busticket

I really believe that we will be more efficient next year which will offset a possibly lower tempo. Our leading scorer last year shot 40% from the field with a negative assist to turnover ratio. And I truly believe the hero ball made all of our other players worse. But my hope that our efficiency increases means that all of our newcomers in the lineup play cohesively which is not a given by any stretch. I’m drinking a bit of the koolaid in thinking that they will mesh well. We shall see.

I have spent sometime thinking about our offense next year because there has been a fair amount of doom and gloom regarding that topic. Last year we averaged 73 ppg and were not very efficient in doing it. I think we will be in the neighborhood of that number, but with better efficiency and defense. What that means in terms of wind and losses…I don’t know but my way too early guess is this will be Fred’s best season. I’d set the over/under at 15 wins. Here is how I see our scoring distribution as of today. Starters: 49 points per game Griesel 8 Emmanuel 13 Wilcher 10 Gary 6 Walker 12 Bench: 21 points per game -Lloyd 5 -Kieta 5 -Tominaga 7 -Breidenbach 4 So that is about 70 ppg…very similar to last year. Here are my thoughts by player: Griesel: Averaged about 14 in the Summit league IIRC. I see that number going down quite a bit. He will be facilitating more and being a team leader with occasional scoring. I don’t believe he will be scoring like he did at the mid major level but will be a valuable team leader. Emmanuel: part of why he came is because he wanted an increased scoring role. He averaged 10 at SMU as the 3rd option. I think he can up that to 13. He’ll be getting a big portion of Bryce’s shots. Wilcher: averaged about 8 as a freshman. I think he will continue to improve with experience. I’m penciling him in for 10. Gary: I think most of his points will be put backs and junk yard dog plays. He won’t be hunting his shot like Lat which will help the team. Walker: rock solid team leader. Averaged close to 10 last year. I think he can up that to 12. Extremely efficient when he gets the ball where he wants it. I think Griesel will provide that. Lloyd: I am guessing he will be our main wing and PG off the bench. I hope he will be as advertised and chip in 5 while helping in lots of areas. Heck, he could even do better than that but I am being conservative. Kieta : when he originally committed I was dreaming of a walking double/double patrolling the paint. Coming off injury I am just not sure. Erring on the side of caution: 5 ppg. Tominaga: averaged close to 6 ppg. If he is the shooter off the bench he can certainly do 7 if he continues to improve. Most people overlook Keisei, but only 4 players on last years team had a positive assist to turnover ratio. He is the only one returning. I am hoping Fred is putting more value on taking care of the damn ball this year. Now if one of the youngsters beat out Tominaga, it’s not a bad thing because that means they are doing better than this. Breidenbach: he averaged about 4 last year when healthy. I think he will do that again as the 2nd big off the bench, but I believe his efficiency will be better with a year under his belt. It is very possible McPherson, Dawson or Lawrence can break their way into the rotation. And again, that is not a bad thing. When I look at the roster, I think we have enough to have our best season in awhile. Especially is coach Howard significantly improved our defense. I don’t think my expectations for any of the players is over the top. If our team chemistry for whatever reason doesn’t improve, though, it ain’t going to work. I believe it will be better…that’s the part where I know I am wearing my rose colored glasses.

I think coaching, culture and chemistry are way more important than highly rated players right now. We just had a 5 star freshman and I wasn’t very happy with how that worked out. A bunch of mercenaries hasn’t worked out for us. I like the makeup of our roster for getting those things established next season. Just depends on how Fred coaches them. I hope the addition of coach Howard helps in that regard.

I just saw Ryan Young transferred from Northwestern to Duke last month. I am glad he is gone…seemed like he killed us with critical offensive rebounds and put-backs every time we played them.

To me it seemed like when everything in Fred’s grand plan blew up in his face he didn’t know what to do….he couldn’t step back, hit the mental reset button and make an evaluation of where we were as a program. He looked lost to me. I think Alberts sitting him down probably helped him mentally regroup and figure out what needed to happen to make something positive happen. Sometimes when things are going really bad you get lost in your own head. An outside voice can help get you back on track. After watching three years of horrible basketball (which he is in charge of) I could see where it wore Fred out mentally. Hell, I am sure many of us are worn out by it. He’s only human, and that is a long time to endure epic futility unfolding before your eyes. I personally think the current roster could be very gritty and a team we could enjoy watching. We shall see.

He must have read my post on how we need another three point shooter next year. actually he is class of 2023. So maybe not.

Looking at our roster I can see this season going one of two ways. 1. We play uptempo as we have been and we get killed. We don’t have the offensive players to play that style. 2. We change are identity to a grinding, hard nosed defensive team that makes the high IQ basketball plays that lead to good shots, easy buckets and limited turnovers. With SG at PG, I think this could work. It would really help if Breidenbach gets his 3 point shot down… last year he looked very uncomfortable shooting from outside but supposedly he has it in him. We need another player to step up outside of Wilcher to be reliable from 3 or other teams will pack it in. It will be interesting to see how Fred coaches this group. Or maybe some guys like Dawson and McPherson will surprise and be much better offensively than I am expecting.

This exact thing makes me wonder about kids who enter the portal but then return to their school. We’re they looking for better playing options and nobody wanted them, or were they looking for NIL deals and got one to stay home?

Thanks Goodness. I am tired of watching Nance kick our a$$

This is kind of where I end up with some of these kids. Would a lot of the good mid major kids be good if they were riding the pine at a higher level school? Or does the valuable experience they get playing at a lower level allow them to develop? I actually lean toward the latter. It is much easier to get better at things with experience actually doing said things.

I am not ruling it out because of the family factor. He’s easily be the best PG option if he comes here which is important to him too. Not saying it is a slam dunk but we have a chance.

Kind of maddening, isn’t it? Daum was a late bloomer but Baylor was a baller his senior year. The natural urge is to question small class kids because of competition level I suppose but it still sucks to miss on them.

Honestly if Baylor is really into Kentucky it might help us here.

Sounds like you are describing Larry Bird

After completely missing on Mike Daum I would love to see Schierman play for us.