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Pregame Discussion: Nebraska (9-7) vs. Michigan (11-5) - 1/14/17

49r

By 49r
in The Haymarket Hardwood

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49r

49r

Posted
Posted

Two wins separate us from Michigan, and with the 4th overall SOS compared to their 127th overall SOS (201 non-con), this game may be closer than some think.

 

2017 Schedule help.gif

Game Plan | Opponent Tracker

Date Rk Opponent Result     Location Record Conf  
Fri Nov 11 31 337 Howard W, 76-58 65   Home 1-0    
Sun Nov 13 31 160 IUPUI W, 77-65 67   Home 2-0    
Thu Nov 17 36 38 Marquette W, 79-61 73   Neutral 3-0   a.gif
Fri Nov 18 26 26 SMU W, 76-54 58   Neutral 4-0   a.gif
Wed Nov 23 15 33 South Carolina L, 61-46 62   Away 4-1   a.gif
Sat Nov 26 26 233 Mount St. Mary's W, 64-47 59   Home 5-1    
Wed Nov 30 25 42 Virginia Tech L, 73-70 64   Home 5-2   b.gif
Sat Dec 3 26 293 Kennesaw St. W, 82-55 60   Home 6-2    
Tue Dec 6 27 80 Texas W, 53-50 61   Home 7-2    
Sat Dec 10 27 13 UCLA L, 102-84 64   Away 7-3   a.gif
Tue Dec 13 32 321 Central Arkansas W, 97-53 68   Home 8-3    
Sat Dec 17 31 315 Maryland Eastern Shore W, 98-49 67   Home 9-3    
Thu Dec 22 27 144 Furman W, 68-62 60   Home 10-3    
Sun Jan 1 31 78 Iowa L, 86-83 71 OT Away 10-4 0-1 a.gif
Wed Jan 4 33 85 Penn St. W, 72-69 65   Home 11-4 1-1  
Sat Jan 7 31 54 Maryland L, 77-70 62   Home 11-5 1-2 b.gif
Wed Jan 11   72 Illinois L, 66-65 59 49% Away   × a.gif

 

 

Depth chart over the past 5 games

PG SG SF PF C
10 Derrick Walton
6-1  190  Sr
77%
 
12 Muhammad-Ali Abdur-Rahkman
6-4  190  Jr
57%
 
21 Zak Irvin
6-6  215  Sr
55%
 
5 DJ Wilson
6-10  240  So
58%
 
13 Moritz Wagner
6-11  240  So
61%
 
3 Xavier Simpson
6-0  180  Fr
23%
 
21 Zak Irvin
6-6  215  Sr
34%
 
22 Duncan Robinson
6-8  215  Jr
39%
 
34 Mark Donnal
6-9  240  Sr
23%
 
5 DJ Wilson
6-10  240  So
27%
 
   
10 Derrick Walton
6-1  190  Sr
6%
  		   
22 Duncan Robinson
6-8  215  Jr
16%
 
34 Mark Donnal
6-9  240  Sr
7%
 
               
15 Jon Teske
7-0  245  Fr
5%
 

Most frequent lineups over the past 5 games help.gif

  PG SG SF PF C Pct
1
10 Derrick Walton
6-1  190  Sr
12 Muhammad-Ali Abdur-Rahkman
6-4  190  Jr
21 Zak Irvin
6-6  215  Sr
5 DJ Wilson
6-10  240  So
13 Moritz Wagner
6-11  240  So
26.2
 
2
10 Derrick Walton
6-1  190  Sr
21 Zak Irvin
6-6  215  Sr
22 Duncan Robinson
6-8  215  Jr
5 DJ Wilson
6-10  240  So
13 Moritz Wagner
6-11  240  So
20.6
 
3
10 Derrick Walton
6-1  190  Sr
12 Muhammad-Ali Abdur-Rahkman
6-4  190  Jr
21 Zak Irvin
6-6  215  Sr
34 Mark Donnal
6-9  240  Sr
5 DJ Wilson
6-10  240  So
8.5
 
4
10 Derrick Walton
6-1  190  Sr
21 Zak Irvin
6-6  215  Sr
22 Duncan Robinson
6-8  215  Jr
34 Mark Donnal
6-9  240  Sr
5 DJ Wilson
6-10  240  So
6.5
 
5
3 Xavier Simpson
6-0  180  Fr
21 Zak Irvin
6-6  215  Sr
22 Duncan Robinson
6-8  215  Jr
5 DJ Wilson
6-10  240  So
13 Moritz Wagner
6-11  240  So
4.2
 
6
10 Derrick Walton
6-1  190  Sr
12 Muhammad-Ali Abdur-Rahkman
6-4  190  Jr
21 Zak Irvin
6-6  215  Sr
22 Duncan Robinson
6-8  215  Jr
5 DJ Wilson
6-10  240  So
3.9
 
