uneblinstu's Post Game Chatter: Vol 9, Ed 24 - Wisconsin

[Norm Peterson]

3 minutes ago, LK1 said:

 

You beat me to my entire post.  haha.  

 

Except I used more words, so ...

[49r]

In order for this team to qualify for the NIT, we now must win out the regular season.

 

Which is more challenging?  Getting hot for a 6 game stretch at the end of the season to finish above .500?  Or finding a way to win 4 (or more likely at this point, 5) games in 4 (or 5) days to win the BTT?

 

Here are the current Pomeroy odds for regular season games:

 

Tue Feb 14		84	Penn St.	W, 71-68	70	62%	Home		×
Sat Feb 18		60	Ohio St.	L, 73-67	67	28%	Away		×
Thu Feb 23		58	Michigan St.	L, 71-64	66	26%	Away		×
Sun Feb 26		67	Illinois	W, 67-66	66	57%	Home		×
Thu Mar 2		38	Minnesota	L, 72-63	68	19%	Away		×
Sun Mar 5		30	Michigan	L, 69-66	61	42%	Home		×

 

RPI forecast hasn't updated yet, but it's pretty long odds to get to over .500 in regular season play:

 

Final Record	Expected RPI	Probability
16-13	36.0	0.01%
15-14	53.8	0.34%
14-15	68.4	2.76%
13-16	82.5	11.51%
12-17	97.3	27.16%
11-18	111.8	33.15%
10-19	127.0	20.10%
9-20	143.1	4.96%

 

About 0.34% 

[Norm Peterson]

I think we'll win out at home.  I think we could win 2 of 3 on the road.

 

Our chances of rolling undefeated through the Big Ten tourney are probably better than winning on the road at Michigan State and  Minnesota and not dropping any other games along the way.

 

So, Big Ten Tourney Champs, 2017.

 

You heard it here first.

[49r]

Let me just drop this in here...the SOS top 20:

 

 

Strength of Schedule						NCSOS
Rank	Team	Conf	W-L	AdjEM	AdjO		AdjD		AdjT		Luck		AdjEM		OppO		OppD		AdjEM
21	Oklahoma St.	B12	15-9	+21.63	123.7	2	102.0	123	70.8	58	-.063	301	+12.83	1	110.7	7	97.8	1	+2.63	93
77	Oklahoma	B12	8-15	+9.22	106.3	138	97.1	54	70.4	68	-.117	349	+12.27	2	110.7	6	98.4	2	+2.09	108
94	Nebraska	B10	10-14	+7.36	106.2	140	98.8	67	67.9	197	-.008	207	+11.55	3	111.4	1	99.8	12	+7.02	26
37	Tennessee	SEC	14-10	+15.80	111.5	55	95.7	38	70.1	79	-.048	284	+11.36	4	110.0	14	98.6	3	+7.80	19
8	Baylor	B12	21-3	+26.26	115.6	29	89.3	6	63.9	333	+.060	55	+11.26	5	110.7	4	99.5	10	+2.33	104
43	Clemson	ACC	13-10	+15.27	115.8	28	100.5	93	67.1	238	-.016	225	+10.94	6	109.9	17	98.9	6	+2.82	86
9	Kansas	B12	21-3	+26.10	121.6	5	95.5	36	69.7	95	+.064	48	+10.75	7	109.9	16	99.2	7	+3.85	66
26	Iowa St.	B12	14-9	+19.38	113.9	40	94.6	26	68.4	168	-.081	328	+10.75	8	110.7	5	100.0	16	-0.68	189
2	Virginia	ACC	18-5	+31.18	118.6	14	87.5	3	59.4	350	-.038	267	+10.47	9	109.3	25	98.9	5	+2.89	84
6	Florida	SEC	19-5	+28.16	117.2	20	89.0	5	68.6	152	-.042	273	+10.38	10	109.7	19	99.3	8	+9.02	10
3	Louisville	ACC	19-5	+29.23	115.5	32	86.3	2	68.3	170	-.011	215	+10.35	11	110.6	9	100.3	18	+4.30	58
70	Texas	B12	10-14	+9.77	103.1	194	93.3	19	68.6	156	-.088	334	+10.29	12	110.8	2	100.5	23	+1.68	124
33	Wake Forest	ACC	14-10	+16.47	119.5	12	103.0	147	70.1	81	-.043	274	+10.28	13	110.1	13	99.9	13	+4.41	56
23	Butler	BE	19-5	+20.82	116.3	24	95.4	34	65.5	294	+.034	109	+10.27	14	110.6	8	100.4	20	+5.02	44
52	Georgia	SEC	13-11	+13.40	108.1	109	94.7	27	67.7	205	-.053	290	+10.17	15	108.8	29	98.7	4	+4.43	55
51	Vanderbilt	SEC	12-12	+13.62	114.4	38	100.7	96	65.3	298	-.072	313	+10.17	16	109.6	22	99.4	9	+6.74	28
10	North Carolina	ACC	21-5	+25.34	121.5	6	96.2	46	71.4	43	+.019	143	+9.88	17	110.8	3	100.9	33	+4.97	47
56	Georgetown	BE	13-12	+12.47	110.0	78	97.5	58	69.4	110	-.059	297	+9.70	18	110.4	11	100.7	28	+3.23	77
58	Michigan St.	B10	14-10	+12.45	109.2	88	96.8	52	66.7	243	+.012	158	+9.69	19	109.6	20	99.9	15	+4.04	63
68	Pittsburgh	ACC	13-11	+9.98	115.0	36	105.0	184	65.6	292	+.060	56	+9.53	20	110.5	10	100.9	36	+1.14	134

