Nebraska on the Selection Committee Board

cipsucks · January 29, 2018

7 minutes ago, hskr4life said:

Serious question...

Does anyone else not like that a single one of our Big 10 games wasn't picked up by someone other than BTN after Jan 1? Does anyone think that this doesn't help us with "the eye test?"

The only eyes we are getting on our games is Big 10 eyes. That sucks to me. Just a random thought I guess.

TV schedule was set up when NU was picked to finish 13th in the league. I'm just happy we're not on ESPN3.

big red22 · January 29, 2018

Here are some FACTS to look at, all things listed are based on RPI...

The highest rated team left out: #21 Missouri St, #30 Hofstra (2006), #30 Air Force (2007).
... among the big six: #40 Cincinnati (2006).
The lowest rated teams to get at-large bids (ALB): #67 USC, #64 Marquette (2011), #63 NC State (2005), #63 Stanford (2007).
Most teams from one conference: 11 (Big East - 2011).
... as percentage of membership: 6/9 (ACC 4 times, last - 2004).
Fewest wins to get an ALB: 17 (Alabama - 2006).
Most losses to get an ALB: 14 (Arizona - 2008, five teams in 2011).
Worst record to get an ALB: 18-14 .563 (Arizona - 2008, Michigan St - 2011)
Number of times a team with at least 20 wins has been left out: 215
... among the big six: 37
Number of times a team with at least 25 wins has been left out: 11
Most wins left out: 27 (Drexel, Oral Roberts - 2012)
... among the big six: 23 (Arizona - 2012, Mississippi St, Virginia Tech - 2010, Florida - 2009)
Best record left out: 24-5 .828 (Coastal Carolina - 2011)
... among the big six: 23-8 .742 (Virginia Tech - 2010)
Highest RPI ranking for a sub-.500 team: 67 (Georgia Tech - 2008)

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This is the 4 teams from the big six left out at 23 wins...

Arizona 2012 - While finishing 7-3 in the final 10 games they were 23-12 overall and had a loss to Arizona State who was 10-21 very late in the season! Not to mention not one PAC 12 team was rated in 2012
Virginia Tech 2010 - Finished the season with a 5-5 record
Mississippi St. 2010 - Finished 8-8 to close out the season and had a conference record of 9-7
Florida 2009 - Finish 9-7 in a conference with one rated team at the end of the year LSU who was Number also not to mention they went 4-6 in the final 10 games.

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If Nebraska finishes with 23 in the regular season they would have to win out...

Nebraska's final 10 games = 9-1... Yeah nuff said I don't want to hear any RPI bull ****
Nebraska's worst loss = St. Johns (They will look specifically at this game details because it will be our worst loss and see Lovett played)
Nebraska's record will be 23-8 (Those other teams 23-12, 23-11, 23-11 and 23-8)
Nebraska conference record would be 14-4 (I don't give a **** how bad the conference is they are in)

If Nebraska finishes with 22 wins in the regular season...

You all can figure out the rest, but they are not going to be left out at 14-4 or 13-5... if they go 12-6 they will be a bubble team and may need work to get in. Them going 12-6 means their final 10 games they go 7-3. It would be similar to Arizona 2012, and I could see needing work.

22 is the magic number IMO no doubt about it no matter how they get to it!

Edited January 29, 2018 by big red22

Cookie Miller Wasn't Dirty · January 29, 2018

40 minutes ago, hskr4life said:

From what I read, neither is conference RPI... which many are saying will hinder our ability to get in.

"Likewise, they said, a conference's overall RPI would never be brought up"

So in a way, the 4th place finishers and the conference RPI will only let 4 to maybe 5 Big 10 teams in are kind of in the same boat.

Right, but conference RPI is a reflection of each individual team's RPI. So while conference RPI will never be a cause for deciding who gets in, it will have a correlation with who gets in. That's why comparing the 6th conference in year's past can be a useful measure to estimate how many Big Ten teams will get in this year.