7
10 Derrick Walton
6-1  190  Sr
12 Muhammad-Ali Abdur-Rahkman
6-4  190  Jr
21 Zak Irvin
6-6  215  Sr
22 Duncan Robinson
6-8  215  Jr
34 Mark Donnal
6-9  240  Sr
3.4
 
8
10 Derrick Walton
6-1  190  Sr
12 Muhammad-Ali Abdur-Rahkman
6-4  190  Jr
21 Zak Irvin
6-6  215  Sr
22 Duncan Robinson
6-8  215  Jr
13 Moritz Wagner
6-11  240  So
2.7
 
9
3 Xavier Simpson
6-0  180  Fr
10 Derrick Walton
6-1  190  Sr
21 Zak Irvin
6-6  215  Sr
34 Mark Donnal
6-9  240  Sr
5 DJ Wilson
6-10  240  So
2.4
 
10
10 Derrick Walton
6-1  190  Sr
12 Muhammad-Ali Abdur-Rahkman
6-4  190  Jr
22 Duncan Robinson
6-8  215  Jr
5 DJ Wilson
6-10  240  So
13 Moritz Wagner
6-11  240  So
2.4
 
  UNKNOWN 3.9
Border thickness proportional to player %Poss, green shading proportional to 3PA/(.475*FTA+FGA)
Position designation is estimated by an algorithm and may not reflect reality.
hhcmatt

hhcmatt

Posted
Posted
2 hours ago, 49r said:

Pretty cool move from coach Belein, too:

 

 

 

It doesn't line up this smoothly but isn't that Spike Albrecht's scholarship that was no longer there because they had a PG they wanted instead?

Huskerpapa

Huskerpapa

Posted
Posted
45 minutes ago, NUtball said:

Gotta stay glued to the tall, lanky white guy, Robinson.  He killed NU last year.  Can't let him go off.

I remember that dude, I could not believe how he went off on us.

hhcmatt

hhcmatt

Posted
Posted

Michigan is yet other slow team that doesn't turn the ball over and makes 3s. Our defense will have its hands full.

We'll see what they do against Illinois but on defense Michigan has been torched this year, especially from the 3 and has been hemorrhaging offensive rebounds in conference.

 

 

UMhoops always has great coverage

big red22

big red22

Posted
Posted
1 hour ago, NUtball said:

Gotta stay glued to the tall, lanky white guy, Robinson.  He killed NU last year.  Can't let him go off.

The tall lenky white guy seems to always be our Achilles Heel.  And we wonder why we have fits with Creighton... The tall lenky white guy is 50% of their team :P

hhcmatt

hhcmatt

Posted
Posted

Oh boy

 

My hunch is that we throw McVeigh in for the starting lineup.

I could see Roby as well.

 

Michigan doesn't foul a ton so you can really think about playing Jake/Jordy and holding your breath. Can Jordy guard mobile bigs?

Horne of the bench makes more sense in this one. Could see him starting in any of the next 3 games though.

Is Fuller ready to play?

throwback

throwback

Posted
Posted

Yeah, I would bet on McVeigh starting too, especially going on the road. Would be nice to have someone who has some starting experience in the lineup, rather than throwing a freshman out there for his first start.

 

NU was going to have to really watch matchups in this game against Wagner anyway - now that becomes even tougher. Don't see any way Jordy can guard Wagner successfully for an extended period, so Jordy's minutes will have to be limited, even without Morrow available. Wagner is averaging 29 minutes in league games.

 

Need McVeigh & Roby to really rebound. I do like Roby's chances of guarding Wilson, so he may see extended minutes. 

 

I wonder how much 1-3-1 we'll see from NU - it's going to be tempting I'm sure without Morrow to try steal some possessions with a change-up zone, especially if Wagner is killing us - but Beilein knows that defense pretty well, so I wouldn't expect UM to have many problems against it. Ultimately, I don't think Miles tries it much, if at all, which really puts the pressure on our 4s and 5s to guard well without fouling.

 

NU has had no success against UM/Beilein - 0-6 with 5 double-digit losses since joining the B1G - going to be that much tougher without Morrow.

khoock

khoock

Posted
Posted
On Tuesday, January 10, 2017 at 2:57 PM, big red22 said:

The tall lenky white guy seems to always be our Achilles Heel.  And we wonder why we have fits with Creighton... The tall lenky white guy is 50% of their team :P

Not anymore. Their starting 5 is Big East official, only thing holding them back is the MVC leftovers coming off the bench.

brfrad

brfrad

Posted
Posted

Michigan is the slowest paced team in the Big 10.  They average 64.2 possessions per game.  By comparison, with 5 extra seconds, Doc's teams averaged 64.5 possessions in his 6 years in Lincoln.  They love the 3.  Hate the rim.  They attempt 45 % of their shots from 3.  They do not crash the offensive glass.  14th in the Big 10 in offensive rebounding percentage.  They also struggle to get to the line.  14th in the Big 10 in free throw attempts per game.  They do lead the league in TO % with 14 % of their possessions ending in a turnover.  They are one of the most efficient scoring teams in the Big 10, averaging 1.16 Points per possession.

