Will they or won't they: A poll

[Norm Peterson]

Will the games go on?

[jayschool]

U of Iowa officials have already told us to start planning online teaching for the fall. Just in case. To be more specific in my case, Sports Writing class has been moved to Spring 2021. It's usually a fall class.

Edited April 22, 2020 by jayschool

[HuskerFever]

Professional leagues? Yes. But without fans.

 

Collegiate leagues? No. Because the NCAA has to stand by their statement that these are *student* athletes. Unless students are on campus, then student athletes will not be on campus.

[Norm Peterson]

I think the public's tolerance for risk vs. continued willingness to accept limitations on personal freedom will flip by the beginning of August, if not beforehand. People are getting more and more stir crazy. They want to get back to work; they want to get back to their social lives. There will come a point in time in the not too distant future where I predict people are going to think the risk of getting the disease is not significant enough to justify remaining home from things they want to do.

 

I think you can talk people into making small sacrifices for an extended period of time or really big sacrifices for a small amount of time. But I don't think the public has the stomach for really big sacrifices for an extended period of time unless people are dropping like flies. So ... I think the season goes off as planned. There might be a slight delay if schools don't open up to students until the start of classes. That puts programs behind in conditioning and they might make up for it by pushing back the start of the season just a touch.

 

But I'm going to say it'll be a go and people will be in the mood for some entertainment.

[Art Vandalay]

5 hours ago, jayschool said:

U of Iowa officials have already told us to start planning online teaching for the fall. Just in case. To be more specific in my case, Sports Writing class has been moved to Spring 2021. It's usually a fall class.

If they go online classes they should prepare to lower tuition.

 

Im with Norm, people are already turning. Plus biggest thing to me is getting kids back in school this fall. We have to figure that out somehow. K-12 kids can’t go another year with out school and that is what is really happening now in most school districts.

Edited April 23, 2020 by Art Vandalay

[Navin R. Johnson]

My fear, and some are predicting this, is that it will hit hard again during the winter flu season which of course would cancel basketball.  I can live without football, but to miss the boys state basketball tournament, the NCAA's, the MLB season and then to have to miss college hoops and it starts over again would be tough to handle.

[Norm Peterson]

Relevant tweet:

 

[Norm Peterson]

By the way, I just now saw that tweet above. I posted this thread before I saw the tweet, so it didn't influence my answer. But it's interesting nonetheless.

[OmahaHusker]

1 hour ago, Norm Peterson said:

I think the public's tolerance for risk vs. continued willingness to accept limitations on personal freedom will flip by the beginning of August, if not beforehand. People are getting more and more stir crazy. They want to get back to work; they want to get back to their social lives. There will come a point in time in the not too distant future where I predict people are going to think the risk of getting the disease is not significant enough to justify remaining home from things they want to do.

 

I think you can talk people into making small sacrifices for an extended period of time or really big sacrifices for a small amount of time. But I don't think the public has the stomach for really big sacrifices for an extended period of time unless people are dropping like flies. So ... I think the season goes off as planned. There might be a slight delay if schools don't open up to students until the start of classes. That puts programs behind in conditioning and they might make up for it by pushing back the start of the season just a touch.

 

But I'm going to say it'll be a go and people will be in the mood for some entertainment.

 

Couldn't agree more, Norm. The risk of getting the disease will not outweigh the desire to live like you'd want in August like it is now for most people. 

[cipsucks]

Not only does basketball start on time, football will as well.  

[HuskerFever]

I could be wrong, but I just don't see even professional leagues allowing fans to attend games for quite some time. Possibly even as long as the end of 2020.

 

We'll have to see how the data changes as time goes on, but just recognize that there's a possibility that there will be a new norm for up to a year or or (I liked the old Norm better). Possibly restaurants having to rearrange layouts to allow more distance, schools and offices checking your temperature at the door, etc.

[Handy Johnson]

Not that this is completely analogous, but the Celerion Research Clinic in Lincoln has CDC approval to resume NEW studies beginning in May (they had been suspended)

Edited April 22, 2020 by Handy Johnson

[Navin R. Johnson]

From what I have seen, college administrators are saying if kids are not on campus for regular classes, sports will not be played.  Schools will be the last thing that will reopen and most colleges and high schools are telling teachers to be ready to teach from home just in case.  I'm optimistic things will be back to normal at the end of summer, but something inside also tells me we will not see the usual start to the school year. 

