Nebraska and NIT

[swmckewon]

My sense of NIT bubble (for a team with Nebraska's resume) is 19 wins.

 

11-7 league record with 0-1 record at Big Ten Tourney. (19-13) - Yes

10-8 league record with a 1-1 record at Big Ten Tourney. (19-14) - Probably

10-8 league record with 0-1 record at Big Ten Tourney. (18-14) - Doubt it. 

9-9 league record with 1-1 record at Big Ten Tourney (18-15) - Really doubt it.

8-10 league record with 1-1 record at Big Ten Tourney (17-15) - No

 

 

 

[AuroranHusker]

It's my sense that Nebraska isn't thinking N.I.T. with the 4 B1G games happening in the very near future. Check back after the next 4 are in the books. Enjoy the ride, Big Red Basketball, as 3 straight double-digit wins haven't been all that common, especially with 2 of the 3 on the road. GBR

[HuskerTex]

I think going .500 in the B1G will get them into the NIT. Then I think getting 1-2 wins in the tourney puts them firmly on the NCAA bubble. But I think I'm getting way ahead of things here

[Norm Peterson]

My sense of NIT bubble (for a team with Nebraska's resume) is 19 wins.

 

11-7 league record with 0-1 record at Big Ten Tourney. (19-13) - Yes

10-8 league record with a 1-1 record at Big Ten Tourney. (19-14) - Probably

10-8 league record with 0-1 record at Big Ten Tourney. (18-14) - Doubt it. 

9-9 league record with 1-1 record at Big Ten Tourney (18-15) - Really doubt it.

8-10 league record with 1-1 record at Big Ten Tourney (17-15) - No

8-5 record in non-conference games is in the books.  Loss to Samford hurts the most in terms of post-season resume but a win against Miami, if we'd closed them out in regulation, would have mitigated that loss almost entirely, probably.  So, it's almost a toss-up as to which you'd rather have.  Either way, we needed to probably be no worse than 9-4 OOC.

 

But 11-7 B1G record takes us to 21-12 overall.  Two games in the B1G tourney would take us to 22-13.  And we'd have to find some wins in there against some pretty good teams to reach that mark.

 

I'm not saying we could even get there, but if we did, I'd have to think that would be NCAA bubble territory, no?

[HF_]

Yeah, if we get to 11-7 we are in regardless IMO.  10-8 might need to snag a win or 2 in conference tourney.

 

9-9, guaranteed we are in NIT, lead pipe lock.

[swmckewon]

 

My sense of NIT bubble (for a team with Nebraska's resume) is 19 wins.

 

11-7 league record with 0-1 record at Big Ten Tourney. (19-13) - Yes

10-8 league record with a 1-1 record at Big Ten Tourney. (19-14) - Probably

10-8 league record with 0-1 record at Big Ten Tourney. (18-14) - Doubt it. 

9-9 league record with 1-1 record at Big Ten Tourney (18-15) - Really doubt it.

8-10 league record with 1-1 record at Big Ten Tourney (17-15) - No

 

 

But 11-7 B1G record takes us to 21-12 overall.  Two games in the B1G tourney would take us to 22-13.  And we'd have to find some wins in there against some pretty good teams to reach that mark.

 

 

 

An 11-7 B1G record takes Nebraska to 19-12. It's 11-8, 3-3 now, an 8-4 record from here is 19-12. 

 

To get to 21 wins before the B1G Tournament Nebraska would have to go 13-5 in the league, or a 10-2 record from here. 

[brfrad]

A lot will depend on the performance of the 1 bid regular season conference champions in their conference tournaments. They receive an automatic bid into the NIT if they don't win their conference tournament. Nebraska is 176 in the RPI. They jumped 20 spots with a road victory against an average Illinois team. Samford is still under 200 in the RPI.

