Hoiberg Amongst His Peers

[HuskerFever]

It's no secret that Hoiberg started his tenure here in what became a less desired time, given COVID threw everything into disarray. It's also no secret that he didn't have the same momentum as joining a new conference, new dedicated basketball practice facility, and construction being completed on a brand new stadium. It's unfortunate. It really is. But all that aside, how has he performed in relation to his other Power 6 peers?

 

Active P6 Coaches Starting in 2019 (excl. Hoiberg):

Total coaches: 10; Mike Young (Virginia Tech), Mike Anderson (St. John's), Juwan Howard (Michigan), Mark Fox (California), Mick Cronin (UCLA), Kyle Smith (Washington State), Nate Oats (Alabama), Eric Musselman (Arkansas), Buzz Williams (Texas A&M), Jerry Stackhouse (Vanderbilt)

 

W/L: 668-483 (58%)

CW/CL: 311-325 (49%)

 

1+ postseasons: 8 of 10 = 80%; Mike Anderson (St. John's), Mark Fox (California) have yet to make it into a postseason

 

Between the 8 postseason coaches: NCAA Final Four, NCAA Elite Eight x3, NCAA Sweet Sixteen x3, NCAA First Round x3, NIT Final, NIT Semifinal, NIT Quarterfinal

 

Total (Conference)

Avg Y1 Wins: 16.4 (7.5)

Avg Y2 Wins: 16.7 (9.0)

Avg Y3 Wins: 21.3 (9.9)

 

Any season >10 W: 10 of 10; Only seasons <=10 wins: Y2 Mark Fox (9), Y2 Buzz Williams (8), Y2 Jerry Stackhouse (9)

 

Any season >4 CW: 10 of 10; Only seasons <=4 wins: Y2 Mark Fox (3), Y2 Buzz Williams (2), Y2 Jerry Stackhouse (3)

 

All Active P6 Coaches Starting 2019, 2020, 2021 (excl. Hoiberg):

Total Coaches: 37

 

Started 2020 (1): Steve Forbes (Wake Forest)

Started 2021 (12): Earl Grant (Boston College), T. J. Otzelberger (Iowa State), Porter Moser (Oklahoma), Mark Adams (Texas Tech), Thad Matta (Butler), Tony Stubblefield (DePaul), Shaka Smart (Marquette), Mike Woodson (Indiana), Ben Johnson (Minnesota), Micah Shrewsberry (Penn State), Tommy Lloyd (Arizona), Craig Smith (Utah)

Started 2022 (14): Jon Scheyer (Duke), Kenny Payne (Louisville), Jerome Tang (Kansas State), Rodney Terry (Texas; interim), Shaheen Holloway (Seton Hall), Kyle Neptune (Villanova), Sean Miller (Xavier), Kevin Willard (Maryland), Todd Golden (Florida), Mike White (Georgia), Matt McMahon (Louisiana State), Chris Jans (Mississippi State), Dennis Gates (Missouri), Lamont Paris (South Carolina)

 

W/L: 1,262-912 (58%)

CW/CL: 542-622 (47%)

1+ postseasons: 15 of 23 (excludes Y1 coaches) = 65%

 

Every single 2019, 2020, and 2021 coach has had at least one >10 win season

 

Every single 2019, 2020, and 2021 coach has had at least one >4 conference win season

 

Total (Conference)

Avg Y1 Wins: 15.3 (6.3)

Avg Y2 Wins: 15.0 (6.8)

Avg Y3 Wins: 20.7 (9.5)

 

Hoiberg:

W/L: 34-79 (30%)

CW/CL: 12-58 (17%)

1+ postseasons: 0

 

Total (Conference)

Y1 Wins: 7 (2)

Y2 Wins: 7 (3)

Y3 Wins: 10 (4)

 

Hoiberg vs. Coaches At-or-Below His Tenure at Nebraska (2019):

