Why i'd stick with fred.

[Ron Mexico]

31 minutes ago, royalfan said:

He did inherit a complete unmitigated disaster.   That has to be taken into consideration.  As does the fact that it is still an unmitigated disaster.  These records and worst this and worst that almost have to take out the first year.  What he did wrong was believing he could put a band aid on it very quickly and be decent, rather than take it in the ass the first year(which we obviously did anyway) and make no progression towards the future.   Then he did the same thing year two.  Then he kind of did the same thing year 3., but we are now getting some high school kids at least.  I can certainly understand wanting to move on.  I do, just not quite as adamant about it as some here are.  

Every single coach since Nee has inherited a disaster. We are a bad program. Some of those coaches worked to hold onto players as a part of the transition. FH dumped every player except for Thor. 

[Norm Peterson]

If you transposed two letters in the thread title and changed the punctuation slightly, you'd get ...

 

"Why'd I stick with Fred?"

 

And that's probably what Trev would be asking himself at this time next year if he doesn't pull the trigger.

[Faux Mike Peltz]

It’s interesting. I remember when Hoiberg was first hired. Word was leaking that he met with the current players and basically showed the door to numerous players, including Brady Hieman. I’m probably spelling his name wrong. Anyway, a lady commented on the OWH editorial that cutting players, especially in state kids, wasn’t the “Nebraska” way and that bringing in a bunch of outsider transfers wasn’t how you built a stable program. I remember laughing and saying she didn’t know anything and these transfers were gonna get us to the sweet 16 like they did in Ames. Aye yiy yiy…

[Ron Mexico]

1 hour ago, Ron Mexico said:

Here you go:

SEASON	TOT NUM GMS	TOT WIN	TOT LOSS	LOSS DIFF>10	LOSS DIFF>15	LOSS DIFF>20	LOSS DIFF>25	LOSS DIFF>30
2019/20	32	7	25	17	12	6	2	1
2020/21	27	7	20	12	6	3	2	2
2021/22	27	7	20	11	7	6	4	2

Here are both sets of numbers with some additional calculations.

What sticks out to me are the # of losses by 15/20/25/30. FH has more 30pt losses and is almost even on 20 and 25pt losses. Interesting is that TM and FH 1st seasons really skew skew their over all numbers. TM last 2 seasons showed marked improvement over the previous 5 in double digit losses. TM only winnings seasons where also the 3 lowest in double digit loss seasons. FH has only won 1 road game. TM typically only won about 23% of his road games.

Every season except for '17-18 TM had at least 1 5 game losing streak. In '17-18 the longest losing streak was 2 games. 

 

[Ron Mexico]

This is a 5K view at the current state of our program.

Those numbers really tell us what our eyes see and the general consensus about this team.

Poor discipline, poor effort, lack of motivation, etc..

Can slice and dice the data many different ways and none of it looks good and it is reflection of the man in charge.

 

[royalfan]

3 hours ago, Ron Mexico said:

Every single coach since Nee has inherited a disaster. We are a bad program. Some of those coaches worked to hold onto players as a part of the transition. FH dumped every player except for Thor. 

Claiming every situation is an equal disaster is about as dumb as it gets.  But you found a way to make it dumber yet.  Harris averaging .8 this year,  heimann not good enough to play in summit, karrimgton Davis not good enough to play anywhere, Nana averaging 7 at Se Missouri!  Is that who you wanted to keep?  Lmao!!!  
 

also wrong yet again as he kept Burke too.  He kept the only guys that could play a lick.  It was horrific what he inherited.  
 

Other than all that you are spot on!!

[Ron Mexico]

1 minute ago, royalfan said:

Claiming every situation is an equal disaster is about as dumb as it gets.  But you found a way to make it dumber yet.  Harris averaging .8 this year,  heimann not good enough to play in summit, karrimgton Davis not good enough to play anywhere, Nana averaging 7 at Se Missouri!  Is that who you wanted to keep?  Lmao!!!  
 

also wrong yet again as he kept Burke too.  He kept the only guys that could play a lick.  It was horrific what he inherited.  
 

Other than all that you are spot on!!

