How close were we? = How close are we?

[hhcmatt]

56 minutes ago, HuskerFever said:

 

Completely get the notion, but flipping those are just as easy as us not winning OT games vs. Minnesota, Wisconsin, and Maryland.

 

We needed a lot to work in our favor. And at the end of the day we probably netted out even in terms of "games we should have won" and "games we should have lost".

 

Oh yeah there's breaks either way for sure.  We win those two in the regular season and we don't play Minnesota and then maybe we're still out because we don't win our first tourney game. Those just seemed like the couple of games that we could have won had things broken our way more.

 

The reality was that we didn't even make the NIT so we weren't *that* close.

[Dead Dog Alley]

In road games against teams that qualified for the NCAA tournament, Nebraska's record was, 

from November 1999 through February 2022:     6-113;

from March 2022 through March 2023:                4-7.

 

So:  Getting Closer.

Edited March 19, 2023 by Dead Dog Alley

[royalfan]

To answer the original question, we lost way too many games by way too may points.  Had we beaten Purdue, it might have got people examining our resume a bit closer.  We just were not good enough as evidenced by the lines in our games.  

[royalfan]

8 hours ago, basketballjones said:

I’ll tell ya what - if we get who I’m hearing we’re gonna get in the transfer portal - and keep who we’re all hoping we keep - we’re very close. 

 

Is there a reason you are not able to mention who it is? 

[FredsSlacks]

5 hours ago, royalfan said:

 

Is there a reason you are not able to mention who it is? 

i think it's hepburn, but lawrence arguably played better than him over the last month as a true freshman.

[FredsSlacks]

we were close, but the big 10 is looking really bad in the ncaa tourney right now.

 

we're gonna need a lot more talent for next year. 9 big ten teams are in the top 50 recruiting rankings. nebraska not 1 of them.

Edited March 19, 2023 by FredsSlacks

[The Polish Rifle]

2 hours ago, FredsSlacks said:

i think it's hepburn, but lawrence arguably played better than him over the last month as a true freshman.

Chucky is only 19, probably only 1 year older than Lawrence, though they could be the same age. Shot better from 3 than Keisei this year and still has a ton of growth in front of him. He would be a home run get in the portal. 

[basketballjones]

8 hours ago, royalfan said:

 

Is there a reason you are not able to mention who it is? 

I’m very superstitious.

 

NDSU kid is my guess and things look good with keeping KT around. His ultimate dream is the NBA - I think there’s zero chance of that - but there absolutely isn’t a path from Japan pro league to NBA, but who knows with another incredible college season. 
 

And then we’re well in on 100 decent bigs so I’m not really worried about that. 
 

And just a pure hunch, we get 1 of the 3 Chucky/Sallis/Traudt. 

[Norm Peterson]

11 hours ago, HuskerFever said:

 

Completely get the notion, but flipping those are just as easy as us not winning OT games vs. Minnesota, Wisconsin, and Maryland.

 

We needed a lot to work in our favor. And at the end of the day we probably netted out even in terms of "games we should have won" and "games we should have lost".

 

Well, sure. Nobody from the teams who made it ever ask how close we were to not getting in.

 

My purpose isn't to say "gosh, flip those 2-3 games and we'd have been in."

 

My purpose is to say, "how close is our roster to being the kind of team that won't need those breaks next year?"

 

Part of that analysis, in my opinion, is trying to figure out how far from it we were this year. And it seems like we were close. Like instead of a complete roster overhaul, we're only looking at a couple of key pieces here and there.

 

THAT is the question I'm trying to answer for myself.

 

That's why the thread title is basically how close were we equals (or is an indicator of) how close are we.

[HB]

3 hours ago, FredsSlacks said:

i think it's hepburn, but lawrence arguably played better than him over the last month as a true freshman.

Different positions

[HB]

4 minutes ago, Norm Peterson said:

 

Well, sure. Nobody from the teams who made it ever ask how close we were to not getting in.

 

My purpose isn't to say "gosh, flip those 2-3 games and we'd have been in."

 

My purpose is to say, "how close is our roster to being the kind of team that won't need those breaks next year?"

 

Part of that analysis, in my opinion, is trying to figure out how far from it we were this year. And it seems like we were close. Like instead of a complete roster overhaul, we're only looking at a couple of key pieces here and there.

 

THAT is the question I'm trying to answer for myself.

 

That's why the thread title is basically how close were we equals (or is an indicator of) how close are we.

