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Pregame Discussion: Nebraska (9-7) vs. Michigan (11-5) - 1/14/17


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Two wins separate us from Michigan, and with the 4th overall SOS compared to their 127th overall SOS (201 non-con), this game may be closer than some think.

 

2017 Schedule help.gif

Game Plan | Opponent Tracker

Date Rk Opponent Result     Location Record Conf  
Fri Nov 11 31 337 Howard W, 76-58 65   Home 1-0    
Sun Nov 13 31 160 IUPUI W, 77-65 67   Home 2-0    
Thu Nov 17 36 38 Marquette W, 79-61 73   Neutral 3-0   a.gif
Fri Nov 18 26 26 SMU W, 76-54 58   Neutral 4-0   a.gif
Wed Nov 23 15 33 South Carolina L, 61-46 62   Away 4-1   a.gif
Sat Nov 26 26 233 Mount St. Mary's W, 64-47 59   Home 5-1    
Wed Nov 30 25 42 Virginia Tech L, 73-70 64   Home 5-2   b.gif
Sat Dec 3 26 293 Kennesaw St. W, 82-55 60   Home 6-2    
Tue Dec 6 27 80 Texas W, 53-50 61   Home 7-2    
Sat Dec 10 27 13 UCLA L, 102-84 64   Away 7-3   a.gif
Tue Dec 13 32 321 Central Arkansas W, 97-53 68   Home 8-3    
Sat Dec 17 31 315 Maryland Eastern Shore W, 98-49 67   Home 9-3    
Thu Dec 22 27 144 Furman W, 68-62 60   Home 10-3    
Sun Jan 1 31 78 Iowa L, 86-83 71 OT Away 10-4 0-1 a.gif
Wed Jan 4 33 85 Penn St. W, 72-69 65   Home 11-4 1-1  
Sat Jan 7 31 54 Maryland L, 77-70 62   Home 11-5 1-2 b.gif
Wed Jan 11   72 Illinois L, 66-65 59 49% Away   × a.gif

 

 

Depth chart over the past 5 games

PG SG SF PF C
10 Derrick Walton
6-1  190  Sr
77%
 
12 Muhammad-Ali Abdur-Rahkman
6-4  190  Jr
57%
 
21 Zak Irvin
6-6  215  Sr
55%
 
5 DJ Wilson
6-10  240  So
58%
 
13 Moritz Wagner
6-11  240  So
61%
 
3 Xavier Simpson
6-0  180  Fr
23%
 
21 Zak Irvin
6-6  215  Sr
34%
 
22 Duncan Robinson
6-8  215  Jr
39%
 
34 Mark Donnal
6-9  240  Sr
23%
 
5 DJ Wilson
6-10  240  So
27%
 
   
10 Derrick Walton
6-1  190  Sr
6%
 
   
22 Duncan Robinson
6-8  215  Jr
16%
 
34 Mark Donnal
6-9  240  Sr
7%
 
               
15 Jon Teske
7-0  245  Fr
5%
 

Most frequent lineups over the past 5 games help.gif

  PG SG SF PF C Pct
1
10 Derrick Walton
6-1  190  Sr
12 Muhammad-Ali Abdur-Rahkman
6-4  190  Jr
21 Zak Irvin
6-6  215  Sr
5 DJ Wilson
6-10  240  So
13 Moritz Wagner
6-11  240  So
26.2
 
2
10 Derrick Walton
6-1  190  Sr
21 Zak Irvin
6-6  215  Sr
22 Duncan Robinson
6-8  215  Jr
5 DJ Wilson
6-10  240  So
13 Moritz Wagner
6-11  240  So
20.6
 
3
10 Derrick Walton
6-1  190  Sr
12 Muhammad-Ali Abdur-Rahkman
6-4  190  Jr
21 Zak Irvin
6-6  215  Sr
34 Mark Donnal
6-9  240  Sr
5 DJ Wilson
6-10  240  So
8.5
 
