Road to 20

[throwback]

May catch a big break Friday if Reaves can't play. 

[Chuck Taylor]

1 hour ago, throwback said:

May catch a big break Friday if Reaves can't play. 

Academic issue, rather than an injury, so it's OK to cheer the news.

[Huskerpapa]

I am going to bet that he has his academic issues cleared up by Friday  I am also betting that it was a paper that was due or something like that. 

[hhcmatt]

9 minutes ago, huskercwg said:

I am also betting that it was a paper that was due or something like that. 

 

On the second day of classes?

[49r]

I'm pretty shocked at the lack of discussion over on the PSU hoops message board. https://forum.pennstatehoops.com/c/penn-state-basketball

 

For what is clearly the best team of the Chambers era and the fact that they're still right in the thick of the hunt for a Dance card, one would think they'd have more chatter.  So odd.

 

Every time I visit an opponents message board I come back here with a greater appreciation for what we have!

[uneblinstu]

When I look at PSU and NU, I see two really similar teams, except for two things. Adjusted defensive efficiency and 3 pt. defense. NU is best in conference play in both of those categories. Everywhere else, NU and PSU are within a couple spots of each other. I'm expecting a close game on Friday.

[Huskerpapa]

2 hours ago, hhcdimes said:

 

On the second day of classes?

Don't know what system Penn State works from, but it could have been a paper from the previous semester that created an "incomplete" and in order to finalize the course and become eligible, the paper needed to be submitted. 

[HuskerFever]

14 minutes ago, huskercwg said:

Don't know what system Penn State works from, but it could have been a paper from the previous semester that created an "incomplete" and in order to finalize the course and become eligible, the paper needed to be submitted. 

 

Don't you worry. If that's the case, that TA will write and turn in that paper for him in time for the game this Friday.

[49r]

You can almost taste the Grit™ (and maybe a little spittle too) already

 

[uneblinstu]

PSU essentially has a 7 man rotation. It'll be interesting to see what they do if Reaves can't go.

[hhcmatt]

1 hour ago, uneblinstu said:

PSU essentially has a 7 man rotation. It'll be interesting to see what they do if Reaves can't go.

 

Against Indiana they ran a 6 man rotation

[Donkey]

20+ wins and 

 

1.  No bad losses, eg Illinois, Indiana, Iowa, Rutgers. The losses to St Johns and UCF are looking better. 

 

2. No home losses, eg Illinois, Michigan, Iowa, Rutgers, Maryland, Indiana, Penn State. 

 

With No. 1 & 2 equals 8 wins for 20 total. 

 

3. Split the remaining road games, tOSU, Minn, PSU, and Wisconsin, equals 22 wins. 

 

Do not not focus on signature wins as none of the remaining games are really huge. The schedule is solid but not spectacular. Just win baby and limit losses. 

 

I am most concerned with Michigan and tOSU. Michigan just seems to have our number. They were the only team to beat us at home in 2014. Must have win this year. 

[Norm Peterson]

1 hour ago, Donkey said:

The losses to St Johns and UCF are looking better. 

 

Maybe the UCF loss, but not the St. John's loss.  That might be a baaaad loss for us by the end of the year.  They've now lost 5 in a row, most recently to G'town at home.  They lost to DePaul at home by 17 the game before that.  And they might not find 5 more wins the rest of the season.

 

Their next game, they host #1 Villanova. Then they travel to #10 Xavier. Then it's away to G'town, home to face #25 Creighton, @ Butler, then #10 Xavier at home, #7 Duke at home, and then back on the road to face #1 Villanova.  That's an 8-game stretch of brutality and it follows on the heals of a 5-game losing streak.

 

I feel for them.  It really hurts them that they lost one of their best players to injury shortly after they played us.  But the computers don't know that.  The computers only know that we got blown out by a team that got blown out by DePaul.

[khoock]

Yeah St. Johns is a bad loss. Thats a bottom 3 team in the Big East.

[Donkey]

St Johns RPI is 57 and KenPom is 76. That is an acceptable early season road loss. The upcoming brutal schedule will not cause St Johns rankings to drop too much. As long as they stay within the top 100, the committee won’t harshly punish us. 

 

My previsous analysis was strictly off of KenPom. Looking at RPI, the only acceptable losses on our upcoming schedule are Maryland, Michigan, and tOSU. However, I think only tOSU would qualify as a signature win. RPI does not like the BIG this year. Going off RPI only, we look incredibly average. I would say more than 4 losses would leave us in the NIT at best. 3-4 losses would keep us on the bubble. 3 losses plus a deep BIG tourney run would have us in. 0-2 losses and we should be in. 

[nustudent]

3 hours ago, Donkey said:

St Johns RPI is 57 and KenPom is 76. That is an acceptable early season road loss. The upcoming brutal schedule will not cause St Johns rankings to drop too much. As long as they stay within the top 100, the committee won’t harshly punish us. 

 

My previsous analysis was strictly off of KenPom. Looking at RPI, the only acceptable losses on our upcoming schedule are Maryland, Michigan, and tOSU. However, I think only tOSU would qualify as a signature win. RPI does not like the BIG this year. Going off RPI only, we look incredibly average. I would say more than 4 losses would leave us in the NIT at best. 3-4 losses would keep us on the bubble. 3 losses plus a deep BIG tourney run would have us in. 0-2 losses and we should be in. 