[hskr4life]

11-7 league record with 1-1 record at Big Ten Tourney. (20-13)- NCAA Lock

11-7 league record with 0-1 record at Big Ten Tourney. (19-13) - NCAA Bubble, NIT lock

10-8 league record with a 1-1 record at Big Ten Tourney. (19-14) - NIT lock

10-8 league record with 0-1 record at Big Ten Tourney. (18-14) - NIT right side of bubble 

9-9 league record with 1-1 record at Big Ten Tourney (18-15) - NIT bubble

8-10 league record with 1-1 record at Big Ten Tourney (17-15) - NIT wrong side of bubble

 

Our league record will help to offset that Samford loss.  Our resume will look pretty good with conference wins on it... we have one bad OOC loss.  Remember, the committee also looks at how a team finished the season.  A Nebraska team who started off 0-3 in conference and finished 11-4 will look pretty good and will have shown the improvement to compete at a high level.  We have a long ways to go to see how this plays out.

[husker8282]

According to RPI forecast an 11-7 league record and an 19-12 finish to the regular season would give us an RPI of 95 pending the conf. tourney.  That will not get us into the NCAAs.  That would honestly be NIT bubble territory really, though I think it would get us in.  Nebraska has an expected non-conference SOS of 276 which will not give us the benefit of the doubt in either the NCAA or NIT discussions.  

[Huskerpapa]

I just want to win the next one.  Take care of business and we will see what happens come March.

[bigred4]

According to RPI forecast an 11-7 league record and an 19-12 finish to the regular season would give us an RPI of 95 pending the conf. tourney.  That will not get us into the NCAAs.  That would honestly be NIT bubble territory really, though I think it would get us in.  Nebraska has an expected non-conference SOS of 276 which will not give us the benefit of the doubt in either the NCAA or NIT discussions.  

 

 

MVST (2-16) - 328 (out of 351)

DSU (0-15) - 349

SE LA. (0-15) - 350

ACU (3-10) - 345

PV A & M (1-15) - 342

 

This non-con was put together for a team full of youth, but won't help at all in March.  Two years ago we only played 2 300+ teams.  Same reason why Northwestern is 15-4 and has a RPI of 117.

[Silverbacked1]

According to RPI forecast an 11-7 league record and an 19-12 finish to the regular season would give us an RPI of 95 pending the conf. tourney.  That will not get us into the NCAAs.  That would honestly be NIT bubble territory really, though I think it would get us in.  Nebraska has an expected non-conference SOS of 276 which will not give us the benefit of the doubt in either the NCAA or NIT discussions.

 

MVST (2-16) - 328 (out of 351)

DSU (0-15) - 349

SE LA. (0-15) - 350

ACU (3-10) - 345

PV A & M (1-15) - 342

 

This non-con was put together for a team full of youth, but won't help at all in March.  Two years ago we only played 2 300+ teams.  Same reason why Northwestern is 15-4 and has a RPI of 117.

two of those games where because of the New York tournament but yeah it wasn't great, however was needed as we had some things to work out and did have to play four teams in the top 50.

[hhcmatt]

 

According to RPI forecast an 11-7 league record and an 19-12 finish to the regular season would give us an RPI of 95 pending the conf. tourney.  That will not get us into the NCAAs.  That would honestly be NIT bubble territory really, though I think it would get us in.  Nebraska has an expected non-conference SOS of 276 which will not give us the benefit of the doubt in either the NCAA or NIT discussions.  

 

 

MVST (2-16) - 328 (out of 351)

DSU (0-15) - 349

SE LA. (0-15) - 350

ACU (3-10) - 345

PV A & M (1-15) - 342

 

This non-con was put together for a team full of youth, but won't help at all in March.  Two years ago we only played 2 300+ teams.  Same reason why Northwestern is 15-4 and has a RPI of 117.

 

 

Agreed. I don't think 20 wins would be enough for the tourney. Check out 2014 Minnesota

[hhcmatt]

My sense of NIT bubble (for a team with Nebraska's resume) is 19 wins.

 

11-7 league record with 0-1 record at Big Ten Tourney. (19-13) - Yes

10-8 league record with a 1-1 record at Big Ten Tourney. (19-14) - Probably

10-8 league record with 0-1 record at Big Ten Tourney. (18-14) - Doubt it. 

9-9 league record with 1-1 record at Big Ten Tourney (18-15) - Really doubt it.