4
10 Derrick Walton
6-1  190  Sr
21 Zak Irvin
6-6  215  Sr
22 Duncan Robinson
6-8  215  Jr
34 Mark Donnal
6-9  240  Sr
5 DJ Wilson
6-10  240  So
6.5
 
5
3 Xavier Simpson
6-0  180  Fr
21 Zak Irvin
6-6  215  Sr
22 Duncan Robinson
6-8  215  Jr
5 DJ Wilson
6-10  240  So
13 Moritz Wagner
6-11  240  So
4.2
 
6
10 Derrick Walton
6-1  190  Sr
12 Muhammad-Ali Abdur-Rahkman
6-4  190  Jr
21 Zak Irvin
6-6  215  Sr
22 Duncan Robinson
6-8  215  Jr
5 DJ Wilson
6-10  240  So
3.9
 
7
10 Derrick Walton
6-1  190  Sr
12 Muhammad-Ali Abdur-Rahkman
6-4  190  Jr
21 Zak Irvin
6-6  215  Sr
22 Duncan Robinson
6-8  215  Jr
34 Mark Donnal
6-9  240  Sr
3.4
 
8
10 Derrick Walton
6-1  190  Sr
12 Muhammad-Ali Abdur-Rahkman
6-4  190  Jr
21 Zak Irvin
6-6  215  Sr
22 Duncan Robinson
6-8  215  Jr
13 Moritz Wagner
6-11  240  So
2.7
 
9
3 Xavier Simpson
6-0  180  Fr
10 Derrick Walton
6-1  190  Sr
21 Zak Irvin
6-6  215  Sr
34 Mark Donnal
6-9  240  Sr
5 DJ Wilson
6-10  240  So
2.4
 
10
10 Derrick Walton
6-1  190  Sr
12 Muhammad-Ali Abdur-Rahkman
6-4  190  Jr
22 Duncan Robinson
6-8  215  Jr
5 DJ Wilson
6-10  240  So
13 Moritz Wagner
6-11  240  So
2.4
 
  UNKNOWN 3.9
Border thickness proportional to player %Poss, green shading proportional to 3PA/(.475*FTA+FGA)
Position designation is estimated by an algorithm and may not reflect reality.
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Michigan is yet other slow team that doesn't turn the ball over and makes 3s. Our defense will have its hands full.

We'll see what they do against Illinois but on defense Michigan has been torched this year, especially from the 3 and has been hemorrhaging offensive rebounds in conference.

 

 

UMhoops always has great coverage

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Oh boy

 

My hunch is that we throw McVeigh in for the starting lineup.

I could see Roby as well.

 

Michigan doesn't foul a ton so you can really think about playing Jake/Jordy and holding your breath. Can Jordy guard mobile bigs?

Horne of the bench makes more sense in this one. Could see him starting in any of the next 3 games though.

Is Fuller ready to play?

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Yeah, I would bet on McVeigh starting too, especially going on the road. Would be nice to have someone who has some starting experience in the lineup, rather than throwing a freshman out there for his first start.

 

NU was going to have to really watch matchups in this game against Wagner anyway - now that becomes even tougher. Don't see any way Jordy can guard Wagner successfully for an extended period, so Jordy's minutes will have to be limited, even without Morrow available. Wagner is averaging 29 minutes in league games.

 

Need McVeigh & Roby to really rebound. I do like Roby's chances of guarding Wilson, so he may see extended minutes. 

 

I wonder how much 1-3-1 we'll see from NU - it's going to be tempting I'm sure without Morrow to try steal some possessions with a change-up zone, especially if Wagner is killing us - but Beilein knows that defense pretty well, so I wouldn't expect UM to have many problems against it. Ultimately, I don't think Miles tries it much, if at all, which really puts the pressure on our 4s and 5s to guard well without fouling.

 

NU has had no success against UM/Beilein - 0-6 with 5 double-digit losses since joining the B1G - going to be that much tougher without Morrow.

