet, but here's the latest one from Joey Brackets.

 

http://www.espn.com/mens-college-basketball/bracketology

 

We're not on the radar yet.

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If we had won the KU game, we probably would be on the radar.  Or actually if we would have just flipped any of our losses to a win, we'd be getting considered.  The life of an NU basketball fan.

Donkey

Donkey

Posted
Posted

tOSU is probably on the bubble now based off of wins against Michigan and Wisconsin. 

 

This projection expects Minnesota to struggle.

 

4 of 5 losses projected to be in with only SJU being on the bubble. 

 

Assuming a win tomorrow, we have 16 chances to win 10-11 games.  Should be a very interesting next two months.    

OmahaHusker

OmahaHusker

Posted
Posted (edited)

I'd recommend following http://bracketmatrix.com/ as the season rolls along. It takes ESPN's bracket as well as brackets from 31 other outlets and pairs them to find an average seed for each team. As of now, Nebraska isn't projected making it in any of them.

 

EDIT: Since I'm still relatively new to the board, if you guys already follow this site pretty regularly my bad. GBR

Edited by OmahaHusker
ajb5856

ajb5856

Posted
Posted
  On 12/28/2017 at 6:56 PM, Donkey said:

tOSU is probably on the bubble now based off of wins against Michigan and Wisconsin. 

 

This projection expects Minnesota to struggle.

 

4 of 5 losses projected to be in with only SJU being on the bubble. 

 

Assuming a win tomorrow, we have 16 chances to win 10-11 games.  Should be a very interesting next two months.    

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17+ chances

uneblinstu

uneblinstu

Posted
  • Author
Posted
  On 12/28/2017 at 7:12 PM, OmahaHusker said:

I'd recommend following http://bracketmatrix.com/ as the season rolls along. It takes ESPN's bracket as well as brackets from 31 other outlets and pairs them to find an average seed for each team. As of now, Nebraska isn't projected making it in any of them.

 

EDIT: Since I'm still relatively new to the board, if you guys already follow this site pretty regularly my bad. GBR

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Eight big ten teams show up on there, five in the dance. That's about right, I think. NU can compete with all those on the list after the first two, I think.

bigred4

bigred4

Posted
Posted

The biggest issue we will have is lack of quality wins.  Really there are 2 maybe 3 left in the regular season (@Purdue, Mich, @MInny).  That is why the Kansas game was so big.  Will probably take at least 21 wins to get in which is definitely doable with the schedule.

aphilso1

aphilso1

Posted
Posted
  On 12/28/2017 at 10:30 PM, bigred4 said:

The biggest issue we will have is lack of quality wins.  Really there are 2 maybe 3 left in the regular season (@Purdue, Mich, @MInny).  That is why the Kansas game was so big.  Will probably take at least 21 wins to get in which is definitely doable with the schedule.

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Yeah, but no bad losses either.  How many bubble teams can say they have zero losses to +100 RPI teams?  Because if we do get to around 10 or 11 conference wins, and everyone else basically performs as expected (other than losing to Nebraska), then we've got a real chance at having no losses outside the top 100 and a solid overall record.  That IMO should be enough to dance.  Well, assuming we don't have an Incarnate Word game tonight anyway.

bigred4

bigred4

Posted
Posted (edited)
  On 12/29/2017 at 2:28 PM, aphilso1 said:

 

Yeah, but no bad losses either.  How many bubble teams can say they have zero losses to +100 RPI teams?  Because if we do get to around 10 or 11 conference wins, and everyone else basically performs as expected (other than losing to Nebraska), then we've got a real chance at having no losses outside the top 100 and a solid overall record.  That IMO should be enough to dance.  Well, assuming we don't have an Incarnate Word game tonight anyway.

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True.  Also the committee is no longer ranking wins by top 50, 100 etc.  They have 4 "tiers" that are different based on home and away games.  Will be interesting to see how that will affect teams compared to the old system.  Right now 4 of our losses are Tier 1 and the other is Tier 2.  None of our wins are Tier 1, and 1 is Tier 2.

Edited by bigred4
kleitus

kleitus

Posted
Posted

Talk to me after purdue -- win or lose.