8-10 league record with 1-1 record at Big Ten Tourney (17-15) - No

 

I'd agree with all of this except for the 10-8 making or not making it depending on the conference. If we get to 18 total wins before the tourney, it will have to be against at least 1 top tier team or some good enough road competition. At 10-8 we're also not going to see a resume boosting opponent

[Dead Dog Alley]

If Sam is right, that would show the effects of including Rutgers in the conference.  When was the last time a Big Ten team went 0.500 in conference and was 2 games over 0.500 overall didn't make the NIT?  I don't know for sure but I'd imagine it was quite some time ago. But the selection committees now might not value 9-9, 10-8, or 11-7 quite as much if that includes two wins against Rutgers, if Rutgers continues to struggle.

[aphilso1]

If Sam is right, that would show the effects of including Rutgers in the conference.  When was the last time a Big Ten team went 0.500 in conference and was 2 games over 0.500 overall didn't make the NIT?  I don't know for sure but I'd imagine it was quite some time ago. But the selection committees now might not value 9-9, 10-8, or 11-7 quite as much if that includes two wins against Rutgers, if Rutgers continues to struggle.

 Except that Maryland was added at the same time, and I've got to think that adding a Final Four quality team and a cellar dweller should at worst be considered a slight bump to the conference's prestige. 

[gobigredbrah]

9-9 would get this team on the NIT bubble, toss up

9-9 w/ 1 B1G tourney win = slightly favored to get in NIT

10-8 is an NIT lock.

10-8 + 2-1 big ten tourney = barely on the NCAA bubble, won't get in though.

11-7 would put NU in the bubble. Going 0-1 in the B1G tourney = favored not to get in.

11-7 w/ 1 win in the B1G tourney = slightly favored to get in.

12-6 is an NCAA tourney lock w/ a lot of outsiders complaining

 

5 losses in OOC play + too many weak 300 teams will really hurt NU's post season chances in the long run.

[hhcmatt]

If Sam is right, that would show the effects of including Rutgers in the conference.  When was the last time a Big Ten team went 0.500 in conference and was 2 games over 0.500 overall didn't make the NIT?  I don't know for sure but I'd imagine it was quite some time ago. But the selection committees now might not value 9-9, 10-8, or 11-7 quite as much if that includes two wins against Rutgers, if Rutgers continues to struggle.

 

Got a lot more to do with our non-con than our conference games. 

[Norm Peterson]

 

 

My sense of NIT bubble (for a team with Nebraska's resume) is 19 wins.

 

11-7 league record with 0-1 record at Big Ten Tourney. (19-13) - Yes

10-8 league record with a 1-1 record at Big Ten Tourney. (19-14) - Probably

10-8 league record with 0-1 record at Big Ten Tourney. (18-14) - Doubt it. 

9-9 league record with 1-1 record at Big Ten Tourney (18-15) - Really doubt it.

8-10 league record with 1-1 record at Big Ten Tourney (17-15) - No

 

 

But 11-7 B1G record takes us to 21-12 overall.  Two games in the B1G tourney would take us to 22-13.  And we'd have to find some wins in there against some pretty good teams to reach that mark.

 

 

 

An 11-7 B1G record takes Nebraska to 19-12. It's 11-8, 3-3 now, an 8-4 record from here is 19-12. 

 

To get to 21 wins before the B1G Tournament Nebraska would have to go 13-5 in the league, or a 10-2 record from here. 

 

I was never good at math.

[swmckewon]

11-7 league record with 1-1 record at Big Ten Tourney. (20-13)- NCAA Lock

No way. 

[trickey]

 

11-7 league record with 1-1 record at Big Ten Tourney. (20-13)- NCAA Lock

No way. 

 

 

Here is NU's schedule the rest of the season...Now you are saying if they went 8 and 4; they would not make the tournament!

