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Nebraska Bubble Watch

Donkey

By Donkey
in The Haymarket Hardwood

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HuskerFever
HuskerFever

It is my goal that by the end of January, we can confidently change this thread title to "Nebraska Selection Sunday Seed Watch."

throwback
throwback

Agree that NCAAs are always ultimate goal.   And some years, a successful NIT run can help a team/program going forward. Spit balling, but maybe if the '13-14 team had gone on an NIT run ins

hskr4life
hskr4life

Heres the thing man... yes we don’t have Copeland.  However, we certainly have the tools to compete.  We were leading Purdue AT Purdue, we just beat Minnesota and Northwestern without Copeland.  

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huskerbaseball13

huskerbaseball13

Posted
Posted
11 hours ago, Cazzie22 said:

Right now, I would be happy to make the tournament field.

 

I know this is Nebrasketball and we’ve never won a ncaa tourney game....but our goal should be higher than that with this group no? I will be disappointed if we don’t get the monkey off our back this year.  

 

Barring a pretty large collapse it should be a given that this team goes dancing.  Just have to hope for some good matchups come March. 

hskr4life

hskr4life

Posted
Posted
12 hours ago, KearneyMan said:

Sorry to be a Debby Downer but we won't make the tournament!!

 

 

Where have you been all this year!?!? Life just hasn’t been the same without you.  I’ve missed you.  No one to downvote... no posts to laugh at because they are so crazy... has our bar for this really increased to two losses in a row instead of every loss?  Do better KMan.

HuskerFever

HuskerFever

Posted
Posted
36 minutes ago, Huskerone said:

So Ohio State just lost at Rutgers tonight.  I wonder when the fire the coach, or bubble watch threads start on their message boards? ?

 

Maryland already had theirs before they beat a ranked opponent in front of a crowd of what seemed like around 2,000 people.

Donkey

Donkey

Posted
  • Author
Posted
2 2 Michigan Big Ten 17-0 3-0 2-0 12-0 0-0
7 7 Michigan St. Big Ten 15-2 4-1 2-1 9-0 0-0
10 10 Nebraska Big Ten 13-4 2-3 2-1 8-0 1-0
17 20 Purdue Big Ten 11-6 1-4 2-2 8-0 0-0
18 17 Maryland Big Ten 15-3 3-1 1-0 11-2 0-0
20 19 Wisconsin Big Ten 11-6 3-3 2-1 6-2 0-0
27 28 Iowa Big Ten 14-3 1-2 3-0 10-1 0-0
31 30 Indiana Big Ten 12-5 1-4 1-0 10-1 0-0
36 35 Ohio St. Big Ten 12-4 3-2 1-0 8-2 0-0
48 45 Minnesota Big Ten 13-3 1-2 4-0 8-1 0-0
58 58 Northwestern Big Ten 10-7 0-3 2-1 8-3 0-0
83 81 Penn St. Big Ten 7-10 1-5 1-2 5-3 0-0
126 125 Illinois Big Ten 4-12 0-4 0-4 4-4 0-0
131 113 Rutgers Big Ten 8-8 1-5 0-0 7-3 0-0

 

Remaining Games:

 

Home: MSU; tOSU; Wisconsin; Maryland; Minnesota; Northwestern; Purdue; Iowa

 

Away: Rutgers; Illinois, Purdue; PSU; Michigan; MSU

 

Conference Record: 3-3 (2-0 home; 1-3 road).

My original calculations had losing both Michigan State games.  This Michigan State game could be huge for momentum as the remaining schedule is favorable until the last (back-to-back) road games against Michigan State and Michigan (followed by a closeout home game against Iowa).  The Purdue road game could be the difference between 4-6 and 5-5.  Depending on tonight's results, I now can see a 13-7 or 14-6 conference record.  I like playing Rutgers after a tough Michigan State game.

Huskerpapa

Huskerpapa

Posted
Posted
1 hour ago, jimmykc said:

Oddly, I see us either laying a gigantic egg tonight....or winning. I do not think we will lose if the game is close.

I certainly HOPE that we win big.  But I have a feeling it may be a rock fight to the end tonight. Of course if it is close all the way to the end, I may end up waking up in an emergency room.

Donkey

Donkey

Posted
  • Author
Posted (edited)

Remaining Games:

 

Quad 1 record: 2-4

 

Home: tOSU; Wisconsin; Maryland; Minnesota; Northwestern; Purdue; Iowa

 

Away: Rutgers; Illinois, Purdue; PSU; Michigan; MSU

 

Conference Record: 3-4 (2-1 home; 1-3 road).

