Do you lay up on 15?

[Norm Peterson]

It's the 69th hole at the Masters. You're 2 shots back. You've never won a major championship in golf; in fact, you've never even been in contention before.  But here you are. On Sunday. At Augusta National.  And you have a choice to make.  The biggest decision you may ever face.

 

You hit an alright tee shot.  You're in the fairway with a decent lie.  But the 15th green is notoriously slick and there's water protecting it in front.

 

Laying up means you put yourself in position for a probable par, possible birdie, and you stay in contention, but you don't gain any ground on the leader.

 

Going for it in two involves risk.  Come up short, even if you reach the green, and there's a chance it rolls back into the drink and you're looking at bogey or worse.  Go long and there's a good chance your come-back shot could wind up wet. And then you're looking to save double bogey.

 

But, if everything goes right and you stick the shot, you have a chance at eagle and a tie for the lead.  On Sunday.  At the Masters.  At the mother effing Masters.

 

So, what do you do?  Do you lay up?  Or do you go for it in two?

[jayschool]

WOO-HOO!!! I'm a professional golfer!!! Third place gets me more money in one weekend than I'll ever make in my entire life!!! Lay it up.

[HuskerFever]

1 minute ago, jayschool said:

WOO-HOO!!! I'm a professional golfer!!! Third place gets me more money in one weekend than I'll ever make in my entire life!!! Lay it up.

 

You beat me to it!

 

Last year's payouts were:

 

1st: $1.98M

2nd: $1.19M

3rd: $0.75M

[Huskerpapa]

There is no question in my mind that not only can I make the shot, I will definitely make the shot.  No question, I go for it, I will succeed and I will win the tournament.  I haven't got to this place in time without that ability.  

[Norm Peterson]

23 minutes ago, jayschool said:

WOO-HOO!!! I'm a professional golfer!!! Third place gets me more money in one weekend than I'll ever make in my entire life!!! Lay it up.

 

Hey. You are in luck. As it happens, you won $1.6 million at The Memorial last year in order to qualify for the Masters field. 

 

In fact, you had 5 top-10 finishes last year including a runner-up at the Northern Trust Open, and you currently sit in roughly the top 50 on the money list. AND you get paid more for the colored thread your sponsors had stitched into your shirt, your golf hat and your golf bag than what the Masters green jacket would pay. (Thank you to the generous people at Mutual of Omaha and Rocket Mortgage.)

 

So money, for you, is NOT an issue.

 

Does that change your vote?

[The Polish Rifle]

Me trying to pin point the Nebrasketball metaphor.

[basketballjones]

Lay-up. You’re not playing anyone else in golf. You’re playing the course. If you focus on others the course will win. Go for birdie and play your best on 16-18. Maybe the others will mess up, but that’s out of your control. 

[hskr4life]

Lay-Up... take the bird... head on to the next hole.  Still three holes to play.  Golf is a game where you don't have to beat others.  You have to let others beat themselves.

[huskerbaseball13]

Its the easiest hole on the course.  I’m going for it and not thinking twice about it. 

[kleitus]

Depends on if you're playing like an accountant or not.

 

Odds are if you lay up and birdie, you'll get 2nd place for sure.  And like was said before people can lose tournaments as well as win them.

 

I guess I've got too much of my Dad in me though... I'm going for it and i'm not thinking twice.  Swing a little harder and take my chances.

 

And when I hole out that b---h and am on sportscenter for the next 50 years with one of the 5 or so greatest shots of all time, i will be smirking the entire time.

[hal9000]

If you can make one heap of all your winnings

    And risk it on one turn of pitch-and-toss,

And lose, and start again at your beginnings

    And never breathe a word about your loss;

...Yours is the Earth and everything that’s in it,   

    And—which is more—you’ll be a Man, my son!

 

Go for it!

[royalfan]

depends on how high I can hit the ball.  I must be able to land it relatively softly on the green so I don't have to barely clear the water to hold the green.  You don't want to be playing from behind that treacherous green typically if memory serves. 

[jayschool]

3 hours ago, Norm Peterson said:

 

Hey. You are in luck. As it happens, you won $1.6 million at The Memorial last year in order to qualify for the Masters field. 

 

In fact, you had 5 top-10 finishes last year including a runner-up at the Northern Trust Open, and you currently sit in roughly the top 50 on the money list. AND you get paid more for the colored thread your sponsors had stitched into your shirt, your golf hat and your golf bag than what the Masters green jacket would pay. (Thank you to the generous people at Mutual of Omaha and Rocket Mortgage.)

 

So money, for you, is NOT an issue.

 

Does that change your vote?

Yeah. I'm going for it. (Plus, I just watched a documentary about Joan Jett, so that changed my mind, too.)

[hhcmatt]

16 hours ago, The Polish Rifle said:

Me trying to pin point the Nebrasketball metaphor.

 

I like to think it's because I've been tweeting out Tin Cup pictures before games during our losing streak

[PimpMario]

Life isn't about money or playing it safe.  You go for it.  Plus if you mess up surely you will make it before running out of balls.  And by finishing high enough you will qualify for next year's event.

 

We could use a Kevin Costner as coach.

