NCAA Tournament Watch

[kldm64]

Still have us projected as a 10 seed at the moment.  As much as our road plays sucks, we still have a pretty solid resume some some impressive wins.

 

http://www.bracketmatrix.com/

[hskr4life]

The Maryland loss dropped us about 1-2 seed lines in most brackets.  A Wisco win would move us back up 1-2 seed lines in most brackets.  
 

It also helps that the bubble is softttt.  There are so many bubble teams because no one is stepping up and claiming their spot… us included.

 

Bubble teams just keep squandering opportunities and bubble teams in mid-major conferences are losing games they shouldn’t.  (Drake, Memphis, FAU has been close, Gonzaga)

[Handy Johnson]

If we’re to be taken “Seriously” as a Team & a REAL Factor in March you HAVE to beat Wisconsin. Limping into the Tournament & getting Housed in the first round is a History I prefer not to revisit. 

[TheGov21]

I hope I'm dead wrong, but I just can't see this team making the NCAA tournament. 

 

You can't lose every conference road game and get in. They'd basically have to win out at home and that is going to be extremely tough to do.  There are some winnable road games, but what has this team showed us that will change?

 

I hope I'm wrong.

[AGHANSEN]

A team that was similar to us this year was last years Maryland Terrapins. 
The Terps were 20-11 at the end of the regular season, 11-9 in conference, but 1-9 on the road and 10-0 at home.

Maryland was not good on the road. 

In some of those road games the Terps got beat by 10+.

Maryland also went on to beat WV in the tourney as an 8 seed.

 

If the Huskers can get one road win, that should be good enough.

 

 

[Fullbacksympathy]

If we win out at home I think we probably get in due to the KState win.  That's two top 10 wins against #1 and #6 to go along with a solid overall record.  I said this before but I think Wiscy is the best team in the B1G.  Beating them would be more impressive than Purdue.  

 

Lose to Wiscy and we've gotta get a road win for sure.  

[The Polish Rifle]

2 hours ago, AGHANSEN said:

A team that was similar to us this year was last years Maryland Terrapins. 
The Terps were 20-11 at the end of the regular season, 11-9 in conference, but 1-9 on the road and 10-0 at home.

Maryland was not good on the road. 

In some of those road games the Terps got beat by 10+.

Maryland also went on to beat WV in the tourney as an 8 seed.

 

If the Huskers can get one road win, that should be good enough.

 

 

10-10 in conf we’re bubbly. 11 wins in league, like Maryland last year, we’re just worried about seeding. 

[Husker4theSpurs]

This might not be the year to expect to make it at 11-9 in conference ... not that conference record matters necessarily. I think we have to win one of the next three and get at least one road win and avoid bad losses at home to make it. But as stated above, a lot dependent on other teams.

[HuskerFever]

4 hours ago, TheGov21 said:

I hope I'm dead wrong, but I just can't see this team making the NCAA tournament. 

 

You can't lose every conference road game and get in. They'd basically have to win out at home and that is going to be extremely tough to do.  There are some winnable road games, but what has this team showed us that will change?

 

I hope I'm wrong.

 

Our 2013-2014 NCAA tournament team was 2-8 on the road. And even lost to UMass and UAB. And lost in the first round of the Big Ten tournament. They still made the dance.

 

That was a home heavy team with a few big wins. And that's where we stand with this team today. More work to do, but also not far off.

[Husker4theSpurs]

That team also had a ton of steam coming into the tournament, which we are unlikely to have given just the level of competition down the stretch of our schedule. This isn't going to be the year to back your way into the tourney given the lack of strength of the Big Ten.

[HuskerFever]

11 minutes ago, Husker4theSpurs said:

That team also had a ton of steam coming into the tournament, which we are unlikely to have given just the level of competition down the stretch of our schedule. This isn't going to be the year to back your way into the tourney given the lack of strength of the Big Ten.

 

That's certainly a consideration. It all comes down to what the flavor of the month is for the committee this year.

 

One year it's about being hot going into the tournament, another year "a win is a win whether in November or March". One year it's "we consider injuries on a team" another year that doesn't carry much weight. One year it's "can they win on the road" another year it's about your full schedule of wins. One year you can be in the top 4 of a P5 conference and get passed over by #5.

 

That 2014 team had the same amount of losses we have now, but a whole month earlier. And nearly twice as many losses by the end of January. Sure, we need to bottle up some more of that Gary, Tominaga, Hoiberg, Mast magic more consistently. But we're in a much better spot right now than our last tournament team was at this moment. A bird in the hand... Now it's up to this team to do something with it.

[Husker4theSpurs]

12 minutes ago, HuskerFever said:

 

That's certainly a consideration. It all comes down to what the flavor of the month is for the committee this year.

 

One year it's about being hot going into the tournament, another year "a win is a win whether in November or March". One year it's "we consider injuries on a team" another year that doesn't carry much weight. One year it's "can they win on the road" another year it's about your full schedule of wins. One year you can be in the top 4 of a P5 conference and get passed over by #5.