# of 2019 coaches (same as Hoiberg): 13

# of 2020 coaches (1 fewer year vs. Hoiberg): 1

# of 2021 coaches (2 fewer years vs. Hoiberg): 12

# of 2022 coaches (3 fewer years vs. Hoiberg): 6

 

Records:

vs. 2019 coaches: 4-8 (0-5)

vs. 2020 coaches: 0-1 (0-0)

vs. 2021 coaches: 5-5 (3-4)

vs. 2022 coaches: 3-2 (0-1)

Total: 12-16 (3-10)

 

If you look at just Power 6 coaches, those records are:

vs. 2019 coaches: 1-6 (0-5)

vs. 2020 coaches: 0-0 (0-0)

vs. 2021 coaches: 4-5 (3-4)

vs. 2022 coaches: 0-2 (0-1)

Total: 5-13 (3-10)

 

 

TLDR;

 

• There are 10 other active Power 6 coaches who started at their current programs in 2019
• Those coaches have won 58% of their games, 49% of conference games; Hoiberg is 30% and 17% -- the worst total and conference record amongst all 24 active P6 coaches who started between 2019-2021
• Average wins has increased every season (16.4 in 2019, 16.7 in 2020, and 21.3 in 2021); 6.3, 8.8, 9.5 in conference wins
• 8 of those 10 coaches have made it to at least 1 postseason during that time
• Of all active coaches who started with their current program between 2019-2021, all 23 of them have had more than a 10-win season and more than a 4-win conference season
• Hoiberg has coached against a team with the equal-or-younger coaching tenure 32 times, with a record of 12-16 (3-10) against those coaches
• If you only look at the Power 6 coaches with equal-or-younger coaching tenure that has happened 22 times, with a record of 5-13 (3-10) against those coaches
• It's also worth noting that Hoiberg will have faced a first-year coach six times by the end of this season (Maine, Omaha, Kansas State, Queens University, Maryland x2)

[cipsucks]

Got to hand it to you, Fever.  You went to a lot of work. 

 

 

[basketballjones]

Man…. I’m not sure what else to say besides this has been an unmitigated disaster. I believe if FH was literally any other random coach we hired instead of him this board and husker nation would be completely up in arms. And he would have been fired maybe even at the end of last year. 

[NUdiehard]

Wow. I applaud the research but you just wasted a whole lot of time and effort to say “Hoiberg has a historically bad win/loss record while coaching at Nebraska.”  Ummm, I think we are all painfully aware of that fact. 
 

Some of us fully recognize that his win/loss record in his 4 years at NU has been deplorable but still feel he has as good of chance or better than any other random mid-major coach that would be brought in to replace him. 
 

Your dissertation left out a few pertinent facts. For instance, it completely ignores Hoiberg’s record at ISU. Shoudn’t that be at least averaged in?  If Hoiberg was wildly successful at a previous school that had some history of basketball success, but has had no success at a school that has no history of basketball success, would logic dictate it is the coach or the school/program that is the problem?  You are comparing Houberg’s record to other schools that have a long history of basketball success, hardly apples to apples. 

 

Does the fact that Hoiberg has the toughest schedule in all of college basketball factor into your stats?  If Hoiberg scheduled 16 cupcakes every year like Doc always did, he would have a lot more Ws in his record. Would that make him any different a coach ?  Plus, the B1G is brutal. I believe there are 9 teams in the top 40 of the NET.  This year, NU easily disposed of FSU and Boston College. There are multiple bad teams in most other p5 conference, while the B1G only has one in Minnesota. Again, not apples to apples. 
 

But even with all that said, no one is going to disagree that Hoiberg’s poor record in his 4 years is historically bad, even for Nebraska.  If the discussion is solely about his record his first 4 years, then there’s nothing more to discuss. But some of us don’t feel that the failures of the past means it is impossible to change and have success in the future. Why?  Because he already had massive success at a P5 school before. That is more than can be said for ANY previous coach at Nebraska and most likely would be more than any mid-major coach that might be hired next year if Fed is fired. Pretty simple really. Plus, before this year was derailed by injuries, it showed Hoiberg is learning and adapting. He turned over his staff and changed his style of play. 
 