 

It is a tough matchup... We dont necessarily have to win just make it interesting for most of the game.

 

I want to see what we do.  That may sound simplistic but... Let it all hang out there boys.  Nobody giving us a shot any way... Why not?

HuskerActuary

HuskerActuary

Posted
Posted
  On 1/3/2018 at 5:21 AM, TimSmiles said:

beating purdue would safely put us in the field assuming we get to 19-20 wins.

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Definitely not. Guys, our SOS is going to drag us down if we end up around the 20 win mark. Don't you remember feeling great when the conference schedules were released saying that we got a pretty good deal out of it? The flip side of that is needing more wins (alongside our non-conference SOS which is also not good). I think 22 wins is necessary to feel decent about chances, 23 wins would be a lock. 21 = out.

jayschool

jayschool

Posted
Posted
  On 1/3/2018 at 1:27 PM, HuskerActuary said:

Definitely not. Guys, our SOS is going to drag us down if we end up around the 20 win mark. Don't you remember feeling great when the conference schedules were released saying that we got a pretty good deal out of it? The flip side of that is needing more wins (alongside our non-conference SOS which is also not good). I think 22 wins is necessary to feel decent about chances, 23 wins would be a lock. 21 = out.

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Not gonna argue math with an actuary. But to clarify, are you saying that a 12-6 conference mark (which would get us to 21 wins BEFORE the conference tourney) is not going to be good enough unless we win one in the tournament? In short, does your 22-win projection include whatever happens in the tournament?

colhusker

colhusker

Posted
Posted
  On 1/3/2018 at 1:27 PM, HuskerActuary said:

Definitely not. Guys, our SOS is going to drag us down if we end up around the 20 win mark. Don't you remember feeling great when the conference schedules were released saying that we got a pretty good deal out of it? The flip side of that is needing more wins (alongside our non-conference SOS which is also not good). I think 22 wins is necessary to feel decent about chances, 23 wins would be a lock. 21 = out.

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Well if Kansas would stop losing and help a former conference foe out.

kleitus

kleitus

Posted
Posted

12-6 would put us as a first round bye in the b1g tourney.

 

Odds are, the committee looks past the rpi at that point and takes us because the b1g likely has 5-6 teams.

 

11-7 might do it with a top 4 finish.

 

He is right with the math I think but more goes into it than rpi. Not much more... But more.

huskerbaseball13

huskerbaseball13

Posted
Posted
  On 1/3/2018 at 1:49 PM, kleitus said:

12-6 would put us as a first round bye in the b1g tourney.

 

Odds are, the committee looks past the rpi at that point and takes us because the b1g likely has 5-6 teams.

 

11-7 might do it with a top 4 finish.

 

He is right with the math I think but more goes into it than rpi. Not much more... But more.

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The Big Ten is not going to do us much favors in terms of RPI this year.  It's probably crucial we beat teams like Rutgers/Iowa/Indiana.  With that said, I can't imagine we get left out of we find a way to win 11 Big Ten games in the regular season.  Last nights game was huge as I think we will be a very tough out at home.  Probably won't happen but I don't see why this team couldn't win 8 Big Ten games at home. 

49r

49r

Posted
Posted (edited)
  On 1/3/2018 at 1:49 PM, kleitus said:

12-6 would put us as a first round bye in the b1g tourney.

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12-6 gets us a double bye easily.  Last year Minnesota got a double bye (fourth place finish) with an 11-7 record.  Illinois finished 9th and got a first round bye with an 8-10 record.

 

17mbbtournamentbracket.pdf

Edited by 49r
HuskerActuary

HuskerActuary

Posted
Posted
  On 1/3/2018 at 1:33 PM, jayschool said:

Not gonna argue math with an actuary. But to clarify, are you saying that a 12-6 conference mark (which would get us to 21 wins BEFORE the conference tourney) is not going to be good enough unless we win one in the tournament? In short, does your 22-win projection include whatever happens in the tournament?

Expand  

Yes, that is what I'm saying. 22 wins including the conference tournament. I could be too aggressive with this thinking but am just not seeing many quality wins otherwise on the resume.

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