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Time To Make The Move

hhcdave

By hhcdave
in The Haymarket Hardwood

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cozrulz

cozrulz

Posted
Posted

I think it would take 10-8 or 9-9 +2 in the Big 10 Tourney for us to dance, just because we're Nebraska and we won't have a "quality" road win unless we steal one at Indiana or Minnesota.

 

The good news is 8-10 gets us in the NIT and if we just go 4-5 the last nine, we're in that.

 

That is what I'm thinking.

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49r
49r

4-2 in the last 6 games with 5 very winnable games left in our final 8.

kleitus
kleitus

i did a little research into schedules in the big ten... just to play into this a bit.   Here's the teams immediately ahead of us in the standings that are not in the top 4 of the big ten ... and a

hhcdave
hhcdave

4-6 with three of four at home (Illinois, Penn State, Purdue).   Go 3-1 and you're sitting at 7-7, on the NCAA bubble and a near lock for the NIT, because:   Last four ALL winnable (except possibl

Blackshirt83

Blackshirt83

Posted
Posted

I think it would take 10-8 or 9-9 +2 in the Big 10 Tourney for us to dance, just because we're Nebraska and we won't have a "quality" road win unless we steal one at Indiana or Minnesota.

The good news is 8-10 gets us in the NIT and if we just go 4-5 the last nine, we're in that.

10 is what it will take.. but it has nothing to do with "being Nebraska". It's about losing to a terrible UAB team on a neutral court.

ajb5856

ajb5856

Posted
Posted

The Big 10 probably gets 5 teams in the NCAA. Possibly 6 but the zero separation in conference won't help.

Have to beat Illinois at home. That game is more important than @Michigan State. A loss to Illinois does a lot more damage than @Michigan State.

What I've been looking for was splitting the four after Indiana. Specifically winning @Northwestern and the Illinois home game. So far so good.

5-7 entering the last week of February with two very winnable home games would be a great spot for the team.

Protect home court the rest of the way and the Huskers finish .500 in conference.

If the B1G only gets 5 teams in we are hosed for sure no matter what we do the rest of the way. The league has 5 teams in the kenpom top 18 and is the best conference according to the kenpom rankings. The conference deserves to have at least 6 if not 7 (or even 8) teams in. Minnesota is 40 kenpom and Indiana is 56. Then you've got us.

They were talking a little during the Iowa/Michigan game about the conference and whether it would be punished for being so balanced. I don't get it, the B1G is the best league. It won't get as many teams in just because there's not a group of clear cut bottom feeders that everyone is beating? The league is so competitive that it will be punished with fewer tourney teams?

rwmctrofholz

rwmctrofholz

Posted
Posted

Seems like it's been a long time since we were even allowed to have a discussion about the prospect of sneaking into the tourney.

 

I believe the last time these conversations were being passed around was leading into a snowy night against Tex AM in Lincoln.  Not sure of the year, but I seem to remember the Aggies banking in a 3 to win it at the buzzer.

 

At any rate, I'm with a previous poster who said they would just as soon take it one game at a time.   

hskr4life

hskr4life

Posted
Posted

Seems like it's been a long time since we were even allowed to have a discussion about the prospect of sneaking into the tourney.

 

I believe the last time these conversations were being passed around was leading into a snowy night against Tex AM in Lincoln.  Not sure of the year, but I seem to remember the Aggies banking in a 3 to win it at the buzzer.

 

At any rate, I'm with a previous poster who said they would just as soon take it one game at a time.

Beating Texas and dropping a clunker to KSU

kleitus

kleitus

Posted
Posted

i did a little research into schedules in the big ten... just to play into this a bit.

 

Here's the teams immediately ahead of us in the standings that are not in the top 4 of the big ten ... and a projection.  upsets happen but still...  it gives you an idea :

 

Northwestern (5-6)

 

These guys probably have the easiest schedule besides ours... good news is if we take care of business at home we knock them behind us.  And yes... this schedule is anything but easy.

 

@MSU (loss)

Minnesota (tossup)

@OSU (loss)

Indiana (tossup)

@Neb (probable loss)

PSU (win)

@purdue (tossup)

 

Figure 3-4 (they've pulled out some doozies and teams tend to play down to them... so i'll say they win their home games although who knows... this team is hard to predict).  I'll say they beat purdue on the road and indiana at home and lose to minnesota just to pick something.  8-10 in the big ten.

 

Indiana (4-5)

 

Very tough schedule here... there's really only one gimme (PSU at home).  I gave them OSU and nebraska at home (because it's their barn and well...).  Beyond that there's a bunch of tossups.  Purdue and indiana don't like each other.  Iowa at home isn't a gimme. 

 

@minnesota (this game is today... loss... hope i don't look like an idiot later lol)

PSU (win)

@purdue (tossup)

Iowa (tossup)

@nw (tossup)

@wisc (Loss)

OSU (win)

Neb (win)

@michigan (loss)

 

to be consistent, i say they lose to NW and split between purdue and iowa.  that leaves them 8-10 in the big ten.

 

Minnesota (4-6)

 

These guys aren't in as good of a position with one more loss already... anywho...

 

Indiana (again... this game is later today... win... hope i don't look stupid lol)

@wisconsin (loss)

@nw (tossup)

Illinois (win)

@OSU (loss)

Iowa (tossup)

@michigan (loss)

PSU (win)

 

Figure split the tossups.  since i already had NW losing to them I'll say they beat NW and lose to Iowa.  That leaves them 8-10 in the big ten with the possibility of 9-9 barring some outlandish wins.