Art Vandalay · January 29, 2018

1 hour ago, Cookie Miller Wasn't Dirty said:

Absolutely. I hope no one is interpreting me to be saying that it's purely metric-based. I know it's not. If it were, they'd just take the top XX teams in the RPI and be done with it. The main point I've been making is that our conference standing is not a factor in their decision. I've been seeing and hearing a lot of Husker fans say things like, "There's no way they'd keep out the 4th place B1G team who went 13-5 in conference!" My opinion is that they can and very well might this year.

You definitely come off as a metrics only matter guy and that is why I keep responding. If you think when the Nebraska discussion comes up and some of the guys on the committee do not say "If Michigan is in we need to look hard at these guys as they beat them heads up and finished ahead of them in the BIG10". That is a part of the process, real people who watch a lot of basketball so they can intelligently discuss and compare these teams without relying solely on data. In order to have those discussions, injuries, conference performance, how they match up via the eyeball test, etc will be brought up as evidence.

These guys should know pretty well which conference and how these teams finished in said conference or they should not be on the committee. The other data is provided because it takes a lot of time to pull together and a lot probably would not do it for themselves.

hhcmatt · January 29, 2018

34 minutes ago, hskr4life said:

Does anyone else not like that a single one of our Big 10 games wasn't picked up by someone other than BTN after Jan 1?

It's been nice not changing the TV station on the previews this calendar year.

Cookie Miller Wasn't Dirty · January 29, 2018

1 minute ago, Art Vandalay said:

You definitely come off as a metrics only matter guy and that is why I keep responding. If you think when the Nebraska discussion comes up and some of the guys on the committee do not say "If Michigan is in we need to look hard at these guys as they beat them heads up and finished ahead of them in the BIG10". That is a part of the process, real people who watch a lot of basketball so they can intelligently discuss and compare these teams without relying solely on data. In order to have those discussions, injuries, conference performance, how they match up via the eyeball test, etc will be brought up as evidence.

These guys should know pretty well which conference and how these teams finished in said conference or they should not be on the committee. The other data is provided because it takes a lot of time to pull together and a lot probably would not do it for themselves.

Conference standing and conference record are metrics, and I'm advocating against them. I'm not saying metrics are all that matter, but I am saying which metrics matter. Conference related metrics do not. There are going to be a number of examples of "Well Team X is in, and Team Y beat them and even finished higher in their conference standings."

The non-metrics that matter are based on the committee's observations of teams when they play. Basically, do they look the part? I fully admit that this plays a role in the selection process, as it should.

nustudent · January 29, 2018

Fact of the matter is....we're unfortunately being dealt some bad luck. Nothing we can really do about it. It happens. It happens elsewhere. It's not exclusive to us. Every year there is a deserving team left out because their SOS or RPI isn't ideal. It just might be us. The bad luck stems in the fact that some teams we scheduled, just didn't pan out to be as good as expected. We have a few patsys....but every team does. It's not like we didn't make an effort. Gavitt Game, ACC/Big 10 challenge, Kansas, Creighton, Orlando Tourney is over 50% of our non-con. This isn't a deal where Doc scheduled the entire SWAC as his non-con and that was it. We made an attempt and it didn't work in our favor. Just as in last year, the non-con was probably a bit more difficult than expected.

Minnesota and St. John's tanking hurts. Couldn't expect that. Can't fault our non-con schedule. It was strong enough, especially had we beaten UCF.

To me..the UCF loss is the biggest killer. Kansas is better than we are. Even though we could have won, I can still accept that loss. Penn State is a quality team on the road. Creighton is a quality team on the road. Even St. John's at the time was a quality team on the road. UCF was a neutral site game against a team that we are better than. And the loss cost us a big difference in quality of opponents the next two games as well. That one haunts me more than any of the others.