Let’s look at it another way. Are you 100% sure a new coach would have more success next year than Hoiberg would be if he returns?  How about 75%?  50%?  The reality is whether it is Hoiberg or some new coach, either is going to have to hope to get some quality players in the portal. The only difference we can probably know is that if Hoiberg leaves, it is more likely that we lose some or maybe even all of the more promising young players we currently have on the roster. Sonic we are taking about the future, not the past, then there still is an argument to be made for Hoiberg being retained. 
 

But by all means, those who want him fired can continue to recite his past record in creative yet duplicative ways over and over and over again. You will have plenty of chances as losses continue to mount 

[cornfed24-7]

20 minutes ago, NUdiehard said:

Are you 100% sure a new coach would have more success next year than Hoiberg would be if he returns?  

Yes. Also his time at ISU is irrelevant. But we get it Hoiberg is your guy. 

[HuskerFever]

11 minutes ago, NUdiehard said:

Wow. I applaud the research but you just wasted a whole lot of time and effort to say “Hoiberg has a historically bad win/loss record while coaching at Nebraska.”  Ummm, I think we are all painfully aware of that fact.

 

I guess you may be misinterpreting the entire point of this analysis.

 

First, I'll say, no time was wasted. As many know on this board, I thoroughly enjoy digging into the nuances of data and I figured I'd just share a part of what I dug into today as sometimes other people seem to appreciate the analysis (and sometimes not).

 

Second, as mentioned in my opening this is addressing a question about how other coaches have fared in a similar time-period where a coach gets hired, COVID puts a major shock into the college basketball system, and seeing how other coaches have fared with that. Nobody said anything about a new coach, firing Fred, or making arguments about any coaches.

 

You're right, there's a whole lot more that can be factored in. Especially if the whole point was to make an argument for/against firing someone. But that's not what this was about. For the sake of simplicity I was looking at recency, not digging through the entire history of 363 head basketball coaches. It certainly would be interesting to see how D1 basketball coaching careers trend, and what the probability of returning from down seasons/demotions. If the point was about looking at how coaches fared in 2010-2015, we'd have to compare how the landscape is different today than 8-13 years ago, then see how coaches during that timeframe are faring today.

 

When you talk about no history of basketball success, I looked at every single Power 6 school. That includes coaches who are doing relatively well for the bottom-feeder programs. It also includes the Kenny Payne who's 2-19 (0-10) today. You mentioned SOS. I'm not addressing Hoiberg's situation. Nevertheless, that's scheduled 2 years out; strategy varies by coach but ideally you're trying to optimize your projected expectations/development of players.

 

This has nothing to do with support, or lack of support, of a coach. Just an analysis of other 2019 coaches. The way you're taking issue to it seems to signify something in the data didn't align well with your feelings or opinion about some other topic.

[NUdiehard]

Fair enough. But you did specifically isolate Hoiberg’s record in comparison to the average and the title of the thread is “Hoiberg Amongst His Peers”. 

[Dead Dog Alley]

[HuskerFever]

21 minutes ago, NUdiehard said:

Fair enough. But you did specifically isolate Hoiberg’s record in comparison to the average and the title of the thread is “Hoiberg Amongst His Peers”. 

 

The context in another thread someone proposed was essentially "How are other coaches doing in these circumstances?" So I was using Hoiberg as a benchmark given we tend to care most about that on this board. But yeah, a headline like "The Intersection of Coaching Performance for those Starting a New Position in 2019" is confusing.

 

I tried using ChatGPT (developed by OpenAI) just now to write a better headline, but got mixed results 

 

Headline 1: "2019 Coaches See Record Turnover in Head Coaching Positions"

 

Headline 2: "Head Coaches in Power Conferences Outperform Those in Mid-Majors"

 

Headline 3: "Head Coaches Under the Microscope: Analyzing Performance in the NCAA"

 

Headline 4: "Head Coaches: Successes and Failures in the Spotlight"

 

Headline 5: "COVID-19 Puts Head Coaches to the Test: How Have They Responded?"