 

Purdue (4-6)

 

This schedule is brutal.  I'm serious when I say you might as well count out Purdue.

 

@OSU (loss... this is tonight hope i don't look totally stupid lol)

indiana (tossup)

MSU (loss)

@NEB (loss)

Michigan (loss)

@Iowa (loss)

@Wisconsin (loss)

NW (Win)

 

One tossup that I gave to them earlier because I didn't want to be that brutal to anybody.  Figure roughly 6-12 in the big ten.

 

I'm going to ignore PSU and Illinois because well... we take care of business and they won't catch us.  That leaves two teams... and this is where it gets VERY interesting)

 

Nebraska (4-6)

 

Illinois (win)

@MSU (loss)

PSU (win)

Purdue (win)

@Illinois (tossup... because they're terrible but it's a road game)

NW (win)

@Indiana (loss)

Wisconsin (tossup... because it's a home game)

 

Once again... split the tossups (which isn't outrageous) and you're looking at 9-9.  But let's take a step back here... and say we're 8-9 (lost at illinois) going into that last game.   Not a horrible scenario... but it gives us a chance to lose one game we shouldn't which I feel is very reasonable.  That leaves the other team :

 

Wisconsin (5-5)

 

You want to talk a brutal schedule?  Here it is.

 

MSU (tossup)

Minnesota (win)

@michigan (loss)

@iowa (loss)

Indiana (win)

@psu (tossup)

Purdue (win)

@Nebraska

 

Ok I stretched a VERY little bit... with the game @psu... because psu plays pretty well at home.  If they split the tossup games they're going to be 9-8 going into that last game in lincoln... and that game will be for FIFTH place in the big ten.  In other words, if MSU wins tomorrow, it's a big deal for us.  And keeping in mind that they could EASILY lose to Indiana or Minnesota somewhere in here -- even at home -- and those two teams are most likely not going to do better than 9-9 either.

 

Just interesting... it's ok to dream... right? lol

HuskerActuary

HuskerActuary

Posted
Posted

Seems like it's been a long time since we were even allowed to have a discussion about the prospect of sneaking into the tourney.

 

I believe the last time these conversations were being passed around was leading into a snowy night against Tex AM in Lincoln.  Not sure of the year, but I seem to remember the Aggies banking in a 3 to win it at the buzzer.

 

At any rate, I'm with a previous poster who said they would just as soon take it one game at a time.   

We have had these conversations since then. The game you are thinking of was in 2008-09, which dropped us to 7-8 in the Big 12 at that time. But, in 2010-11, we beat 3 top 25 teams at home. After the Texas win, we were 6-6 in the conference. Of course we lost the next two games by four points and then by one point in OT. We were a top 40 KenPom team for a few weeks of that season, I think.

49r

49r

Posted
Posted

Seems like it's been a long time since we were even allowed to have a discussion about the prospect of sneaking into the tourney.

 

I believe the last time these conversations were being passed around was leading into a snowy night against Tex AM in Lincoln.  Not sure of the year, but I seem to remember the Aggies banking in a 3 to win it at the buzzer.

 

At any rate, I'm with a previous poster who said they would just as soon take it one game at a time.   

 

We were still in the discussion after that game, but that was 2009.

 

The last time we were seriously on the bubble was like hskr4life said.  After beating #2 Texas at home in 2011.  We really only needed one of the next two, KSU or @ISU to stay in it, and we dropped both.  ISU in OT.  Then we pulled off a big upset against #22 Missouri to get back in the convo and all we needed was a win on the road vs. CU.  Lost it.

 

Frustrating year.  Finally, we lost by 1 to OSU in the Big XII tourney and got gobsmacked at Wichita St in the NIT.  Lots of "fire Doc" talk started after that 6 game stretch (1-5) in which we should have won probably 4 games.

HuskerFever

HuskerFever

Posted
Posted

reality is there's probably going to be a handful of seeding tiebreakers when this is all over. the conference is talent-jammed in the middle.

 

I've been a little wary about making that claim at this point. I'll wait until March Madness. I'm struggling to find out whether the conference is really that "even", or it's just down from where it have been in the past.

kleitus

kleitus

Posted
Posted

honestly don't think it matters at this point...  can we root for chaos?

 

in theory we could finish as high as tied for 4th....  if OSU ends up 10-8 (not unlikely as they've got some rough games left) and we go on a tear after the MSU game.  I think they end up 11-7 though.  I suppose we could dream of winning out but if that happens we can pick up our collective jaws off the floor and smile.

 

We have to take care of business.  period.  that's what we have to root for.

kleitus

kleitus

Posted
Posted

has 6 in and one in the "first four out" in that one...  minnesota is a 10, indiana first four out.

 

it's interesting seeing that and looking at where we stand... we have a legit shot.  given the schedules, i think it's fairly likely we end up ahead of both.

throwback

throwback

Posted
Posted

Thanks for putting that together - very interesting! It pays to have played the tougher portion of our schedule early, especially with a young team that has been improving (even if it has been in fits and starts - two steps forward, one step back, etc).

 

The NCAA selection committee potentially could have some very interesting decisions to make regarding the B1G if this jumbled mess in the middle continues.

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