[Nighthawk]

26 minutes ago, LK1 said:

I've seen similar things happen:

 

Don't get me wrong...I  think we belong in the Big 10.  I don't think we belonged in the big 12...however I  miss the Big 8 days...the pre-state of Texas days. There was just something special about  these games win or lose that I just don't feel about the Big 10 games. 

Edited February 10, 2017 by Nighthawk
to not sound like a valley girl. haha! like totally.

[hhcmatt]

News and notes

 

Nebraska Postgame Notes
*-Nebraska falls to 2-4 against ranked teams and sees its two-game win streak snapped against ranked foes.
*-Nebraska falls to 1-1 in overtime games this year, as it won a double OT game vs. Iowa on Jan. 5
*-Three of Nebraska’s eight Big Ten losses are by one point
*-Tai Webster scored 19 points, the 25th-consecutive game the senior has scored in double figures, dating back to last season. 
*-Ed Morrow Jr. made his first appearance for Nebraska since Jan. 8, as he missed the last seven games with a foot injury. Morrow finished with a game-high 13 rebounds, his sixth double-figure rebounding effort of the season
*-Jordy Tshimanga gathered 10 rebounds, the first time the freshman has grabbed double-digit boards.
*-Jordy Tshimanga has now grabbed eight or more rebounds in three straight games and four times this season.
*-Tonight marked the first time since the 2015 Big Ten Tournament that NU had two players grab at least 10 rebounds (Morrow 13; Tshimanga, 10)
*-Michael Jacobson’s 3-pointer with 0.3 seconds left in regulation was his fourth of the year and first since Dec. 3. He had not taken a 3-point attempt in 2017 before that 3-point attempt
*-Nebraska finished with a season-high 50 rebounds, its highest total since grabbing 52 against Arkansas Pine-Bluff on Nov. 24, 2015
*-Nebraska’s 22 turnovers was a season-high and only the second time NU had committed 20+ turnovers this season.
*-Isaiah Roby tied his career high with eight rebounds (also vs. Ohio State)
*-The 25 first-half points allowed by the Huskers is their third-lowest total of the season (16, Mary; 23, Virginia Tech).
Nebraska Coach Tim Miles
Opening Statement: “I thought it was a gritty effort by our team. I never questioned their result and their heart. It seems like we just do enough to lose. There are a lot of different factors that go into that tonight. Not just a play here or a play there, but it’s a big picture thing we can improve on. Wisconsin is an excellent team. They’re very strong inside. They make it very hard to score at the rim. I think you saw that tonight. Even though we were in there they still did a good job against us. We have to credit them. That’s why we see the veteran guys that went through battles that didn’t get rattled. They hit a pick and pot with Nigel, I don’t know when the last time he made one was. I mean he’s got the guts to take that shot, Michael’s got the guts to take a big shot and we were just a play short.”
On how the bench played: “Yeah I do. I thought they did a lot of things right. I though Ed was a warrior. Tai played his butt off. Glynn, you can tell he isn’t at 100%, we went to him at the end of regulation and he just didn’t have his burst but he made some smart plays and took what the defensive gave him and gave us some good minutes. I would say (Isaiah) Roby was terrific, I thought he showed that promise that we saw on the recruiting. He played so hard and really made a difference in the game. We needed everybody, and those bench guys did a great job.”
On if the loss will sink their team: “This will not sink us.”  
On the atmosphere: “I thought it was great. it was really good. Ssometimes an ugly game where it is a defensive battle it’s hard to get into it. But they were up. They knew big possessions. We started off really slow, but we never really let Wisconsin get away from us. The crowd really helped in that too. When you get tired and the fans start cheering you on, you kind of pick up your step a bit. This is such a tremendous environment for both teams, I know our opponents love playing here. I can guess they do. Every time I walk in I still think, alright we are going to lock up the vault. We have had two really tough ones here with Ohio State and Wisconsin, but we are going to keep doing what we do and we will play our butts off and we hope our crowd keeps coming out and supporting us because we need it against Penn State.”
On Wisconsin: “I think what people don’t realize about Wisconsin is just how strong their front line is. For us to get 20 offensive rebounds isn’t by accident. I think you have to credit their interior defensive. You saw the quick hands of Ethan Happ. I thought that was a big difference, we turned it over way too much obviously. They’re 7th in the nation, you’re a little jumpy and you’re going to make some mistakes but 22 turn overs is not ok when your goal is 12 or less.”
On health: “I was thankful that we had all our players except Anton (Gill). I look forward to keeping them healthy.”
 
