What are the AD expectations for Fred next year?

[Nebrasketball1979]

37 minutes ago, Chuck Taylor said:

This raises a question: Does a dead horse feel good when you stop beating it?

 

I'll weigh in on this one, having little (i.e. no) experience beating a dead horse.  I believe the horse is likely indifferent.  I mean, it's dead so it probably doesn't feel good or bad or more dead than it already was.  The horse is probably ambivalent at the point of death regarding future beatings.

 

I think the real question is does the "beater" feel better after beating the dead horse.  Again, I lack experience with horses but I suspect the answer is yes.  Speaking from experience, I feel remarkably better when I beat the ever loving crap out of spider with the bottom of my shoe.  I'm pretty sure it's dead after the first whack but the ensuing onslaught of a dozen or more "beatings" brings about a great sense of relief.  I suspect it's the same feeling for someone that beats a horse, although they may be a bit more tired.

[Dead Dog Alley]

2 hours ago, B-town hoopsfan said:

Well we are 40-83 and 18-61 in the BIG since then.  Talent wise there was a lot of hope going into year 3 but that ended in disaster. Year 4 going into year 5 feels like the first time we have a lot of confidence in scheme and culture being right. 

54% of opponents since Hoiberg has been coaching have been NCAA Tournament qualifiers.  Under Miles it was 38%.  That makes a difference.

 

 

 

 

[The Polish Rifle]

18 minutes ago, Dead Dog Alley said:

54% of opponents since Hoiberg has been coaching have been NCAA Tournament qualifiers.  Under Miles it was 38%.  That makes a difference.

 

 

 

 

2018 makes a lot more sense now. That’s mid major resume. 

[Dead Dog Alley]

6 minutes ago, The Polish Rifle said:

2018 makes a lot more sense now. That’s mid major resume. 

It should have looked better, though, because Penn State (final KenPom rating: 19, NIT champs in a dominant fashion) definitely should have been in the tournament, and maybe also Maryland.

[hskr4life]

2 minutes ago, Dead Dog Alley said:

It should have looked better, though, because Penn State (final KenPom rating: 19, NIT champs in a dominant fashion) definitely should have been in the tournament, and maybe also Maryland.

Those 5 losses to teams not in the tournament hurt almost as much as the loss to KU.

[NUdiehard]

37 minutes ago, Dead Dog Alley said:

54% of opponents since Hoiberg has been coaching have been NCAA Tournament qualifiers.  Under Miles it was 38%.  That makes a difference.

 

 

 

 

 

If my back-of-napkin math is correct, then vs. NCAA Qualifiers:

 

Miles:  W=16 L=72     - Winning Percentage = 18.2%

 

Hoiberg: W=9 L=58  - Winning Percentage = 13.4%

 

Obviously, Fred's record is worse, but not quite the disparity that many seem to think when you consider quality of opponent.  Also interesting that Fred's record this year vs. NCAA Qualifiers is better than any single year in Miles tenure (5-12 vs. 4-12).

Edited March 14, 2023 by NUdiehard

[Chuck Taylor]

1 minute ago, Dead Dog Alley said:

It should have looked better, though, because Penn State (final KenPom rating: 19, NIT champs in a dominant fashion) definitely should have been in the tournament, and maybe also Maryland.

At the time of the NCAA selections, Penn State was 64 in Torvik. Beating 5 straight 20-win teams, and only one at home, made them look a lot better at the end of the season. They also only played 2 P5 noncon games and lost both and finished 8-10 in the BIG. 

[Dead Dog Alley]

3 minutes ago, NUdiehard said:

 

If my back-of-napkin math is correct, then vs. NCAA Qualifiers:

 

Miles:  W=16 L=72     - Winning Percentage = 18.2%

 

Hoiberg: W=9 L=58  - Winning Percentage = 13.4%

 

Obviously, Fred's record is worse, but not quite the disparity that many seem to think when you consider quality of opponent.

 Hoiberg: 2-46 in first 48;

Hoiberg: 7-12 in last 19.

[hskr4life]

All I’m seeing is the reason we don’t dance is because we can’t beat teams that do dance.  Who woulda thunk it?  

[Dead Dog Alley]

6 minutes ago, hskr4life said:

All I’m seeing is the reason we don’t dance is because we can’t beat teams that do dance.  Who woulda thunk it?  

 

Except that when we do, we still don't beat them very regularly (3-9 in 2014)

 

 

[hskr4life]

19 minutes ago, Dead Dog Alley said:

 

Except that when we do, we still don't beat them very regularly (3-9 in 2014)

 

 

Right— this trend, I'm sure, goes well beyond the Tim and Fred years.  Would be interesting if we’ve ever had a .500 or better record against teams that danced.

[The Polish Rifle]

42 minutes ago, hskr4life said:

All I’m seeing is the reason we don’t dance is because we can’t beat teams that do dance.  Who woulda thunk it?  