You really got me with Burke...yep you really go me there. Dare I mention that you neglected to to include Thomas Allen?

I'll probably let that one go, you are already pressed enough.

 

Seriously though, what are you even doing? Are you attempting to justify this mess? You think if he stays we will be any better next year. Look dude I wanted this to work out as much as anybody, but it is plainly obvious it isn't, and it won't. It doesn't matter what players stayed or went because this was going to happen regardless. 3yrs later and it is still happening but now worse, if that was even possible. 

 

He can recruit, well more accurately Matt A. can recruit, with the best of them. Unfortunately he can't coach.

Whatever magic he had in Ames, was mostly likely his assistant coaches, is long gone. 

He is going to go down as the worst Nebraska basketball coach in history.

 

 

 

 

 

 

[hhcmatt]

One man's mess is another man's clean slate

[CrazyforNUHOOPS]

12 hours ago, royalfan said:

He did inherit a complete unmitigated disaster.   That has to be taken into consideration.  As does the fact that it is still an unmitigated disaster.  These records and worst this and worst that almost have to take out the first year.  What he did wrong was believing he could put a band aid on it very quickly and be decent, rather than take it in the ass the first year(which we obviously did anyway) and make no progression towards the future.   Then he did the same thing year two.  Then he kind of did the same thing year 3., but we are now getting some high school kids at least.  I can certainly understand wanting to move on.  I do, just not quite as adamant about it as some here are.  

It wasn’t a “complete unmitigated disaster”, but it wasn’t going to be as successful as the previous two seasons either. I stand by what I’ve said before, Dachon Burke and Jervay Green are different basketball players (and people) never having known Cam Mack. 

[royalfan]

1 hour ago, CrazyforNUHOOPS said:

It wasn’t a “complete unmitigated disaster”, but it wasn’t going to be as successful as the previous two seasons either. I stand by what I’ve said before, Dachon Burke and Jervay Green are different basketball players (and people) never having known Cam Mack. 

You obviously don’t have a very good concept of a complete unmitigated disaster.  You should pry just stick with laughing at peoples posts since you aren’t capable of adding anything productive to a discussion.  

[nustudent]

Not that I think it's a given to change a bunch....but I'd just prefer to see Fred back for one more with a reduced buyout opportunity similar to Frost.

 

Seems like we say this every year....but I do think next year would be a more complete team if Walker returns.   Our effort obviously isn't the best, but when your only post player remains Walker, you are going to be hurting on post defense and rebounding.  Between Keita, Wilhelm, Walker and a mixture of Andre and Oleg, I think you have a pretty significantly different front court.

 

I also think chemistry may be a bit better.  While you have some relatively talented recruits coming in, none are on the level of Bryce and with Verge leaving...that takes two shot hunters out of the rotation.  

 

A roster of:

PG: McPherson, Lloyd

SG:  Wilcher, Lawrence

SF:  Dawson, Edwards

PF:  Walker, Wilhelm

Post:  Keita, Andre, Oleg

 

Is something that feels much more complete to me than this year's.   A guy like Verge is individually talented, but obviously does his own thing and was a late add.   All those guys starting aren't 'quick fix' or 'one and done' transfers.   

 

I'm not convinced it'd be a great team, but I do think it'd look a lot different.

 

I wouldn't mind seeing them go after some transfers, but as someone mentioned, I want it to be more of a culture guy than raw talent or upside.  I'd love to go see them get a guy like Griesel or Scheierman who aren't superstars but are solid all around players to mix into the group and would theoretically have some pride since they are playing at home.

 

Between the recruiting class and the money....I can live with him returning for another year.  If $20M is too much for football, $18.5M seems too much for basketball as well.  We've had enough turnover over the last x amount of years roster wise that getting some of those recruits here wouldn't be a terrible thing.   Even if you fire Fred next year, it gives the next coach a fighting chance to keep some.  Additionally on the money, not only do we have to pay Fred, but we have to pay the next guy too.  Can we afford to spend what we need too on the next guy if we're paying Fred that much?   Because of those things, I can live with Fred for another year.

