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Everything posted by hhctony

  1. Would anyone care to see a "Selection Committee" Games of Interest thread that would be updated daily? I figure we just as well go "all-in" on the tournament talk and would be willing to put this together if others had interest.
  2. hhctony

    Selection Committee Games of Interest

    My apologies for starting it.
  3. I am hoping to do some more research on this with the new tiers for the Selection Committee this year, but as we speak, here is what our "resume" would look like. I'll try to keep this post as current as possible. Edited to show games through January 22. Nebraska currently 67 in RPI. Tier 1 (0-5): Michigan State (27), Creighton (35), Kansas (7), Purdue (10), Ohio State (15). REMAINING: at Minnesota (75). Tier 2 (4-3): St. Johns (81), UCF (57), Boston College (66), Minnesota (75), Northwestern (123), Penn State (135), Michigan (38). REMAINING: at Wisconsin (133), vs. Maryland (52). Tier 3 (2-0): Long Beach State (167), Wisconsin (133). REMAINING: at Rutgers (179), vs. Iowa (150), at Illinois (172), vs. Indiana (91), vs. Penn State (135). Tier 4 (8-0): Eastern Illinois (277), North Texas (202), North Dakota (207), Marist (326), UTSA (276), Delaware State (351), Stetson (291), Illinois (172). REMAINING: vs. Rutgers (179) Obviously, the tiers will fluctuate as the season continues to move on. Michigan getting in Tier 1 territory would be a nice bonus. And, of our 10 remaining games we only have four that are currently in Tier One or Tier Two. It will be interesting to see how the committee looks at your tier records this year. The good thing our team has now, is zero bad losses. It would be nice if we could keep it that way and win at Rutgers and at Illinois. I'm not overly concerned about losing to Ohio State (but, it sure would be a heck of a resume builder) because that's an easy one to overcome.
  4. hhctony

    Selection Committee Games of Interest

    11-3 WITH Colson, including losses to Michigan State, Indiana and Ball State. But, I hear the Big Ten is down.
  5. hhctony

    Selection Committee Games of Interest

    Boston College with a nice win. I don't think there is a single reason to worry about Vermont. If they lose in their tourney it will be a loss worthy of any consideration (and they don't have much to stand on anyway).
  6. hhctony

    A Friendly Wager

    I'll play Cip! I have a weird good feeling about your gut feeling as well.
  7. This is why I love doing this kind of stuff. I kind of lean UCLA over Washington right now. Bruins have Arizona and Kentucky wins HTH over Washington. The Arizona, Sun Devil sweep for Washington was at home. 1/2 game lead in standings. Who knows, right? The beauty of the human element.
  8. Just completely realized I left the SEC out of my original post. All -- I think this gives us a pretty accurate picture of who is involved in what we have left over the next few weeks. We need a few things to happen that we should watch over as the tournaments kick up. 1. One-Bid Leagues: Marked here with seeds 48-68 (The Valley to the SWAC). In addition, to create the biggest at-large pool available we need the MWC and Conference USA to be one-bid leagues. Certainly Nevada and Middle Tennessee could both steal bids from Nebraska and others. So, 23 one-bid leagues is our perfect number. 2. Non-Power Six Leagues: Here is what we need to keep an eye on in the West Coast Conference, the Atlantic 10 and the American. The teams we want to win these are tournaments are as follows: Gonzaga or St. Mary's (WCC), Rhode Island or St. Bonaventure (A-10) and Cincinnati, Houston or Wichita State (American). Why? Because most of these teams are most certainly in (you'd likely move St. Mary's and St. Bonaventure in with the bubble if they lost). So if you have three of those teams win, you only take four at-large bids from the non-Power Six schools. 3. That leaves: 32 spots for the Power-Six and the biggest pool imaginable for us. Right now I can see that break down a few ways: ACC (7 teams really good, up to 10 still fighting which leaves 6 pretty good and 9 fighting for spots); Big 12 (lot of things going on here, but I'll say 6 in good shape and two more fighting, leaves 5 and 7); Big East (6 in good shape and one still fighting, leaves 5 and 6); Big Ten (Four stone cold locks, one fighting, two real long shots, so 3 and 3 here left), Pac-12 (1 lock and up to 8 fighting, so if Arizona would win the tournament that could add even another spot to the at-large pool), SEC (3 comfortable and 7 more on the bubble). 4. The math: Locked in at-larges (in my opinion). ACC (6), Big 12 (5/11), Big East (5/16), Big Ten (3/19), Pac-12 (1/20), SEC (3/23). So that leaves 9 teams to still go (and it would be 10 if Arizona won the Pac-12 tournament) and 22 or so teams to get those spots. I knew the odds seemed to good in my original post. I think the think to realized with all the middling in the Pac-12 and the SEC that the teams that lose in the quarterfinals will be sweating big time is my guess. You don't need to agree with the picture below (I don't, but it is from the Bracket Matrix champ from last year and he is the five-year overall leader as well), but it gives you an idea of what we are competing against. About three ACC schools, two Big 12, one Big East and seven Pac-12 if I did the math right. We have rightly positioned ourselves well ahead of the two B1G long shots in my opinion.
  9. Decent point here. The committee sheets place these into a pair of 3-metric averages. RPI, KPI and SOR are together: Nebraska is 53. The other three BPI, KenPom, Sagarin: 61. Also the sheet shows the overall average of both.
  10. Completely agree. Which is why it's so fun. I'd actually stump for Nebraska, I'm just trying to point out as objectively as I can (by taking off my Husker shades) that other teams that are right there with us have some "better win" cards that they can lay on the table. I love the discussion.
  11. The beautiful thing about all of this is it most likely will play itself out in the next couple of weeks. Syracuse: hast to travel to Boston College and host Clemson. They would need to win both to stay ahead of Nebraska in my mind. UCLA: has to play at USC which will be a de facto elimination game I think. Baylor: hosts Oklahoma and plays at Kansas State to close the season. They won't get in with a 7-11 league mark, but might at 8-10. Texas: at KU and v West Virginia to close the season. See Baylor. I think these seem to be the four teams we are really competing against. Maybe a few others, but that seems what it looks like to me.
  12. @ Arizona. Kentucky (neutral). Would you like to show comparable Nebraska wins?
  13. Baylor, UCLA, Texas and Syracuse all have better resume's than us currently. Even watching LSU and Oregon possibly creep up on us a little bit. LSU has six top-30 wins which is pretty impressive.
  14. You can call the RPI flawed if you wish, but that team who is also being deemed "not worthy" defeated Arizona in Tucson and Kentucky on a neutral court. Nebraska, as of this moment, can't put a single win against either of those two. To think otherwise seems flawed as well, if you ask me. Also, I don't want folks to think I am out here trying to rain on our NCAA parade. I guess I am just trying to be honest and look at things as objectively as I can, much like @Cookie Miller Wasn't Dirty and @HuskerActuary. I hope you guys don't kick us out. :-)
  15. To me it's a must, actually. And, even then, I think we are just on the edge. I am going to try to build an actual seed list tomorrow. Just consider, Lunardi has this team just out ahead of us. Nebraska in bold. Q1 and Q2: 5-7. Q3 and Q4: 14-2. Top-50: 4-5. Top-100: 8-8. Q1 and Q2: 3-8. Q3 and Q4: 19-1. Top 50: 1-5. Top-100: 4-8.
  16. I've been looking at resumes for awhile. I guess I am just hoping the committee likes how we look on the hardwood as opposed to the paper. Because, to me, it doesn't look very good.
  17. hhctony