Senior Guard Tai Webster
On NU’s final possession
“We just wanted to get a rescreen and get them back in another screen just to see where the defense was obviously I tripped over so I didn’t do a good job of executing.  I feel like I let us down with that so I kind of forced the ball when I got it back it wasn’t a very good shot. It was a good opportunity to make a play, but I just got tripped over. I just made a mistake.”
On Nebraska‘s second-half performance
“Patience on offense, we knew weren’t just going to bring it back. We just have to grind it out and focus on getting those stops. Wisconsin brings a different style that we don’t really see much of. They’re in the position they are for a reason. They play well, make big plays and they know how to win down the stretch. We showed a lot of grit, especially to the young guys. Just sticking with the positives.”
Sophomore Forward Ed Morrow Jr. 
On his performance after missing seven games with a foot injury
“I felt like I could’ve been more productive. I was a little timid coming out in the game being that it was my first game coming back. I was just excited to be out there. There were some plays I made I wish I could take back, but at the end of the day you have to live through them and keep playing and other than that, I’m doing pretty fine.”
On his foot 
“I actually feel better than I expected so that’s a good thing.”
On his conditioning 
“I was capable of being involved in the last two days of practice just to get a little of my touch back, finishing around the rim, catching the ball. I made some shots and stuff like that, just getting back in sync with my team.”
Wisconsin Coach Greg Gard 
Opening statement: I thought the gut check, again. They answered the call when they had to.  We got some contributions off the bench that helped us just buy some minutes, specifically in the first half when we were battling some foul trouble.  We’ve gotta be better.  As Nigel [Hayes] alluded to, we’ve got to be able to finish around the paint a little bit better, take care of the ball better and keep them off the glass.  This group will learn and grow, and we’ve been tested in a multitude of ways.  Proud of how they’ve responded from a fortitude standpoint, but we’ve gotta continue to mature and grow in other areas.

On whether or not there were thoughts of fouling after Michael Jacobsen’s three pointer: “No, not at that point.  We were gonna try and make sure the ball was out (of the hands of), specifically Watson, Webster, and McVeigh were the three guys we were really keyed in on. But no, we weren’t going to foul in that situation, give them that point.  Knowing they were going to take the three, we don’t want to end up fouling a three-point shooter.  He got a little too much space. We really don’t want anybody to get a three off, and I thought as we made the last switch we were back too far on Jacobson.  We didn’t attack the ball back again once the switch took place.  We had the ball covered, but when they flipped it back to him we were too much in the pocket.