If they lose like they will be expected too, they won't stay in the top 100

[hskr4life]

3 hours ago, Donkey said:

St Johns RPI is 57 and KenPom is 76. That is an acceptable early season road loss. The upcoming brutal schedule will not cause St Johns rankings to drop too much. As long as they stay within the top 100, the committee won’t harshly punish us. 

 

My previsous analysis was strictly off of KenPom. Looking at RPI, the only acceptable losses on our upcoming schedule are Maryland, Michigan, and tOSU. However, I think only tOSU would qualify as a signature win. RPI does not like the BIG this year. Going off RPI only, we look incredibly average. I would say more than 4 losses would leave us in the NIT at best. 3-4 losses would keep us on the bubble. 3 losses plus a deep BIG tourney run would have us in. 0-2 losses and we should be in. 

 

 

Wait, wait, wait,.  Your trying to tell me a Big 10 team who goes 15-3 in conference would need a deep tourney run?  And if we go 13-5 we’re out?

[49r]

Seems like a good enough time to put this here:

 

Final Record	Expected RPI	Probability
23-8	37.0	0.04%
22-9	48.3	0.59%
21-10	59.7	2.10%
20-11	71.8	6.11%
19-12	85.8	13.47%
18-13	103.2	20.40%
17-14	122.3	23.26%
16-15	142.4	18.46%
15-16	161.7	10.68%
14-17	179.0	4.05%
13-18	193.6	0.77%
12-19	208.7	0.06%

[OmahaHusker]

 

As of right now...if we lost to Michigan, @Ohio State, and Maryland...we're essentially a really good Missouri Valley team. I have a small spot in my heart for Drake basketball so I looked at their remaining schedule compared to ours. If you take out the Michigan, OSU, and Maryland games from our schedule...I'd argue they currently have a more competitive schedule than us. How do you think that looks to the committee? Even if we went 13-5

Edited January 11, 2018 by OmahaHusker

[hskr4life]

5 minutes ago, OmahaHusker said:

 

As of right now...if we lost to Michigan, @Ohio State, and Maryland...we're essentially a really good Missouri Valley team. I have a small spot in my heart for Drake basketball so I looked at their remaining schedule compared to ours. If you take out the Michigan, OSU, and Maryland games from our schedule...I'd argue they currently have a more competitive schedule than us. How do you think that looks to the committee? Even if we went 13-5

 

Reaching just a little bit.  While our schedule isn’t a mammoth like in the past, it’s certainly not Mo Valley level.  I don’t care what the numbers say... the Big 10 is tougher to play in night in and night out.  You saw what happened to Valpo when they played their few games against the Big 10.

 

I can guarantee you that if there was such a thing as a Big 10/Mov Valley challenge, it wouldn’t look good for the Mo Valley.

 

But it’s nice to see Drake doing so well in conference!  Isn’t Fro there?

[OmahaHusker]

12 minutes ago, hskr4life said:

 

Reaching just a little bit.  While our schedule isn’t a mammoth like in the past, it’s certainly not Mo Valley level.  I don’t care what the numbers say... the Big 10 is tougher to play in night in and night out.  You saw what happened to Valpo when they played their few games against the Big 10.

 

I can guarantee you that if there was such a thing as a Big 10/Mov Valley challenge, it wouldn’t look good for the Mo Valley.

 

But it’s nice to see Drake doing so well in conference!  Isn’t Fro there?

 

Ya I agree it's a stretch. Season is still somewhat young. But you can't argue that that's not tough to look at side by side as of today. And I know I didn't expect this from them either haha. Ya he is. And funny you should bring up Valpo because they rolled Drake last night. Bakari Evelyn had 9 for them.

[hskr4life]

1 minute ago, OmahaHusker said:

 

Ya I agree it's a stretch. Season is still somewhat young. But you can't argue that that's not tough to look at side by side as of today. And I know I didn't expect this from them either haha. Ya he is. And funny you should bring up Valpo because they rolled Drake last night. Bakari Evelyn had 9 for them.

 

Lookig at the MO Val standings reminds me a little of the Big 10 in that just about everyone is beating up on everyone to the point where more than half the league is within a game of each other.

[Cazzie22]

Have to be impressed with Rutgers nearly beating a MSU in East Lansing.   NU has a long, difficult road, get ready for a tenacious Penn St.

[uneblinstu]

If they treat it with the same urgency they did vs. Minnesota, Creighton or Kansas, they'll be fine.

[hskr4life]

16 minutes ago, uneblinstu said:

If they treat it with the same urgency they did vs. Minnesota, Creighton or Kansas, they'll be fine.

 

Yep.  We're going to be just as or more athletic than most every team we play.  We can match up with every team we play.  It will all come down to effort and urgency.  Can't take anyone for granted.  We should not fall into the "taking someone for granted" category yet no matter if the conference was up or down.  We haven't earned that and we were the ones getting taken for granted most years in the past.  We need to play like we have something to prove.  Why?  We do have something to prove, and we have not proven it yet.