 

Wed, 

Jan 20

Michigan State * - at East Lansing, Mich. 5:30 p.m.   BTN ▪ HSN Sat, 

Jan 23

Michigan * - Pinnacle Bank Arena 1:00 p.m.   ESPN or ESPN2 ▪ HSN Sat, 

Jan 30

Purdue * - at West Lafayette, Ind. 3:30 p.m.   BTN ▪ HSN Wed, 

Feb 03

Maryland * - Pinnacle Bank Arena 7:30 p.m.   BTN ▪ HSN Sat, 

Feb 06

Rutgers * - Pinnacle Bank Arena 1:00 p.m.   ESPNU ▪ HSN Wed, 

Feb 10

Wisconsin * - at Madison, Wis. 6:00 p.m.   BTN ▪ HSN Sat, 

Feb 13

Penn State * - Pinnacle Bank Arena 5:00 p.m.   ESPNU ▪ HSN Wed, 

Feb 17

Indiana * - at Bloomington, Ind. 7:30 p.m.   BTN ▪ HSN Sat, 

Feb 20

 -

 Sun, Feb 21 Ohio State * - Pinnacle Bank Arena TBA   HSN Thu, 

Feb 25

Penn State * - at State College, Pa. 6:00 p.m.   ESPNU ▪ HSN Tue, 

Mar 01

Purdue * - Pinnacle Bank Arena 7:00 p.m.   BTN ▪ HSN Sun, 

Mar 06

Northwestern * - at Evanston, Ill. 1:00 p.m.   BTN ▪ HSN

 

So, which 8 games could they win and still not make the tournament?

We remember 2 years ago they were 19 - 11 and made the dance. Why is the league's image so much worse this year that 2 MORE wins will not get this team in?

Just curious.

Not trying to imply NU will do it...just wondering why it is so impossible this early.

Or am I just misunderstanding what you are trying to say?

[hhcmatt]

 

 

11-7 league record with 1-1 record at Big Ten Tourney. (20-13)- NCAA Lock

No way. 

 

 

We remember 2 years ago they were 19 - 11 and made the dance. Why is the league's image so much worse this year that 2 MORE wins will not get this team in?

 

1. The B1G isn't as good as it was 2 years ago

2. Our non-con opponents looked better to computers two years ago

 

12-6 league record is a lock

11-7 + 1 and 1 conf tourney, where the one win will be against another garbage B1G team, is a maybe that I'm optimistic about.

Should you think the stars will align, time to start rooting for Samford

[uneblinstu]

A lot of it depends on who they get the wins against. To get to 18 wins, they're going to have to win at least two games most people don't expect them to win. That means they have to win the toss-up home games vs. Michigan and Ohio State. That won't be easy, but it is do-able. They must take care of business with Rutgers and Penn St. x 2. They have to get those 5. They probably won't be expected to win any of the other games as things stand right now. Who do the other two or three wins come against? Wisconsin? Possible. Northwestern? Perhaps. Those are the two most likely. They'll need a big upset, though. If they go nuts and pick up a win over Maryland and/or Purdue at home then 18 wins will get them into the NIT fairly easily. If they merely take care of business, at home without the benefit of a major upset, they might be only NIT bubbleicious.

 

An NIT home game or two wouldn't be a terrible thing for this team.

[hhctony]

My sense of NIT bubble (for a team with Nebraska's resume) is 19 wins.

 

11-7 league record with 0-1 record at Big Ten Tourney. (19-13) - Yes

10-8 league record with a 1-1 record at Big Ten Tourney. (19-14) - Probably

10-8 league record with 0-1 record at Big Ten Tourney. (18-14) - Doubt it. 

9-9 league record with 1-1 record at Big Ten Tourney (18-15) - Really doubt it.

8-10 league record with 1-1 record at Big Ten Tourney (17-15) - No

 

Sam -- Thanks for being on this board. It's appreciated. Your insights are fantastic.

 

I generally agree with this thought. I don't think 11-7 is good enough without a tournament win to be in the NCAA. I also think Nebraska needs to find a way to win all their home games (with the exception of Purdue and Maryland, but win ONE of those two would be huge). We need some better stuff on our resume. Michigan State would be a start.

[MichHusker]

I don't wanna waste Shavons senior year by not playing in a postseason tournament