[AuroranHusker]

"Hoiberg alongside his 2019 new-hire peers" doesn't really resonate either. 

 

 

[HB]

4 hours ago, NUdiehard said:

Wow. I applaud the research but you just wasted a whole lot of time and effort to say “Hoiberg has a historically bad win/loss record while coaching at Nebraska.”  Ummm, I think we are all painfully aware of that fact. 
 

Some of us fully recognize that his win/loss record in his 4 years at NU has been deplorable but still feel he has as good of chance or better than any other random mid-major coach that would be brought in to replace him. 
 

Your dissertation left out a few pertinent facts. For instance, it completely ignores Hoiberg’s record at ISU. Shoudn’t that be at least averaged in?  If Hoiberg was wildly successful at a previous school that had some history of basketball success, but has had no success at a school that has no history of basketball success, would logic dictate it is the coach or the school/program that is the problem?  You are comparing Houberg’s record to other schools that have a long history of basketball success, hardly apples to apples. 

 

Does the fact that Hoiberg has the toughest schedule in all of college basketball factor into your stats?  If Hoiberg scheduled 16 cupcakes every year like Doc always did, he would have a lot more Ws in his record. Would that make him any different a coach ?  Plus, the B1G is brutal. I believe there are 9 teams in the top 40 of the NET.  This year, NU easily disposed of FSU and Boston College. There are multiple bad teams in most other p5 conference, while the B1G only has one in Minnesota. Again, not apples to apples. 
 

But even with all that said, no one is going to disagree that Hoiberg’s poor record in his 4 years is historically bad, even for Nebraska.  If the discussion is solely about his record his first 4 years, then there’s nothing more to discuss. But some of us don’t feel that the failures of the past means it is impossible to change and have success in the future. Why?  Because he already had massive success at a P5 school before. That is more than can be said for ANY previous coach at Nebraska and most likely would be more than any mid-major coach that might be hired next year if Fed is fired. Pretty simple really. Plus, before this year was derailed by injuries, it showed Hoiberg is learning and adapting. He turned over his staff and changed his style of play. 
 

Let’s look at it another way. Are you 100% sure a new coach would have more success next year than Hoiberg would be if he returns?  How about 75%?  50%?  The reality is whether it is Hoiberg or some new coach, either is going to have to hope to get some quality players in the portal. The only difference we can probably know is that if Hoiberg leaves, it is more likely that we lose some or maybe even all of the more promising young players we currently have on the roster. Sonic we are taking about the future, not the past, then there still is an argument to be made for Hoiberg being retained. 
 

But by all means, those who want him fired can continue to recite his past record in creative yet duplicative ways over and over and over again. You will have plenty of chances as losses continue to mount 

Fine job of cherry picking to support your ceaseless “Save Fred” campaign.   You mention Doc scheduling cupcakes, but fail to mention that for 3 years Fred lost to a bunch of them.   There is nothing h to support your contention that we would have a helluva lot more wins against the supposed cupcakes.  We lost to freaking everyone.   You cherry pick that Fred won at some other school, years ago.  Doesn’t seem too relevant at this point.  You cherry pick that Nebraska has no history of success as yet another excuse.  But we haven’t been bottom dwellers for 4 years straight ever.   If your standard is there’s no guarantee that the next guy will be better, than we’ll never hire another coach .   There are no guarantees, but I’m pretty damn confident that Norm Peterson would have gone at least 12-58 in the league in 4 years.  

Edited January 30, 2023 by HB

[NUdiehard]

11 hours ago, HB said:

Fine job of cherry picking to support your ceaseless “Save Fred” campaign.   You mention Doc scheduling cupcakes, but fail to mention that for 3 years Fred lost to a bunch of them.   There is nothing h to support your contention that we would have a helluva lot more wins against the supposed cupcakes.  We lost to freaking everyone.   You cherry pick that Fred won at some other school, years ago.  Doesn’t seem too relevant at this point.  You cherry pick that Nebraska has no history of success as yet another excuse.  But we haven’t been bottom dwellers for 4 years straight ever.   If your standard is there’s no guarantee that the next guy will be better, than we’ll never hire another coach .   There are no guarantees, but I’m pretty damn confident that Norm Peterson would have gone at least 12-58 in the league in 4 years.  

