Either we're good enough or we're not, the reprise

[Norm Peterson]

Been thinking about this.

 

Five seasons ago, when we last made a run to the NCAA tourney, people kept posting graphics from realtimerpi, etc., projected our odds of winning x, y, and z number of games to finish the season.  I completely disregarded those charts with projections of our percentage chances of winning various games.  Instead, I said we're either good enough (to make the dance) or we're not.  If we're good enough, we're going to win the games we need to in order to get in, and, at the time, I thought we were good enough.

 

So, the needle moved from, like, 0.2% chance of getting to 19 wins to 100% chance of getting to 19 wins.

 

Because we were good enough that year to do it.

 

I look at this team this year and it's a slightly different feeling.  Again, I don't care about computers projecting odds of us reaching a certain win total.  I see a team that is not simply good enough to make the dance; I see a team that is good enough to make some noise in the dance.

 

Now, crap can happen.  Lose a game we shouldn't, and next thing you know, we're playing catch-up. Nothing is a foregone conclusion here.

 

But we are most certainly good enough this year.  We're a better team than we were in 2013.  We're more balanced; we have more guys who can score; dare I say that we play better defense? You can't just shut down one of our guys and beat us.

 

This team can go into Maryland and win.  This team could win at Iowa.

 

And here's the thing:  It won't take luck.  That's right.  IT WON'T TAKE LUCK.

 

Years past, you'd say "if we bring our 'A' game" or "If we get some lucky bounces, who knows?"

 

This year?  We're a dangerous team.  We won't necessarily win every game left on our schedule, but you know what?

 

Every team left on our schedule is going to need to bring THEIR "A" game to beat us.

 

This is the year, guys.  That monkey is preparing his dismount.

[Huskerpapa]

7 minutes ago, Norm Peterson said:

I don't care about computers projecting odds of us reaching a certain win total.  I see a team that is not simply good enough to make the dance; I see a team that is good enough to make some noise in the dance.

I couldn't agree more with this thought.  We pass the eye test, without question!

[Norm Peterson]

 

Check out them apples.

[HuskerFever]

12 minutes ago, Norm Peterson said:

 

Check out them apples.

 

For every 1 apple I put down on Nebraska, I only get 6? They must be very good apples.

[Timforthewin]

I know this has been brought up before and I don't want to make another thread, but since you brought up that 2014 team Norm I wanted to revisit this thought now that we're about halfway through this season.

 

2018 Glynn > 2014 Tai

2018 TA < 2014 Petteway

2018 Palmer > 2014 Shields

2018 Copeland > 2014 David Rivers

2018 Roby > 2014 Walt P

 

If these two rosters faced each other it would be interesting to say the least, I'm guessing Glynn would man up on Terran and TA would get the match up on a young Tai. But point being is I'm confident that this 2018 team would win handily ~ 10-15 points. Needless to say, getting 'lucky' at the end of the year won't be needed this time around. I think we're feeling safe enough to comfortably talk about seeding after that Minnesota game on Feb. 13th 

[Norm Peterson]

23 minutes ago, Timforthewin said:

I know this has been brought up before and I don't want to make another thread, but since you brought up that 2014 team Norm I wanted to revisit this thought now that we're about halfway through this season.

 

2018 Glynn > 2014 Tai

2018 TA < 2014 Petteway

2018 Palmer > 2014 Shields

2018 Copeland > 2014 David Rivers

2018 Roby > 2014 Walt P

 

If these two rosters faced each other it would be interesting to say the least, I'm guessing Glynn would man up on Terran and TA would get the match up on a young Tai. But point being is I'm confident that this 2018 team would win handily ~ 10-15 points. Needless to say, getting 'lucky' at the end of the year won't be needed this time around. I think we're feeling safe enough to comfortably talk about seeding after that Minnesota game on Feb. 13th 

 

Sr. Watson >>> Fr. Webster or So Parker

Sr. Palmer > So. Petteway

Jr. Roby >>>>>  Jr. Rivers

Sr. Copeland >>> So Pitchford

So. Allen = So. Shields

 

This team is better than that team was.

 

 

[Timforthewin]

2 minutes ago, Norm Peterson said:

 

Sr. Watson >>> Fr. Webster or So Parker

Sr. Palmer > So. Petteway

Jr. Roby >>>>>  Jr. Rivers

Sr. Copeland >>> So Pitchford

So. Allen = So. Shields

 

This team is better than that team was.

