Jump to content

Top 4 B1G Finish?

Handy Johnson

By Handy Johnson
in The Haymarket Hardwood

 Share

Recommended Posts

Handy Johnson

Handy Johnson

Posted
Posted

With the Cornhuskers off to a 2 -0 Conference start, how possible (likely?) is a top 4 finish with double digit wins? While the B1G is a deep and competitive league this year, there is currently no one ranked in the Top 10, and no one  that I would say clearly out classes us. Just curious, what say you other Ballers?

49r

49r

Posted
Posted

According to RPI Forecast, it's gonna take 10 wins minimum to get a top 4 finish.  Here are the current win probabilities for Nebraska:

 

Final Record Expected RPI Probability
21-8 14.0 0.01%
19-10 22.7 0.12%
18-11 28.8 0.49%
17-12 35.2 1.80%
16-13 43.3 5.15%
15-14 53.7 10.04%
14-15 65.5 17.42%
13-16 78.4 21.62%
12-17 92.0 19.42%
11-18 106.8 13.36%
10-19 121.7 7.35%
9-20 138.2 2.58%
8-21 153.0 0.62%
7-22 185.0 0.01%

 

For RPI purposes, we are 7-6 with two conference wins.  So to get to 10 we need to get the overall record to 15-14.  Looks like a 1 in 10 shot right now.

AuroranHusker

AuroranHusker

Posted
Posted (edited)
6 minutes ago, 49r said:

According to RPI Forecast, it's gonna take 10 wins minimum to get a top 4 finish.  Here are the current win probabilities for Nebraska:

 

Final Record Expected RPI Probability
21-8 14.0 0.01%
19-10 22.7 0.12%
18-11 28.8 0.49%
17-12 35.2 1.80%
16-13 43.3 5.15%
15-14 53.7 10.04%
14-15 65.5 17.42%
13-16 78.4 21.62%
12-17 92.0 19.42%
11-18 106.8 13.36%
10-19 121.7 7.35%
9-20 138.2 2.58%
8-21 153.0 0.62%
7-22 185.0 0.01%

 

For RPI purposes, we are 7-6 with two conference wins.  So to get to 10 we need to get the overall record to 15-14.  Looks like a 1 in 10 shot right now.

 

Adding the percentages of the 'better' record in is a good indicator of the 'odds.' As in, NU with "at least" 10 B1G wins... that's 1 in 6 for a better than .500 overall record (as it would be with 10+ B1G victories).

 

 

Edited by AuroranHusker
*For clarity*
Norm Peterson

Norm Peterson

Posted
Posted
3 hours ago, Handy Johnson said:

So yer sayin' there's a chance...

 

 

P.S. It's not complete drinkin' the Kool-Aide talk to think we can go 3 -1 out of the next four. Then we'll see what happens after that.

 

 

As a fan, I can certainly live with dropping the next road game if we win the next 3 at home.  And I think we can win those next 3 at home.

kleitus

kleitus

Posted
Posted

Anyone who says that they legit thought we had a shot beyond a snowball's in hades to start 5-1... well we know they're lying.

 

Heck if they were ok with 4-2 as a prediction they were lying too.

 

This start is mind blowing because 3 of the next four are ours to win.  I just hope these kids aren't afraid of success and just keep grinding.  If they do that we control ourselves at this point.

 

There isn't a game left that we can't win.  Who'da thunk?

 

The Polish Rifle

The Polish Rifle

Posted
Posted
57 minutes ago, kleitus said:

Anyone who says that they legit thought we had a shot beyond a snowball's in hades to start 5-1... well we know they're lying.

 

Heck if they were ok with 4-2 as a prediction they were lying too.

 

This start is mind blowing because 3 of the next four are ours to win.  I just hope these kids aren't afraid of success and just keep grinding.  If they do that we control ourselves at this point.

 

There isn't a game left that we can't win.  Who'da thunk?