 

Collier and Sadler combined to coach 12 years at NU and neither of them ever had a winning record in the conference, and I would argue that the Big 12 conference they coached in was not nearly as deep and difficult as the B1G has been during Hoiberg's tenure.

 

I am just sharing my opinion and trying to add what I believe is relevant context.  But I can completely understand why you and others feel differently and want Hoiberg gone.  And I will acknowledge that the lack of production by players like Wilcher, Breidenbach and Keita this year make it more difficult to see a bright future absent a massive influx of transfer talent (and it also underscores the severe lack of recruiting the first 2 years).  You have been on this board for years and know that I have been critical of Hoiberg in the past.  Over two years ago, before the start of the 2021/22 season, I was critical of the recruiting and said it needed to drastically pick up.  I took a lot of heat for saying that I did not think Breidenbach would be an impact player for at least his first couple years here (and that has proven correct).  Last year I was very critical of the defense as well as the lack of effort and discipline.  

 

And yes, I am giving Fred a MUCH longer leash than I would almost any other coach.  But that is because he has proven he can win at a P5, and because I believe his name still has cache among recruits because he was a legendary college player, and NBA player and an NBA coach, and he carries himself well and is a good representative of our program.  And because I believe he has tried to rectify his mistakes of the first 3 years.  He has changed his coaches, changed his philosophy, and I believe he now is finally putting in the effort and actively recruiting himself and not just relying on his assistants.  Do I wish he would have done all this the last 3 years?  Absolutely!

 

But in the end, you can take solace in knowing that my personal opinion will not have any influence whatsoever on whether Trev decides to bring Hoiberg back next year.  I am just a random dude on a message board. 

[hhcmatt]

16 hours ago, basketballjones said:

Man…. I’m not sure what else to say besides this has been an unmitigated disaster. I believe if FH was literally any other random coach we hired instead of him this board and husker nation would be completely up in arms. And he would have been fired maybe even at the end of last year. 

 

Safe to say that Coach Joe Mid-Major would have been fired after 3 years of Hoiberg's record and in part because he wouldn't have commanded the same hefty contract and buyout.

[Norm Peterson]

14 hours ago, NUdiehard said:

Fair enough. But you did specifically isolate Hoiberg’s record in comparison to the average and the title of the thread is “Hoiberg Amongst His Peers”. 

 

So you're saying he should have compared him to the below average?

[Norm Peterson]

13 hours ago, HuskerFever said:

 

The context in another thread someone proposed was essentially "How are other coaches doing in these circumstances?" So I was using Hoiberg as a benchmark given we tend to care most about that on this board. But yeah, a headline like "The Intersection of Coaching Performance for those Starting a New Position in 2019" is confusing.

 

I tried using ChatGPT (developed by OpenAI) just now to write a better headline, but got mixed results 

 

Headline 1: "2019 Coaches See Record Turnover in Head Coaching Positions"

 

Headline 2: "Head Coaches in Power Conferences Outperform Those in Mid-Majors"

 

Headline 3: "Head Coaches Under the Microscope: Analyzing Performance in the NCAA"

 

Headline 4: "Head Coaches: Successes and Failures in the Spotlight"

 

Headline 5: "COVID-19 Puts Head Coaches to the Test: How Have They Responded?"

 

Did Matt write that algorithm? 

[HB]

10 hours ago, NUdiehard said:

 

Collier and Sadler combined to coach 12 years at NU and neither of them ever had a winning record in the conference, and I would argue that the Big 12 conference they coached in was not nearly as deep and difficult as the B1G has been during Hoiberg's tenure.

