KenPom 2023-2024 KenPom Rankings Thread

[SkersHoops]

Looks like we dropped to 57 in the NET.  We still control our own destiny, in terms of B1G seeding and the tournament.  We need MSU to stay in top 25 (don't get how they are), Ohio St. to stay in top 75, and for KSU to make the jump back (76th currently).  

 

[SkersHoops]

We can still finish with 5 Q1s, not counting the B1G tournament.  

[HuskerActuary]

36 minutes ago, SkersHoops said:

We need MSU to stay in top 25

Top 30, isn't it?

[AuroranHusker]

7 minutes ago, HuskerActuary said:

Top 30, isn't it?

 

 

Yes

[49r]

Not a lot to say this morning.  We know what needs to be done.  All of our remaining games are against the bottom 6 in the conference.  Probably need to win 4.

 

Ken's prediction stays at 21-10 (11-9).  Torvik also, 21-10 (11-9).

 

San José State, now on a 7 game losing streak and losses in 10 out of the last 11, are down to #226. 

 

Here we go.

 

---

 

 

KenPom rankings as of 2-11-24

=======================

 

B1G (7-7):
2. Purdue - W
11. Illinois - L
16. Michigan State - W
18. Wisconsin - L, W
49. Northwestern - W, L
51. Nebraska

56. Iowa - L
57. Maryland - L
65. Ohio State - W
75. Minnesota - L

89. Penn State

82. Rutgers - L

96. Indiana - W

103. Michigan - W

 

Non-Conference (10-1):
356. Lindenwood - W

343. Florida A&M - W

---Cornhusker Classic---
279. Rider - W
207. Stony Brook - W

---Sanford Pentagon---
161. Oregon State - W

 

---Cornhusker Classic---

108. Duquesne - W

 

229. Cal State Fullerton - W

17. Creighton - L
69. @Kansas State - W
261. North Dakota - W

311. South Carolina State - W

[kldm64]

If they could have just gotten that win at Illinois, our resume would be very solid with 4 wins against teams in the top 20 (and one of them being a road win). 

[Chuck Taylor]

Down to an 11 seed in Bracketville, got passed by several teams that logged big wins. Seems like for the rest of the way, it might be more a matter of what other teams are doing, rather than what we do, since we don't have any top teams left on the schedule. 

For now, root against:

Wash State, Nevada, Ole Miss, Utah, Wake Forest, Cincinnati, Gonzaga, Providence

[nustudent]

5 minutes ago, Chuck Taylor said:

Down to an 11 seed in Bracketville, got passed by several teams that logged big wins. Seems like for the rest of the way, it might be more a matter of what other teams are doing, rather than what we do, since we don't have any top teams left on the schedule. 

For now, root against:

Wash State, Nevada, Ole Miss, Utah, Wake Forest, Cincinnati, Gonzaga, Providence

While other teams can log some big wins as opposed to us...the odds that we finish as strong or stronger is in our favor too.   

 

Our schedule is pretty favorable.   We really should expect to go 4-2 at worst, especially if we are truly an NCAA team.

 

Take Wake Forest for an example....they play Duke twice, Clemson, @Virginia, @Va Tech on top of some other easier games.  They can take a big jump if they win some of those, but they could very easily go 1-4 in those 5 games and 4-4 down the stretch too.

 

Providence is another.   St. Johns, @ Xavier, @ Marquette, Nova, UCONN.  Those are 5 tough games.  If they win 3 of those on top of beating Depaul and @ Georgetown, they will be sitting good.  No shame in losing to Marquette or UCONN, but more than 1, maybe 2 losses to the other 3 and they'll be hurting.

 

Ole Miss as well.   @Kentucky, @Miss St, South Carolina, Bama, @Georgia, A&M.  They get Missouri twice.  But they probably need to win 3 of those 6 games.  That won't be easy for them.

 

Kansas St can do us a huge solid too in a few weeks by winning at Cincinnati.  Hurts the Bearcats and possibly gets KSU back into Quad 1 range for us.

[hhcmatt]

2 hours ago, Chuck Taylor said:

Down to an 11 seed in Bracketville, got passed by several teams that logged big wins. Seems like for the rest of the way, it might be more a matter of what other teams are doing, rather than what we do, since we don't have any top teams left on the schedule. 

For now, root against:

Wash State, Nevada, Ole Miss, Utah, Wake Forest, Cincinnati, Gonzaga, Providence

 

Winning at home doesn't move the needle for us because it's assumed we will win out there.

