KenPom 2023-2024 KenPom Rankings Thread

[tcp]

Turns out this has actually been a national thing this year. Lots of really good teams are struggling on the road against unranked squads. One theory I read is that this generation of players has more difficulty performing in hostile environments since they were raised and trained in more supportive environments than was traditional. 

 

Don't know how persuasive that argument is, but it was interesting. 

 

In any event, we can't drag the KSU win around all year as the only resume bullet we have and expect to get selected. It was a great win, but the committee is still very much a "what have you done for me lately" kind of operation. At least in terms of breaking ties. 

 

 

[The Polish Rifle]

Up to 50.

 

Can I just say it’s super annoying that we’re behind 12-9 Iowa, whose best win in Ken Pom is…….NEBRASKA. 

[Nebrasketball1979]

Just now, The Polish Rifle said:

Up to 50.

 

Can I just say it’s super annoying that we’re behind 12-9 Iowa, whose best win in Ken Pom is…….NEBRASKA. 

The computer metrics will continue to punish us for the blowout losses.  However, the quality wins are really piling up and that will really shine in resume comparisons.  We not have two Quad 1A wins (teams in top half of Quad 1) and there will be very few teams that can boast that, even ones that are very high on the seed list.  This was just a huge win.

[The Polish Rifle]

2 minutes ago, Nebrasketball1979 said:

The computer metrics will continue to punish us for the blowout losses.  However, the quality wins are really piling up and that will really shine in resume comparisons.  We not have two Quad 1A wins (teams in top half of Quad 1) and there will be very few teams that can boast that, even ones that are very high on the seed list.  This was just a huge win.

Yep, at the end of the day I want more wins and better wins and we check both those boxes vs teams like Iowa. 

[hskr4life]

9 minutes ago, The Polish Rifle said:

Up to 50.

 

Can I just say it’s super annoying that we’re behind 12-9 Iowa, whose best win in Ken Pom is…….NEBRASKA. 

 

 

Result based metrics like us though.  This was prior to tonight, so our strength of record could be top 30 tomorrow.

[hhcmatt]

Keep in mind with this stuff that it's a committee and not computers who decide the bracket

[millerhusker]

Got a small bump in the metrics and rankings after beating Wisconsin. Got a huge bump after we beat Ohio State who is ranked below us. I don’t get it. 

[hskr4life]

2 minutes ago, millerhusker said:

Got a small bump in the metrics and rankings after beating Wisconsin. Got a huge bump after we beat Ohio State who is ranked below us. I don’t get it. 

Margin of victory and game location I’m sure played a huge factor.  We got the most important metric added though… another W in that Q1 column.

[millerhusker]

2 hours ago, hskr4life said:

Margin of victory and game location I’m sure played a huge factor.  We got the most important metric added though… another W in that Q1 column.

I hear ya but both games were played in Lincoln and the margin of victory difference was only 6 points. Wisconsin stayed at 11 in the NET so that’s a great win. Not sure what Ohio State was when we played them but they’re at 70 now. 
We need kstate to get back into the top 75!

[royalfan]

Keep in mind some metrics(NET for sure) caps overtime mov at one.  

[SkersHoops]

13 minutes ago, millerhusker said:

I hear ya but both games were played in Lincoln and the margin of victory difference was only 6 points. Wisconsin stayed at 11 in the NET so that’s a great win. Not sure what Ohio State was when we played them but they’re at 70 now. 
We need kstate to get back into the top 75!

They put an asterisk by the OT games.  I'm guessing they get plugged in as a tie, or somewhere close to that.  So, there would probably be a 14 point difference between those wins.  

[aphilso1]

"Scoring Margin

This value has a point differential capped at 10 points in each game. All overtime games are capped at one point."

https://www.si.com/college/2018/11/04/college-basketball-rankings-net-system-explain

 

A 10 point vs a 1 point win is significant when scoring margin can only range from 1 to 10.  That's literally the min and max within the NET calculation.

[Vinny]

It’s just so incredibly stupid, for a metric that is supposed to account for everything and show the overall strengths and weaknesses of teams, to discount real data. Why measure margin of victory if sometimes you just throw it out?

 

If anything, showing the resolve to not crumple and continue after 40 minutes of play speaks to a team’s depth and mental strength.  You could argue overtime results should swing the needle more.

