NCAA Tournament Watch

[Vinny]

1 hour ago, hskr4life said:

Did You Know?

 

Every team to win the national championship in the KenPom era has two main criteria that they meet…

 

Top 40 in Adj O Efficiency 

AND

Top 25 in Adj D Efficiency 

 

Nebraska’s numbers?

AdjO - 42

AdjD- 26

 

We’re so close to meeting the criteria for both those metrics it’s crazy.

Okay, I’ve seen this recently and wondered if those are the numbers heading into the tournament, or at the end of the season? Because six straight neutral site wins against quality opponents is going to help your metrics.

[Nebrasketball1979]

4 hours ago, HuskerBB said:

Not sure if this is the place to put this  but was curious so looked up our seeding in each of our NCAA tournament appearances and thought I would share:

 

         Seed    Opponent
1986    9       Western Kentucky
1991    3       Xavier
1992    8       Connecticut
1993    10    New Mexico State
1994    6      Penn
1998    11     Arkansas
2014    11     Baylor

 

So only been the higher seeded team 3 of the seven times - and probably only a clear favorite in 1991 and 1994.    Other interesting thing I noticed was that until Baylor in 2014 all of the teams that we lost to got beat in the next round.   Baylor beating Creighton made them the first team to beat us in the tourney and go on to make the Sweet 16.    (Of course we also have never played a top 4 seed in the first round that would be favored to make the Sweet 16).

 

 

We are undefeated as a 7 seed so that will be my hope come selection Sunday!

[Nebrasketball1979]

4 hours ago, hskr4life said:

Did You Know?

 

Every team to win the national championship in the KenPom era has two main criteria that they meet…

 

Top 40 in Adj O Efficiency 

AND

Top 25 in Adj D Efficiency 

 

Nebraska’s numbers?

AdjO - 42

AdjD- 26

 

We’re so close to meeting the criteria for both those metrics it’s crazy.

I will be disappointed now if we meet these metrics come Sunday and fall short in the tournament and only make the final four.

[REDZONEDAN]

5 hours ago, HuskerBB said:

Not sure if this is the place to put this  but was curious so looked up our seeding in each of our NCAA tournament appearances and thought I would share:

 

         Seed    Opponent
1986    9       Western Kentucky
1991    3       Xavier
1992    8       Connecticut
1993    10    New Mexico State
1994    6      Penn
1998    11     Arkansas
2014    11     Baylor

 

So only been the higher seeded team 3 of the seven times - and probably only a clear favorite in 1991 and 1994.    Other interesting thing I noticed was that until Baylor in 2014 all of the teams that we lost to got beat in the next round.   Baylor beating Creighton made them the first team to beat us in the tourney and go on to make the Sweet 16.    (Of course we also have never played a top 4 seed in the first round that would be favored to make the Sweet 16).

 

 

I feel like we really should have beaten Arkansas in 1998.  Correct me if I’m wrong, but I felt like we led most of that game, but then got into foul trouble and lost the lead with about 4 or 5 minutes left in the game. Did Lue foul out of that game?

I sure wish Lue came back for his senior year because we wouldn’t be talking about still trying to get our first tourney win.

[lang]

12 minutes ago, REDZONEDAN said:

I feel like we really should have beaten Arkansas in 1998.  Correct me if I’m wrong, but I felt like we led most of that game, but then got into foul trouble and lost the lead with about 4 or 5 minutes left in the game. Did Lue foul out of that game?

I sure wish Lue came back for his senior year because we wouldn’t be talking about still trying to get our first tourney win.

That’s what I remember too…up most of the game.  Some turnovers and bad fortune late to Nolan Richardson’s club.  I’m trying to test my memory tonight… regulars that year -> Lue, Belcher, Flourance, Hamilton, Markowski? Chad Johnson? Rodney Fields ?…need some help, anyone ?

[lang]

5 hours ago, Cazzie22 said:

Western Kentucky loss was hampered by Hoppen’s absence and Moe Iba’s brief post game presser.

I’m gonna be a little contrary on that…others can correct if I’m wrong.  You are correct pre season Moe and the squad got caught practicing early.  Anyhow, went onto have a pretty good season and then Hoppen got hurt out at Colorado with 6-10 games to go.  The guys regrouped and earned that NCAA bid.  Some of the guys on that team would have been-> Carr, Harvey Marshall, Ronnie Smith, Claude Renfro, Bill Jackman, John Matzke, Anthony Bailous ?  Need help again, anyone ?  Too lazy to look it up and that’s not as fun.

