2021-2022 expectations

[Norm Peterson]

I like Dean Smith's result better.

[Fullbacksympathy]

2 hours ago, Norm Peterson said:

At the start of the juco season, you could be forgiven for having doubts about Keisei. But since about the 6th or 7th game, he's been impressively efficient. It makes you go from thinking he'll ride pine and maybe doesn't belong at this level to wondering if maybe he can contribute and contribute a lot.

 

My hangup on Keisei is Trevor Lakes and Jervay Green. Trevor was this 47% 3-pt shooter who couldn't see the floor on a team that desperately needed a couple of shooters. What he did a level or two below did not appear to translate. Similarly, Jervay, who was one of the top 5 juco recruits in the country, simply couldn't get it done at the next level.

 

Is Keisei's high 3-pt% a function of the closer arc in juco ball? Lower caliber of defense? That probably has something to do with it. Will his game translate? That's kind of the question nobody has an answer to yet.

 

I'll tell ya, if he's quick and athletic enough to play defense, his shooting could punch his ticket to playing time. He has a really good platform as a shooter: he has a very compact and repeatable shot; he gets good elevation on his jump; he has a very quick release; and he shoots well off the bounce going either left or right, all of which will  allow him to get shots off without needing a ton of space.

 

He could fall flat on his face like Jervay. Or he could be sneaky good. Only time will tell. But if "sneaky good" ends up being what we get, it'll have a very favorable impact on the W/L numbers.

 

I think Keisei is a different cat than the other two.  Trevor wasn't a D1 player coming out of high school and Jervay couldn't out-athlete D1 players to get to the rim.  Keisei has Thor's IQ with elite, world-class shooting.  He can put it on the floor, dish, and cut as well.  I like Trevor, but he's not a D1 athlete.  It's easy to see he can shoot, but that's him making up for his lack of athleticism.  The only knock on Keisei is his strength at ~165-170lbs., but he's got enough athleticism for D1.  He's the #2 SG and #9 JUCO prospect.  I don't think those are far fetched rankings.  He's also the son of a pro to boot, and those players aren't typically afraid of the moment.  

[Dean Smith]

8 minutes ago, Norm Peterson said:

I like Dean Smith's result better.

The best part of that is it is not conjecture but something that Fred has already made happen.

[hugh42]

3 hours ago, 49r said:

@Norm Peterson I believe they use the same 3 point line in JUCO as in NCAA now.  But even still it doesn't matter much, it looks like Keisei typically likes to jack it up from NBA distance anyway.  (and he's most likely been shooing from the FIBA line his whole life which I believe is what the NCAA uses now)

 

Still...count me firmly among the "believe it when I see it" camp on him.  Like you mentioned earlier Lakes and Green and Kavas should all be cautionary tales about lower division guys not being able to get their shots off in the Big Ten anywhere near as easy as they could before.

 

I'll say I'm cautiously optimistic regarding Tominaga in terms of getting his shot off against better competition. I think a lot of it will have to do with Fred getting him open looks much like what he has done for Lat. The other three guys you mentioned struggled for primarily the same reason IMO. Kavas was too slow and once he discovered this it got between his ears and he struggled to the point of passing up open looks. Green could elevate above his defender so lack of athleticism wasn't an issue. IMO, confidence was again the issue for Green. Lakes should be able to get open looks if Lat can as he has a quicker release than Lat. Again, I think confidence is his main issue. Hopefully Tominaga won't be lacking in that category.

[hhcmatt]

I'll add that Jervay seemed like a Miles combo guard trying to exist in a Hoiberg offense where he didn't dominate the ball because Mack was the superior option.

 

To me the Juco guy that I think of with Keisei is Dru Kuxhausen. 

[millerhusker]

I don't think there's any doubt that, when Keisei is in the game, Hoiberg will get him looks and he'll knock them down at a good clip. Our shooters have consistently gotten great looks game after game over the last two years. But, up until the 6 games or so this year, we couldn't hit the broad side of a barn. 

I just don't think we're going to play 12 guys significant minutes next year, or ever. And I'm not sure who Keisei supplants in the rotation, especially if we add another transfer guard as expected. That doesn't mean he won't ever play. But right now, I'd be pleasantly surprised if he's anything more than a situational minutes type player in his first year here.  

Edited April 7, 2021 by millerhusker

[huskerbill85]

18 wins

[Chuck Taylor]

I would be incredibly disappointed if we don't at least make the NIT.

[tcp]

i just want out of the frigging basement. maybe the occasional stroll out in the open air. 

[HuskerFever]

5 minutes ago, tcp said:

i just want out of the frigging basement. maybe the occasional stroll out in the open air. 

 

Meanwhile, in the Big Ten with all the coaching changes this offseason:

 

[Nebrasketballer]

I believe this team has the potential to finish somewhere between 7-9 in the Big Ten and make the NCAA Tournament.