[aphilso1]

14 minutes ago, Vinny said:

It’s just so incredibly stupid, for a metric that is supposed to account for everything and show the overall strengths and weaknesses of teams, to discount real data. Why measure margin of victory if sometimes you just throw it out?

 

If anything, showing the resolve to not crumple and continue after 40 minutes of play speaks to a team’s depth and mental strength.  You could argue overtime results should swing the needle more.

 

 All the data is still considered, but it's just not weighted equally.  Every made shot, turnover, and offensive rebound that happens in overtime and in blowouts still counts towards a team's offensive and defensive efficiency numbers.  They just don't double dip by impacting both the efficiency and margin of victory.

 

Schedule tough.  Win on the road.  Score lots of points per possession.  Hold your opponents to few points per possession.  Rebound.  Win the turnover battle.  Lose by a little and win by a lot.  These are still the things that impact NET rankings.

[Vinny]

4 minutes ago, aphilso1 said:

 

 All the data is still considered, but it's just not weighted equally.  Every made shot, turnover, and offensive rebound that happens in overtime and in blowouts still counts towards a team's offensive and defensive efficiency numbers.  They just don't double dip by impacting both the efficiency and margin of victory.

 

Schedule tough.  Win on the road.  Score lots of points per possession.  Hold your opponents to few points per possession.  Rebound.  Win the turnover battle.  Lose by a little and win by a lot.  These are still the things that impact NET rankings.

Well it also removes data by not actually taking into account uh, you know, the margin of victory. Overtime is a part of the game once in a while. Why remove the range of margin of victory for something that is part of the game?

[tcp]

The committee has emphasized this year in and year out. Metrics and ratings are not gospel. There's a significant human factor that can be decisive during the selection process, especially for the teams on the margins. There will always be more teams in those margins then there will be spaces. If we find ourselves there this season, frankly, that alone is significant improvement for our program. We've been an afterthought more often than not for years. I think beingthe plucky underdog that *still* hasn't won a tourney game will play in our favor. We're a perpetual cinderella. And the tourney *loves* its cinderellas. 

 

We're sitting okay. 

[hskr4life]

6 minutes ago, tcp said:

The committee has emphasized this year in and year out. Metrics and ratings are not gospel. There's a significant human factor that can be decisive during the selection process, especially for the teams on the margins. There will always be more teams in those margins then there will be spaces. If we find ourselves there this season, frankly, that alone is significant improvement for our program. We've been an afterthought more often than not for years. I think beingthe plucky underdog that *still* hasn't won a tourney game will play in our favor. We're a perpetual cinderella. And the tourney *loves* its cinderellas. 

 

We're sitting okay. 

A lot to like about this post.  At the end of the day it’s a bunch of dudes in a room that make the decision on who is in and out.  The metrics might not show it this morning, but Twitter is running wild with our win from last night.  Those kind of things play a role too.

 

Also agree with the storyline that we can bring this year.  I would even add Keisei’s story to the points made above.  Remember there are a lot of eyes in Japan that would be on the NCAA tournament should we make it.

[hhcmatt]

Thought I'd point out in the KenPom thread that KenPom counts OT play like it counts everything else.

 

https://kenpom.com/blog/the-predictive-value-of-overtime-margin/

https://kenpom.com/blog/the-simplest-proof-that-overtime-data-is-useful-and-that-garbage-time-exists/

[big red22]

14 hours ago, The Polish Rifle said:

Up to 50.

 

Can I just say it’s super annoying that we’re behind 12-9 Iowa, whose best win in Ken Pom is…….NEBRASKA. 

Amen... use teamrankings.com.  I feel their RPI is the most legit

Edited February 2, 2024 by big red22

[throwback]

Just going to drop this here

 

.....

 

I like RPI now.

[AuroranHusker]

43 minutes ago, throwback said:

Just going to drop this here

 

.....

 

I like RPI now.

 

 

Beating #1 and #7 on that RPI list will still hold a lot of weight with the committee. The eyeballs watch it all. NU has to find a way to grab a couple of road dubs, they're out there to be had. Keep plugging away at it 'til they get it. NU being 14-1 at home is a major boost to their efforts at the Promised Land. Now we need our dudes to get their games to travel well. GBR

 

[Vinny]

I was just thinking about how much of a factor home/neutral/away affects a lot of these metrics.  Going forward, I'd like to see us in an MTE that has more opportunities for Q1/Q2 competition.  The revenue from the Cornhusker Classic I'm sure was nice. But if these metrics, warts and all, have a say at the end of the year in bubble status and potential seeding, I don't know if we should be scheduling three teams likely to be Q3/Q4 teams. It's just risking a bad loss without much benefit outside of revenue. I'm also sure there aren't going to be many teams in Q1/Q2 territory wanting to come to Lincoln for an MTE next year with the way we've been playing at home. Something I'm curious to see how we handle in the future.