 

Edited February 24, 2022 by nustudent

[Huskerpapa]

Sighhhh.  We are turning on our own.  

Most of us on this board are diehard fans.  Most of us have waited forever to be good, to win.  Most of us have an opinion as to how to go about and finally find nirvana.  So healthy disagreement makes this a great place to hang out.

Many of us believe Fred is gone, some believe he deserves at least one more year.  Trev has indicated that winning mattered.   Is Trev even thinking of making a move?  I cannot believe he isn't.  I have heard a few things, but what I have heard solidifies nothing.  But I do know winning, treatment of players, character, money, attendance, program image, plan to improve are some of the ingrdiants that go into the decision soup.  

I will continue to attend games, cheer and try to do my little part to bring home wins.  But I confess, over the last two years I moved from unbridled optimism, to hope, to be dumbfounded, then to anger and now I am at, or close to apathy.  I sort of classify myself as a super-fan.  It leaves me really concerned about our rank-and-file and wagon jumping fans.  They are pretty much gonzo.

[royalfan]

7 hours ago, Ron Mexico said:

You really got me with Burke...yep you really go me there. Dare I mention that you neglected to to include Thomas Allen?

I'll probably let that one go, you are already pressed enough.

 

Seriously though, what are you even doing? Are you attempting to justify this mess? You think if he stays we will be any better next year. Look dude I wanted this to work out as much as anybody, but it is plainly obvious it isn't, and it won't. It doesn't matter what players stayed or went because this was going to happen regardless. 3yrs later and it is still happening but now worse, if that was even possible. 

 

He can recruit, well more accurately Matt A. can recruit, with the best of them. Unfortunately he can't coach.

Whatever magic he had in Ames, was mostly likely his assistant coaches, is long gone. 

He is going to go down as the worst Nebraska basketball coach in history.

 

 

 

 

 

 

Lmao off.  Allen was so gone.  Wanted to go home.  That all you got?  Again showing reading comprehension not a strength.  What part of “I want him gone too” is hard for you to grasp?  I challenge you to read posts before responding nonsense to them.  Almost as ludicrous as going off on some tangent on the differences between football and basketball in another response to me.  

[Klas3131]

4 minutes ago, royalfan said:

You obviously don’t have a very good concept of a complete unmitigated disaster.  You should pry just stick with laughing at peoples posts since you aren’t capable of adding anything productive to a discussion.  

And what do we have now, 3 years into Hoiberg's regime?  3 years, 3 completely different teams, 3 trainwrecks.  It shouldn't look like this in Year 3.  NU has the best player they've ever had in Bryce, and some other good pieces.  And it looks horrible EVERY night.  I don't see it looking better next year.  Bryce is gone.  Other will leave.  Will any of these incoming recruits stick with their commitment?  They see what is happening and Fred is probably gone (if not this year, next year).  The team looks disinterested.  The coaching staff on the sideline looks disinterested (other than Gates at times).  It's criminal that a team with some decent talent is THIS bad.  I watched Minnesota/Wisconsin last night.  It's a miracle NU beat them.  A miracle.  NU is not only 14th out of 14 teams, they are SO FAR away from #13 - ridiculous.  I love Fred the person, but Fred the coach has been a disaster.  

[hhcmatt]

39 minutes ago, nustudent said:

A roster of:

PG: 

SG:  Wilcher, Lawrence, McPherson

SF:  Dawson, Edwards, Lloyd

PF:   Wilhelm

Post:  Keita, Andre, Oleg, Walker

 

If we're going to look ourselves in the mirror for what we actually have instead of what we hope we have, you'll see the paradox of better talent that can't win waiting for year 4 of the FH era.

[nustudent]

15 minutes ago, hhcmatt said:

 

If we're going to look ourselves in the mirror for what we actually have instead of what we hope we have, you'll see the paradox of better talent that can't win waiting for year 4 of the FH era.

As I said...I don't know for sure if we'll be better but having the necessary ingredients is the first step.   It's very clear we haven't had them yet.   On paper that group certainly seems better and more complete.  It's entirely possible it isn't.   But if we're speculating...I'd much rather speculate on something that looks good on paper as opposed to something that doesn't.

