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Donkey

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Donkey last won the day on May 9 2014

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  1. Donkey

    Nebraska Bubble Watch

    Remaining Games: Quad 1 record: 2-4 Home: tOSU; Wisconsin; Maryland; Minnesota; Northwestern; Purdue; Iowa Away: Rutgers; Illinois, Purdue; PSU; Michigan; MSU Conference Record: 3-4 (2-1 home; 1-3 road). This link has all of the Quad 1 wins last year by school. https://herosports.com/college-basketball/bracketology-ncaa-team-sheet-quadrant-1-wins-michigan-ahah 4 Quad 1 wins seems to be the tourney bubble with 5 of 9 getting into the tournament. Georgia and Baylor had losing conference records. Marquette was identified by the committee, with Notre Dame, as the next two out. USC was likely the victim of a bad conference. Of the 5 of got in, Arizona, Gonzaga won their respective conference tournaments. of the remaining 3 at large qualifiers, Wichita State, Clemson, For the most part 5 Quad 1 wins gets you into the tourney. Oklahoma St (5 wins) and LSU (6 wins) were the only schools with more Quad 1 wins who were left out of the tourney, likely because both has losing conference records. I really believe the committee let Oklahoma (6 wins) in with a losing record because it did not want to look bad after listing Oklahoma in the early power rankings. Oddly enough, all of the at large play-in games were between schools with 3 Quad 1 wins. Syracuse, UCLA, and Arizona St seem to be rewarded for their strong non-conference records while St. Bonaventure had a 8 and 12 game winning streak during the season. Right now, Iowa, MSU, Michigan, Purdue (twice), Wisconsin, and Maryland are potential Quad 1 wins. 3-4 in those games and 5-0 in the remaining games (8-4 total) would leave Nebraska at 12-8 in the conference and safely in the tourney. I could see a scenario of 11-9 getting Nebraska into the tourney provided the additional loss results from a Quad 1 game.
  2. Donkey

    Nebraska Bubble Watch

    2 2 Michigan Big Ten 17-0 3-0 2-0 12-0 0-0 7 7 Michigan St. Big Ten 15-2 4-1 2-1 9-0 0-0 10 10 Nebraska Big Ten 13-4 2-3 2-1 8-0 1-0 17 20 Purdue Big Ten 11-6 1-4 2-2 8-0 0-0 18 17 Maryland Big Ten 15-3 3-1 1-0 11-2 0-0 20 19 Wisconsin Big Ten 11-6 3-3 2-1 6-2 0-0 27 28 Iowa Big Ten 14-3 1-2 3-0 10-1 0-0 31 30 Indiana Big Ten 12-5 1-4 1-0 10-1 0-0 36 35 Ohio St. Big Ten 12-4 3-2 1-0 8-2 0-0 48 45 Minnesota Big Ten 13-3 1-2 4-0 8-1 0-0 58 58 Northwestern Big Ten 10-7 0-3 2-1 8-3 0-0 83 81 Penn St. Big Ten 7-10 1-5 1-2 5-3 0-0 126 125 Illinois Big Ten 4-12 0-4 0-4 4-4 0-0 131 113 Rutgers Big Ten 8-8 1-5 0-0 7-3 0-0 Remaining Games: Home: MSU; tOSU; Wisconsin; Maryland; Minnesota; Northwestern; Purdue; Iowa Away: Rutgers; Illinois, Purdue; PSU; Michigan; MSU Conference Record: 3-3 (2-0 home; 1-3 road). My original calculations had losing both Michigan State games. This Michigan State game could be huge for momentum as the remaining schedule is favorable until the last (back-to-back) road games against Michigan State and Michigan (followed by a closeout home game against Iowa). The Purdue road game could be the difference between 4-6 and 5-5. Depending on tonight's results, I now can see a 13-7 or 14-6 conference record. I like playing Rutgers after a tough Michigan State game.
  3. Donkey