Edited January 29, 2018 by nustudent

ajb5856 · January 29, 2018

We've got 3 road games left starting tonight. Currently, we sit around RPI 65. How big of a boost do we anticipate from any one road win considering for RPI purposes a road win equals 1.4 and a home win is only 0.6? Definitely need to avoid the bad losses but the majority of the NCAA discussion seems to be around Nebraska's lack of quality wins. If we get our RPI into the low 50s, maybe high 40s maybe that does the trick? The index as a whole takes into account who you beat, where you beat them, and then basically your SOS with opponents winning percentage and opponents opponents winning percentage. If you lack quality wins, but also avoid bad losses, and stack yourself favorably in the RPI, doesn't that speak to your overall winning ability with regard to overall toughness of schedule you played?

Seems like theres a lack of 'opportunities' in quality wins but our best chances may lie in notching these road victories.

HuskerFever · January 29, 2018

58 minutes ago, hskr4life said:

Serious question...

Does anyone else not like that a single one of our Big 10 games wasn't picked up by someone other than BTN after Jan 1? Does anyone think that this doesn't help us with "the eye test?"

The only eyes we are getting on our games is Big 10 eyes. That sucks to me. Just a random thought I guess.

Yep. Just look at any of the SEC teams (top to bottom) and they're getting a lot of quality air time.

HuskerActuary · January 30, 2018

1 hour ago, ajb5856 said:

We've got 3 road games left starting tonight. Currently, we sit around RPI 65. How big of a boost do we anticipate from any one road win considering for RPI purposes a road win equals 1.4 and a home win is only 0.6? Definitely need to avoid the bad losses but the majority of the NCAA discussion seems to be around Nebraska's lack of quality wins. If we get our RPI into the low 50s, maybe high 40s maybe that does the trick? The index as a whole takes into account who you beat, where you beat them, and then basically your SOS with opponents winning percentage and opponents opponents winning percentage. If you lack quality wins, but also avoid bad losses, and stack yourself favorably in the RPI, doesn't that speak to your overall winning ability with regard to overall toughness of schedule you played?

Seems like theres a lack of 'opportunities' in quality wins but our best chances may lie in notching these road victories.

RPI Forecast says that 23-8 will give us an RPI of 43, 22-9 would be 54. That's regular season only.

REDZONEDAN · January 30, 2018

Let’s win the whole F’in thing!

Dead Dog Alley · January 30, 2018

11 hours ago, royalfan said:

I think the coaches need to have a conference led discussion about scheduling and what the best approach is for the league to have the highest ceiling and floor in the most important measuring systems. With the brilliance of the academics in this league etc. the league should not be getting outgamed in this key element.

The Missouri Valley figured out how to game the RPI more than 10 years ago. The Big Ten should never let that happen.

A big problem was the Big 10 / ACC Challenge, though.

HuskerActuary · January 30, 2018

After this win, we are squarely in the first eight out. This I'm fairly confident about. Unfortunately, as we've talked about, we need to keep winning against most/all of these remaining teams to stay here on the bubble. But we're here. We are a bubble team!

HuskerFever · January 30, 2018

It's a shame the committee won't see on paper that we just played 4 games in 8 days with 3-1 on the road and 1-0 at home. That one loss against, then #13, Ohio State.

HuskerActuary · January 30, 2018

Bracket Matrix just updated. We are included in two brackets

HuskerFever · January 30, 2018

Just now, HuskerActuary said:

Bracket Matrix just updated. We are included in two brackets

Literally just looked myself. Both 11 seeds.

khoock · January 30, 2018

Itll be interesting to see where we stand when we play again in 8 days. Most of the teams we are worried about will have played 2-3 games in that span.

ajb5856 · January 30, 2018

25 minutes ago, HuskerActuary said:

Bracket Matrix just updated. We are included in two brackets

But it's not updated to include our latest win. When I was on there earlier there were 93 total brackets and we were in 1. Now there are 94 and we were in that 94th bc you're right we're in 2 total. That update was at 8:35 pm. Will be interesting to see everyone's perception as we keep tallying wins.

HuskerFever · January 30, 2018

1-6 on the road... "They're going to need to prove they can win on the road."