[hskr4life]

As someone who was recently furloughed, I hope beyond hope that things start getting back to normal.  We have to find a way-- a smart way-- to get things going again by August.  I am fine with spectatorsless sports.  That will be plenty of TV $$$$.  I don't see any reason why athletes couldn't be allowed on campus even if there are no in-person classes.  

[cornfed24-7]

I am not optimistic. I think college administrators are going to be EXTREMELY cautious. Realistically, as modeling shows now, nearly all states will be "open" by June 1st.

 

Six to eight weeks after that is when you would except to see an noticeable increase/2nd wave of Covid cases. That puts us about August 1st. Not a lot of time to make a decision. It will be interesting to see what happens in Georgia. 

 

Another factor will be which schools will agree to open. What if the Big Ten Schools say yes let's open but the Pac Ten says nope?

 

Also, it was mentioned above the expectation is we will see an influx of covid cases that coincides with the flu season. Just some gee whiz info for you, but nearly every year during flu season hospitals get near or at capacity because of patients with respiratory issue. Now we are going to add another virus to compete for the same limited resources. 

 

Just don't see administrators taking the gamble. 

[Navin R. Johnson]

24 minutes ago, hskr4life said:

As someone who was recently furloughed, I hope beyond hope that things start getting back to normal.  We have to find a way-- a smart way-- to get things going again by August.  I am fine with spectatorsless sports.  That will be plenty of TV $$$$.  I don't see any reason why athletes couldn't be allowed on campus even if there are no in-person classes.  

 

The general idea that if it is not safe enough for students to be in class together it is not safe to be on the field or court together. I don't see administrators risking it either.

[Dead Dog Alley]

46 minutes ago, Navin R. Johnson said:

 

The general idea that if it is not safe enough for students to be in class together it is not safe to be on the field or court together. I don't see administrators risking it either.

 

The flaw in that argument is that a campus with 500 students on it is 99% safer than a campus with 25,000 students on it.  I don't know if that logic will prevail, however.  While there will be reasonable people on both sides there will also be alarmists and opportunists trying to use the situation to attain their own goals.

 

If campuses aren't open in September, what are the chances they'll be open in January, if a "second wave" hits and doesn't fizzle out?  There would be a few factors that improve the odds - there will more people who have recovered and are hopefully immune reducing the susceptible fraction of the population, and therefore how fast it can spread, but its doubtful there would be enough; there will be greater testing resources available, but its almost impossible to believe that every single person will be able to be tested on a regular basis; therapeutic responses to the illness will improve, but it remains a question as to how effective they can be.  Would that add up to a situation where administrators would take the risk?

 

So unless enough of the population forces the issue and we decide to be like Sweden and get this over with, and accept the results associated with that decision, there's a chance that next season won't happen.  I wouldn't consider it highly likely, but still it is possible.

[Dean Smith]

We can’t be like Sweden. It’s far too late. We are working on flattening the curve so we don’t overwhelm our medical system. Sweden’s medical system and their social safety net is so robust they feel they can handle the curve without shutting anything down. And they have IKEA, and ABBA. At the same time 80% of Americans felt they couldn’t cover a $1000 emergency before the pandemic and we are going through what will be far great than a $1000 emergency for the majority of Americans. 
I think going to a sporting event would be a great moral boost for many Americans but how many Americans will be able to afford going to game when they start playing again?

[tcp]

1 hour ago, Dean Smith said:

We can’t be like Sweden. It’s far too late. We are working on flattening the curve so we don’t overwhelm our medical system. Sweden’s medical system and their social safety net is so robust they feel they can handle the curve without shutting anything down. And they have IKEA, and ABBA. At the same time 80% of Americans felt they couldn’t cover a $1000 emergency before the pandemic and we are going through what will be far great than a $1000 emergency for the majority of Americans. 
I think going to a sporting event would be a great moral boost for many Americans but how many Americans will be able to afford going to game when they start playing again?

 

 

sweden is currently re-thinking their strategy due to a whopping 8 percent fatal rate. 

 

a year from now, a lot of people are going to wonder why they ever cared so much about so little. 

 

 

 

 

 

[HuskerFever]

8 hours ago, Dead Dog Alley said:

Would that add up to a situation where administrators would take the risk?

 

This.

 

I clump professional leagues into this as well. Is the league willing to risk starting up their sport again, even without fans, and deal with the backlash and lawsuits should any of their players contract the virus and die, even if quarantine measures were in place.

