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99% Chance Our Name is Called if We Win out

huskerbaseball13

By huskerbaseball13
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huskerbaseball13

huskerbaseball13

Posted
Posted

Win out in the regular season that is.  That's according to March Boehm who said he spoke with a member of the NCAA selection committee.  Two wins puts us at a 72% chance.  Those numbers seem to be pretty generous...especially the two wins portion but if true we are very good position despite what other outsiders may claim.

royalfan

royalfan

Posted
Posted

If this is graoevine information I find it pretty hard to believe due to the specificity of the 72 percent if we lose a game.  That being said, barring many tourney upsets, this is a little closer to what I think than the pundits think.  

Dead Dog Alley

Dead Dog Alley

Posted
Posted
56 minutes ago, huskerbaseball13 said:

Win out in the regular season that is.  That's according to March Boehm who said he spoke with a member of the NCAA selection committee.  Two wins puts us at a 72% chance.  Those numbers seem to be pretty generous...especially the two wins portion but if true we are very good position despite what other outsiders may claim.

 

As I read it that 72% chance isn't then independent on how they do in the conference tournament.  If you assume a 50% chance of victory in a 4-5 game, and, say, a 98% chance of making it if they win the 4-5 game, then there would be a 46% chance of making it if they lose.

big red22

big red22

Posted
Posted (edited)
38 minutes ago, Lifetimesker said:

So 2-1 down the stretch=72% chance of dancing. This is way better than what we have been hearing. Some say we need to win out and make an appearance in the BIG 10 championship game. UGH!!!!

If we were to win out and make the championship game we would be...

 

25-9 - Overall

14-4 - In Conference

3 wins against Tournament teams

 

We would probably be a 7 seed if this played out... maybe even a 6 seed

Edited by big red22
Norm Peterson

Norm Peterson

Posted
Posted (edited)

Palmer is a 2nd half player.  That's been the case all season long.  He's quiet in the first half; you hardly notice him.  Then, about 10 minutes into the 2nd half, you look up and see he has 15 points and you're like "where the heck did that come from?"

 

Some analyst was quoted somewhere on here recently saying that Palmer is the slowest good slasher he's ever seen.  Or something like that.  And, I think that's a fair observation. He's not blowing up any land-speed records getting to the hoop.  But teams have such a hard time stopping him.  He's so good at finding the little gap in the trees to get the ball off and bank it in.  

 

I think there's some kind of Einstein's theory of relativity going on in his game.  He's launching himself on one trajectory while the defenders are converging and diverging at different rates in different times and different angles and James just seems to have this intuitive feel about when the space-time continuum will open up and the heavens part and there's an unimpeded path for the ball to reach the backboard at an angle where it will find the opening in the rim.

 

And you can't guard him close because he's very adept at drawing the foul.  And you can't lay off because he's just good enough of a perimeter shooter to make you pay.  And so he gets his points.

 

And as long as he's not the only one scoring, teams have a tough time defending us.  When Isaac Copeland is hitting those elbow turnaround Js and Anton Gill is dialed in from long range and Isaiah Roby is forcing the rim protectors to follow him outside the paint, etc. etc., we're just a really tough team to defend.  You basically have to outscore us.  Except we've been pretty good on the defensive end of late as well.

 

I have confidence that we can and should win all three remaining games.  The tough one was Maryland and they already took care of business.  Most teams have no answer for James Palmer.  And we've been doing a better job defending opposing bigs except for Bruno Fernando.  I think there's a pretty good likelihood we win out and head to the BTT and face a Michigan team that won't have as fresh of a set of legs.  It's not out of the question that we reach the finals.

Edited by Norm Peterson
big red22

big red22

Posted
Posted
10 minutes ago, Norm Peterson said:

Palmer is a 2nd half player.  That's been the case all season long.  He's quiet in the first half; you hardly notice him.  Then, about 10 minutes into the 2nd half, you look up and see he has 15 points and you're like "where the heck did that come from?"

 

Some analyst was quoted somewhere on here recently saying that Palmer is the slowest good slasher he's ever seen.  Or something like that.  And, I think that's a fair observation. He's not blowing up any land-speed records getting to the hoop.  But teams have such a hard time stopping him.  He's so good at finding the little gap in the trees to get the ball off and bank it in.  

 

I think there's some kind of Einstein's theory of relativity going on in his game.  He's launching himself on one trajectory while the defenders are converging and diverging at different rates in different times and different angles and James just seems to have this intuitive feel about when the space-time continuum will open up and the heavens part and there's an unimpeded path for the ball to reach the backboard at an angle where it will find the opening in the rim.