On his confidence in Nigel Hayes shooting three pointers: As long as he has confidence.  I watched him in practice when we do our drills, and he’ll drill 5, 6, 7, 8 in a row.  So he’s been very wise from the standpoint that he’s stayed for the most part true to who he is, what he is.  If he has to take a timely one, an important one, obviously he was able to do that and deliver.  He’s 6-for-9 (from the field)  and 7 of 11 from the free throw line, that’s the efficiency we need out of him.  And if the threes come from that, or as a result of matchups that we can take advantage of like we did there at the end, that’s a bonus. 

On playing Nebraska at home and the toll it might take: We just gotta get better.  We know we’re marked.  This is a tough place to play.  We brought a team in here three years ago that ended up going to a Final Four and got beat.  Tim does a good job, fans here are into it. Nebraska’s as healthy as they were tonight, getting everybody back, they have more weapons and options.  Purdue was in here a week ago, and we saw how that turned out.  It’s a tough place to play because it’s a great environment and it’s a team that plays really well here.  Credit goes to them, too. It’s not just all us and our undoing at times, but we don’t help ourselves in a lot of situations.

 

[49r]

8 minutes ago, Nighthawk said:

Don't get me wrong...I  think we belong in the Big 10.  I don't think we belonged in the big 12...however I  miss the Big 8 days...the pre-state of Texas days. There was just something special about  these games win or lose that I just don't feel about the Big 10 games. 

 

I dunno, every year I personally feel a little more affinity for the B1G, it's starting to approach Big 8 levels in my mind.  Give it some time, it may take 20 years for us to really feel "at home" here, but I think we get there.  It's a great fit.

 

Big 8

.

B1G

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Salmonella poisoning

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Big XII

 

 

It's kinda where I'm at right now anyway.

[hhcmatt]

40 minutes ago, Blindcheck said:

Thoughts...do you play Morrow enough to keep him fresh...Watson...maybe he sits a game or two to get 100%.

 

If you know the only way to the tourney is winning the conference tourney, do you change the way you manage your roster and your gameplanning over the next couple of weeks?

 

Figuring out how to play Tai 30 minutes would help.

[NUtball]

1 hour ago, Art Vandalay said:

 

This was killing me Roby basically fouled out doing what Happ does every possession. I counted at least 4 times he should have gotten a foul called at one point and he had zero. It is criminal what he gets away with just because of reputation.

 

I hate 90% of basketball officials 

 

+10,000.  Happ fouls with impunity.

[Nighthawk]

27 minutes ago, 49r said:

 

I dunno, every year I personally feel a little more affinity for the B1G, it's starting to approach Big 8 levels in my mind.  Give it some time, it may take 20 years for us to really feel "at home" here, but I think we get there.  It's a great fit.

 

Big 8

.

B1G

.

.

.

.

.

.

.

.

Salmonella poisoning

.

.

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Big XII

 

 

It's kinda where I'm at right now anyway.

You are probably right.  I guess for me it's just the fact that the Big 8 was right out our back door.  The Big 10 is right in our country.  There's also all the memories I have as a little kid getting together with another family we know and hopping in the van and driving down to KC for the Big 8 tournament.  How much fun Kemper was. I just don't have the memories with the big 10. 

[49r]

9 minutes ago, Nighthawk said:

You are probably right.  I guess for me it's just the fact that the Big 8 was right out our back door.  The Big 10 is right in our country.  There's also all the memories I have as a little kid getting together with another family we know and hopping in the van and driving down to KC for the Big 8 tournament.  How much fun Kemper was. I just don't have the memories with the big 10. 

 

Yes, KC during conference tourney time (even now) is a special special place.  But to me that's a little separate from the Big 8 B1G deal.

 

FWIW, I usually go down to P&L during the Big XII tourney and there are still plenty of Mizzou and Nebraska fans hanging out.  It's still fun even if we aren't involved.

 

I also still think there should be an event in KC every year featuring MU, NU and a couple of old Big 8 teams at Sprint Center.  Like, ISU and KU for example.  That could get pretty wild.

[brfrad]

Watching that game, I feel my hatred for Missouri come back more and more.  Thames was a punk.  My hatred for Norm, brings me to my teenager days.

[Fullbacksympathy]

The real cultural difference from the BIg 8/XII was the southern influence.  There was way more of a culture clash between Nebraska, KU, ISU, KState, and Colorado vs. OK, OKSt, Texas, TAMU, TTech, Missouri, Baylor... the southern element added a sort of rawness to it that midwesterners don't wear on their sleeves as much.  We were the classy school.  The problem with the B1G is that we fit in a little too much from a cultural standpoint to really clash with anyone.  Our culture is looked down up by B1G bluebloods.  I don't hate any B1G teams.  I hated Missouri, Colorado, and Texas.  