[Norm Peterson]

There are probably some statistics somewhere that show how many people in the final 2-3 groups who eagle #15 on Sunday go on to win the Masters. In all my years of watching the Masters, I can only remember one guy in contention -- Chip Beck -- lay up on 15. And the announcers gave him hell for it.

 

One of the most famous shots in the history of golf (if not THE most famous shot) occurred in 1935 on #15 at Augusta national. On Sunday.

 

Gene Sarazen was playing #14, 2 shots back of Craig Wood, when he heard the crowd roar on 18 as Wood rolled in a birdie to go up 3.

 

On #15, Sarazen could have layed up and played for runner-up, and conceded the Green Jacket to Wood.

 

Instead, for his second shot, he striped a 4-wood 235 yards, carried the water hazard, landed on the green and rolled it in for double-eagle 2.

 

He walked onto the 15th tee 3 shots back; he walked off the 15th green in a tie for the lead.

 

Sarazen parred out, sending the 1935 Masters into a playoff, which he then won.

 

And nobody remembers Craig Wood.

 

Edited: Hat tip to HB for correcting me on Chip Beck.

Edited February 15, 2019 by Norm Peterson

[Norm Peterson]

Knowing the story I mentioned above about Sarazen's "shot heard 'round the world" let me ask ALL of you this:

 

If Sarazen's shot falls short and he saves par rather than getting a possible birdie, does that make it the wrong decision?

 

Do you judge the decision by the outcome?  Or do you judge the decision by assessing the situation and the odds at the time you make it?

 

He's 3 shots back.  He could go the safe route, lay up, and play for 2nd. Or he could go for glory and take his chances.

 

Was Tom Osborne right to go for 2 against Miami in the '84 Orange Bowl?  Or should he have kicked the extra-point and backed his way into a National Championship?

[HB]

18 minutes ago, Norm Peterson said:

There are probably some statistics somewhere that show how many people in the final 2-3 groups who eagle #15 on Sunday go on to win the Masters. In all my years of watching the Masters, I can only remember one guy in contention -- Lauren Roberts -- lay up on 15. And the announcers gave him hell for it.

 

One of the most famous shots in the history of golf (if not THE most famous shot) occurred in 1935 on #15 at Augusta national. On Sunday.

 

Gene Sarazen was playing #14, 2 shots back of Craig Wood, when he heard the crowd roar on 18 as Wood rolled in a birdie to go up 3.

 

On #15, Sarazen could have layed up and played for runner-up and conceded the Green Jacket to Wood.

 

Instead, for his second shot, he striped a "spoon" (like a modern 4-wood) 235 yards, carried the water hazard, landed on the green and rolled it in for double-eagle 2.

 

He walked onto the 15th tee 3 shots back; he walked off the 15th green in a tie for the lead.

 

Sarazen parred out sending the 1935 Masters into a playoff, which he then won.

 

And nobody remembers Craig Wood.

 

Chip Beck laid up

[Norm Peterson]

2 minutes ago, HB said:

 

Chip Beck laid up

 

Dang. You're right. Why did I think Lauren Roberts?  Maybe because that was like 30 years ago.

 

Glad I have my fact-checkers on board. I should have run it by you first.  

[atskooc]

What are the weather conditions? Wind? Rain?

 

How far back is the next competitor?

 

How many are within three of the lead?

 

How far do I have to the green?  Am I looking at a six iron, or a five wood?

 

What group am I in? Is the leader ahead of me? Behind me?

 

Where am I in the FedEx Cup standings?

 

How long have I been on tour?

 

Who is leading? If it's Phil, there's a pretty good chance he'll blow up and leave me an opening, regardless of what I do here. If it's Spieth, he might do the same, considering what course we're playing.

 

How have my second shots on this hole gone the first three rounds?

 

Where's the pin? Back right? Front left?

 

How's my stance?  It's a pretty slanted fairway.

 

How well am I putting for the tournament? The season?

Edited February 15, 2019 by atskooc

[atskooc]

36 minutes ago, Norm Peterson said:

 

And nobody remembers Craig Wood.

I would venture to guess that if I were to walk around town and ask at random 25 people who Gene Sarazan and Craig Wood are, they would be recognized at approximately the same rate.

 

But I get what you're saying.

[HB]

30 minutes ago, Norm Peterson said:

 

Dang. You're right. Why did I think Lauren Roberts?  Maybe because that was like 30 years ago.

 

Glad I have my fact-checkers on board. I should have run it by you first.  

 

I have a great capacity to remember useless information which makes me no money.

[Norm Peterson]

28 minutes ago, HB said:

I have a great capacity to remember useless information which makes me no money.

 

Same. Except you got me on that one.

[cipsucks]

1 hour ago, Norm Peterson said:

 

Was Tom Osborne right to go for 2 against Miami in the '84 Orange Bowl?  Or should he have kicked the extra-point and backed his way into a National Championship?

 

Tom should have gone for two the previous touchdown.  Make it, then the last TD gives you the national championship (provided they stop Miami on their last drive.)  Don't make it, then go for 2 after the final touchdown, get the tie and no one gives you crap.

[royalfan]

22 minutes ago, cipsucks said:

 

Tom should have gone for two the previous touchdown.  Make it, then the last TD gives you the national championship (provided they stop Miami on their last drive.)  Don't make it, then go for 2 after the final touchdown, get the tie and no one gives you crap.

 

That is absolutely the correct answer!!