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Nebraska Bubble Watch

Donkey

By Donkey
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hskr4life

hskr4life

Posted
Posted
2 minutes ago, HuskerFever said:

Win 3 more games in any way or fashion, conference play or Big Ten tournament, and we're putting ourselves in the conversation.

 

What a strange year.

I’d feel a lot more confident with 4... but I believe we should be in the conversation with 3.  Bubble is extremely weak!  Extremely!

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HuskerFever
HuskerFever

It is my goal that by the end of January, we can confidently change this thread title to "Nebraska Selection Sunday Seed Watch."

throwback
throwback

Agree that NCAAs are always ultimate goal.   And some years, a successful NIT run can help a team/program going forward. Spit balling, but maybe if the '13-14 team had gone on an NIT run ins

hskr4life
hskr4life

Heres the thing man... yes we don’t have Copeland.  However, we certainly have the tools to compete.  We were leading Purdue AT Purdue, we just beat Minnesota and Northwestern without Copeland.  

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AuroranHusker

AuroranHusker

Posted
Posted
57 minutes ago, Handy Johnson said:

We all talk about MUST win games, well beating Michigan or Michigan St on the road will be a tall order making that Purdue home game about as MUST win as it gets... last real chance to beat a good team (sorry Iowa) when you won’t be a huge dog...

 

Let's win the next one. At PSU is always a dog-fight. And, then go from there... GBR !!!

 

 

HolyBobpilgrimage

HolyBobpilgrimage

Posted
Posted (edited)
9 hours ago, hskr4life said:

I’d feel a lot more confident with 4... but I believe we should be in the conversation with 3.  Bubble is extremely weak!  Extremely!

listen, this is all possible, and cool and all, but it all  doesn't matter if we get to the dance and we don't have the tools to beat anybody. these are all top teams that make the tournament, and I'd rather have an equipped team I can feel confident about when we make it again...I'd rather have NIT in this situation, strange as it sounds, unless they really show me something in the final weeks. I don't think we can beat ranked teams on a nightly basis in the tourney(and don't fancy getting blown out and embarrassed on national TV once again), good as the Big ten is, at the moment. That could all change of course.

Also, I'm thinking this way because I don't want an improbable (undeserving team) bid, and miles getting to stick around....the future health of the program needs new leadership imo.

This all seems crazy, I'm sure.

Edited by HolyBobpilgrimage
throwback

throwback

Posted
Posted
19 minutes ago, jimmykc said:

You would rather go to the NIT? Does that do anything for the program? Better ask Pat Chambers.

Exactly - it's NCAA or bust. This large senior class might even turn down an NIT bid ... and even if they didn't, we'd almost certainly have an interim coach during any NIT games.

 

Some years, an NIT run can be beneficial. With the program in its current state, though, the NIT does nothing for us.

 

RedEyedFanatic

RedEyedFanatic

Posted
Posted (edited)
On 2/14/2019 at 12:29 PM, throwback said:

Agree and a fair point.

 

However, if we get to 18 wins, that means 5 of our Q1/Q2 wins would have come after he was injured - nearly half of them. On paper, that looks pretty good over a 10-11-game stretch without a key player.

 

Unfortunately, it's going to be very difficult to find enough offense without Cope. Not Hail Mary vs Northwestern tough - maybe 57-yd FG by Alex Henery tough. ?

And last night Roby looked a lot like Suh stomping on a qb's face on the way to the end zone

Edited by RedEyedFanatic
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Lifetimesker

Lifetimesker

Posted
Posted
Just now, throwback said:

Exactly - it's NCAA or bust. This large senior class might even turn down an NIT bid ... and even if they didn't, we'd almost certainly have an interim coach during any NIT games.

 

Some years, an NIT run can be beneficial. With the program in its current state, though, the NIT does nothing for us.