Here’s the formula to dancing. Schedule 3 tough non-con games. Win one, in the other 2 slow the game to a snails pace so your 4 point defeat is a NET dream scenario. Go .500 in B1G play. Most importantly - beat the absolute pants off the scrubs on your schedule. I’m talking all gas, no brakes, full speed, beat downs. Make their coach complain to ESPN after the game that you were full court pressing up 35.

[jdw]

6 hours ago, Chuck Taylor said:

I'm sorry, but  115-114 overall and 52-76 in the BIG for 7 season is not good enough. Just because we've hired people who were worse does not make that "good enough." 

 

This raises a question: Does a dead horse feel good when you stop beating it?

 

 

Depends on if rigor mortis has set in and what kind of stuff your into.

[cipsucks]

 

 

[HuskerFever]

Here's an idea. Just win. Then we'll stop nitpicking stats to show how bad we are. Win-win.

[HuskerFever]

By the way, Adolph Lewandowski called. He wants his rock bottom thread back.

[Dead Dog Alley]

56 minutes ago, HuskerFever said:

By the way, Adolph Lewandowski called. He wants his rock bottom thread back.

 

The average Adolph has a better NCAA coaching record than the average Fred.  Unfortunately our Adolph brought the Adolph average down.

 

Adolph Lewandowski

Alma Mater: Nebraska (1931)

Career Record (major schools): 10 Years, 81-125, .393 W-L%

Schools: Montana (57-62) and Nebraska (24-63)

Conference Champion: 0 Times (Reg. Seas.), 0 Times (Tourn.)

NCAA Tournament: 0 Years

Adolph Rupp

Born: September 2, 1901

Alma Mater: Kansas (1923)

Career Record (major schools): 41 Years, 876-190, .822 W-L%

School: Kentucky (876-190)

 

 

 

[Huskers/Cubs]

I have been a fan since the late 70’s and have always thought the next season will be the year the Huskers win a NCAA tournament game, since that has not happened, Huskerhoops reminds me of this phase:

(free beer tomorrow). Unless Fred can bring in multiple top 100 freshmen or proven transfers this program will not make the NCAA tournament, hopefully the 1890 nil collective will help with recruiting. Only 1 NCAA tournament appearance in 23 years is not acceptable from a power 6 program, with resources.

 

 

[Busch Light]

I know this isn’t popular, but I don’t support Fred being here another year. I foresee another .500 or below year. I think by bringing him back, we lack sense of urgency and are essentially just throwing a year down the drain. Very similar to bringing back Frost when every possible fact and metric pointed to it just wasn’t going to work out. It likely will put us at least two years out from being a good basketball team and I would argue that this next season should be the rebuild year.
 

That said, the decision has likely been made so there’s no point whining or dwelling on it. So what does Fred need to do next year? To me he needs to go above .500 in conference play and get to 19 wins. If we don’t quite make the NCAA tourney, I’m fine with that. This would mean we are a bubble-type team and would be hosting an NIT game. 
 

If these metrics were met, I’d look to extend Fred’s contract and give him a slight pay increase back up to $3.5 million. This would mean that we have played mostly quality basketball for 1.5 seasons which to me is in line with expectations here. 

[HuskerFever]

Not to derail too much, but Hoiberg is a proven P5 coach, Frost was not.

 

If the decision is to dip into a coaching search, then choosing a P5 assistant and mid-majors head coach would be just as much of a risk as finding another Frost.

 

I'm still on the Trev train right now. He's shown more initiative for this program than a few ADs before him in this short time. So whatever decision he goes with, that's fine by me. But I'm sure he's been thinking two steps ahead since he had his last performance review with Hoiberg.

[unl]

7-25 (2-18)

7-20 (3-16)

10-22 (4-16)

16-16 (9-11)

 

Hate Fred or love him, but keep building on that and I’ll be happy. Chucky and Keisei leading us to 20 wins? Maybe..

[49r]

7-25 (2-18)
7-20 (3-16)
10-22 (4-16)
16-16 (9-11)
 
Hate Fred or love him, but keep building on that and I’ll be happy. Chucky and Keisei leading us to 20 wins? Maybe..

Well, when you put it that way…

[throwback]

12 hours ago, unl said:

7-25 (2-18)

7-20 (3-16)

10-22 (4-16)

16-16 (9-11)

 

Hate Fred or love him, but keep building on that and I’ll be happy. Chucky and Keisei leading us to 20 wins? Maybe..

Looking at those numbers, if Fred has been playing the set-the-bar-so-low-at-the-beginning-that-everything-looks-like-progress long game, color me impressed. Have to admit I've done that on a few jobs over the years. It's a great strategy.

 

[89Husker]

22 minutes ago, throwback said:

Looking at those numbers, if Fred has been playing the set-the-bar-so-low-at-the-beginning-that-everything-looks-like-progress long game, color me impressed. Have to admit I've done that on a few jobs over the years. It's a great strategy.

 

In comparison, Miles set the bar too high by making the tournament in his 2nd year. By his 5th and 6th year, winning records were not good enough to keep his job.  So maybe starting god-awful and improving each year is a really good strategy.

[unl]

You’re right. He should have won right away. Because Nebraska set him up for success right out of the gates.