 

From a football standpoint, I'll always like B1G XII better because of the hatred and mixed styles of play, but the B1G is a way better basketball experience, in my opinion.  I absolutely love the basketball in this conference.  I feel like B1G football is consistently overrated across the board and basketball is consistently underrated across the board.  

[PimpMario]

No fanbase should have to endure the cruel, gut punch, kick in the nuts, slap in the face, terrible shot going in, freethrowless, freethrow miss, injury plagued, one possession, last second shot games that we have to go through.  Just brutal!  

But that's Nebrasketball's identity.

[swmckewon]

1 hour ago, 49r said:

Let me just drop this in here...the SOS top 20:

 

 

Strength of Schedule						NCSOS
Rank	Team	Conf	W-L	AdjEM	AdjO		AdjD		AdjT		Luck		AdjEM		OppO		OppD		AdjEM
21	Oklahoma St.	B12	15-9	+21.63	123.7	2	102.0	123	70.8	58	-.063	301	+12.83	1	110.7	7	97.8	1	+2.63	93
77	Oklahoma	B12	8-15	+9.22	106.3	138	97.1	54	70.4	68	-.117	349	+12.27	2	110.7	6	98.4	2	+2.09	108
94	Nebraska	B10	10-14	+7.36	106.2	140	98.8	67	67.9	197	-.008	207	+11.55	3	111.4	1	99.8	12	+7.02	26
37	Tennessee	SEC	14-10	+15.80	111.5	55	95.7	38	70.1	79	-.048	284	+11.36	4	110.0	14	98.6	3	+7.80	19
8	Baylor	B12	21-3	+26.26	115.6	29	89.3	6	63.9	333	+.060	55	+11.26	5	110.7	4	99.5	10	+2.33	104
43	Clemson	ACC	13-10	+15.27	115.8	28	100.5	93	67.1	238	-.016	225	+10.94	6	109.9	17	98.9	6	+2.82	86
9	Kansas	B12	21-3	+26.10	121.6	5	95.5	36	69.7	95	+.064	48	+10.75	7	109.9	16	99.2	7	+3.85	66
26	Iowa St.	B12	14-9	+19.38	113.9	40	94.6	26	68.4	168	-.081	328	+10.75	8	110.7	5	100.0	16	-0.68	189
2	Virginia	ACC	18-5	+31.18	118.6	14	87.5	3	59.4	350	-.038	267	+10.47	9	109.3	25	98.9	5	+2.89	84
6	Florida	SEC	19-5	+28.16	117.2	20	89.0	5	68.6	152	-.042	273	+10.38	10	109.7	19	99.3	8	+9.02	10
3	Louisville	ACC	19-5	+29.23	115.5	32	86.3	2	68.3	170	-.011	215	+10.35	11	110.6	9	100.3	18	+4.30	58
70	Texas	B12	10-14	+9.77	103.1	194	93.3	19	68.6	156	-.088	334	+10.29	12	110.8	2	100.5	23	+1.68	124
33	Wake Forest	ACC	14-10	+16.47	119.5	12	103.0	147	70.1	81	-.043	274	+10.28	13	110.1	13	99.9	13	+4.41	56
23	Butler	BE	19-5	+20.82	116.3	24	95.4	34	65.5	294	+.034	109	+10.27	14	110.6	8	100.4	20	+5.02	44
52	Georgia	SEC	13-11	+13.40	108.1	109	94.7	27	67.7	205	-.053	290	+10.17	15	108.8	29	98.7	4	+4.43	55
51	Vanderbilt	SEC	12-12	+13.62	114.4	38	100.7	96	65.3	298	-.072	313	+10.17	16	109.6	22	99.4	9	+6.74	28
10	North Carolina	ACC	21-5	+25.34	121.5	6	96.2	46	71.4	43	+.019	143	+9.88	17	110.8	3	100.9	33	+4.97	47
56	Georgetown	BE	13-12	+12.47	110.0	78	97.5	58	69.4	110	-.059	297	+9.70	18	110.4	11	100.7	28	+3.23	77
58	Michigan St.	B10	14-10	+12.45	109.2	88	96.8	52	66.7	243	+.012	158	+9.69	19	109.6	20	99.9	15	+4.04	63
68	Pittsburgh	ACC	13-11	+9.98	115.0	36	105.0	184	65.6	292	+.060	56	+9.53	20	110.5	10	100.9	36	+1.14	134

 

Not sure that's a big badge of honor. It's going to end up keeping Nebraska out of a NIT that it is good enough to play in and make a run in. 14-18 = no postseason. 