 

And you can't guard him close because he's very adept at drawing the foul.  And you can't lay off because he's just good enough of a perimeter shooter to make you pay.  And so he gets his points.

 

And as long as he's not the only one scoring, teams have a tough time defending us.  When Isaac Copeland is hitting those elbow turnaround Js and Anton Gill is dialed in from long range and Isaiah Roby is forcing the rim protectors to follow him outside the paint, etc. etc., we're just a really tough team to defend.  You basically have to outscore us.  Except we've been pretty good on the defensive end of late as well.

 

I have confidence that we can and should win all three remaining games.  The tough one was Maryland and they already took care of business.  Most teams have no answer for James Palmer.  And we've been doing a better job defending opposing bigs except for Bruno Fernando.  I think there's a pretty good likelihood we win out and head to the BTT and face a Michigan team that won't have as fresh of a set of legs.  It's not out of the question that we reach the finals.

You didn't even mention if Glynn's shots start falling... or if Jordy lefty hook shot is falling... or if Taylor 12 footers are dropping... or if Thomas Allen picks up the slack when Gill is slumping behind the arc.

 

This team is deep and dangerous.  I said in a post not to long ago we can have 3 guys foul out and we would still be productive enough to win games

jason2486

jason2486

Posted
Posted

On Game Time yesterday, Bahe was comparing Palmer's game with James Harden in how they both play with a certain pace that isn't lightning quick, but they get to their spots very effectively. Bahe had an entire segment on JPJ.

 

He also interviewed Roby the other day. Nick seems to have developed quite the man crush for our team, especially Roby and Palmer. I can't believe how much I like Bahe given that he played for BOTH Kansas and Creighton!! He typically gives great insight.

B-town hoopsfan

B-town hoopsfan

Posted
Posted

They have developed a nice identity in BIG play getting 30ish points from cope n palmer 15 from roby duby n Jordy then 25 from Watson gill Allen n Taylor. Hitting the freebies at a 70% plus clip coupled w defending threes and breaking even on the boards has translated to 20+ wins 

 

There was also an interview awhile back where miles said they motified the defense some from last year. More of an antilitics approach to defending and shooting three pointers, and it really has paid off, doesn’t hurt to have the swat team of roby n duby on the back line either.

 

its to bad we can’t get a guy like duby as a freshman, im sure duby himself wasn’t massively recruited but it would be interesting to see what we coulda made of him over 4 or 5 years 

big red22

big red22

Posted
Posted
2 minutes ago, jason2486 said:

On Game Time yesterday, Bahe was comparing Palmer's game with James Harden in how they both play with a certain pace that isn't lightning quick, but they get to their spots very effectively. Bahe had an entire segment on JPJ.

 

He also interviewed Roby the other day. Nick seems to have developed quite the man crush for our team, especially Roby and Palmer. I can't believe how much I like Bahe given that he played for BOTH Kansas and Creighton!! He typically gives great insight.

Nick Bahe loves basketball.  He isn't a homer when it comes to basketball, and he is pretty black and white when it comes to any team he is talking about.  My favorite parts of the segment you are talking about were...

 

  1. Question: "Nick if college basketball aloud mid season trade like the NBA.  Nebraska and Creighton get to trade one player for one player who would they be and why?"  His response was about 5 minutes long so I am going to just say my favorite parts were the "Oooooh Mama" before his response and "Definitely Isaiah Roby, but I don't think anyone on Creighton's roster would benefit Nebraska more than what they already have..."
  2. Question: "Do you like Isaiah Roby's play and do you think he will be drafted to the NBA by the time he is a Senior"  His response "Yes, and Yes and don't count out Palmer to the NBA because his game transfers very well as well!"

I like Nick Bahe, mainly because he isn't a Homer

Red Don

Red Don

Posted
Posted (edited)
3 hours ago, B-town hoopsfan said:

They have developed a nice identity in BIG play getting 30ish points from cope n palmer 15 from roby duby n Jordy then 25 from Watson gill Allen n Taylor. Hitting the freebies at a 70% plus clip coupled w defending threes and breaking even on the boards has translated to 20+ wins 

 

There was also an interview awhile back where miles said they motified the defense some from last year. More of an antilitics approach to defending and shooting three pointers, and it really has paid off, doesn’t hurt to have the swat team of roby n duby on the back line either.