 

 

I agree with your logic, but are you saying you think TA draws the matchup on Shields? Seems like the only logical mismatch that the 2014 team could exploit. Interesting hypothetical to say the least and fun to put the coach's hat on

[Norm Peterson]

22 minutes ago, Timforthewin said:

I agree with your logic, but are you saying you think TA draws the matchup on Shields? Seems like the only logical mismatch that the 2014 team could exploit. Interesting hypothetical to say the least and fun to put the coach's hat on

 

No, but I don't think TA draws Petteway as his defensive assignment, either.

 

Neither team had a true post.  Copeland most logically lines up with Pitchford and Roby most logically lines up with Rivers.  Watson and Webster are obvious as both are point guards.  But it seems to me that Palmer and Petteway have the next most in common.  This team has an extra guard; that team had an extra wing.  There's an odd man comparison either way.  I just thought Petteway and Palmer were the most logical comparison.

[The Polish Rifle]

48 minutes ago, Norm Peterson said:

 

Sr. Watson >>> Fr. Webster or So Parker

Sr. Palmer > So. Petteway

Jr. Roby >>>>>  Jr. Rivers

Sr. Copeland >>> So Pitchford

So. Allen = So. Shields

 

This team is better than that team was.

 

 

At this point I might give the slight edge to So. Shavon. Shavon was a dog, and it brought a tear to my eye watching him play. That’s not to say by the end of this season I’ll agree with you. 

[jayschool]

[cornfed24-7]

1 hour ago, Timforthewin said:

Seems like the only logical mismatch that the 2014 team could exploit.

I'm not sure they would be able to exploit it.

Thought of something else. We struggled against that 2014 Baylor team. And in my clouded memory that team had length like we do.

Edited December 19, 2018 by cornfed24-7
Thought of more stuff

[TourneyBound]

We will know just how good we are after our January schedule...  gonna be a tough stretch especially in the first half!!

[HuskerFever]

7 hours ago, ConkintheCorner said:

We will know just how good we are after our January schedule...  gonna be a tough stretch especially in the first half!!

 

If only Roby would finally find out just how good he is...how has nobody told him yet?

[HB]

11 hours ago, HuskerFever said:

 

For every 1 apple I put down on Nebraska, I only get 6? They must be very good apples.

 

Cue "Do you like apples" scene from Good Will Hunting.

[hhcmatt]

This team is for real

[HB]

31 minutes ago, hhcmatt said:

This team is for real

 

Gonna be real interesting to see how we do on the Maryland-Iowa road swing.    2-0 and we won't be able to contain the excitement.   1-1 and hope will still be high.  0-2 and people will be saying "actually, we're not for real".   

[hhcmatt]

1 minute ago, HB said:

 

Gonna be real interesting to see how we do on the Maryland-Iowa road swing.    2-0 and we won't be able to contain the excitement.   1-1 and hope will still be high.  0-2 and people will be saying "actually, we're not for real".   

 

That's how you know this isn't a basketball school

[Huskerpapa]

The biggest difference between the 2014 team and our current team is likely on the defensive end.  This year's team is an excellent defensive team.  We have good help defense on the back end and we close out on the perimeter.  It is also starting to appear that this year's team have a few intangibles that are easier to judge after the season, then during the season.  Team chemistry, understanding and accepting roles, knowing trigger points and knowing how to win close games all will determine if we will be in the upper tier of teams at year end.

[hskr4life]

7 minutes ago, HB said:

 

Gonna be real interesting to see how we do on the Maryland-Iowa road swing.    2-0 and we won't be able to contain the excitement.   1-1 and hope will still be high.  0-2 and people will be saying "actually, we're not for real".   

 

I worry about this.  The average Joe will see 1-3 in conference and "here we go again."  This board will be overrun either by first time posters or negative Nancy's.  However, at this point we'd still be 11-4 overall with a very favorable opportunity to go 8-2 or 7-3 over the next 10 games.

[AuroranHusker]

1 hour ago, HuskerFever said:

 

If only Roby would finally find out just how good he is...how has nobody told him yet?

 

I told Isaiah how good he is.

 

(He knows.)

 

[jayschool]

9 minutes ago, Huskerpapa said:

The biggest difference between the 2014 team and our current team is likely on the defensive end.  This year's team is an excellent defensive team.  We have good help defense on the back end and we close out on the perimeter.  It is also starting to appear that this year's team have a few intangibles that are easier to judge after the season, then during the season.  Team chemistry, understanding and accepting roles, knowing trigger points and knowing how to win close games all will determine if we will be in the upper tier of teams at year end.

Another intangible — maturity. That 2014 team had Rey Gallegos and Mike Peltz as its only seniors, and neither started. The 2019 team has four seniors, three of them starting.