[Ron Mexico]

17 minutes ago, nustudent said:

As I said...I don't know for sure if we'll be better but having the necessary ingredients is the first step.   It's very clear we haven't had them yet.   On paper that group certainly seems better and more complete.  It's entirely possible it isn't.   But if we're speculating...I'd much rather speculate on something that looks good on paper as opposed to something that doesn't.

I can appreciate what you are  saying and do understand your point.

To me, at this point, it's like trying to put a new engine in a demolition derby car.

Those recruits are going to have be coached. 

Ignore the recruits/players on the team, for the sake of argument. Lets assume talent wise they are in the top half of the conference. What has FH done to show that results will be any different? At some point you have play sound defense and with a solid offensive philosophy. There needs to be accountability and discipline, which we haven't seen, and was confirmed by Kobe Webster.

 

 

[49r]

This is a surprising stance that @nustudent is taking on the Fred issue.  Surprising to me at least.

[Art Vandalay]

15 hours ago, Ron Mexico said:

I ran some numbers for FH's tenure at Nebraska:

We have jwon 21 of 86 total games. 24.4%

 

We have lost 40 of 86 total games by 10pts or more.

 Of 86 total games played we have lost 46.5% by 10pts or more.

 Every time we step out on the court there is a 1 in 2.15 chances of us losing by 10pts or more.

 

We have lost 25 of 86 total games by 15pts or more. 29.1%

 Of 86 total games played we have lost 29.7% by 15pts or more.

 Every time we step out on the court there is a 1 in 3.4 chances of us losing by 15pts or more.

 

We have lost 15 of 86 total games by 20pts or more. 

 Of 86 total games played we have lost 17.4% by 20pts or more.

 Every time we step out on the court there is a 1 in 5.75 chances of us  losing by 20pts or more.

 

I'm working on same numbers for Miles as comparison. Will post those later.

Why? Haven’t they been posted a million times already? Miles did not get it done. Fred has been a disaster. 
 

I think most of us want to go to the tourney on a semi regular basis and win a game here or there. Neither of those two got that done, hopefully the next guy will.

[Chuck Taylor]

52 minutes ago, Klas3131 said:

NU has the best player they've ever had in Bryce, and some other good pieces.

Tryonn Lue on line 1. Erick Strickland on line 2. Eric Piatkowski on line 3 ....

 

They all impacted winning and played 10+ years in the NBA. Bryce just has the most points on one of the worst teams in school history.

 

He might be a 1st round draft pick (though not as high as Rich King). I doubt he'll be a star in the NBA or play 10+ years. 

[thrasher31]

1 hour ago, nustudent said:

Not that I think it's a given to change a bunch....but I'd just prefer to see Fred back for one more with a reduced buyout opportunity similar to Frost.

 

Seems like we say this every year....but I do think next year would be a more complete team if Walker returns.   Our effort obviously isn't the best, but when your only post player remains Walker, you are going to be hurting on post defense and rebounding.  Between Keita, Wilhelm, Walker and a mixture of Andre and Oleg, I think you have a pretty significantly different front court.

 

I also think chemistry may be a bit better.  While you have some relatively talented recruits coming in, none are on the level of Bryce and with Verge leaving...that takes two shot hunters out of the rotation.  

 

A roster of:

PG: McPherson, Lloyd

SG:  Wilcher, Lawrence

SF:  Dawson, Edwards

PF:  Walker, Wilhelm

Post:  Keita, Andre, Oleg

 

Is something that feels much more complete to me than this year's.   A guy like Verge is individually talented, but obviously does his own thing and was a late add.   All those guys starting aren't 'quick fix' or 'one and done' transfers.   

 

I'm not convinced it'd be a great team, but I do think it'd look a lot different.

 

I wouldn't mind seeing them go after some transfers, but as someone mentioned, I want it to be more of a culture guy than raw talent or upside.  I'd love to go see them get a guy like Griesel or Scheierman who aren't superstars but are solid all around players to mix into the group and would theoretically have some pride since they are playing at home.