 

Shouldn’t the NCAA’s always be the ultimate goal regardless? I would always trade a NIT win for a chance to lose a game in the dance. Maybe I’m looking at this wrong!

throwback

throwback

Posted
Posted
10 hours ago, HuskerFever said:

Win 3 more games in any way or fashion, conference play or Big Ten tournament, and we're putting ourselves in the conversation.

 

What a strange year.

Agree - but I think those 3 have to all be Quad 1, otherwise we probably need 4, like 2 Quad 1 and 2 Quad 2. 

 

So if we can get 3 of the next 5 -- and PSU stays as a Quad 1 -- we'd be in good shape heading in the B1G tourney.  Long odds, though. I'd give us maybe 12-15% shot of winning 3 of the next 5.

 

Need PSU (#70 as of yesterday) to stay in Top 75, need Okla St (#87) to stay in Top 100 ... and it'd be a big help if Illinois (#80) could claw into the Top 75. 

 

Basically, we need a lot to go our way, plus control our own business. But we're due some good luck, right? 

throwback

throwback

Posted
Posted (edited)
20 minutes ago, Lifetimesker said:

Shouldn’t the NCAA’s always be the ultimate goal regardless? I would always trade a NIT win for a chance to lose a game in the dance. Maybe I’m looking at this wrong!

Agree that NCAAs are always ultimate goal.

 

And some years, a successful NIT run can help a team/program going forward. Spit balling, but maybe if the '13-14 team had gone on an NIT run instead of losing to Baylor in the NCAAs,  maybe the '14-15 season is different. I doubt it, but maybe.

 

Regardless, if that was an NIT team, even one that made it to New York, we wouldn't have had No Sit Sunday, the win at Top 10 MSU, the excitement of seeing NU's name pop up on Selection Sunday, etc. I'd take those events/memories over a couple of NIT wins any day., even with a first-round NCAA loss 

 

Does anyone remember NU's last NIT win? Off the top of my head, I don't. I had to look it up. But I can remember every NU NCAA game the past 35 years ... even the one against W Kentucky where it wasn't televised locally. (Granted, there aren't that many NCAA games to remember.) 

 

Even when thinking back to winning the NIT in '96, my first thought isn't how much fun that run was - it's how that team squandered its real chance, as it could've been a Sweet 16 NCAA team. I appreciate the NIT title, but it's more about what could have been with that team.

 

So I'm always taking an NCAA bid over an NIT run. Just how I look at it.

 

 

EDIT - I may have misread your post the first time, so I'll clarify - agree that NCAA is always the ultimate goal. But if in the end you don't make the NCAA, you nearly always take the NIT bid - it's not the goal, but it's better than sitting at home. This year, though, I think we might turn down an NIT bid, as it does nothing for the program in its current position.

Edited by throwback
throwback

throwback

Posted
Posted
5 minutes ago, HuskerFever said:

 

Was it that home win against Charlotte? Like, I don't know, sometime in the late '00s?

You got it - Charlotte at the Devaney Center in '08. I drew a complete blank on that one.

hskr4life

hskr4life

Posted
Posted
1 hour ago, HolyBobpilgrimage said:

listen, this is all possible, and cool and all, but it all  doesn't matter if we get to the dance and we don't have the tools to beat anybody. these are all top teams that make the tournament, and I'd rather have an equipped team I can feel confident about when we make it again...I'd rather have NIT in this situation, strange as it sounds, unless they really show me something in the final weeks. I don't think we can beat ranked teams on a nightly basis in the tourney(and don't fancy getting blown out and embarrassed on national TV once again), good as the Big ten is, at the moment. That could all change of course.

Also, I'm thinking this way because I don't want an improbable (undeserving team) bid, and miles getting to stick around....the future health of the program needs new leadership imo.

This all seems crazy, I'm sure.

 

Heres the thing man... yes we don’t have Copeland.  However, we certainly have the tools to compete.  We were leading Purdue AT Purdue, we just beat Minnesota and Northwestern without Copeland.