    Watkins out

    No. In fact, I'd think a win would certainly keep Penn State ahead of us in the pecking order given what we see on a daily basis.
  18. hhctony

    It's Time to Subscribe

    My first job out of college was in the print business at the Clay County News in Sutton. I now work in banking full time and do some preps writing on the side as well as help with a tech start-up that streams high school games and tells stories about coaches and players. To be the newspaper model is broken, but still needed if that makes sense. Here in Grand Island at The Independent they just booted three employees this week as well and our shrinking the paper again. We are coming to a time where we'll get our newspaper digitally and stop printing it all together, to be honest. I know that bothers some, but it doesn't bother me. I still fight back and forth about paying for the content (because of this thread, I subscribed to the OWH this morning digitally). In my opinion, we should be getting the OWH and LJS digitally in front of kids. They should go out to schools and offer unlimited access for whatever $250 a year to every school in the state or something. At 300 schools/year, that'd pay someone's salary at both of our big state papers. I fear the day that #nebpreps game story is me tweeting, clicking "add to thread" and then at the end of the game, I "quote tweet" my thread and that's the story. And, while I fear, I almost think it makes sense even.
  19. If we win that game we trade West Virginia (29) for Marist (326) and then we trade Long Beach State (if we lose, West Virginia) for a second St. John's game. Anyone who plays with those RPI gizmos figure out how the would effect our non-conference SOS? I shutter to think about it.
  20. Right now Texas is certainly more deserving than Nebraska. They will need some wins, though.
  21. I'll be real curious to see how this plays out, but there is a part of me that says IF (Q1+Q2 WINS) > (Q3+Q4 LOSSES) your chances of dancing dramatically increase.
  22. hhctony

    a Hot Take

    This year. At the Garden. Against Ohio State.
  23. hhctony

    Selection Committee Games of Interest

    No argument. But, the Big East won a whole bunch of non-conference games and they reward their schools by getting home-and-home for every team in the league. Nebraska, as it turned out, had one chance -- ONE -- at a home Tier One game this year. Right now, every Big East team has a chance at four. Pretty nuts.
  24. hhctony

    Selection Committee Games of Interest

    Xavier. Creighton. Washington (N). @ Marquette. @ St. John's.
  25. hhctony

    Selection Committee Games of Interest

    Given what Penn State has left if they catch us, they’ll have a way better resume than Nebraska.