Copeland is 23 years old, JPJ is 22, Tanner will be 22 in a couple of weeks, and Glynn will be 22 in early March. If you've ever worked with college students, you know the difference between a 20-year old and a 22-year old. Sure, every once in a while an 18-year-old student can amaze you (Zion Williamson, anybody), but that's a bird that Nebraska's not likely to see soon or often.

 

For a program like Nebraska to compete with the blue bloods in college basketball, we need experienced AND mature players. That's what made Petteway's and Pitchford's departures so difficult after 2015. It's not that the were such great players, it's that they were good players entering their senior years. The same can be said for Andrew White's departure a few years later.

 

[49r]

In 2013, 11 games into the season, Nebraska was 8-3.  With the best wins being an 11-point win at home vs KenPom #77 Miami and an 8 point neutral court win against #78 Georgia.  Among our 3 losses was the game at Creighton (who jumped out to a 38-8 lead and was on cruise control for 30 minutes against us).

 

After fattening up on a couple of cupcakes to get to 8-3 we proceeded to lose 5 straight games, including a 31 point beat down at Ohio State and the only home loss that year against Michigan.

After the Purdue game that pushed our losing streak to 5, I posted this.  Just to try to counter the negativity on the board at the time.  It was super toxic as you could imagine.

Then a funny thing happened, as things tend to do in basketball.  We won 3 of the next 4 games starting off with avenging that 31 point beat down against Ohio State at home.  After we won the Indiana game (where Nate Hawkins lit it up from 3 point range...okay he made that ONE 3 pointer...but it was a big one), and we were standing at 11-9 I started to feel we had a legit shot at getting to above .500 to secure an NIT bid.

 

It was at that point that I started posting the RPI Forecast stuff that year:

 

 

After that, the speculation kind of took off.  Digging through that KenPom thread there was lots of fun stuff, including this gem:

 

 

But we kept winning, and we kept moving up.  Finally, on February 25th, @Norm Peterson graced us with this piece of wisdom:

 

 

---

 

At any event, that was a fun season.  But I'm going to go on record right here and now saying that this year's team is nothing like that team, and I mean that in the best possible way.

 

Still, the season is young, we've got two-thirds of our games yet to play.  Should be a fun time.  But while we are in the doldrums of the holiday season, I suggest going back through and catching up on the KenPom threads.  They're always pretty entertaining.    https://huskerhoopscentral.com/tags/KenPom/

[Norm Peterson]

22 minutes ago, Huskerpapa said:

The biggest difference between the 2014 team and our current team is likely on the defensive end.  This year's team is an excellent defensive team.  We have good help defense on the back end and we close out on the perimeter.  It is also starting to appear that this year's team have a few intangibles that are easier to judge after the season, then during the season.  Team chemistry, understanding and accepting roles, knowing trigger points and knowing how to win close games all will determine if we will be in the upper tier of teams at year end.

 

Good point about intangibles.

 

There were some chemistry issues on that 2013 team that blew up in 2014.  You could kind of see them coming if you were paying attention. 

 

For example, after our NCAA tourney loss in 2013, Walt tweeted out some comments that were decidedly passive-aggressive, "poor me" in tone. Words to the effect that we lost to Baylor because we didn't get Walt the ball enough.

 

People I knew who had met and become friends with the Petteways told me that Terran, when he was debating whether to come back or turn pro, had decided he would NOT come back if Pitchford was going to still be on the team.

 

Terran had a strong personality and I suspect was the kind of guy who didn't suffer fools gladly.  And it sounds like he perceived Walt P as a fool he wasn't willing to tolerate.

 

Not trying to diss either Walt or Terran, but the contrasts between those two and James and Cope couldn't be more stark.

 

Whereas Terran was moody and brooding and played with his emotions on his sleeve, James is a cut-up.  You watch him coming off the floor and he's almost always grabbing one of his teammates and laughing about something.

 

And Cope seems quiet but workmanlike and all business.  He gets his touches and I think he knows there are plenty to go around.  

 

They just seem like they're playing for something bigger than individual goals.

 

To add to the positive chemistry for this year's team, you have Glynn, who is the consummate professional out there, and Roby, who at times isn't selfish enough.

 

From a distance, these guys just look like they get along and enjoy playing with each other and have set some team goals rather than individual ones.  I think it's a night-and-day difference compared to the Petteway-Pitchford teams.

[49r]

I sure do miss having RPI Forecast though.  It's not being updated any more, and that's a damn travesty.

[Handy Johnson]

This team really hasn't even scratched the surface, and we're still a LOAD to handle. B1G play is only going to put more of a shine on us, but I'll officially know we're "Legit" when they let me put the Huskers on the big TV at Critter's instead of "Wheel of Fortune."