[Dean Smith]

7 hours ago, tcp said:

 

 

sweden is currently re-thinking their strategy due to a whopping 8 percent fatal rate. 

 

a year from now, a lot of people are going to wonder why they ever cared so much about so little. 

 

 

 

 

 

I over simplified things and so did you. They did everything everyone else did to flatten the curve, only their actions focused on individual responsibility. People were encouraged to work from home and they already had one of the highest rates for that before the outbreak. One big reason they have the higher rates you referenced is that Sweden counts at home deaths as well instead of just hospital deaths like everyone else. And their deaths per million rate is much lower then nearby countries like France, Belgium and the Netherlands who had lock downs. When they made their recommendations to the public they also took into account people’s mental health as their system focuses on a broader sense of well being then most countries. Their last report predicts Stockholm (where the vast majority of their cases are located - low population density everywhere else in the country) will reach herd immunity in a couple of weeks. Their higher  mortality rates are all located in elderly homes. They are currently studying what recommendations were not followed that lead to this and what changes need to be made. It has not been life as usual there. Actually most countries “where do we go from here” plans look like what Sweden started with. We should not have taken their approach because we have higher population density, many more urban areas, and we do not posses their health care system and robust social safety net. We won’t know for sure about anything until this is all over but right now their healthcare system has not come anywhere close to being overwhelmed and they still have IKEA. 

[busticket]

All I know is my girlfriend has a compromised immune system so she won’t touch me until this is over.

 

I REALLY hope basketball starts on time.....

[tcp]

1 hour ago, Dean Smith said:

I over simplified things and so did you. They did everything everyone else did to flatten the curve, only their actions focused on individual responsibility. People were encouraged to work from home and they already had one of the highest rates for that before the outbreak. One big reason they have the higher rates you referenced is that Sweden counts at home deaths as well instead of just hospital deaths like everyone else. And their deaths per million rate is much lower then nearby countries like France, Belgium and the Netherlands who had lock downs. When they made their recommendations to the public they also took into account people’s mental health as their system focuses on a broader sense of well being then most countries. Their last report predicts Stockholm (where the vast majority of their cases are located - low population density everywhere else in the country) will reach herd immunity in a couple of weeks. Their higher  mortality rates are all located in elderly homes. They are currently studying what recommendations were not followed that lead to this and what changes need to be made. It has not been life as usual there. Actually most countries “where do we go from here” plans look like what Sweden started with. We should not have taken their approach because we have higher population density, many more urban areas, and we do not posses their health care system and robust social safety net. We won’t know for sure about anything until this is all over but right now their healthcare system has not come anywhere close to being overwhelmed and they still have IKEA. 

 

Holding Sweden up as a positive example is pointless, other than to acknowledge that their superior welfare state has mitigated much of the impact of their approach. I would never defend the ludicrous approach the US has taken--it's criminal--but neither would I hold up a socially libertarian approach, either, even granting that Swedes are collectively far more mature than Americans. 

 

Pandemics are brutal on every system, which is why they're rightfully feared. 

 

And don't worry about oversimplification. It's a message board,  not a dissertation proposal. 

[Norm Peterson]

I think we've drifted into a political discussion here, which I thought everyone had agreed not to do a long time ago. All I was curious about was whether people think we'll have a basketball season next year. I had no intention of this devolving into a discussion about whether our government has handled it well or not. I think most people will view the government's response through their ideological/political lens, so I'd respectfully ask people to refrain from going there.

 

Edit: By "next year" I mean the one that would ordinarily start this coming fall and would end next year.

Edited April 23, 2020 by Norm Peterson

[Dean Smith]

6 hours ago, tcp said:

 

Holding Sweden up as a positive example is pointless, other than to acknowledge that their superior welfare state has mitigated much of the impact of their approach. I would never defend the ludicrous approach the US has taken--it's criminal--but neither would I hold up a socially libertarian approach, either, even granting that Swedes are collectively far more mature than Americans. 

 

Pandemics are brutal on every system, which is why they're rightfully feared. 

 

And don't worry about oversimplification. It's a message board,  not a dissertation proposal. 

That’s how this started. My point was we could not be Sweden. We missed that boat along time ago and we have very different demographics.  And then I guess I was trying to point out Sweden did not throw their people under the bus. They are not taking a libertarian approach.  They have made lots of changes and their economy is suffering as well.