 

its to bad we can’t get a guy like duby as a freshman, im sure duby himself wasn’t massively recruited but it would be interesting to see what we coulda made of him over 4 or 5 years 

 

Here's a link related to the OP (re Marc Boehm comments) and the modified Defense.  (Article is mostly about Scott Frost/Football but Boehm's comments about 2/3 way down)

 

Quote

Some more notes from the event:

» Marc Boehm, NU’s executive associate athletic director, said he has it on pretty good authority that if Nebraska basketball wins its final three games, it will make the NCAA tournament. Boehm, who spoke to the Lincoln Chamber of Commerce on Wednesday, said he spoke to a member of the NCAA selection committee who said three wins at the end of the regular season gives Nebraska a 99 percent chance of making the tournament.

Win two out of those three, Boehm said, and Nebraska’s chances drop to 72 percent.

Nebraska (20-8, 11-4) could reach the NCAA tournament for the second time in five years under coach Tim Miles.

Quote

» After last season, Boehm said Tim Miles sat down with Tucker Zeleny, who runs analytics for Nebraska sports.

In that meeting, Zeleny said a good number of Nebraska’s issues were because of 3-point shooting, both defending the 3 and shooting the 3.

Boehm said Miles took that advice to heart and began retooling an offense with higher efficiency 3-point shooting. The Huskers are shooting 35 percent from behind the arc this season. They also rank first in the Big Ten in 3-point field goal defense, holding opponents to 31.5 percent .

 

 

http://kwbe.com/huskers-news/with-scott-frost-as-coach-matt-davison-says-nebraska-will-have-team-fans-can-be-proud-of/

Edited by Red Don
Norm Peterson

Norm Peterson

Posted
Posted
  Quote

»" After last season, Boehm said Tim Miles sat down with Tucker Zeleny, who runs analytics for Nebraska sports.

In that meeting, Zeleny said a good number of Nebraska’s issues were because of 3-point shooting, both defending the 3 and shooting the 3.

Boehm said Miles took that advice to heart and began retooling an offense with higher efficiency 3-point shooting. The Huskers are shooting 35 percent from behind the arc this season. They also rank first in the Big Ten in 3-point field goal defense, holding opponents to 31.5 percent ."

 

Jeez, ya think?  Considering we were ranked somewhere in the 300s in both of those categories last year?  Doesn't take any genius analytics guy to figure that out.  We were (hell, even I was) talking about that a lot since the end of last season.

Art Vandalay

Art Vandalay

Posted
Posted
11 minutes ago, uneblinstu said:

The guy from Northwestern, maybe? I'd also imagine he's run across a number of those people in his 30+ years working in collegiate athletics.

 

I agree Bruce is most likely but these guys attend a lot of conferences etc, and they all know each other. Friend of mine used to work for the AD and knows tons of people at different schools around the country. Could very well be he is buddies with one of those guys on the committee.

Nebrasketball1979

Nebrasketball1979

Posted
Posted (edited)
22 minutes ago, cipsucks said:

I think there's something screwy here.  How could any committee member tell a program there's a 72% chance of anything happening?  Way too specific.  Maybe he checked out website projections and got misquoted he talked to a committee member. 

 

Just frickin' keep on winning, Huskers!

 

I agree the 72% is odd, however, he was not misquoted.  One of the OWH guys was in the room during the luncheon and gave an interview on 93.7 yesterday afternoon.  He confirmed that Boehm said this and Boehm also elaborated that the 1% could become a larger percentage if there are bid stealers from conference tournaments.  I agree that the 72% sounds odd but I have zero doubt that he actually talked to someone on the committee and that the 99% is real.  Boehm has no incentive to put out bad information as he has been around the block a long time and he understands the stakes.. I find it fascinating that there is this back channeling of information that actually became public.

Edited by Nebrasketball1979
hal9000

hal9000

Posted
Posted (edited)

With 3 games remaining plus the Big Ten Tournament, there are twelve different ways this can play out where an "at large" bid is in play.  I'm obviously omitting the scenario of going 3-0 in the conference tournament, since that constitutes an automatic bid.

 

 

1)  0-3; 0-1

2)  1-2; 0-1

3)  2-1; 0-1

4)  3-0; 0-1

5)  0-3; 1-1

6)  1-2; 1-1

7)  2-1; 1-1

8)  3-0; 1-1

9)  0-3; 2-1

10)  1-2; 2-1

11)  2-1; 2-1

12)  3-0; 2-1

 

The way I see it, there are 5 scenarios that I would conservatively predict that we would probably miss out on an at-large bid, (1, 2, 3, 5, 6)  All other scenarios I feel like we should / will make it.  So looking at it in this way I see as we currently have 58% chance, based on the different possible results, of getting an at-large.

Anyone see it slightly different? :) 

 

Edited by hal9000

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