I have been saying for weeks we’re going to have significant roster turnover, and need to be very active in the portal at multiple positions.  IMO without high level portal infusion this isn’t a roster that in ‘23-24 will be successful.  Talent-wise we are currently “not close”, and are more than a couple of pieces here and there from being in the upper half of the league and getting in the dance.  Player development alone won’t do it, we need an upgrade in high level talent.   Now go get dudes!

[jayschool]

I find it interesting that in his fourth year as a head coach at Nebraska, Scott Frost's team lost eight one-score games and lost another single-digit game:

• by 8 to Illinois
• by 7 to Oklahoma
• by 3 in OT to MSU
• by 3 to Michigan
• by 7 to Minnesota
• by 5 to Purdue
• by 9 to tOSU
• by 7 to Wisconsin
• by 7 to Iowa

The mantra was "we're close," so the logical conclusion was that while the roster may have been close, poor coaching doomed the team to a horrible season.

 

I'm choosing to interpret Hoiberg's season as the exact opposite — we were close to a horrible season, but good coaching turned those close games our way and led to a mediocre season. After losing to Purdue in OT, we won:

• by 2 in OT at Minnesota
• by 3 vs. tOSU
• by 10 in OT vs. Wisconsin
• by 4 in OT vs. Maryland
• by 4 at Iowa

We lost a close game to Minnesota in the BTT, but we never led after the 9:00 mark of the first half.

 

In other words, we could easily have gone 5-15 in the conference instead of 9-11. Assuming the coaching will still be solid, we will need to upgrade our roster significantly to compete for a winning record in the Big Ten and be in consideration for an NCAA berth.

 

Of course, you already know that.

[HuskerFever]

And whatever improvements we make in the offseason, that needs to be at a much larger rate than that of our peers in the conference.

[Norm Peterson]

Northwestern was a 7-seed and made the round of 32 in the NCAA tourney this year.

 

Last year, they were 15-16 (7-13) with a roster that looks remarkably similar to the one that danced this year.

 

Notably, ALL of their top six players this year were on their roster last year.

 

Last year's top players:

 

Pete Nance

Boo Bouie

Chase Audige

Ryan Young

Ty Berry

Robbie Beran

GP	MIN	PTS	REB	AST	STL	BLK	TO	FG%	FT%	3P%
30	27.2	14.6	6.5	2.7	0.3	1.1	1.5	49.7	76.8	45.2
31	29.5	14.1	2.5	4.3	0.8	0.1	1.9	39.7	79.6	34.1
24	26.8	9.8	4.2	1.9	1.8	0.3	1.3	33.8	71.7	25.0
31	17.1	9.0	4.2	0.9	0.4	0.3	1.2	55.9	67.6	16.7
31	22.1	7.4	2.3	1.1	0.7	0.1	0.7	38.8	66.7	38.8
31	21.9	6.4	4.3	0.6	0.7	0.7	0.7	46.8	75.0	36.6

 

This year's top players:

 

Boo Bouie

Chase Audige

Ty Berry

Brooks Barnhizer

Robbie Beran

Matthew Nicholson

GP	MIN	PTS	REB	AST	STL	BLK	TO	FG%	FT%	3P%
34	34.9	17.3	3.4	4.5	1.1	0.1	2.4	40.6	86.9	31.8
34	34.4	14.1	3.4	2.9	2.4	0.6	2.4	36.8	83.2	32.5
34	28.3	8.5	4.8	1.1	1.4	0.1	0.8	34.2	81.4	29.1
34	24.2	7.6	4.9	1.1	0.8	0.4	0.8	41.0	83.6	31.0
34	25.8	7.5	4.5	0.6	0.5	0.7	0.6	36.9	84.8	34.5
34	21.0	6.3	5.4	1.2	0.6	1.2	0.9	61.4	47.8	0.0

 

[Norm Peterson]

So, if you were a Northwestern fan sitting there last year at 15-16 (7-13) thinking "we need a complete roster overhaul in order to make the dance next season" you would have been wrong.

 

I'm sitting here as a Husker fan this year at 16-16 (9-11) thinking we have a few guys who can clearly play at this level and, yeah, we need to find a few studs in the portal, probably, but I think it's a manageable undertaking.

[hskr4life]

4 minutes ago, Norm Peterson said:

So, if you were a Northwestern fan sitting there last year at 15-16 (7-13) thinking "we need a complete roster overhaul in order to make the dance next season" you would have been wrong.

 

I'm sitting here as a Husker fan this year at 16-16 (9-11) thinking we have a few guys who can clearly play at this level and, yeah, we need to find a few studs in the portal, probably, but I think it's a manageable undertaking.

