What are the AD expectations for Fred next year?

[Navin R. Johnson]

1 hour ago, throwback said:

Looking at those numbers, if Fred has been playing the set-the-bar-so-low-at-the-beginning-that-everything-looks-like-progress long game, color me impressed. Have to admit I've done that on a few jobs over the years. It's a great strategy.

 

 

 

[cipsucks]

After seeing this thread for nine days it dawned on me the title makes no sense. I'm losing it.

[Norm Peterson]

38 minutes ago, unl said:

You’re right. He should have won right away. Because Nebraska set him up for success right out of the gates. 

 

Look at Tim Miles. Did having success right away and leading us to an NCAA appearance in year 2 earn him the degree of good will and job security that it probably should have?

 

Fred would have to reach the NIT twice and gain an NCAA tourney bid in the next 3 seasons just to match the post-season record Tim Miles had. And if he does that, he's virtually guaranteed an 8th year if he wants it.

 

Put those post-season appearance in the wrong sequence, however, and you get axed after 7 years.

[AuroranHusker]

Poor leadership at NU leads to good coaches being hung out to dry, then fired...

 

 

[HuskerFever]

21 minutes ago, Norm Peterson said:

 

Look at Tim Miles. Did having success right away and leading us to an NCAA appearance in year 2 earn him the degree of good will and job security that it probably should have?

 

Fred would have to reach the NIT twice and gain an NCAA tourney bid in the next 3 seasons just to match the post-season record Tim Miles had. And if he does that, he's virtually guaranteed an 8th year if he wants it.

 

Put those post-season appearance in the wrong sequence, however, and you get axed after 7 years.

 

Just like in life, some things come down to timing, situations, and connections. Fred has had a couple of these things work in his favor that may not relate to actual performance.

[Handy Johnson]

I’m still convinced Cowboy Bill Moos had his mind made up about getting rid of Tim & putting his own “Stamp” on the Program before he ever got on Campus. 

[HuskerFever]

24 minutes ago, Handy Johnson said:

I’m still convinced Cowboy Bill Moos had his mind made up about getting rid of Tim & putting his own “Stamp” on the Program before he ever got on Campus. 

 

And he liked spending other people's money.

[unl]

2 hours ago, Norm Peterson said:

 

Look at Tim Miles. Did having success right away and leading us to an NCAA appearance in year 2 earn him the degree of good will and job security that it probably should have?

 

Fred would have to reach the NIT twice and gain an NCAA tourney bid in the next 3 seasons just to match the post-season record Tim Miles had. And if he does that, he's virtually guaranteed an 8th year if he wants it.

 

Put those post-season appearance in the wrong sequence, however, and you get axed after 7 years.

That’s just what progress is though. 
 

If Fred has post season success from here on, it’ll be stated be built it from scratch. Record his first 3 seasons, and records season 5 and on, will be split screen comparisons at every marquee game. 
 

You don’t succeed a Nebraska basketball coach who was fired and have instant success. It just doesn’t happen. 

[Norm Peterson]

1 minute ago, unl said:

That’s just what progress is though. 
 

If Fred has post season success from here on, it’ll be stated be built it from scratch. Record his first 3 seasons, and records season 5 and on, will be split screen comparisons at every marquee game. 
 

You don’t succeed a Nebraska basketball coach who was fired and have instant success. It just doesn’t happen. 

 

Yep, I'm not arguing with you. It's just kind of interesting how that stuff works out.

[demone]

5 hours ago, Norm Peterson said:

 

Look at Tim Miles. Did having success right away and leading us to an NCAA appearance in year 2 earn him the degree of good will and job security that it probably should have?

 

Fred would have to reach the NIT twice and gain an NCAA tourney bid in the next 3 seasons just to match the post-season record Tim Miles had. And if he does that, he's virtually guaranteed an 8th year if he wants it.

 

Put those post-season appearance in the wrong sequence, however, and you get axed after 7 years.

In the finance and investment world, it’s called  “sequence of returns risk” and it is a very real phenomenon. The timing of negative market performance when you start drawing down your portfolio to fund your retirement can have major consequences over the long term. Hadn’t thought about that analogy until you framed it in that way, but it makes a ton of sense.