 

I've sworn off doubting this team. Glad I didn't predict a score in the last two prediction threads because I'd look like an absolute idiot.

kleitus

kleitus

Posted
Posted
2 hours ago, The Polish Rifle said:

I've sworn off doubting this team. Glad I didn't predict a score in the last two prediction threads because I'd look like an absolute idiot.

Don't blame you.  I think we will lose two more games we probably shouldnt.  I also think we win two more we shouldnt and several tossups.

 

What's that mean?  Enjoy the damn ride. 

aphilso1

aphilso1

Posted
Posted

The coaches and players can't look past the next game.  Us fans can look toward any game we want to and speculate to our hearts' content (which I plan to do in excess until we finally lose a conference game).

49r

49r

Posted
Posted
7 minutes ago, huskercwg said:

 

We CANNOT look beyond the next game.

 

 

2 minutes ago, aphilso1 said:

 

The coaches and players can't look past the next game.

 

 

Guarantee the team is 100% focused on Iowa, they got it on lock right now.

Huskerpapa

Huskerpapa

Posted
Posted
4 minutes ago, aphilso1 said:

The coaches and players can't look past the next game.  Us fans can look toward any game we want to and speculate to our hearts' content (which I plan to do in excess until we finally lose a conference game).

Unfortunately, players, in particular young players, like to read about themselves and their team.  If you do not believe that, take a look at their tweets.  Not saying we make a huge difference.  Yet when fans are looking ahead, or beyond the next game on the schedule, you will see players doing the same thing...perfect example is looking beyond G-W for the Big Ten games.

49r

49r

Posted
Posted
1 minute ago, huskercwg said:

Yet I worry.

 

That's what we as fans do.  We worry...we debate what's going to happen in games 6 weeks from now...but for the team it's all about the next game.  They know what's at stake...you don't get to this level with any other mindset.

Huskerpapa

Huskerpapa

Posted
Posted
16 minutes ago, 49r said:

 

That's what we as fans do.  We worry...we debate what's going to happen in games 6 weeks from now...but for the team it's all about the next game.  They know what's at stake...you don't get to this level with any other mindset.

Ahhh, I really wish that was true.  I know however, that the players (and coaches) can still get caught looking beyond what is directly in front of them.  It is like saying that everyone knows and abides by the rule that you shouldn't text and drive...yet it happens; and when it happens, bad things can happen.

HuskerActuary

HuskerActuary

Posted
Posted
7 hours ago, TimSmiles said:

top 4 seems like a stretch at this point. we just lost to gardener webb a couple weeks ago. if we beat iowa, then i think you can say we should have a great chance at finishing in the top 6. if we beat iowa and northwestern, then i think you can start talking about top 4.

Spot on

royalfan

royalfan

Posted
Posted

The look ahead thing is way overblown in general IMO.  If a team loses a game they should win it doesn't have to be that they were looking ahead, or was full of themselves or another such narrative.  It can simply be that they didn't play well or the other team played above their norm.  This is most often the case in a one game sample size, not looking ahead or this or that.  When a 3 point line is involved it can be a very fickle line between winning and losing. 

huskerbaseball13

huskerbaseball13

Posted
Posted

We were the last team to go 11-7 in conference and finish within the top 4.  12-6 or better seems to be the ideal number, but outside of Rutgers almost any Big Ten team can win on any given night.  Going 11-7 again may get us in the top 4 this year.  Outside of Wiscy and Purdue I think every other team is capable of losing 7+ games.   

Join the conversation

You can post now and register later. If you have an account, sign in now to post with your account.

Guest
Reply to this topic...

×   Pasted as rich text.   Paste as plain text instead

  Only 75 emoji are allowed.

×   Your link has been automatically embedded.   Display as a link instead

×   Your previous content has been restored.   Clear editor

×   You cannot paste images directly. Upload or insert images from URL.

×
 Share
Go to topic listing
×
×
  • Create New...