Bracketology

[GoBigRed]

**If you are not a "dreamer" or you don't want to get ahead of yourself and risk getting your hopes crushed, please do not read any further. If you choose to anyway, you reserve no right to complain about this topic.**

 

Just wanted to take a look around the country to see how far off we are from being in the discussion in Lunardi's opinion. His Feb. 10 Bracketology with RealTime RPI rankings:

 

Last 4 In
50. Providence (16-8, 6-5 Big East) SOS 44
61. LSU (15-7, 6-4 SEC)  SOS 76
41. BYU (17-9, 9-4 WCC) SOS 27
49. Missouri (16-7, 4-6 SEC) SOS 71

First 4 Out
57. Georgetown (14-9, 5-6 Big East) SOS 18
46. St. Joseph's (16-7, 6-3 A10) SOS 50
65. Clemson (15-7, 6-4 ACC) SOS 110
56. Ole Miss (16-7, 7-3 SEC) SOS 79

Next 4 Out
69. Louisiana Tech (20-5, 8-2 CUSA) SOS 207
72. West Virginia (14-10, 6-5 Big 12) SOS 57
62. St. John's (15-9, 5-6 Big East) SOS 32
42. Oregon (15-8, 3-8 Pac 12) SOS 16

Oregon is the highest RPI team left out of the field at 42. LSU is lowest RPI team in as an at large at 61 (clearly Lundardi values conference performance over non-conference dominance...see Baylor and Oregon). West Virginia is the lowest RPI team to receive any mention from Lunardi at 72. (Nebraska is 67).

Other Multi-Bid Conference Teams between 43 and 72 not included anywhere in bracket:
43. Richmond (15-8, 5-3 A10) SOS 30

53. St. Mary's (17-7, 8-4 WCC)
58. Baylor (14-9, 2-8 Big 12) SOS 4

60. Dayton (16-8, 4-5 A10) SOS 60
63. North Carolina State (15-8, 5-5 ACC) SOS 48

67. Nebraska (12-10, 4-6 Big Ten) SOS 26

68. Boise State (15-9, 5-6 MWC) SOS 55
70. New Mexico State (18-8, 7-3 WAC) SOS 138

 

Forget what we have to do to make the tournament (win a ton of games). I just wanted to know how close are we from even being in the discussion (like Next 4 Out) and I've got to say, we don't look that far off, if West Virginia is in the picture.

The only teams on this "relative" bubble with a tougher schedule than us are Baylor, Oregon and Georgetown. Georgetown is his first team out (at 14-9, 5-6) and Baylor and Oregon are having complete and utter meltdowns at the moment.

 

If you look at West Virginia's schedule (they are in Next 4 Out):
Best Win: Oklahoma (RPI 21)
Top 50: 2-8
Top 100: 3-8
Bad Losses: at 225, 108
Road: 3-5 (against avg. RPI of 91)

 

Now Nebraska:
Best Win: Ohio State (RPI 16)

Top 50: 2-7
Top 100: 4-7
Bad Losses: vs. 173, at 108, at 114
Road: 1-7 (against avg. RPI of 51.5)

 

The only thing I can see giving West Virginia the edge on us is being 6-5 in the top RPI conference, while we are 4-6 in the second-ranked conference. We have better wins, a tougher schedule, and have played 5 of our 8 road games against Top 30 RPI teams (West Virginia has played at ONE top 30 RPI team among their 8 road games.) So the road records shouldn't really matter considering we've played mostly really, really good teams. And our "bad" road loss at Purdue is a "bad" home loss for West Virginia. And their loss at Virginia Tech (225) negates the fact that we have "two" other bad losses at Penn State (114) and to UAB (173).

Even another "Next 4 Out" team like St. John's, considered "the hottest team in America" by some fans of birds.

Best Win: Creighton (RPI 13)

Top 50: 2-6

Top 100: 4-7

Bad Losses: vs. 114, at 117

Road: 2-4 (avg. RPI of 63.8)

 

Pretty similar, slight edge to the Johnnies. (Side note: funny how one is the most athletic and hottest team in the nation, while the other is a blind squirrel trying to find a nut. Penn State beat St. John's on a neutral court). But I digress.

 

My extremely long, drawn out point is: We can't be far off from being in the "Next 4 Out"...if we take care of business and win 3 of our next 4 to get to 15-11, 7-7, we should be in that "Next 4 Out" at the very least. We'd be 7-3 in our last 10 Big Ten games with losses at Michigan and at Michigan State. We'd be right there.

Big "If", I know.

[royalfan]

What I fear is that we are lacking that name brand road win.  Would make a huge difference if we could steal one at Michigan St(just cannot reasonably get myself to envision that) or Indiana(not likely either).  Even if we stole one at Illionois and protected our court, I just don't think it is happening barring a run to semis.  And that means beating an elite team on a neutral court no matter how you slice it.  Just don't think we can move enough without getting that done.  10-8 would look nice, but I still think we would most likely need two in the tourney and at the very least not get creamed in quarterfinals by what would certainly be a very tough team. 