 

I am just sharing my opinion and trying to add what I believe is relevant context.  But I can completely understand why you and others feel differently and want Hoiberg gone.  And I will acknowledge that the lack of production by players like Wilcher, Breidenbach and Keita this year make it more difficult to see a bright future absent a massive influx of transfer talent (and it also underscores the severe lack of recruiting the first 2 years).  You have been on this board for years and know that I have been critical of Hoiberg in the past.  Over two years ago, before the start of the 2021/22 season, I was critical of the recruiting and said it needed to drastically pick up.  I took a lot of heat for saying that I did not think Breidenbach would be an impact player for at least his first couple years here (and that has proven correct).  Last year I was very critical of the defense as well as the lack of effort and discipline.  

 

And yes, I am giving Fred a MUCH longer leash than I would almost any other coach.  But that is because he has proven he can win at a P5, and because I believe his name still has cache among recruits because he was a legendary college player, and NBA player and an NBA coach, and he carries himself well and is a good representative of our program.  And because I believe he has tried to rectify his mistakes of the first 3 years.  He has changed his coaches, changed his philosophy, and I believe he now is finally putting in the effort and actively recruiting himself and not just relying on his assistants.  Do I wish he would have done all this the last 3 years?  Absolutely!

 

But in the end, you can take solace in knowing that my personal opinion will not have any influence whatsoever on whether Trev decides to bring Hoiberg back next year.  I am just a random dude on a message board. 

So is there any scenario, or amount of losing, that would cause you to flip?  Or because he won years ago at Iowa State and coached and played in the NBA we keep him forever no matter what?  

[cipsucks]

There are so many scenarios that can happen between now and season's end that could change everything.  Remember, this is Nebraska Basketball.

[NUdiehard]

1 hour ago, HB said:

So is there any scenario, or amount of losing, that would cause you to flip?  Or because he won years ago at Iowa State and coached and played in the NBA we keep him forever no matter what?  

 

I go to every single home game.  I watch every away game live on TV.  Like everyone on this board, I certainly enjoy winning a whole lot more than losing.  I was standing at center court for no-sit Sunday.  The last 3 years were bad, you will get no argument from me on that.  This year was much, much more enjoyable until derailed by injuries.  It was not at no-sit Sunday enjoyable levels, but it was a solid and significant step in the right direction.

 

To answer your question, no, there is not any amount of losing "this year" that could change my mind.  This team is now decimated by injuries and it will be a miracle if they win 1 or 2 more games.  I would like to see more production from the younger players, but that is still not going to be a determinative factor for me.  

 

But the remainder of this year is not "forever" IMO.  Next season the team will definitely have to show progress, including in the W-L column.  I am not sure exactly what win/loss record that might be, but definitely better than these first 4 years.  

 

I want to keep Fred because I believe he gives us the best chance to win more games in the future than the next random mid-major coach.  I acknowledge I could be completely wrong about that, and I acknowledge that his record here has been so bad that others like you are justified in thinking differently, but for me personally, I would like to give him at least one more year and then see where we are at the end of next season. 

Edited January 31, 2023 by NUdiehard

[hskr4life]

29 minutes ago, NUdiehard said:

But the remainder of this year is not "forever" IMO.  Next season the team will definitely have to show progress, including in the W-L column.  I am not sure exactly what win/loss record that might be, but definitely better than these first 4 years.  

 

How can you not know what W/L record we need moving forward if he's retained after this year?  I was a post-season or bust (before injuries) this year.  Next year is 100% a post season or bust for me and I'm almost leaning toward dance or bust if he's retained.  If he's retained, he HAS to show something next year.  HAS to.

[jayschool]

On 1/29/2023 at 5:40 PM, NUdiehard said:

If Hoiberg was wildly successful at a previous school that had some history of basketball success, but has had no success at a school that has no history of basketball success, would logic dictate it is the coach or the school/program that is the problem?  You are comparing Hoiberg’s record to other schools that have a long history of basketball success, hardly apples to apples. 