 

This link has all of the Quad 1 wins last year by school. https://herosports.com/college-basketball/bracketology-ncaa-team-sheet-quadrant-1-wins-michigan-ahah

 

4 Quad 1 wins seems to be the tourney bubble with 5 of 9 getting into the tournament.  Georgia and Baylor had losing conference records.  Marquette was identified by the committee, with Notre Dame, as the next two out.  USC was likely the victim of a bad conference.  Of the 5 of got in, Arizona, Gonzaga won their respective conference tournaments.  of the remaining 3 at large qualifiers, Wichita State, Clemson,  

 

For the most part 5 Quad 1 wins gets you into the tourney.  Oklahoma St (5 wins) and LSU (6 wins) were the only schools with more Quad 1 wins who were left out of the tourney, likely because both has losing conference records.  I really believe the committee let Oklahoma (6 wins) in with a losing record because it did not want to look bad after listing Oklahoma in the early power rankings.

 

Oddly enough, all of the at large play-in games were between schools with 3 Quad 1 wins.  Syracuse, UCLA, and Arizona St seem to be rewarded for their strong non-conference records while St. Bonaventure had a 8 and 12 game winning streak during the season.     

 

Right now, Iowa, MSU, Michigan, Purdue (twice), Wisconsin, and Maryland are potential Quad 1 wins.  3-4 in those games and 5-0 in the remaining games (8-4 total) would leave Nebraska at 12-8 in the conference and safely in the tourney.  I could see a scenario of 11-9 getting Nebraska into the tourney provided the additional loss results from a Quad 1 game.  

Edited by Donkey
rwmctrofholz

rwmctrofholz

Posted
Posted
12 hours ago, jimmykc said:

Be patient. Kearneyman won't visit again until after a loss...which hopefully may take a while.

 

That's funny.  I was just about to post that I gave him credit for leaving up his:  "Sorry to be a Debby Downer but we won't make the tournament!!"  post.

 

Him (or her) not deleting it is the ultimate double down if you ask me. 

 

Side note:  the MSU bigs hitting those two jumpers to start the game changed everything in my view; had to respect it from then on.  Bummer.

  • 4 weeks later...
Nebrasketball1979

Nebrasketball1979

Posted
Posted

Might be time to bump this thread after a win and a tad of optimism.  We are 14-11, with six left in the regular season.  Win against Northwestern and go on the road and win at Penn St. and we have a fascinating 4 games to end the year, all against Q1 teams.  Now, we don't have a ton of evidence to suggest this team is capable of rattling off three in a row but maybe getting that monkey off the back loosens this team up and gets things rolling in the right direction.  If Nebrasketball has shown us anything during the Miles tenure, it's that we are on one big roller coaster ride and hopefully this is the beginning of heading up.

 

In any event, I think our magic number is 20 wins.  I think if we go 4-2 over the last six and finish 8-12 in the conference, then I think we need to at least win 2 in Chicago.  At a minimum, a 4-2 finish plus 2 in Chicago is 3 Quad 1 wins and 3 Q2 wins.  We would be firmly on the bubble at that point.

 

Anyways, we have one down.  Time to rinse and repeat a couple of times and hope that the last 4 games of the season have serious meaning.

hskr4life

hskr4life

Posted
Posted
2 minutes ago, Nebrasketball1979 said:

Might be time to bump this thread after a win and a tad of optimism.  We are 14-11, with six left in the regular season.  Win against Northwestern and go on the road and win at Penn St. and we have a fascinating 4 games to end the year, all against Q1 teams.  Now, we don't have a ton of evidence to suggest this team is capable of rattling off three in a row but maybe getting that monkey off the back loosens this team up and gets things rolling in the right direction.  If Nebrasketball has shown us anything during the Miles tenure, it's that we are on one big roller coaster ride and hopefully this is the beginning of heading up.

 

In any event, I think our magic number is 20 wins.  I think if we go 4-2 over the last six and finish 8-12 in the conference, then I think we need to at least win 2 in Chicago.  At a minimum, a 4-2 finish plus 2 in Chicago is 3 Quad 1 wins and 3 Q2 wins.  We would be firmly on the bubble at that point.

 

Anyways, we have one down.  Time to rinse and repeat a couple of times and hope that the last 4 games of the season have serious meaning.

 

The good:

 

- We have a chance... legit chance... to win 3 in a row and get to 16-11.

- Do that and you have 4 Q1 games to end the year.  Big big chances.

- We have a chance with 19, but I’d need 20 to feel really safe.

- We’ll have a good chance at a win in the BTT by most likely playing Day 2.

- We have a good record against other bubble teams (Indiana, Minny, Seton Hall, Creighton, Clemson)

 

The bad:

-Losses to Rutgers and Illinois.  Even just grabbing those two has us singing a lot different tune right now.

-PSU is on the road.  That’s a toss up for us every time.

-We are as likely to be cold as we are hot.

-Depth

-Turned off National media for most part.  We’ve lost a lot of umph outside of guys like Andy’s Katz.  Hopefully we can Oklahoma our way in.  But we don’t have the Tre Young show on our team.

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