 

That 2014 team had the same amount of losses we have now, but a whole month earlier. And nearly twice as many losses by the end of January. Sure, we need to bottle up some more of that Gary, Tominaga, Hoiberg, Mast magic more consistently. But we're in a much better spot right now than our last tournament team was at this moment. A bird in the hand... Now it's up to this team to do something with it.

I agree it feels random, but one thing that will hurt us is that we don't have a lot of chances for quality wins after these next 3 games. That wasn't true of the 2014 team, but I agree with your points.

[Bugeaters1]

 

[hskr4life]

Even Launardi still has us in (Amie's bracket above).  A win Thursday would be huge and can't be overstated.  

[AuroranHusker]

1 hour ago, hskr4life said:

Even Launardi still has us in (Amie's bracket above).  A win Thursday would be huge and can't be overstated.  

 

It's the last remaining Q1 opportunity at home. Yes, I think it's basically a must-win at this point. And get at least a B1G road dub while holding serve at home. A lot to ask based on the debacle on College Park, but this team is fairly resilient based on how they performed after earlier heartbreaking losses, particularly that win over Izzo after falling apart at Minny. We shall see, the rollercoaster ride continues. GBR

[hskr4life]

Alas, the wheels appear to be starting to fall off in Manhattan.  KSU after their strong B12 start against the bottom of the conference has now lost three in a row.  While they were all to ranked teams and the first two were on the road, they got blown out of the water by 20 at home last night against Oklahoma.  That drops them to 82 in the NET and our win moves to a Q2.

 

They have a possible get right game (though it’ll be tough) against OSU in Stillwater this weekend before facing KU, BYU, TCU, Texas, and BYU in their following 5.

[royalfan]

given whay happened when Collier was on NIT selection group, who knows how many we must get 

[hskr4life]

If you use TRanks “similar résumé’s” feature, you have probably noticed a few things.

 

1. We used to compare heavily to our last NCAA tournament team, but that has since went by the wayside.

 

2. Every team we used to compare to was usually a team that was “in” albeit sometimes a higher seed.

 

3. We’re now about 50/50 in teams that were in and teams that missed as a direct comparison.  This means that we’re starting to get into true bubble territory when compared to past teams.

 

Safe to say our resume could use a boost and tomorrow would be a great boost at that.

 

 

Edited January 31 by hskr4life

[hskr4life]

Also— find it interesting— Memphis is still considered solidly in but looking more bubbly… however their similar resumes are all “miss” outside of a one.

[Ralph Wiggum]

14 hours ago, Bugeaters1 said:

 

 

If that matchup were to happen, someone would be getting their 1st ever NCAA Tournament win [opening round games count, right?]  Boise State is even better at this than we are - 0-9 all time...  https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Boise_State_Broncos_men's_basketball#Postseason_results

[Cazzie22]

6 hours ago, hskr4life said:

Alas, the wheels appear to be starting to fall off in Manhattan.  KSU after their strong B12 start against the bottom of the conference has now lost three in a row.  While they were all to ranked teams and the first two were on the road, they got blown out of the water by 20 at home last night against Oklahoma.  That drops them to 82 in the NET and our win moves to a Q2.

 

They have a possible get right game (though it’ll be tough) against OSU in Stillwater this weekend before facing KU, BYU, TCU, Texas, and BYU in their following 5.

The Big XII is a tough league.  

[Art Vandalay]

2 hours ago, Cazzie22 said:

The Big XII is a tough league.  

But are they really?

 

KU is really the only one who played a tough non con. The rest beat up on easy schedules so it is hard to know how legit they really are. It’ll be interesting to see how the committee slots them.

[hskr4life]

I did see a tweet that the Big 12 had like 4-5 teams with 300+ Non Con SOS and 5-7 with 200+.  Multiple teams had worse Non-Con SOS than us.

[OmahaHusker]

41 minutes ago, hskr4life said:

I did see a tweet that the Big 12 had like 4-5 teams with 300+ Non Con SOS and 5-7 with 200+.  Multiple teams had worse Non-Con SOS than us.

 

Think this is what you're referring to. Pretty crazy. Iowa State and TCU are the two teams in the Big 12 with Non Con SOS's worse than us. Alot of others are pretty bad, though.

 

https://x.com/T_Oglesby22/status/1752743412921409816?s=20

Edited January 31 by OmahaHusker

[HuskerActuary]

6 hours ago, Ralph Wiggum said:

 

If that matchup were to happen, someone would be getting their 1st ever NCAA Tournament win [opening round games count, right?]  Boise State is even better at this than we are - 0-9 all time...  https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Boise_State_Broncos_men's_basketball#Postseason_results

I've always had a fear that we would get our first win in the play-in round. I don't want it to happen that way! Unless we win in the first round, too.