    Nebraska Bubble Watch

    3 3 Michigan Big Ten 15-0 2-0 2-0 11-0 0-0 7 7 Michigan St. Big Ten 13-2 3-1 2-1 8-0 0-0 15 15 Nebraska Big Ten 11-4 1-3 2-1 7-0 1-0 17 17 Wisconsin Big Ten 11-4 3-2 2-1 6-1 0-0 20 20 Indiana Big Ten 12-3 1-3 1-0 10-0 0-0 22 22 Purdue Big Ten 9-5 0-3 2-2 7-0 0-0 29 29 Ohio St. Big Ten 12-2 3-0 1-0 8-2 0-0 32 32 Maryland Big Ten 12-3 2-1 1-0 9-2 0-0 35 35 Iowa Big Ten 12-3 0-2 3-0 9-1 0-0 38 38 Minnesota Big Ten 12-2 1-2 4-0 7-0 0-0 56 56 Northwestern Big Ten 10-5 0-2 2-1 8-2 0-0 76 75 Penn St. Big Ten 7-8 1-4 1-2 5-2 0-0 125 126 Illinois Big Ten 4-11 0-4 0-4 4-3 0-0 135 135 Rutgers Big Ten 7-6 1-3 0-0 6-3 0-0 Remaining road games: Indiana, Rutgers, Illinois, Purdue, Penn State, MSU, Michigan. I wonder if games at Rutgers and Illinois may give the team enough confidence to win at Purdue. Still sticking to my 12-8 prediction.
  4. Donkey

    Nebraska Bubble Watch

    Purdue is higher ranked than Maryland right now. Nebraska only dropped 4 places in the NET after losing to Maryland. Win or lose, the SOS is in our favor. It’s too early to discuss seeding. I just want to get in. 3 3 Michigan Big Ten 13-0 2-0 2-0 9-0 0-0 7 9 Michigan St. Big Ten 12-2 2-1 2-1 8-0 0-0 14 10 Nebraska Big Ten 11-3 1-2 2-1 7-0 1-0 15 14 Wisconsin Big Ten 10-3 2-2 2-1 6-0 0-0 18 19 Ohio St. Big Ten 12-1 3-0 1-0 8-1 0-0 21 21 Indiana Big Ten 11-2 1-2 1-0 9-0 0-0 30 30 Purdue Big Ten 8-5 0-3 2-2 6-0 0-0 32 42 Maryland Big Ten 11-3 1-1 1-0 9-2 0-0 35 36 Iowa Big Ten 11-2 0-1 3-0 8-1 0-0 52 50 Minnesota Big Ten 11-2 0-2 4-0 7-0 0-0 60 54 Northwestern Big Ten 9-5 0-2 2-1 7-2 0-0 74 77 Penn St. Big Ten 7-6 1-3 1-2 5-1 0-0 124 129 Illinois Big Ten 4-9 0-2 0-4 4-3 0-0 127 126 Rutgers Big Ten 7-5 1-3 0-0 6-2 0-
  5. Thought I would start a thread to discuss Nebraska's chances of making the tournament. As some may remember, I was not high on Nebraska getting into the tournament last year mostly due to the lack of Quad 1 wins and the BIG being down. Losses to Illinois and Penn State really impacted Nebraska last year combined with no Quad 1 wins. This year, I feel the exact opposite. Currently, Nebraska is 11-3 with 3 Quad 1 losses. Based on comments made by the selection committee last year, I got the impression a Quad 1 loss seemed to hold equal weight to a Quad 3 win. Looking forward, I see Nebraska getting in with a 12-8 BIG record regardless of BIG tourney outcome. How we get there? 1. 3 road wins: Move on from Minnesota and Maryland. MUST WIN: Illinois, Rutgers, and Penn State. A road win against any of the remaining teams likely will be a Quad 1 win. 2. 9-1 home record: very doable. Nebraska tends to play well at home over the years. Just need to make sure the loss is to a Quad 1 team. The remaining road schedule is very rough, but should help the SOS component of the NET. Really, the more road wins, the better.
  6. http://www.espn.com/nba/story/_/id/25015812/g-league-offer-professional-path-elite-prospects-not-wanting-go-one-done-route-ncaa This could wreak havoc on college basketball rosters. Its not clear whether these contracts are available to kids who have already signed their LOI. Picture Kentucky signing a full class in November only to lose them all to the G League (plus other players declaring early). That being said, I think this route is the right way to go.
  7. This reasoning reminds me of a certain football player.
  8. Donkey

    Practice Countdown

    Hearing the practices are going well. Team is really focused and Thomas Allen has really stepped up. Seems Chan is equal to (or better than) Jordy offensively (if that means anything) but have not heard about Chan defensively.
  9. Donkey