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On Tuesday, January 10, 2017 at 2:57 PM, big red22 said:

The tall lenky white guy seems to always be our Achilles Heel.  And we wonder why we have fits with Creighton... The tall lenky white guy is 50% of their team :P

Not anymore. Their starting 5 is Big East official, only thing holding them back is the MVC leftovers coming off the bench.

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Michigan is the slowest paced team in the Big 10.  They average 64.2 possessions per game.  By comparison, with 5 extra seconds, Doc's teams averaged 64.5 possessions in his 6 years in Lincoln.  They love the 3.  Hate the rim.  They attempt 45 % of their shots from 3.  They do not crash the offensive glass.  14th in the Big 10 in offensive rebounding percentage.  They also struggle to get to the line.  14th in the Big 10 in free throw attempts per game.  They do lead the league in TO % with 14 % of their possessions ending in a turnover.  They are one of the most efficient scoring teams in the Big 10, averaging 1.16 Points per possession.

 

The defensive side is where they struggle.  They don't let the other team crash the boards very well.  They don't put teams on the free throw line.  Teams do shoot 41 % from 3 against them, and Illinois is 9-14 from 3 with just under 2 minutes to go.  They are also one of the worst teams allowing a point per possession. 

 

Comparing Nebraska and Michigan (rankings in Big 10)

Offense              FG%       3PT%         FT%  OFFREB%  AST%  PossPer Game  Points per Poss   FTA/g           TO%         eFG%       PPG

Nebraska          .423 (14)  .323 (13)  .714 (7)   .377 (4)    .459 (14)   70.5 (7)             1.01 (12)         19.69 (11)     .192 (10)     .471 (13)  71.4 (13)

Michigan           .470 (6)    .371 (5)    .786 (1)   .291 (14)   .544 (10)  64.2 (14)           1.16 (2)           16.06 (14)      .143 (1)      .554 (3)   74.7 (9)

 

Defense

Nebraska         .430 (12)   .374 (13)   .662 (2)   .342 (14)   .495 (8)   70.8 (8)             0.99 (11)         18.13 (9)       .207 (2)      .494 (12)   70.3 (12)

Michigan          .452 (14)   .414 (14)   .658 (1)   .295 (5)     .449 (4)   63.9 (1)             1.00 (12)         14.44 (3)       .198 (5)      .514 (14)   63.9 (2)

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10 hours ago, jason2486 said:

Big opportunity Saturday!  It's obviously not must-win, but like Coach Miles talks about playing with a lead, a win to try and separate ourselves and Michigan State from the rest of the pack a little bit would be huge, especially with Purdue losing tonight!

 

Might disagree a little bit that it's not a "must win".  I just base that on the stretch we have coming up where we play @Northwestern, Purdue, Michigan State, @Iowa, & Wisconsin.  It's possible we could go 0-5 during that stretch so when you get games that are more winnable than others like Michigan, you have to capitalize on those. 

 

It we can win our next 3 games @Michigan, Ohio State, and @Rutgers, that would put us at 6-1 before we head into that tough stretch.  So that is why I think Michigan as well as Ohio State and Rutgers are "must win" games.

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Miles Presser

 

Coach talked about starting Jordy alongside Jacobson a couple of times during the presser.  It's pretty tempting because of the height that Michigan throws at you plus they don't necessarily put you into a lot of foul trouble. Moe Wagner and DJ Wilson have 71 combined FT attempts....Tai Webster has 101.

 

On the other hand, what happens when both your starting center rack up 2 fouls in the first half?  Seems like you need one of those guys on the court because otherwise you risk having Wilson or Mark Donnol! tear you a new one on both ends.

 

I think Jack looked good alright on Sunday but he wasn't exactly closing out on 3pt shooters....though at least he was in position which is why he played in the 2nd half. At the end of the day, I think it's Roby who starts this one though we're going to see a lot of mixing and matching.

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4 hours ago, kldm64 said:

 

Might disagree a little bit that it's not a "must win".  I just base that on the stretch we have coming up where we play @Northwestern, Purdue, Michigan State, @Iowa, & Wisconsin.  It's possible we could go 0-5 during that stretch so when you get games that are more winnable than others like Michigan, you have to capitalize on those. 