[BugeaterZ]

3 minutes ago, lang said:

I’m gonna be a little contrary on that…others can correct if I’m wrong.  You are correct pre season Moe and the squad got caught practicing early.  Anyhow, went onto have a pretty good season and then Hoppen got hurt out at Colorado with 6-10 games to go.  The guys regrouped and earned that NCAA bid.  Some of the guys on that team would have been-> Carr, Harvey Marshall, Ronnie Smith, Claude Renfro, Bill Jackman, John Matzke, Anthony Bailous ?  Need help again, anyone ?  Too lazy to look it up and that’s not as fun.

Bernard Day took on much of the scoring after Hoppen's injury. Did a nice job scoring in the post as a very undersized center

[100 words or less]

30 minutes ago, REDZONEDAN said:

I feel like we really should have beaten Arkansas in 1998.  Correct me if I’m wrong, but I felt like we led most of that game, but then got into foul trouble and lost the lead with about 4 or 5 minutes left in the game. Did Lue foul out of that game?

I sure wish Lue came back for his senior year because we wouldn’t be talking about still trying to get our first tourney win.

https://www.cbsnews.com/news/arkansas-nails-nebraska-74-65/

 

Hamilton fouled out and Belcher had 4 PFs.

[cornfed24-7]

46 minutes ago, Nebrasketball1979 said:

I will be disappointed now if we meet these metrics come Sunday and fall short in the tournament and only make the final four.

I'm cool with not meeting the those metrics and being an outlier

[throwback]

55 minutes ago, BugeaterZ said:

Bernard Day took on much of the scoring after Hoppen's injury. Did a nice job scoring in the post as a very undersized center

Don't forget 6-5 Chris Logan stepping in and playing center, too. I want to say he had double-figure rebounds in the NCAA tourney game vs WKU.

 

[BugeaterZ]

I confess I did forget Chris Logan. I was 11 and my Nebrasketball Fandom began in Hoppen's freshman year. I was devastated by his injury.

 

I also loved keeping score at the games and Logan must not have scored enough to register in my pre-teen brain.

[hhcmatt]

First half of the game 

 

 

[lang]

4 minutes ago, throwback said:

Don't forget 6-5 Chris Logan stepping in and playing center, too. I want to say he had double-figure rebounds in the NCAA tourney game vs WKU.

 

Bernard Day and Chris Logan !!  Nicely done fellas.  I missed two huge pieces there.  Day was a beast of a player his two years here.  Both Juco’s, both played bigger than they were ( had to ). 

[cipsucks]

1 hour ago, lang said:

I’m gonna be a little contrary on that…others can correct if I’m wrong.  You are correct pre season Moe and the squad got caught practicing early.  Anyhow, went onto have a pretty good season and then Hoppen got hurt out at Colorado with 6-10 games to go.  The guys regrouped and earned that NCAA bid.  Some of the guys on that team would have been-> Carr, Harvey Marshall, Ronnie Smith, Claude Renfro, Bill Jackman, John Matzke, Anthony Bailous ?  Need help again, anyone ?  Too lazy to look it up and that’s not as fun.

 

I'm not sure we want to take a walk down memory lane.  Moe Iba put Bill Jackman in the fetal position offensively.  Danny helped him recover the next year.  Of course, if Hoppen doesn't get hurt, we probably win a tournament game.  None of that matters now.  We win games in the tournament this year!

[throwback]

6 hours ago, Navin R. Johnson said:

 

I remember the Penn game being very frustrating.  I was not expecting much from the 1998 team as I was a little surprised they made the tournament and they almost pulled that one out.  The 1991 team of course was the biggest disappointment.  The others were like, okay we lost.

That Penn game was rough - I remember greeting the team at the Bob Sunday evening after they got back from KC with the Big 8 Trophy - had to be several thousand people there. They announced the matchups while the team was bussing back from KC, and I want to say we had to play Penn on Thursday. In hindsight, we clearly had to put too much into winning the Big 8 Tourney to bounce back that fast, but it sure didn't feel that way on that Sunday. Thought we were heading to the Sweet 16 that year for sure. Plus that team was just up and down all year. When they were on, they were as good as anyone. But, like happened a lot in Nee's time here, there were a lot of eggs laid for no good reason.