    RIP RPI

    Let's be fair. The quadrant system sets the standard with how wins are categorized based off of the ratings systems (now NET, formerly RPI). In previous years, valuing wins was subjective. Emphasis each year was placed on different arguments such as non-conference record, perceived conference strength, record over the last ten games, conference finish. Every year the litmus test would change. Last year things were more standardized (which screwed Nebraska). Schools like Oklahoma, whether intentional or not, took advantage of the new system for their benefit even though their final record was problematic. The smartest thing the SEC and Big 12 did last year was schedule a number of match ups in February. Their respective conference RPIs increased and it really helped their schools overall. The BIG should schedule a number of marquee match ups Super Bowl weekend at neutral locations (e.g. dome football stadiums) for the same reason. Win or lose, the feature neutral court games will not hurt either school. I would also schedule marquee mid-major games on neutral courts as well (Nevada at Vegas, Gonzaga or St. Mary's in Portland, San Diego St in LA, etc.). That way if you lose, the hit won't be as bad. I agree this new system will screw over mid-majors and small schools. If I were the AAC, Mountain West, A-10, or CUSA, I would fill my entire schedule with road games at P5/Big East schools. If they were smart, I would take the top 2-3 schools from each mid-major conference and host a tournament around Christmas. Get in around 3-4 games with good mid-major schools, and they might see their chances for 1-2 at large bids go up.
  10. Donkey

    Iowa

    Did you see him in 1994? That team is considered the greatest AAU team of all time with Bryant, Vince Carter, Rip Hamilton, and Tim Thomas all playing together.
  11. Donkey

    Mixed Blessing? Lunchtime musing

    Good points, but I wonder if Gallegos' graduating had more of an impact than realized. Even though Gallegos did not put up the numbers his senior year like he did his junior year, he still was a legitimate scoring threat. Coaches had to game plan for him. Also, Gallegos was a 3pt threat which opened the floor for Petteway and Shields. Also consider that Pitchford, another 3pt threat went from .410 to .289 from behind the arc. Teams were just not as afraid of Nebraska's 3pt shooting in 2014-2015. That clogged the offense. Leslee Smith's injury also made an impact. There was no offense and limited defense in the post with Hammond (true frosh, needed a year in the weight room), Rivers (undersized), and Moses (knees). For 2018-2019, Gill's loss is somewhat mitigated as he seemed to wear down as the season concluded. The offense improved when Gill was shooting well. Evan Taylor was solid off the bench and it will be interesting to see who can hold down that role. However, like in 2014-2015, it really comes down to whether 3pt shooting stays the same/improves instead of regressing.
  12. While those things matter, (and Louisville has them) a good number of schools can compete with Louisville in those areas and a great number of them would love to have the intangibles I listed.
  13. Pretty much. A "down" year for a school like Louisville is to not make it to the Sweet 16 (which Pitino did 8 times in his career).
  14. 1. Coaching stability. Louisville has had 2 coaches in 46 years. Both Crum and Pitino had bad seasons but never worried about getting fired. The fans are actually patient out there. 2. Metropolitan area: Louisville is the 14th biggest metropolitan area in the country with direct flights all over the country. 3. NBA arena. With no NBA team to compete against. Heck, Louisville is the big show in town. 4. Solid non-conference schedule. A guaranteed game against Kentucky every year with frequent match ups against Indiana. Also, the local mid-major schools (WKU, Murray St, Southern Ill, etc.) help the RPI. Louisville and WKU play almost every year (while Kentucky will do everything it can to avoid WKU). 5. Central location. Chicago, St. Louis, Nashville are manageable drives away. There are daily direct flights to Washington DC and the New England area (e.g. access to lots of prep schools). 6. Knowledgeable fan base. I lived in Kentucky for a few years and found the locals to be very knowledge in basketball (without regard to whether they were Kentucky or Louisville fans). I have heard the stories of Indiana residents and their fascination with basketball and have been more impressed with Kentuckians. 7. ACC. Always a huge draw for coaches and players.
  15. Donkey

    Redshirt

    I agree it will be less common, but very few guys were redshirt over the last 15-16 years. Miles has only redshirted Sergej and Fuller the entire time he has been here. Gallegos, McCray, and Edwards (maybe Myles Holley) were the only recruits who redshirted for Doc. I remember Doc complaining about losing recruits who refused to redshirt and basically stopped pushing redshirts afterward. Gallegos, if memory serves correct, requested the redshirt between his sophomore and junior years. It paid off well for him. I also think saving redshirts is a good idea to protect against injuries. If the kid gets hurt 1/4 of the way through the season, he should be able to use the redshirt there. Always felt bad for McCray when he lost a year after only playing 3 games.
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