Getting JLaw the PT that he did get toward the end of the year May have been the biggest blessing in disguise when thinking about the future.

[HuskerFever]

9 minutes ago, Norm Peterson said:

So, if you were a Northwestern fan sitting there last year at 15-16 (7-13) thinking "we need a complete roster overhaul in order to make the dance next season" you would have been wrong.

 

I'm sitting here as a Husker fan this year at 16-16 (9-11) thinking we have a few guys who can clearly play at this level and, yeah, we need to find a few studs in the portal, probably, but I think it's a manageable undertaking.

 

I haven't done the math on it, but returning minutes and returning % points are some good barometers for returning talent. Curious how this would look across the conference.

[Buglem]

If you didn’t hear Sam Griesel’s interview on Sharp & Handley, you should give it a listen. Sam is the ultimate when it comes to repping the Scarlet and Cream. That alone makes it worth a listen. He also drops a couple nuggets regarding the roster for next year. Mentions that Keisei may be largely basing his decision on what the rest of the roster looks like. There’s also a reference to “recruiting” by Sharp that Sam was pretty coy about but could be related to the NDSU big guy (but nothing specific was mentioned). 
 

 

[Norm Peterson]

So, it sounds like we have money, right? Can we afford to buy those other pieces we need?

 

[hhcmatt]

Seems like a reason we're closer is because we have a better coaching staff that has a clearer vision of the types of players that will work in the system we're trying to deploy.

 

[busticket]

3 hours ago, Norm Peterson said:

So, if you were a Northwestern fan sitting there last year at 15-16 (7-13) thinking "we need a complete roster overhaul in order to make the dance next season" you would have been wrong.

 

I'm sitting here as a Husker fan this year at 16-16 (9-11) thinking we have a few guys who can clearly play at this level and, yeah, we need to find a few studs in the portal, probably, but I think it's a manageable undertaking.

Absolutely.  And 2 of Northwesterns top kids transferred to Duke and UNC.  I thought they were in trouble before the season started.  Pretty amazing how the other kids stepped up for them.

[HB]

3 hours ago, Norm Peterson said:

So, if you were a Northwestern fan sitting there last year at 15-16 (7-13) thinking "we need a complete roster overhaul in order to make the dance next season" you would have been wrong.

 

I'm sitting here as a Husker fan this year at 16-16 (9-11) thinking we have a few guys who can clearly play at this level and, yeah, we need to find a few studs in the portal, probably, but I think it's a manageable undertaking.

Stud guards win in college basketball.   Northwestern had a couple of big time studs at guard, with vast experience in the same system.  We finished 11th and lose 2 of our best 3 players for sure; hopefully not 3 of 3.  Recruit your brains out, Fred.  

Edited March 19, 2023 by HB

[basketballjones]

1 hour ago, hhcmatt said:

Seems like a reason we're closer is because we have a better coaching staff that has a clearer vision of the types of players that will work in the system we're trying to deploy.

 

Ding ding we have a winner

[bobcat402]

5 hours ago, Buglem said:

If you didn’t hear Sam Griesel’s interview on Sharp & Handley, you should give it a listen. Sam is the ultimate when it comes to repping the Scarlet and Cream. That alone makes it worth a listen. He also drops a couple nuggets regarding the roster for next year. Mentions that Keisei may be largely basing his decision on what the rest of the roster looks like. There’s also a reference to “recruiting” by Sharp that Sam was pretty coy about but could be related to the NDSU big guy (but nothing specific was mentioned). 
 

 

If it’s the big man I think it is, man oh man that would be a dream. He has a NBA skill set and he is so fluid for a big man 

[49r]

9 hours ago, Norm Peterson said:

 

Well, sure. Nobody from the teams who made it ever ask how close we were to not getting in.

 

My purpose isn't to say "gosh, flip those 2-3 games and we'd have been in."

 

My purpose is to say, "how close is our roster to being the kind of team that won't need those breaks next year?"

 

Part of that analysis, in my opinion, is trying to figure out how far from it we were this year. And it seems like we were close. Like instead of a complete roster overhaul, we're only looking at a couple of key pieces here and there.

 

THAT is the question I'm trying to answer for myself.

 

That's why the thread title is basically how close were we equals (or is an indicator of) how close are we.

 

@Norm Peterson with hindsight I must say I think that we were honestly just keeping healthy all year (and having DW ready to go from the start of the season) away from being tourney bound this year.

 

However, as others mentioned, we got some very valuable experience for a number of guys that otherwise may not have been able to play, so perhaps an opportunity to improve next year?