[HuskerFever]

I addition to expectations, we must factor in what the addition of UCLA and USC will do. Can we compete with these additional teams? Are we going to be behind 2 more teams?

 

If we're expecting to be in the top half, that's another 1-2 teams we need to our recruit, out develop, out perform in the offseason. If we can't show that progress, then we're already that much further behind. Rutgers and Northwestern did it. Can we?

[Chuck Taylor]

10 hours ago, HuskerFever said:

I addition to expectations, we must factor in what the addition of UCLA and USC will do. Can we compete with these additional teams? Are we going to be behind 2 more teams?

 

If we're expecting to be in the top half, that's another 1-2 teams we need to our recruit, out develop, out perform in the offseason. If we can't show that progress, then we're already that much further behind. Rutgers and Northwestern did it. Can we?

Re Rutgers and NW:

Rutgers has a great recruiting base, and Pikiell has proved he can coach. Their success is sustainable.

Northwestern got a recruiting boost after their first NCAA bid and waited through 5 losing seasons before it came together this year. The recruiting has dropped off dramatically since then, and their best players are leaving. I'd be shocked if they finished above .500 in conference next year.

Edited March 19, 2023 by Chuck Taylor
Clarification

[49r]

Penn State is the oldest team in the country and it's not even close.  They're losing pretty much everyone after this year, so we'll find out what Shrews will be able to do when he has to turn over the entire roster (top ten teams sorted on the experience column - average years of service).

 

Team	Conf	Avg Hgt		Eff Hgt		C Hgt		PF Hgt		SF Hgt		SG Hgt		PG Hgt		Experience		Bench		Continuity
Penn St. 10	B10	76.7	250	-1.3	330	-1.4	318	-1.3	334	-0.6	260	+0.7	108	+0.5	139	4.09	1	24.5	316	47.5	140
Purdue Fort Wayne	Horz	75.8	339	-0.2	198	-0.5	231	+0.2	142	-0.3	229	-0.7	268	-4.9	363	3.71	2	24.8	312	73.6	7
Notre Dame	ACC	78.1	42	+0.2	147	+0.6	113	-0.2	219	+0.2	142	+1.6	34	+3.1	5	3.67	3	19.5	352	54.4	79
Virginia 4	ACC	76.6	262	+0.2	142	+0.6	112	-0.2	209	-0.9	299	+0.1	168	-2.1	334	3.60	4	27.7	253	71.9	12
UAB	CUSA	77.1	187	+0.9	73	+1.0	81	+0.8	86	-0.1	206	-0.7	272	-1.0	288	3.42	5	35.4	67	51.2	109
Texas 2	B12	76.5	270	-0.7	278	-0.9	271	-0.6	264	-0.1	209	-0.8	276	-0.4	229	3.35	6	32.8	123	46.6	151
Iowa St. 6	B12	77.3	147	+0.5	107	+0.6	106	+0.3	130	-1.0	303	+0.4	128	+0.6	123	3.33	7	31.4	171	41.5	189
Marshall	SB	77.8	65	+1.7	24	+2.3	15	+1.1	51	+0.3	128	-0.0	186	+0.2	168	3.27	8	15.9	363	53.0	91
James Madison	SB	76.9	211	-0.7	265	-1.3	305	-0.1	198	-0.3	226	+0.8	82	-0.1	205	3.20	9	38.6	18	62.9	35
Maryland 8	B10	77.9	63	+0.2	140	-0.6	233	+1.1	51	+1.9	14	+1.2	58	+0.5	140	3.20	10	24.7	314	45.5	161

[Chuck Taylor]

1 hour ago, 49r said:

Penn State is the oldest team in the country and it's not even close.  They're losing pretty much everyone after this year, so we'll find out what Shrews will be able to do when he has to turn over the entire roster (top ten teams sorted on the experience column - average years of service).

