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Posted
  On 3/18/2023 at 4:49 PM, unl said:

You’re right. He should have won right away. Because Nebraska set him up for success right out of the gates. 

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Look at Tim Miles. Did having success right away and leading us to an NCAA appearance in year 2 earn him the degree of good will and job security that it probably should have?

 

Fred would have to reach the NIT twice and gain an NCAA tourney bid in the next 3 seasons just to match the post-season record Tim Miles had. And if he does that, he's virtually guaranteed an 8th year if he wants it.

 

Put those post-season appearance in the wrong sequence, however, and you get axed after 7 years.

Posted
  On 3/18/2023 at 5:33 PM, Norm Peterson said:

 

Look at Tim Miles. Did having success right away and leading us to an NCAA appearance in year 2 earn him the degree of good will and job security that it probably should have?

 

Fred would have to reach the NIT twice and gain an NCAA tourney bid in the next 3 seasons just to match the post-season record Tim Miles had. And if he does that, he's virtually guaranteed an 8th year if he wants it.

 

Put those post-season appearance in the wrong sequence, however, and you get axed after 7 years.

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Just like in life, some things come down to timing, situations, and connections. Fred has had a couple of these things work in his favor that may not relate to actual performance.

Posted
  On 3/18/2023 at 5:33 PM, Norm Peterson said:

 

Look at Tim Miles. Did having success right away and leading us to an NCAA appearance in year 2 earn him the degree of good will and job security that it probably should have?

 

Fred would have to reach the NIT twice and gain an NCAA tourney bid in the next 3 seasons just to match the post-season record Tim Miles had. And if he does that, he's virtually guaranteed an 8th year if he wants it.

 

Put those post-season appearance in the wrong sequence, however, and you get axed after 7 years.

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That’s just what progress is though. 
 

If Fred has post season success from here on, it’ll be stated be built it from scratch. Record his first 3 seasons, and records season 5 and on, will be split screen comparisons at every marquee game. 
 

You don’t succeed a Nebraska basketball coach who was fired and have instant success. It just doesn’t happen. 

Posted
  On 3/18/2023 at 7:49 PM, unl said:

That’s just what progress is though. 
 

If Fred has post season success from here on, it’ll be stated be built it from scratch. Record his first 3 seasons, and records season 5 and on, will be split screen comparisons at every marquee game. 
 

You don’t succeed a Nebraska basketball coach who was fired and have instant success. It just doesn’t happen. 

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Yep, I'm not arguing with you. It's just kind of interesting how that stuff works out.

Posted
  On 3/18/2023 at 5:33 PM, Norm Peterson said:

 

Look at Tim Miles. Did having success right away and leading us to an NCAA appearance in year 2 earn him the degree of good will and job security that it probably should have?

 

Fred would have to reach the NIT twice and gain an NCAA tourney bid in the next 3 seasons just to match the post-season record Tim Miles had. And if he does that, he's virtually guaranteed an 8th year if he wants it.

 

Put those post-season appearance in the wrong sequence, however, and you get axed after 7 years.

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In the finance and investment world, it’s called  “sequence of returns risk” and it is a very real phenomenon. The timing of negative market performance when you start drawing down your portfolio to fund your retirement can have major consequences over the long term. Hadn’t thought about that analogy until you framed it in that way, but it makes a ton of sense.

Posted

I addition to expectations, we must factor in what the addition of UCLA and USC will do. Can we compete with these additional teams? Are we going to be behind 2 more teams?

 

If we're expecting to be in the top half, that's another 1-2 teams we need to our recruit, out develop, out perform in the offseason. If we can't show that progress, then we're already that much further behind. Rutgers and Northwestern did it. Can we?

Posted (edited)
  On 3/19/2023 at 1:24 AM, HuskerFever said:

I addition to expectations, we must factor in what the addition of UCLA and USC will do. Can we compete with these additional teams? Are we going to be behind 2 more teams?

 

If we're expecting to be in the top half, that's another 1-2 teams we need to our recruit, out develop, out perform in the offseason. If we can't show that progress, then we're already that much further behind. Rutgers and Northwestern did it. Can we?

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Re Rutgers and NW:

Rutgers has a great recruiting base, and Pikiell has proved he can coach. Their success is sustainable.

Northwestern got a recruiting boost after their first NCAA bid and waited through 5 losing seasons before it came together this year. The recruiting has dropped off dramatically since then, and their best players are leaving. I'd be shocked if they finished above .500 in conference next year.

Edited by Chuck Taylor
Clarification
Posted

Penn State is the oldest team in the country and it's not even close.  They're losing pretty much everyone after this year, so we'll find out what Shrews will be able to do when he has to turn over the entire roster (top ten teams sorted on the experience column - average years of service).