[PimpMario]

Isn't Lundari one of the worst bracketologist around?  

 

Having said that I look at his bracket a lot because it is the easiest way to click through to ESPN's RPI.

[brfrad]

He has 5 teams from the SEC in the tournament.  I have trouble believing that the 7th best RPI conference gets that many teams in the tournament.

[tcp]

i think our conference record is the issue, as the OP suggests.

if we were 6-4, but everything else identical, we'd probably on one of those lists.

[throwback]

The Bracket Matrix ranks Lunardi in the middle of the pack in terms of final accuracy - 35th out of 67 - among bracketologists  that have been around 3+ years. He has been above average the last 2 years.

 

The Bracket Matrix's last four in are: Providence, Oregon, Mizzou, LSU

 

First four out are: Baylor, BYU, St Joe's, Richmond

 

Next four out are: G'town, Ole Miss, La Tech, Clemson

 

http://www.bracketmatrix.com/

[nuled2dance]

WVU showing the country tonight why they should be in.

[doc1394]

Isn't Lundari one of the worst bracketologist around?

Having said that I look at his bracket a lot because it is the easiest way to click through to ESPN's RPI.

I'm fairly certain he got all 68 teams last year an 67 the year before. Could be wrong though.

[TomEadesSucks]

Miami doing us a big solid tonight winning at FSU.

[brfrad]

Talk about a weird team. Miami is 0 - 6 at home in the ACC including a loss to a Va Tech team ranked 225 in the RPI. They are 3 - 2 on the road with wins over 37th N Car and 58 FSU.

[hhcdave]

If we get to even 9-9 we are in the talk with two wins in the Big 10 Tournament.

 

10-8 with one win in the Big 10 Tournament puts us on the bubble.

 

Probably, we have to get to TWENTY WINS to get in because of a less than impressive out of conference quality of win schedule. Georgia and Miami ain't super impressive.

 

10-8 with two wins and we're a lock.

 

9-9 with three wins and we're a lock.

 

Anything else, we probably fall short.

[royalfan]

If we get to even 9-9 we are in the talk with two wins in the Big 10 Tournament.

 

10-8 with one win in the Big 10 Tournament puts us on the bubble.

 

Probably, we have to get to TWENTY WINS to get in because of a less than impressive out of conference quality of win schedule. Georgia and Miami ain't super impressive.

 

10-8 with two wins and we're a lock.

 

9-9 with three wins and we're a lock.

 

Anything else, we probably fall short.

 

Yeah I think you might be right about 9-9 and getting two giving us a shot.  The 2nd of the two would be a huge neutral court win over an elite team.  10-8 and one win won't give us as good a chance unless we somehow win at Mich. St. or Indiana.  We need to beat someone good away from Lincoln. 

[Handy Johnson]

 Beating a Keith Appling-less MSU squad this weekend would really help the cause. Payne will give us fits, but Harris has been in a slump. IU and even Chief Illiniwek on the road will be tough...... but, that's why they play the games, right? Ya never know.

[kleitus]

So long as we're dreaming... if we win both games this week we'd firmly jump past "bubble" stage and control our own destiny for 5th in the conference... with our main competition (wisconsin) playing at our house the last game of the season.  Our RPI would jump probably into the low 40's with a road win against the #9 RPI team.

 

Beating MSU would be one of those 'one in a decade' or so games but hey... lol... since we're dreaming...

[Norm Peterson]

Man, can you imagine?  I'll have to pinch myself to make sure I'm not dreaming.

[lanigan123]

Winning tonight and beating State would have me going bananas.

[a0t0w0]

Maybe it's because I'm priming a little early for tonight's game...but...

 

I feel good about tonight AND at MSU. 

 

11-7 here we come.

[Concrete]

 

Isn't Lundari one of the worst bracketologist around?

Having said that I look at his bracket a lot because it is the easiest way to click through to ESPN's RPI.

I'm fairly certain he got all 68 teams last year an 67 the year before. Could be wrong though.

 

I could also be way wrong, but I think the complaint is that his seedings/region selections are consistently trash.  When you think about it, it's not that hard to get every team in the field correct.  Could I do it?  No, but I'm also not paid to do that/have the connections for it.

[royalfan]

Maybe it's because I'm priming a little early for tonight's game...but...

 

I feel good about tonight AND at MSU. 

 

11-7 here we come.

What you drinking?  I need some of it. 

[a0t0w0]

$11 1.75 of Colston Whiskey from Walgreens. 

 

Baller on a budget.

[lanigan123]

Nebraska needs to get to 20, regardless of how it happens.

[49r]

Picked up a bottle of Templeton Rye last night.  I'm ready!

[a0t0w0]

Nothing is cooler than being fiscally responsible.

[GoBigRed]

No, it's really not that hard to predict the 68. When it comes down to it, there are usually only a handful of teams competing for the final spots. The seedings are much harder to predict.

[MichHusker]

The MSU game is becoming more and more interesting with the injuries of Dawson and Appling. That doesn't mean we have a great chance to win, but it helps us out a bit