 

Team	Conf	Avg Hgt		Eff Hgt		C Hgt		PF Hgt		SF Hgt		SG Hgt		PG Hgt		Experience		Bench		Continuity
Penn St. 10	B10	76.7	250	-1.3	330	-1.4	318	-1.3	334	-0.6	260	+0.7	108	+0.5	139	4.09	1	24.5	316	47.5	140
Purdue Fort Wayne	Horz	75.8	339	-0.2	198	-0.5	231	+0.2	142	-0.3	229	-0.7	268	-4.9	363	3.71	2	24.8	312	73.6	7
Notre Dame	ACC	78.1	42	+0.2	147	+0.6	113	-0.2	219	+0.2	142	+1.6	34	+3.1	5	3.67	3	19.5	352	54.4	79
Virginia 4	ACC	76.6	262	+0.2	142	+0.6	112	-0.2	209	-0.9	299	+0.1	168	-2.1	334	3.60	4	27.7	253	71.9	12
UAB	CUSA	77.1	187	+0.9	73	+1.0	81	+0.8	86	-0.1	206	-0.7	272	-1.0	288	3.42	5	35.4	67	51.2	109
Texas 2	B12	76.5	270	-0.7	278	-0.9	271	-0.6	264	-0.1	209	-0.8	276	-0.4	229	3.35	6	32.8	123	46.6	151
Iowa St. 6	B12	77.3	147	+0.5	107	+0.6	106	+0.3	130	-1.0	303	+0.4	128	+0.6	123	3.33	7	31.4	171	41.5	189
Marshall	SB	77.8	65	+1.7	24	+2.3	15	+1.1	51	+0.3	128	-0.0	186	+0.2	168	3.27	8	15.9	363	53.0	91
James Madison	SB	76.9	211	-0.7	265	-1.3	305	-0.1	198	-0.3	226	+0.8	82	-0.1	205	3.20	9	38.6	18	62.9	35
Maryland 8	B10	77.9	63	+0.2	140	-0.6	233	+1.1	51	+1.9	14	+1.2	58	+0.5	140	3.20	10	24.7	314	45.5	161

Interesting, kind of pokes a hole in the theory that experienced teams dominate at NCAA time. The four in the top 10 who made the tournament were eliminated early. Only Texas is still playing.

[Handy Johnson]

While our SEVEN Tournament appearances towers over Northwestern’s puny 2, I’ve got a feeling we’ll be surpassing their Win total as well. And it should happen under Fred’s direction, if there’s a Program that deserves more unexpected Karma then the Huskers, I don’t know who it is… Why can’t WE be Texas Tech or Butler??? 

[hhcmatt]

5 hours ago, 49r said:

Penn State is the oldest team in the country and it's not even close.  They're losing pretty much everyone after this year, so we'll find out what Shrews will be able to do when he has to turn over the entire roster (top ten teams sorted on the experience column - average years of service).

 Take the Georgetown job?

[49r]

5 hours ago, hhcmatt said:

 Take the Georgetown job?

 

Or go back to Purdue when Painter takes the Notre Dame job.

[Cazzie22]

Painter is a Gene Keady guy! He is a Boilermaker. 

[Handy Johnson]

On 3/19/2023 at 8:31 PM, Cazzie22 said:

Painter is a Gene Keady guy! He is a Boilermaker. 

Who had the BETTER haircut Gene Keady or Lou Henson @ Illinois…? 

[Cazzie22]

8 minutes ago, Handy Johnson said:

Who had the BETTER haircut Gene Keady or Lou Henson @ Illinois…?   Mean Gene had a great combover and Henson had the Loudo!

[tcp]

2 hours ago, Cazzie22 said:

2 hours ago, Handy Johnson said:

Who had the BETTER haircut Gene Keady or Lou Henson @ Illinois…?   Mean Gene had a great combover and Henson had the Loudo!

 

Jud Heathecoate had that "I'm going to war against Xerxes' doo. Or "I'm gonna protect this last Guttenberg bible"; either way. 

Edited March 21, 2023 by tcp

[Chuck Taylor]

Going out of conference, Jamie Dixon would like to enter the conversation with his Pepe Le Pew do:

 

[hhcmatt]

37 minutes ago, Chuck Taylor said:

Going out of conference, Jamie Dixon would like to enter the conversation with his Pepe Le Pew do:

 

I refer to it as 'skunked back hair'

[kldm64]

11 hours ago, Handy Johnson said:

Who had the BETTER haircut Gene Keady or Lou Henson @ Illinois…? 

 

Neither

[jayschool]

4 hours ago, Chuck Taylor said:

Going out of conference, Jamie Dixon would like to enter the conversation with his Pepe Le Pew do:

 

Sit down, Dixon!