[hskr4life]

7 minutes ago, Vinny said:

I was just thinking about how much of a factor home/neutral/away affects a lot of these metrics.  Going forward, I'd like to see us in an MTE that has more opportunities for Q1/Q2 competition.  The revenue from the Cornhusker Classic I'm sure was nice. But if these metrics, warts and all, have a say at the end of the year in bubble status and potential seeding, I don't know if we should be scheduling three teams likely to be Q3/Q4 teams. It's just risking a bad loss without much benefit outside of revenue. I'm also sure there aren't going to be many teams in Q1/Q2 territory wanting to come to Lincoln for an MTE next year with the way we've been playing at home. Something I'm curious to see how we handle in the future.

Agreed, though I wouldn’t mind more teams like Duquesne in these MTEs we do schedule.  They’ve kind of collapsed, but their NET was pretty high there for a while. 
 

You’d think teams like Drake, Grand Canyon, Bradley, San Francisco, McNeese, LA Tech, App State, etc would be willing to possibly come here.  Not saying you have to schedule all of them but the teams mentioned above are all Top 70 KenPom teams and would be Q2 opponents.

 

It’s also dependent on how these teams do the rest of the year as they could collapse at any point or thrive at any point.  You really think Oregon St thought they were getting a Q2 win when they beat App State and knocked them to 0-2?

Edited February 2, 2024 by hskr4life

[aphilso1]

2 hours ago, Vinny said:

Well it also removes data by not actually taking into account uh, you know, the margin of victory. Overtime is a part of the game once in a while. Why remove the range of margin of victory for something that is part of the game?

 

Every single basket still counts.  If you're up 10 and make a three pointer as time expires to win by 13, that basket still counts towards your net efficiency rating (and against your opponent's net efficiency).  As for why the formula is the way it is, I don't have any insider knowledge but can draw reasonable conclusions:

 

-By only using a range of 1 to 10 for margin of victory, it is essentially weighting points scored at the end of close games greater than points scored at the end of blowouts.  It also reduces the punishment for emptying your bench at the end of games that are well in hand.  Again, it doesn't completely remove the penalty if your walk-ins can't maintain the margin of victory, because bricks on offense and inept defense still count against your efficiency numbers.  But it also doesn't punish you twice.

-By counting all overtime games as a 1 point margin of victory, it is ensuring teams aren't punished for forcing overtime and ultimately losing.  In other words, it recognizes that forcing overtime and losing is a better performance than not even making it to overtime.

 

Perhaps a better way to think of how the data works, is in the importance or weight assigned to any given basket.  A basket made on offense or allowed on defense counts towards only one metric in a blowout (net efficiency).  A basket made/allowed in a game decided by less than 10 points is more important than one made in a blowout, and the formula reflects this by including it in a second metric (margin of victory).  A basket that ultimately decides the outcome is the most important of all, and the formula incorporates this basket into all metrics (winning %, adj win %, team value index, net efficiency, and margin of victory). 

[AuroranHusker]

23 minutes ago, hskr4life said:

Agreed, though I wouldn’t mind more teams like Duquesne in these MTEs we do schedule.  They’ve kind of collapsed, but their NET was pretty high there for a while. 
 

You’d think teams like Drake, Grand Canyon, Bradley, San Francisco, McNeese, LA Tech, App State, etc would be willing to possibly come here.  Not saying you have to schedule all of them but the teams mentioned above are all Top 70 KenPom teams and would be Q2 opponents.

 

It’s also dependent on how these teams do the rest of the year as they could collapse at any point or thrive at any point.  You really think Oregon St thought they were getting a Q2 win when they beat App State and knocked them to 0-2?

 

I think a neutral site tourney with teams of Duquesne caliber would have been better in hindsight. Nebraska played Univ. of Oregon one year during Doc's reign at Omaha's arena, maybe NU needs to revive that idea again... Aleks Maric dominated that day.

 

 

Edited February 2, 2024 by AuroranHusker