 

I was drowning my sorrows in a sports bar for the UConn game, don't remember much about that one other than we got blown out.

 

New Mexico State just felt awful - really thought we'd win that one in an upset. I think they're still dunking on us. I thought for sure that NMST team might make an Elite 8 run after what they did to us. Of course they got smoked in the next game I'm pretty sure. Pretty sure they ended up on probation too.

 

And of course the loss to Xavier was unreal. That 1991 team was so good, but X's guards were too quick for us. Trailed nearly the entire way and never could get over the hump. Absolute stunner.

 

I'm pretty sure that Arkansas game in 1998 was the only one out of the seven games where we had a lead most of the way, but it just slipped away late.

 

And the WKU game wasn't even on TV in Lincoln. We got switched over to that game for the last few minutes after whatever game we were assigned on TV was over. I think that might've been the first or second year of the 64-team NCAA tourney from 53. Was really hoping we'd get a shot at playing Kentucky. Everything about that season and about how Moe had his resignation letter ready after the game was so surreal. With the injury to Hoppen and how undersized they were, it was an absolute miracle that team made the NCAAs.

 

[brfrad]

This has been rough the last 2 weeks.  Barely any games, and waiting to see where we are seeded and playing after the BTT.  I am like a kid around Christmas time wanting desperately to open my present.  5 days left!

[Chuck Taylor]

15 hours ago, Vinny said:

Okay, I’ve seen this recently and wondered if those are the numbers heading into the tournament, or at the end of the season? Because six straight neutral site wins against quality opponents is going to help your metrics.

I think they're at the end of the season, after the tournament, which makes it somewhat misleading. 

For example, Baylor entered the 2021 tournament 3 in offense and 46 in defense, but finished 2 and 25 to meet the metric standard. 

https://www.barttorvik.com/trank-time-machine.php?date=20210405&offseason=0&year=2021

 

I'd bet 2011 UConn didn't have the metrics going into the tournament either since they entered the tournament with 9 losses. The Torvik time machine didn't go back that far. 

[Vinny]

39 minutes ago, Chuck Taylor said:

I think they're at the end of the season, after the tournament, which makes it somewhat misleading. 

For example, Baylor entered the 2021 tournament 3 in offense and 46 in defense, but finished 2 and 25 to meet the metric standard. 

https://www.barttorvik.com/trank-time-machine.php?date=20210405&offseason=0&year=2021

 

I'd bet 2011 UConn didn't have the metrics going into the tournament either since they entered the tournament with 9 losses. The Torvik time machine didn't go back that far. 

Yeah that kind of changes the narrative with the stats being after a bunch of good wins. Of course your numbers are gonna look better. But, at least for filling out your bracket, might be a good place to start for picking your final four teams.

 

Also, where I had read it, I thought they said that 2011 UCONN team was the lone exception.  So you’re likely right there, and they may not have even had these metrics after the tournament.

[jimmykc]

Lunardi thinks we will be sent to the East region, Katz to the West and CBS Sports to the Midwestern region. Which probably means we will go to the South. 

[hskr4life]

Here’s our updated team sheet heading into the B1G tournament.  Peep those result based metrics which align with the 6-7 seed range.  Our predictives still align with the 8-9 seed range however.  Non-Con SOS has improved from about 325ish to under 300 now!

 

 

[hhcmatt]

The more time passes, the closer we get to overtaking Northwestern in bracketmatrix

Possible that the B1G tournament might dictate who gets ranked higher by the committee though it's also possible they're being overrated here.

 

[TourneyBound]

Boy Id gladly play Oklahoma anywhere...  I know they dont have Mccollum at the moment but Id gladly take my chances against them anywhere..

[hskr4life]

We might move ahead of Texas now and KSU seals Q1 status!

[jdw]

If DePaul wins the big East tournament should they be a one bid league.

[Nebrasketball1979]

5 minutes ago, jdw said:

If DePaul wins the big East tournament should they be a one bid league.

Ha, yeah, you don't have to worry about that.  This is a referendum on Villanova... DePaul is awful and that's putting it very kindly!