 

The defensive side is where they struggle.  They don't let the other team crash the boards very well.  They don't put teams on the free throw line.  Teams do shoot 41 % from 3 against them, and Illinois is 9-14 from 3 with just under 2 minutes to go.  They are also one of the worst teams allowing a point per possession. 

 

Comparing Nebraska and Michigan (rankings in Big 10)

Offense              FG%       3PT%         FT%  OFFREB%  AST%  PossPer Game  Points per Poss   FTA/g           TO%         eFG%       PPG

Nebraska          .423 (14)  .323 (13)  .714 (7)   .377 (4)    .459 (14)   70.5 (7)             1.01 (12)         19.69 (11)     .192 (10)     .471 (13)  71.4 (13)

Michigan           .470 (6)    .371 (5)    .786 (1)   .291 (14)   .544 (10)  64.2 (14)           1.16 (2)           16.06 (14)      .143 (1)      .554 (3)   74.7 (9)

 

Defense

Nebraska         .430 (12)   .374 (13)   .662 (2)   .342 (14)   .495 (8)   70.8 (8)             0.99 (11)         18.13 (9)       .207 (2)      .494 (12)   70.3 (12)

Michigan          .452 (14)   .414 (14)   .658 (1)   .295 (5)     .449 (4)   63.9 (1)             1.00 (12)         14.44 (3)       .198 (5)      .514 (14)   63.9 (2)

hhcmatt

hhcmatt

Posted
Posted

I find it helps to think of all of Michigan's front court players as good shooting Walt Pitchford when trying to wrap my mind around how a team is so good at shooting while being so good at getting killed in the paint.

jason2486

jason2486

Posted
Posted

Big opportunity Saturday!  It's obviously not must-win, but like Coach Miles talks about playing with a lead, a win to try and separate ourselves and Michigan State from the rest of the pack a little bit would be huge, especially with Purdue losing tonight!

kldm64

kldm64

Posted
Posted
10 hours ago, jason2486 said:

Big opportunity Saturday!  It's obviously not must-win, but like Coach Miles talks about playing with a lead, a win to try and separate ourselves and Michigan State from the rest of the pack a little bit would be huge, especially with Purdue losing tonight!

 

Might disagree a little bit that it's not a "must win".  I just base that on the stretch we have coming up where we play @Northwestern, Purdue, Michigan State, @Iowa, & Wisconsin.  It's possible we could go 0-5 during that stretch so when you get games that are more winnable than others like Michigan, you have to capitalize on those. 

 

It we can win our next 3 games @Michigan, Ohio State, and @Rutgers, that would put us at 6-1 before we head into that tough stretch.  So that is why I think Michigan as well as Ohio State and Rutgers are "must win" games.

hhcmatt

hhcmatt

Posted
Posted

Miles Presser

 

Coach talked about starting Jordy alongside Jacobson a couple of times during the presser.  It's pretty tempting because of the height that Michigan throws at you plus they don't necessarily put you into a lot of foul trouble. Moe Wagner and DJ Wilson have 71 combined FT attempts....Tai Webster has 101.

 

On the other hand, what happens when both your starting center rack up 2 fouls in the first half?  Seems like you need one of those guys on the court because otherwise you risk having Wilson or Mark Donnol! tear you a new one on both ends.

 

I think Jack looked good alright on Sunday but he wasn't exactly closing out on 3pt shooters....though at least he was in position which is why he played in the 2nd half. At the end of the day, I think it's Roby who starts this one though we're going to see a lot of mixing and matching.

HB

HB

Posted
Posted
4 hours ago, kldm64 said:

 

Might disagree a little bit that it's not a "must win".  I just base that on the stretch we have coming up where we play @Northwestern, Purdue, Michigan State, @Iowa, & Wisconsin.  It's possible we could go 0-5 during that stretch so when you get games that are more winnable than others like Michigan, you have to capitalize on those. 

 

It we can win our next 3 games @Michigan, Ohio State, and @Rutgers, that would put us at 6-1 before we head into that tough stretch.  So that is why I think Michigan as well as Ohio State and Rutgers are "must win" games.

 

I really hope Ohio State can beat MSU at home tomorrow.  don't want to play them when they're still on the donut at 0-5.  

jason2486

jason2486

Posted
Posted (edited)
3 hours ago, AuroranHusker said:

 

Can't tell if this is a diss or a compliment. He said something similar during our first year in the Big Ten. It was something along the lines of not knowing much about our guys from the recruiting trail. At that time, it was definitely not a compliment. We have plenty of top 150 guys, so I'm not sure why he would choose those words with our current roster.

Edited by jason2486

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