[HuskerFever]

Right. All heuristics and oversimplifying. But one way to think about it:

 

With a softer schedule to close out the season, sure, that means we have a better path than other bubble teams to get those wins.

 

But bubble teams winning some big matchups gives them a 2x boost to their win. In the same vein, any loss we have that we were expected to win will hurt us 2x more.

 

The key: we absolutely need to win those games we're expected to win. Otherwise, we need to offset that with more road wins and/or some Big Ten tournament wins.

[OurDecay]

I actually think we are safely a tourney team in the committee’s eyes at this point.  We are good, we have great story lines, and we’ve beaten two top-6 teams.  Basically we just can’t collapse.  They aren’t looking for reasons to knock us out, they are looking for reasons to not even have us in the bubble discussion.  We get to 20 wins and we are safely in IMO.

Edited February 12 by OurDecay

[HuskerActuary]

6 minutes ago, OurDecay said:

I actually think we are safely a tourney team in the committee’s eyes at this point.

As we sit right now, at 17-8, I think this is true.

 

6 minutes ago, OurDecay said:

We get to 20 wins and we are safely in IMO.

This is where I disagree. Twenty wins means we finish the regular season 3-3, with a couple of losses that tournament teams should normally win (plus beating the three must-wins - all three remaining home games). That would drop us from where the committee would have us right now.

[millerhusker]

1 hour ago, hhcmatt said:

 

Winning at home doesn't move the needle for us because it's assumed we will win out there.

So much pressure on the last three homes games. Win all three and it really does nothing for your resume. Lose any one of the three and you're toast. Let's just go 6-0 and leave no doubt. 

[unl]

6 minutes ago, millerhusker said:

So much pressure on the last three homes games. Win all three and it really does nothing for your resume. Lose any one of the three and you're toast. Let's just go 6-0 and leave no doubt. 

This is where HHC is looking at the same thing two different ways. 
 

The home games are needed not go “get in” or avoid “getting bumped” from the tourney. They are simply needed because 3-3 is the minimum to get in the field of 68.

 

Everyone is saying we need 3-5 wins. Some of this is human. So if you’re a gambler, you might be ok with 3-3 and hopefully a good win in the conference tournament. But if you want to be safe, better get 4 or 5. 
 

These home games are as important as anything. Get the three and you at least have a chance. Drop one and the panic button is alarmed. 

[OmahaHusker]

32 minutes ago, OurDecay said:

I actually think we are safely a tourney team in the committee’s eyes at this point.  We are good, we have great story lines, and we’ve beaten two top-6 teams.  Basically we just can’t collapse.  They aren’t looking for reasons to knock us out, they are looking for reasons to not even have us in the bubble discussion.  We get to 20 wins and we are safely in IMO.

 

Only 20 wins going into Selection Sunday we'd be discussing who we're getting to come to PBA in the NIT. 

 

I think 21 is 50/50 depending on who we beat. Think there's also a very good chance we'd be sent to Dayton with 21. 

 

22 is in but could still get sent to Dayton. Not as likely though. Pry a low 10, high 11 seed. 

[HuskerFever]

One thing people aren't considering right now is also our conference standing. No, not for selection purposes.

 

Depending on where we finish in the regular season, it's possible we'd play one of the bottom four teams in the conference. Yet again, not another resume builder.

 

So it puts more pressure on us to close out the regular season without having to rely on a Big Ten tournament run. We'd likely need a quarterfinal win to really solidify ourselves if we're on the bubble at that point.

[hskr4life]

I think committee will look at metrics more than a specific number of wins.  But one affects the other, so…

 

Result based metrics have fallen into the mid to upper 30’s in the past few weeks. We were as high as a Top 25 KPI and Top 30 SOR, but not so much now.

 

Predictive metrics on the other hand have kept increasing, thankfully. We were in the upper 50’s Pom wise (can’t remember if we dropped into the 60’s at one point) and BPI was definitely in the 60’s.  Now we’re nearing jumping into the Top 50 in both metrics and BPI has passed Ken Pom for the first time that I remember this year.

 

Our SOS is nearing a jump into the Top 50 (though with our remaining schedule, it may fall a bit.  Our Non-Con SOS is still disgusting and will be used against us if we’re anywhere near the bubble.

[nustudent]

I don't think we need to get to 21 to get in because we'll need the win.  I think we need to get to 21, because it's avoiding a bad loss.

All home games are Quad 3 at this point.  And it's very possible Michigan (and a slight chance at Indiana) end up as a Quad 3 road game as well.  One of our stronger selling points is that we are undefeated against Quad 3 and Quad 4 teams.   That's a bigger feather in our cap than some people think/realize.