 

If you make the dance... I don’t care what year it is... you deserve it.  If we make it this year, it means we kicked adversity in the chops and beat multiple ranked teams in our final 6 OR we went on a run to beat multiple ranked teams in the BTT.  Either way, we’ll deserve it.

 

Give me NCAA or nothing every year.  Screw the NIT.  No one cares, no one remembers, and not one player WANTS to be there.

 

If Miles sticks around, it’s because he deserves it.  It’s because he and the team did what everyone else said was impossible one week ago.  If the only two NCAA tournaments I can remember are under one coach... give me that coach and an “unhealthy” program any day.

HuskerFever

HuskerFever

Posted
Posted
4 minutes ago, hskr4life said:

If the only two NCAA tournaments I can remember are under one coach... give me that coach and an “unhealthy” program any day.

 

The "I hate my job, but it pays well so I'll deal with it instead of searching for greener pastures" philosophy works for some and not for others. I wonder what the overall sentiment is from the rest of the board.

hskr4life

hskr4life

Posted
Posted
4 minutes ago, HuskerFever said:

 

The "I hate my job, but it pays well so I'll deal with it instead of searching for greener pastures" philosophy works for some and not for others. I wonder what the overall sentiment is from the rest of the board.

 

True. But that’s assuming a lot here at the end of the season for us to reach NCAA two.  Lots of teams go through rough spells.  Nebraska seems like it can NEVER recover however.  If we do this year, that’s a positive sign I think.

Huskerpapa

Huskerpapa

Posted
Posted

I just worry about Penn State.  I also know that this staff cares; they are coaching, leading, directing, recruiting and whatever else it takes to win the next game on the schedule and beyond.  The least I can do is support them, cheer them on, hope for the best, be upset/sad/mad when we lose and happy when we win.  It just seems inhuman to do otherwise, if you are a fan.

BannedAccount

BannedAccount

Posted
Posted
14 hours ago, HolyBobpilgrimage said:

listen, this is all possible, and cool and all, but it all  doesn't matter if we get to the dance and we don't have the tools to beat anybody. these are all top teams that make the tournament, and I'd rather have an equipped team I can feel confident about when we make it again...I'd rather have NIT in this situation, strange as it sounds, unless they really show me something in the final weeks. I don't think we can beat ranked teams on a nightly basis in the tourney(and don't fancy getting blown out and embarrassed on national TV once again), good as the Big ten is, at the moment. That could all change of course.

Also, I'm thinking this way because I don't want an improbable (undeserving team) bid, and miles getting to stick around....the future health of the program needs new leadership imo.

This all seems crazy, I'm sure.

Even if they made the NIT i find it hard they would go.  It serves no purpose to this team or the future whatsoever.

HuskerActuary

HuskerActuary

Posted
Posted
8 hours ago, coughunter said:

Even if they made the NIT i find it hard they would go.  It serves no purpose to this team or the future whatsoever.

What? A team with the history of Nebraska does not turn down an NIT appearance. Heck, Kentucky played in the NIT about five years ago.

Donkey

Donkey

Posted
  • Author
Posted

Quad 1 record: 2-8

 

Home: Purdue; Iowa

 

Away: PSU; Michigan; MSU

 

Conference Record: 5-10

 

I keep looking over last year's selections versus Quad 1 wins.  This SOS is very tough and could help Nebraska.  Oklahoma St (5) and LSU (6) were left out while Oklahoma (6) got in.  All had 8-10 conference records.  The biggest difference I can see differentiating this group is the Non-Con schedule.  LSU had 3 losses with one being to Stephen F Austin at home.   Oklahoma State had a lot of easy wins.  

 

I could see an Oklahoma type path if Nebraska goes 4-2.  All of the above are Quad 1 wins.  It will be hard for the Committee to ignore 6 Quad 1 wins.  A 3-3 record would require a deep run into the BIG tourney.  2-4 or worse and Nebraska is NIT bound.  

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