 

Team Conf Avg Hgt Eff Hgt C Hgt PF Hgt SF Hgt SG Hgt PG Hgt Experience Bench Continuity
Penn St. 10 B10 76.7 250 -1.3 330 -1.4 318 -1.3 334 -0.6 260 +0.7 108 +0.5 139 4.09 1 24.5 316 47.5 140
Purdue Fort Wayne Horz 75.8 339 -0.2 198 -0.5 231 +0.2 142 -0.3 229 -0.7 268 -4.9 363 3.71 2 24.8 312 73.6 7
Notre Dame ACC 78.1 42 +0.2 147 +0.6 113 -0.2 219 +0.2 142 +1.6 34 +3.1 5 3.67 3 19.5 352 54.4 79
Virginia 4 ACC 76.6 262 +0.2 142 +0.6 112 -0.2 209 -0.9 299 +0.1 168 -2.1 334 3.60 4 27.7 253 71.9 12
UAB CUSA 77.1 187 +0.9 73 +1.0 81 +0.8 86 -0.1 206 -0.7 272 -1.0 288 3.42 5 35.4 67 51.2 109
Texas 2 B12 76.5 270 -0.7 278 -0.9 271 -0.6 264 -0.1 209 -0.8 276 -0.4 229 3.35 6 32.8 123 46.6 151
Iowa St. 6 B12 77.3 147 +0.5 107 +0.6 106 +0.3 130 -1.0 303 +0.4 128 +0.6 123 3.33 7 31.4 171 41.5 189
Marshall SB 77.8 65 +1.7 24 +2.3 15 +1.1 51 +0.3 128 -0.0 186 +0.2 168 3.27 8 15.9 363 53.0 91
James Madison SB 76.9 211 -0.7 265 -1.3 305 -0.1 198 -0.3 226 +0.8 82 -0.1 205 3.20 9 38.6 18 62.9 35
Maryland 8 B10 77.9 63 +0.2 140 -0.6 233 +1.1 51 +1.9 14 +1.2 58 +0.5 140 3.20 10 24.7 314 45.5 161
Posted
  On 3/19/2023 at 12:44 PM, 49r said:

Penn State is the oldest team in the country and it's not even close.  They're losing pretty much everyone after this year, so we'll find out what Shrews will be able to do when he has to turn over the entire roster (top ten teams sorted on the experience column - average years of service).

 

Team Conf Avg Hgt Eff Hgt C Hgt PF Hgt SF Hgt SG Hgt PG Hgt Experience Bench Continuity
Penn St. 10 B10 76.7 250 -1.3 330 -1.4 318 -1.3 334 -0.6 260 +0.7 108 +0.5 139 4.09 1 24.5 316 47.5 140
Purdue Fort Wayne Horz 75.8 339 -0.2 198 -0.5 231 +0.2 142 -0.3 229 -0.7 268 -4.9 363 3.71 2 24.8 312 73.6 7
Notre Dame ACC 78.1 42 +0.2 147 +0.6 113 -0.2 219 +0.2 142 +1.6 34 +3.1 5 3.67 3 19.5 352 54.4 79
Virginia 4 ACC 76.6 262 +0.2 142 +0.6 112 -0.2 209 -0.9 299 +0.1 168 -2.1 334 3.60 4 27.7 253 71.9 12
UAB CUSA 77.1 187 +0.9 73 +1.0 81 +0.8 86 -0.1 206 -0.7 272 -1.0 288 3.42 5 35.4 67 51.2 109
Texas 2 B12 76.5 270 -0.7 278 -0.9 271 -0.6 264 -0.1 209 -0.8 276 -0.4 229 3.35 6 32.8 123 46.6 151
Iowa St. 6 B12 77.3 147 +0.5 107 +0.6 106 +0.3 130 -1.0 303 +0.4 128 +0.6 123 3.33 7 31.4 171 41.5 189
Marshall SB 77.8 65 +1.7 24 +2.3 15 +1.1 51 +0.3 128 -0.0 186 +0.2 168 3.27 8 15.9 363 53.0 91
James Madison SB 76.9 211 -0.7 265 -1.3 305 -0.1 198 -0.3 226 +0.8 82 -0.1 205 3.20 9 38.6 18 62.9 35
Maryland 8 B10 77.9 63 +0.2 140 -0.6 233 +1.1 51 +1.9 14 +1.2 58 +0.5 140 3.20 10 24.7 314 45.5 161
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Interesting, kind of pokes a hole in the theory that experienced teams dominate at NCAA time. The four in the top 10 who made the tournament were eliminated early. Only Texas is still playing.

Posted

While our SEVEN Tournament appearances towers over Northwestern’s puny 2, I’ve got a feeling we’ll be surpassing their Win total as well. And it should happen under Fred’s direction, if there’s a Program that deserves more unexpected Karma then the Huskers, I don’t know who it is… Why can’t WE be Texas Tech or Butler??? 

Posted
  On 3/19/2023 at 12:44 PM, 49r said:

Penn State is the oldest team in the country and it's not even close.  They're losing pretty much everyone after this year, so we'll find out what Shrews will be able to do when he has to turn over the entire roster (top ten teams sorted on the experience column - average years of service).

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 Take the Georgetown job?

Posted (edited)
  On 3/21/2023 at 1:56 AM, Cazzie22 said:
  On 3/21/2023 at 1:46 AM, Handy Johnson said:

Who had the BETTER haircut Gene Keady or Lou Henson @ Illinois…?   Mean Gene had a great combover and Henson had the Loudo!

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Jud Heathecoate had that "I'm going to war against Xerxes' doo. Or "I'm gonna protect this last Guttenberg bible"; either way. 

Edited by tcp

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