hhctony

The game really has changed. Go look at any shot chart now. There are very few 12-18 foot jump shots even attempted, let alone made. Drive and attack the basket, score in the post or take threes (and hope to make a 35-40% clip). That's how college basketball is now. I am not smart enough to post Nebraska's shot chart on Saturday but it's similar. Go look at any Gonzaga or Duke game as well.

Posted this over the NET Rankings thread as an overview of what we have left, but appears it may generate a bit more discussion here. If you don't like it here @49r, I am happy to take it down. Love this thread and your work on it. In looking at what we have left, it appears we'll have as follows. 1. Only one remaining game that would be Quadrant 4 (CS-Fullerton) and projected 5-0 in that quadrant. 2. We are 2-0 in Quadrant 3 and have one remaining game (Penn State, 76 at home) in that quadrant. If Penn State were to get in top-75 and stay there, this would be a quadrant 2 game. (Illinois at 125 currently, could get there. The cutoff for road games is 135). 3. Nebraska is yet to play a quadrant 2 game, but will on Saturday against Creighton and also Oklahoma State (neutral). The Cowboys need to stay in the top-100 to stay as a quadrant 2. Possible quadrant 2 games in Big Ten play: Northwestern (55, at home), Maryland (33, at home), Penn State (76, road), Iowa (48, at home), Illinois (125, road). 4. RIGHT NOW THE REST OF OUR GAMES ARE QUADRANT ONE! (Related: We might lose some more games)

In looking at what we have left, it appears we'll have as follows. 1. Only one remaining game that would be Quadrant 4 (CS-Fullerton) and 5-0 in that quadrant. 2. We are 2-0 in Quadrant 3 and have one remaining game (Penn State, 76 at home) in that quadrant. If Penn State were to get in top-75 and stay there, this would be a quadrant 2 game. (Illinois at 125 currently, could get there. The cutoff for road games is 135). 3. Nebraska is yet to play a quadrant 2 game, but will on Saturday against Creighton and also Oklahoma State (neutral). The Cowboys need to stay in the top-100 to stay as a quadrant 2. Possible quadrant 2 games in Big Ten play: Northwestern (55, at home), Maryland (33, at home), Penn State (76, road), Iowa (48, at home), Illinois (125, road). 4. RIGHT NOW THE REST OF OUR GAMES ARE QUADRANT ONE! (Related: We might lose some more games)

Here is a link to the NCAA "Team Sheets" which update daily and give a little more data than that base home ranking page. NCAA Team Sheets

The league is gonna be something this year. Mercy sakes, 12-8 should be a heck of a record.

My apologies for starting it.

11-3 WITH Colson, including losses to Michigan State, Indiana and Ball State. But, I hear the Big Ten is down.

Boston College with a nice win. I don't think there is a single reason to worry about Vermont. If they lose in their tourney it will be a loss worthy of any consideration (and they don't have much to stand on anyway).

I'll play Cip! I have a weird good feeling about your gut feeling as well.

This is why I love doing this kind of stuff. I kind of lean UCLA over Washington right now. Bruins have Arizona and Kentucky wins HTH over Washington. The Arizona, Sun Devil sweep for Washington was at home. 1/2 game lead in standings. Who knows, right? The beauty of the human element.

Just completely realized I left the SEC out of my original post. All -- I think this gives us a pretty accurate picture of who is involved in what we have left over the next few weeks. We need a few things to happen that we should watch over as the tournaments kick up. 1. One-Bid Leagues: Marked here with seeds 48-68 (The Valley to the SWAC). In addition, to create the biggest at-large pool available we need the MWC and Conference USA to be one-bid leagues. Certainly Nevada and Middle Tennessee could both steal bids from Nebraska and others. So, 23 one-bid leagues is our perfect number. 2. Non-Power Six Leagues: Here is what we need to keep an eye on in the West Coast Conference, the Atlantic 10 and the American. The teams we want to win these are tournaments are as follows: Gonzaga or St. Mary's (WCC), Rhode Island or St. Bonaventure (A-10) and Cincinnati, Houston or Wichita State (American). Why? Because most of these teams are most certainly in (you'd likely move St. Mary's and St. Bonaventure in with the bubble if they lost). So if you have three of those teams win, you only take four at-large bids from the non-Power Six schools. 3. That leaves: 32 spots for the Power-Six and the biggest pool imaginable for us. Right now I can see that break down a few ways: ACC (7 teams really good, up to 10 still fighting which leaves 6 pretty good and 9 fighting for spots); Big 12 (lot of things going on here, but I'll say 6 in good shape and two more fighting, leaves 5 and 7); Big East (6 in good shape and one still fighting, leaves 5 and 6); Big Ten (Four stone cold locks, one fighting, two real long shots, so 3 and 3 here left), Pac-12 (1 lock and up to 8 fighting, so if Arizona would win the tournament that could add even another spot to the at-large pool), SEC (3 comfortable and 7 more on the bubble). 4. The math: Locked in at-larges (in my opinion). ACC (6), Big 12 (5/11), Big East (5/16), Big Ten (3/19), Pac-12 (1/20), SEC (3/23). So that leaves 9 teams to still go (and it would be 10 if Arizona won the Pac-12 tournament) and 22 or so teams to get those spots. I knew the odds seemed to good in my original post. I think the think to realized with all the middling in the Pac-12 and the SEC that the teams that lose in the quarterfinals will be sweating big time is my guess. You don't need to agree with the picture below (I don't, but it is from the Bracket Matrix champ from last year and he is the five-year overall leader as well), but it gives you an idea of what we are competing against. About three ACC schools, two Big 12, one Big East and seven Pac-12 if I did the math right. We have rightly positioned ourselves well ahead of the two B1G long shots in my opinion.

Decent point here. The committee sheets place these into a pair of 3-metric averages. RPI, KPI and SOR are together: Nebraska is 53. The other three BPI, KenPom, Sagarin: 61. Also the sheet shows the overall average of both.

Completely agree. Which is why it's so fun. I'd actually stump for Nebraska, I'm just trying to point out as objectively as I can (by taking off my Husker shades) that other teams that are right there with us have some "better win" cards that they can lay on the table. I love the discussion.

The beautiful thing about all of this is it most likely will play itself out in the next couple of weeks. Syracuse: hast to travel to Boston College and host Clemson. They would need to win both to stay ahead of Nebraska in my mind. UCLA: has to play at USC which will be a de facto elimination game I think. Baylor: hosts Oklahoma and plays at Kansas State to close the season. They won't get in with a 7-11 league mark, but might at 8-10. Texas: at KU and v West Virginia to close the season. See Baylor. I think these seem to be the four teams we are really competing against. Maybe a few others, but that seems what it looks like to me.

@ Arizona. Kentucky (neutral). Would you like to show comparable Nebraska wins?