Iowa State's all-time record is 1412-1376, a .506 winning percentage.

Nebraska's all-time record is 1535-1417, a .519 winning percentage.

Nebraska leads the all-time series with Iowa State 131-103.

[49r]

45 minutes ago, jayschool said:

Iowa State's all-time record is 1412-1376, a .506 winning percentage.

Nebraska's all-time record is 1535-1417, a .519 winning percentage.

Nebraska leads the all-time series with Iowa State 131-103.

 

Just imagine what that stat looked like before Johnny Orr arrived in Ames.

[HB]

10 hours ago, NUdiehard said:

 

 

I want to keep Fred because I believe he gives us the best chance to win more games in the future than the next random mid-major coach.  I acknowledge I could be completely wrong about that, and I acknowledge that his record here has been so bad that others like you are justified in thinking differently, but for me personally, I would like to give him at least one more year and then see where we are at the end of next season. 

 

Why are we limited to a random mid-major coach? (Jerome Tang says Hi).  

[tcp]

10 hours ago, 49r said:

 

Just imagine what that stat looked like before Johnny Orr arrived in Ames.

I'm old enough to remember when Orr bolted Michigan for ISU. They had zero for real tradition. He built them out of nothing, I believe. Even mighty Duke sucked once before K showed up. It really is a question of the "right guy". If you can turn Gonzaga into a powerhouse, you can work miracles anywhere. 

[NUdiehard]

1 hour ago, HB said:

 

Why are we limited to a random mid-major coach? (Jerome Tang says Hi).  

 

Tang is such an ironic example.  Is he an elite coach, or is he the benefactor of an administration that allowed him to sign Keontae Johnson?  And even if he proves over time he is 100% the real deal, for every Tang there are 20 Doc Sadlers (good but not elite). 

 

Coaching at Nebraska is really, really, really hard.  We have no tradition, so recruits don't want to come here.  The only way to overcome that stigma is to win a lot of games.  But it is very hard to win a lot of games without first getting the good recruits.  It is a death spiral.

 

With that said, obviously the right coach can overcome the death spiral.  As tcp points out, the elite coaches of the past have brought programs out of the ashes.  It certainly can be done, but there are a LOT of coaches in college basketball history, but very, very few Coach Ks or Coach Orrs.  Fred at least took a P5 program that had been struggling for years (even though it had some past history of success) and massively turned it around.  It is interesting to note that Fred's successor, Steve Prohm, managed to continue the success for his first 2 years (how much of this was carry-over from Fred's players and Fred's coaching of those players?), but in Prohm's 3rd -6th years, his conference records were:  4-14; 9-9; 5-13; 0-18 (combined 18-54).  

 

Many on this board think Fred's calm demeanor on the sideline means he doesn't care.  I strongly disagree.  Fred is an ordinary athlete who was a star in college and had a long NBA career.  He didn't reach his levels of success by being disinterested.  He is a fierce competitor, and I think he has been humbled over these first 3 years at NU, and I am counting on his competitive spirit to drive him to do whatever is necessary to improve this program. 

 

There is one other factor that is huge in all of this, but none of us are talking about--NIL.  I don't know the status of NIL for the basketball team right now.  Obviously there is some NIL going on, because we have heard stories of Walker and other players.  But how strong is the NIL program for Husker Hoops athletes and recruits?  I do know that the 1890 Collective (which is signing a lot of the football recruits) only serves football and volleyball.  I believe there is a different collective for the basketball team, but I never hear about it and have no idea if it is still going or how strong it is. If the hoops NIL collective is not active and strong, then all of this coach talk is meaningless. Nebraska has too many obstacles to overcome already.  It must have an NIL program that at least meets, if not exceeds, it peers.  If it does not, then it doesn't matter who the coach is, this program will not succeed.

Edited January 31, 2023 by NUdiehard

[FredsSlacks]

trev either needs to commit to him long term or let him go. i don't see the benefit of just leaving things in limbo after this year. recruiting has already started to dry up.