Nebraska: "Hold my beer." (Wins their next 2 road games)

AuroranHusker · January 30, 2018

4 minutes ago, HuskerFever said:

1-6 on the road... "They're going to need to prove they can win on the road."

Nebraska: "Hold my beer." (Wins their next 2 road games)

Nebraska is 5-7 away from PBA and 12-1 at PBA. That's getting kinda good.

TZAHL · January 30, 2018

6 hours ago, nustudent said:

Fact of the matter is....we're unfortunately being dealt some bad luck.   Nothing we can really do about it.   It happens.   It happens elsewhere. It's not exclusive to us.   Every year there is a deserving team left out because their SOS or RPI isn't ideal.   It just might be us. The bad luck stems in the fact that some teams we scheduled, just didn't pan out to be as good as expected.   We have a few patsys....but every team does.   It's not like we didn't make an effort.   Gavitt Game, ACC/Big 10 challenge, Kansas, Creighton, Orlando Tourney is over 50% of our non-con.   This isn't a deal where Doc scheduled the entire SWAC as his non-con and that was it.   We made an attempt and it didn't work in our favor. Just as in last year, the non-con was probably a bit more difficult than expected.

Minnesota and St. John's tanking hurts.   Couldn't expect that.   Can't fault our non-con schedule.   It was strong enough, especially had we beaten UCF.

To me..the UCF loss is the biggest killer.   Kansas is better than we are. Even though we could have won, I can still accept that loss.   Penn State is a quality team on the road.   Creighton is a quality team on the road.   Even St. John's at the time was a quality team on the road.    UCF was a neutral site game against a team that we are better than.   And the loss cost us a big difference in quality of opponents the next two games as well.   That one haunts me more than any of the others.

There has to be some sort of argument made with ‘body of work’ vs ‘eyeball test’. Yes we lost to UCF. They had Taco Fall at that time. We had no offensive identity and a bunch of new pieces.

Texas A/M hammered West Virginia early in the year. Does that make them a 4 seed? The SEC is a highly rated conference but it’s based on stuff that happened months ago. I get that you can’t just swipe all early season basketball under the rug and there is a reason why you play these games, but Michigan State was dominant at the end of their non conference and now they are sitting 3rd in conference and have to battle to get wins. Does Michigan State handle the Huskers now like they did back in December?

Like some have said I think things like the SEC/BIG 12 challenge later in the conference season are great. You get to see where teams are currently at. Both conferences performed admirably and I don’t think many teams that took part are going to be dropping a whole lot in terms of where the committee looks at them inless your conference gets totally wiped out.

Weatern KY and SMU beat Purdue early in the year. Does the same result happen in February? Probably not, which is why some of the early season results, while important in some aspect, are not the end all-be all of who makes the tournament in March.

TZAHL · January 30, 2018

1 hour ago, HuskerActuary said:

After this win, we are squarely in the first eight out. This I'm fairly confident about. Unfortunately, as we've talked about, we need to keep winning against most/all of these remaining teams to stay here on the bubble. But we're here. We are a bubble team!

There is a lot of ball left. Win games and then in 3 weeks I think we should start worrying/dissecting. Too much can happen between now and then. If Penn State starts ripping off impressive wins then we go from talking about a 4 bid conference to a 6 bid conference. Projections are nice but the games gotta be played. Not projections.

PS—playing what if is kind of fun though ?

49r · January 30, 2018

I will say I am very VERY glad we get PSU at home...they're gonna be a tough out now that Reaves is back.

Cookie Miller Wasn't Dirty · January 30, 2018

We jumped 8 spots to 57 RPI according to realtimerpi.com. That makes me feel better about 23 being enough. Maybe even 22.

AuroranHusker · January 30, 2018

15 minutes ago, 49r said:

I will say I am very VERY glad we get PSU at home...they're gonna be a tough out now that Reaves is back.

That could be another No-Sit Sunday if NU & PSU keep rollin'

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