 

It we can win our next 3 games @Michigan, Ohio State, and @Rutgers, that would put us at 6-1 before we head into that tough stretch.  So that is why I think Michigan as well as Ohio State and Rutgers are "must win" games.

 

I really hope Ohio State can beat MSU at home tomorrow.  don't want to play them when they're still on the donut at 0-5.  

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3 hours ago, AuroranHusker said:

 

Can't tell if this is a diss or a compliment. He said something similar during our first year in the Big Ten. It was something along the lines of not knowing much about our guys from the recruiting trail. At that time, it was definitely not a compliment. We have plenty of top 150 guys, so I'm not sure why he would choose those words with our current roster.

Edited by jason2486
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      2017 Schedule 
      Game Plan | Opponent Tracker
      Date Rk Opponent Result     Location Record Conf   Fri Nov 11 55 309 Kennesaw St. W, 91-74 82   Home 1-0     Sun Nov 13 55 336 Savannah St. W, 116-84 90   Home 2-0     Thu Nov 17 54 53 Seton Hall L, 91-83 82   Home 2-1   Sun Nov 20 58 306 UT Rio Grande Valley W, 95-67 84   Home 3-1     Fri Nov 25 59 3 Virginia L, 74-41 59   Neutral 3-2   Sat Nov 26 68 79 Memphis L, 100-92 76   Neutral 3-3   Tue Nov 29 72 27 Notre Dame L, 92-78 73   Away 3-4   Sat Dec 3 74 188 Nebraska Omaha L, 98-89 77   Home 3-5     Mon Dec 5 92 305 Stetson W, 95-68 76   Home 4-5     Thu Dec 8 86 28 Iowa St. W, 78-64 72   Home 5-5   Sat Dec 17 78 130 Northern Iowa W, 69-46 65   Neutral 6-5     Tue Dec 20 68 195 North Dakota W, 84-73 75   Home 7-5     Thu Dec 22 69 338 Delaware St. W, 89-57 79   Home 8-5     Wed Dec 28 67 14 Purdue L, 89-67 78   Away 8-6 0-1 Sun Jan 1 76 32 Michigan W, 86-83 71 OT Home 9-6 1-1  
      I think it's pretty safe to say that Jok is the straw that stirs the drink here, check out the 92% on FT:
       
        Ht Wt Yr G %Min ORtg %Poss %Shots eFG% TS% OR% DR% ARate TORate Blk% Stl% FC/40 FD/40 FTRate FTM-FTA Pct 2PM-2PA Pct 3PM-3PA Pct   Go-to guys (>28% of possessions used) 14 Peter Jok
      National Rank 6-6 205 Sr 15 71.4 117.2
      302 30.2
      54 36.0
      10 54.1
      414 59.6
      261 3.2 17.5
      456 16.7 11.8
      214 0.0 2.1 2.7 5.6
      233 30.9 69-75 .920
      22 61-129 .473 47-114 .412
      318  
      KenPom's got this as the 4th highest rated game of the day:
       
      Rk Game Prediction Time (ET) Location Thrill
      Score 1 14 Purdue at 44 Ohio St. Purdue 73-70 (58%) 7:00 pm 
         Columbus, OH
      Value City Arena 73.4 2 40 Minnesota at 43 Northwestern Northwestern 70-67 (61%) 9:00 pm 
       ESPNU  Evanston, IL
      Welsh-Ryan Arena 63.2 3 61 Colorado at 100 Arizona St. Colorado 77-76 (52%) 9:00 pm 
       Pac-12 Networks  Tempe, AZ
      Wells-Fargo Arena 56.2 4 75 Iowa at 81 Nebraska Nebraska 77-74 (60%) 9:00 pm 
       Big Ten Network  Lincoln, NE
      Pinnacle Bank Arena 53.3  
       
      We're gonna need a BIG and LOUD crowd!  Did I mention I was pumped for this one?  GO BIG RED!
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