 

Should be able to get off to a good start next season and rack up some wins in the nonconference and head into conference play with momentum

 

-Bringing back the core of major contributors from last season, so this team won't need to spend half the season just learning how to play together

 

-Derrick Walker won't be suspended for half of the season

 

-Another year of development for Andre after an impressive freshman season

 

-Adding the first 5-star in Nebraska basketball history

 

-Adding multiple shooters to the roster McGowens, Wilcher, Tominaga, Breidenbach

 

-After coaching changes and players transferring, multiple Big Ten opponents will be in complete rebuilding mode, which should present a good opportunity for Nebraska to move up in the league

 

[hskr4life]

40 minutes ago, Nebrasketballer said:

I believe this team has the potential to finish somewhere between 7-9 in the Big Ten and make the NCAA Tournament.

 

 

The only problem with this one might be that, if the league is considered "down"... do we only get 4-6 teams in?

[Nebrasketballer]

9 minutes ago, hskr4life said:

 

The only problem with this one might be that, if the league is considered "down"... do we only get 4-6 teams in?

I guess what I mean is that I believe Nebraska has the potential to make the NCAA Tournament and that they will be one of the last 1-2 teams from the Big Ten to get in.

 

My assumption is that the Big Ten will get 7-9 teams in. If that's the case, then I believe Nebraska will finish in the 7-9 range. If the Big Ten is down enough that the conference only gets 6ish teams into the NCAA Tournament, then I believe enough teams would be taking a step back so that Nebraska would be able to finish in the 5-6 range in that scenario. I do not believe that there is much of a chance that the Big Ten will get fewer than 6 teams into the Tournament.

[HuskerFever]

5 minutes ago, Nebrasketballer said:

I do not believe that there is much of a chance that the Big Ten will get fewer than 6 teams into the Tournament.

 

That's what we said when they selected #1, #2, #3, and #5 into the tournament...

[49r]

On 3/31/2021 at 10:07 AM, 49r said:

I expect to be pissed off at the fans/posters who will inevitably build this team up to be something it's not capable of being in the offseason and who eventually turn into whiny crybabies during the season when the team fails to live up to their unrealistic expectations during the course of the season.

 

That's what my expectations are for the 2021-22 season.

 

It's starting already...

[Norm Peterson]

29 minutes ago, Nebrasketballer said:

I believe this team has the potential to finish somewhere between 7-9 in the Big Ten and make the NCAA Tournament.

 

Should be able to get off to a good start next season and rack up some wins in the nonconference and head into conference play with momentum

 

-Bringing back the core of major contributors from last season, so this team won't need to spend half the season just learning how to play together

 

-Derrick Walker won't be suspended for half of the season

 

-Another year of development for Andre after an impressive freshman season

 

-Adding the first 5-star in Nebraska basketball history

 

-Adding multiple shooters to the roster McGowens, Wilcher, Tominaga, Breidenbach

 

-After coaching changes and players transferring, multiple Big Ten opponents will be in complete rebuilding mode, which should present a good opportunity for Nebraska to move up in the league

 

Going into this past season, I had my doubts about whether we'd be improved at all, and I openly questioned why anyone thought we'd be any better in Hoiberg's 2nd season than we were in his first. For a traditional sunshine pumper, I was decidedly gloomy in my forecast.

 

Some on here tried to rescue me with arguments as to why a virtually-completely overhauled roster in year 2 would be any better than a virtually-completely overhauled roster was in year 1.

 

We know how that turned out.

 

I'm going to take a cautiously optimistic approach this time around.

 

Reasons we were bad before:

 

Hoiberg Year 1:

• A 17-year-old freshman with stone hands beat out anyone else we had to start at center, and he was backed up by undersized true freshman Kevin Cross;
• For a team built around "loving the three" we shot less than 32% from beyond the arc as a team and nobody was good enough from a volume perspective to make at least 50 threes on the year;
• We couldn't rebound for crap (12th in the league);
• We couldn't hit free-throws (13th in the league);
• Chemistry was questionable

Hoiberg Year 2:

• Walker was suspended for half the season and Andre got COVID and so we had to continue to play an 18-year-old with stone hands at center for half the year;
• For a team built around "loving the three" we shot just more than 33% from beyond the arc as a team and nobody was good enough from a volume perspective to make at least 50 threes on the year;
• We still couldn't rebound (last in the league in rebounding margin);
• Still couldn't hit free-throws (again 13th in the league);
• Turned the ball over a lot (last in league in assist:turnover ratio);
• Chemistry was still questionable

Reasons we *might* be better in 21-22:

• Eduardo has a lot of upside and Walker ain't bad. Eduardo comes back as a "seasoned" freshman and has the potential to be a future star. Great length, solid athleticism, good hands. And he's only going to get better as he gets older and adds muscle to his frame, which could be as soon as next season;
• We'll have Walker to start the season;
• We'll play a non-con that should include more of the usual cupcakes that will teach our players how to win;
• The recruits we're bringing in should be a substantial upgrade over the players they replace on the roster;
• We return the core of our top 8 rotation, including basically all of our starters so, for the first time since Hoiberg came here, we'll have some returning experience and won't have to use flash cards to try to remember who's who;
• On paper, we're bringing in some shooters who should move the needle significantly in terms of our team 3-pt%. I'm guessing an aggregate improvement of maybe 3%, which might not sound like much, but would have been good enough to move us to 6th in the league in 3-pt accuracy this past season, and a virtual dead-heat with 4th and 5th place Wisconsin and Ohio State;
• The guys who are likely to have the ball in their hands the most when opponents foul are almost certain to be significantly better FT shooters than their counterparts this past season. In fact, I'm going to go out on a limb and say that Eduardo Andre's bad FT numbers last year were because: 1) he didn't get a lot of opportunities; and 2) it was a team-wide funk. I've seen this kid shoot FTs. He's a natural 70% FT shooter. And I think that's where he'll be when, as a team, we don't see that team-wide funk.

[Nebrasketballer]

1 hour ago, 49r said:

 

It's starting already...

I disagree

[hhcmatt]

The lower your HHCC score, the more grounded you are in your expectations 

[Norm Peterson]

5 hours ago, Nebrasketballer said:

I disagree

OK, offered without commentary:

 

20-21:

 

Banton-T McGowens-Webster

T McGowens-Thorbjarnarson-Webster

Allen-Thorbjarnarson-Stevenson

Mayen-Stevenson-Lakes

Walker-Andre-Ouedraogo

 

21-22

 

T McGowens-Banton-Webster

B McGowens-Tominaga

Wilcher-Banton-T McGowens

Mayen-Breidenbach-Lakes

Walker-Andre

 

Bold denotes player with returning experience

[49r]

4 hours ago, hhcmatt said:

The lower your HHCC score, the more grounded you are in your expectations 

 

[hhcmatt]

33 minutes ago, Bill Self's Toupee said:

2021 - 29 + 9 = 38 (Breidenbach, Kojenets, McGowens, Tominaga, Wilcher, Andre, Banton, Lakes, Mayen, McGowens, Webster, Walker). This averages to 3.17, almost twice the experience from 2019. We are a more experienced Hoiberg team in 2021, and with a full regular (non-Covid) sort of season, I think we can win 14 to 16 games in 2021.  If Thorir returns, the points increase to 44 (3.38 avg).

 

Congrats for making the first post in HHC history where removing Yvan doesn't make the team older.

[kldm64]

I'd be very disappointed if we didn't make the NCAA tournament next year.  Fred has basically flipped the roster 2 years in a row and now we have our top players all returning while adding in key pieces.  And I think the ball movement and team chemistry was much better after Teddy Allen left the team.  The Big 10 is losing a ton of talented players this year so there is no excuse why we shouldn't be able to compete and finish in the top half of the conference with a winning conference record.

[Silverbacked1]

Would love a NCAA win,

 

But could live with a very deep run in the NIT

 

But most of all  MORE FREE RUNZAS 

Edited April 8, 2021 by Silverbacked1

[Fullbacksympathy]

17 hours ago, Norm Peterson said:

OK, offered without commentary:

 

20-21:

 

Banton-T McGowens-Webster

T McGowens-Thorbjarnarson-Webster

Allen-Thorbjarnarson-Stevenson

Mayen-Stevenson-Lakes

Walker-Andre-Ouedraogo

 

21-22

 

T McGowens-Banton-Webster

B McGowens-Tominaga

Wilcher-Banton-T McGowens

Mayen-Breidenbach-Lakes

Walker-Andre

 

Bold denotes player with returning experience

 

It's bizarre to me seeing Banton coming off the bench, but I don't necessarily disagree.  If he's 15lbs heavier and 5% better from 3 next year I think he starts at the 3.  

 

But damn... with Keisei, Wilcher, Wilhelm, and the KU kid... good grief.. the second group could have nights where they stay on the court a LONG time.  

 

 

[Nebrasketballer]

4 minutes ago, LK1 said:

 

It's bizarre to me seeing Banton coming off the bench, but I don't necessarily disagree.  If he's 15lbs heavier and 5% better from 3 next year I think he starts at the 3.  

 

But damn... with Keisei, Wilcher, Wilhelm, and the KU kid... good grief.. the second group could have nights where they stay on the court a LONG time.  

 

 

I would be shocked if Wilcher didn’t start at the 3 spot next season. He’s a much better shooter than Banton and Nebraska is recruiting his 5-star younger brother, so I think we need CJ to be very happy with his situation at Nebraska next season, so that he is all-in when recruiting his brother.