 

 

 

 

[Nighthawk]

34 minutes ago, 49r said:

 

Yes, KC during conference tourney time (even now) is a special special place.  But to me that's a little separate from the Big 8 B1G deal.

 

FWIW, I usually go down to P&L during the Big XII tourney and there are still plenty of Mizzou and Nebraska fans hanging out.  It's still fun even if we aren't involved.

 

I also still think there should be an event in KC every year featuring MU, NU and a couple of old Big 8 teams at Sprint Center.  Like, ISU and KU for example.  That could get pretty wild.

With all the tournaments they have in the non conference season that would be cool...if they could have a Big 8 tournament...even if it's just a one time thing.  They probably couldn't call it that as I'm guessing the Big 12 still owns the rights to the name...but get back all the big 8 schools for one tournament weekend....yeah even Missouri and Colorado. 

[49r]

 
Not sure that's a big badge of honor. It's going to end up keeping Nebraska out of a NIT that it is good enough to play in and make a run in. 14-18 = no postseason. 
 
 
 
 

It's not meant to be presented as such, it's only an attempt to add perspective to the overall discussion.


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

[swmckewon]

13 minutes ago, 49r said:

It's not meant to be presented as such, it's only an attempt to add perspective to the overall discussion.


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

As was my post.

[formerlybis]

14 hours ago, hhcdimes said:

 

Please don't take my presence here as an effort to troll - I am an aficionado of looking for key stats, especially in tight games. The stat combo here that stands out to me is that Nebraska had 20 offensive rebounds, but only 7 second chance points.

[uneblinstu]

 

8 minutes ago, formerlybis said:

Please don't take my presence here as an effort to troll - I am an aficionado of looking for key stats, especially in tight games. The stat combo here that stands out to me is that Nebraska had 20 offensive rebounds, but only 7 second chance points.

Miles pointed that out in his post game, too.

[hhcmatt]

29 minutes ago, uneblinstu said:

 

Miles pointed that out in his post game, too.

 

Davison pointed out that from the FT line

 

Wisc: 16-24

Nebr: 15-24

 

We lose the FT battle and game by 1

[uneblinstu]

18 minutes ago, hhcdimes said:

 

Davison pointed out that from the FT line

 

Wisc: 16-24

Nebr: 15-24

 

We lose the FT battle and game by 1

Well, in a game that went to overtime and you lose by 1, it's the little things. The rushed shot early in the shot clock. The travel that should have been called that wasn't that ends in a made 3. The one time you didn't secure the rebound. The missed layup. It all adds up and in tight games, you could pick on any one of them..

[Huskerpapa]

Ohhhh man, I am still depressed.  Thank goodness I was able to go see the Cubbies World Series trophy this morning...

[Dead Dog Alley]

4 hours ago, brfrad said:

Watching that game, I feel my hatred for Missouri come back more and more.  Thames was a punk.  My hatred for Norm, brings me to my teenager days.

 

I was sitting behind the Missouri bench one time in the late 90s. Norm was getting worked up with the refs, and the Sit Down Norm cheer got going. Norm turned around to face the crowd, and struck a pose and started waving his arms like a conductor to lead the cheer. Say what you want about him, but damn that was funny.

[jayschool]

6 hours ago, Blindcheck said:

 

I agree...My thought has always been...Can you coach a team to prepare for the conference tournament.

 

I know their are high school coaches that always seem to find ways to win districts, regardless of record...and the regular season just seems like preparation for the postseason.

 

Thoughts...do you play Morrow enough to keep him fresh...Watson...maybe he sits a game or two to get 100%.

 

If you know the only way to the tourney is winning the conference tourney, do you change the way you manage your roster and your gameplanning over the next couple of weeks?

At this point, you play to win enough games to get the 10th seed, and that may require 3-3 down the stretch. At that point, winning four in a row — while improbable — is much easier than winning five in a row.