 

Going 4-2 down the stretch does several things for us.  Some officially count as metrics, some are more optics (like finishing strong)....but in no order...

 

-You go above 20 wins and are 10+ games over .500 at 21-10

-You finish +.500 in conference play at 11-9

-You seemingly avoid any bad (Quad 3/Quad 4) losses.

-You add another road win to the mix.

-You finish the regular season above .500 in your last 10

-A NET rating likely in the 40s and certainly no lower than where we are now (53rd).

-Likely Improvements in other ratings, some of which we are already sitting well in (KPI, KenPom, SOR, etc)

 

It's possible we can still miss the dance at 21-10 in the scenario.   But it would take some pretty remarkable (and probably unrealistic) events down the stretch from other bubble teams or some massive upsets in the conference tournaments from what would otherwise be one-bid leagues to force us out.

 

At 20-11, a lot of those things above don't apply.  

 

Edited February 12 by nustudent

[OmahaHusker]

3 minutes ago, nustudent said:

I don't think we need to get to 21 to get in because we'll need the win.  I think we need to get to 21, because it's avoiding a bad loss.

All home games are Quad 3 at this point.  And it's very possible Michigan (and a slight chance at Indiana) end up as a Quad 3 road game as well.  One of our stronger selling points is that we are undefeated against Quad 3 and Quad 4 teams.   That's a bigger feather in our cap than some people think/realize.

 

Going 4-2 down the stretch does several things for us.  Some officially count as metrics, some are more optics (like finishing strong)....but in no order...

 

-You go above 20 wins and are 10+ games over .500 at 21-10

-You finish +.500 in conference play at 11-9

-You seemingly avoid any bad (Quad 3/Quad 4) losses.

-You add another road win to the mix.

-You finish the regular season above .500 in your last 10

-A NET rating likely in the 40s and certainly no lower than where we are now (53rd).

-Likely Improvements in other ratings, some of which we are already sitting well in (KPI, KenPom, SOR, etc)

 

It's possible we can still miss the dance at 21-10 in the scenario.   But it would take some pretty remarkable (and probably unrealistic) events down the stretch from other bubble teams or some massive upsets in the conference tournaments from what would otherwise be one-bid leagues to force us out.

 

At 20-11, a lot of those things above don't apply.  

 

 

If Gonzaga wins at San Fran and/or at St. Mary's to end their regular season, the committee will put them in over basically every bubble team without even thinking twice about it. Which is crazy, but it'll happen. That's also the kind of stuff we'd be up against. 

[hskr4life]

Here’s a peek at our team sheet as it stands today.

[nustudent]

3 minutes ago, OmahaHusker said:

 

If Gonzaga wins at San Fran and/or at St. Mary's to end their regular season, the committee will put them in over basically every bubble team without even thinking twice about it. Which is crazy, but it'll happen. That's also the kind of stuff we'd be up against. 

I'm not too worried about it.  I've always expected them to be in.

 

On average, we're about 7th or 8th in across all the brackets.  I think several others near and behind us will play themselves out.  

Edited February 12 by nustudent

[millerhusker]

47 minutes ago, unl said:

The home games are needed not go “get in” or avoid “getting bumped” from the tourney. They are simply needed because 3-3 is the minimum to get in the field of 68.

 

A big thing we have going for our resume that many other bubble teams don't have is we do not have any "bad" (quad 3/4) losses. That is significant in the eyes of the committee. Right now a home loss to Rutgers, Minnesota or Penn State would be a quad 3 loss and I don't see any of them being in the top 75 at the end of the year. I think losing one of those games would be crushing and none of our remaining away games would be resume builders to the point of outweighing a bad loss. 

[cornfed24-7]

2 hours ago, OurDecay said:

I actually think we are safely a tourney team in the committee’s eyes at this point.  We are good, we have great story lines, and we’ve beaten two top-6 teams.  Basically we just can’t collapse.  They aren’t looking for reasons to knock us out, they are looking for reasons to not even have us in the bubble discussion.  We get to 20 wins and we are safely in IMO.

Change that to 21 and I agree. 20 and we're sweating on selection Sunday. 

[tcp]

as a means of comparison, i'm curious to see what the collective home/road splits of the P5/6 are. even our bottom-ish teams are pretty tough at home. wondr if it's the same in the other power conferences, too. 

 

 

[huskerkid21]

If anybody feels like getting upset for no reason heres how our resume stacks up against AP top 25 Oklahoma....... seems pretty close to me. Oklahoma a 6 seed and we will be in the NIT (just kidding) (kind of)