 

Between the recruiting class and the money....I can live with him returning for another year.  If $20M is too much for football, $18.5M seems too much for basketball as well.  We've had enough turnover over the last x amount of years roster wise that getting some of those recruits here wouldn't be a terrible thing.   Even if you fire Fred next year, it gives the next coach a fighting chance to keep some.  Additionally on the money, not only do we have to pay Fred, but we have to pay the next guy too.  Can we afford to spend what we need too on the next guy if we're paying Fred that much?   Because of those things, I can live with Fred for another year.

 

I think adding at least one more PG to that mix would benefit the team. If Walker comes back, Andre likely bounces too. He'd be coming off the bench with no path to starting in the near future. Also, don't love Walker at the 4 after watching Nance toast him. Nance is an anomaly at the 5, Walker would routinely see that at the 4. Also, Lloyd isn't really a lead guard, more of a combo. 

 

But, to the main point. That's pretty much where I'm at. If they couldn't swallow the pill for football to pay up, they're 100% not doing it for basketball. Plus football could've attracted much better coaches than basketball if they canned Frost (arguably), so the pool will probably be thin with basketball

 

Does this mean I want him back? No. Same stance I had with Frost. I didn't think he deserved to come back and I don't think Fred does either. Financial implications will cause this to stay though. Just the reality. All we can do now is look to next year and the roster. Just my 2c

 

Also, if they move on, I will 100% support that too. I have a few coaches I like to potentially look this way 

Edited February 24, 2022 by thrasher31

[nustudent]

1 hour ago, Ron Mexico said:

I can appreciate what you are  saying and do understand your point.

To me, at this point, it's like trying to put a new engine in a demolition derby car.

Those recruits are going to have be coached. 

Ignore the recruits/players on the team, for the sake of argument. Lets assume talent wise they are in the top half of the conference. What has FH done to show that results will be any different? At some point you have play sound defense and with a solid offensive philosophy. There needs to be accountability and discipline, which we haven't seen, and was confirmed by Kobe Webster.

 

 

They do need to be coached.  And it's fair to doubt whether we have the staff to do it.  That being said, I also struggle completely disregarding the Iowa State tenure.  He certainly hasn't shown much here.  But I view this as much as year 2 as year 3 because year 1 was going to be a disaster regardless of who was coaching here.   And if ISU was a one and done situation, it'd be easy for me to disregard it as a lightning in the bottle situation.  5 out of 6 years isn't a fluke, in my opinion.  There was something there.   Whether that translates or he can duplicate it, we will see, but unlike most of our failed coaches in football and basketball, he is a guy who has had success at a P5 level.   

 

This probably outlines that sad state that we are in but I guess I look at it like this.....if we fire Fred...I have zero hope for being decent next year.   Any hope would be solely focused on the future.   And considering Fred's massive buyout and the fact we may have to be hiring and firing a football coach next year, I wonder how much we are going to be willing to spend to bring a capable guy in.   And he's certainly not cemented himself as a good coach here, but if he is fired there's going to be massive turnover again and we will undoubtedly lose back to back good recruiting classes.   If we keep Fred, I'm still apprehensive in believing we will be good, but I have more hope for next year with him than not.  He'll have parts next year that he's never had here.  I guess I'd rather see a team next year with back to back recruiting classes stacked on top of each other rather than another gut job.   If he didn't have talent coming in, I'd be less likely to have any desire to see him come back.  He may or may not be a good coach but I guess I'd like to see him with his most complete roster yet where we seemingly have viable options at each position (as opposed to 2 or 3) and can play teams more straight up so we know for sure.

 

And part of me is putting a lot on Keita.  We have been  outsized and outmuscled in the post basically since we joined the Big 10.  If Keita lives up to the billing, he's a body type that we haven't had since Maric, and maybe even before him.   Should we keep a guy for one player?   Probably not.  But considering the timing and alternatives, I'm okay with giving Fred another shot.

 

I certainly understand the doubting of his coaching and the effort issues are concerning.  But I think his biggest failure to date was how this team was put together personnel wise more so than X's and O's.   This isn't to excuse the weak-mindedness or lack of effort, but having the physical ability to stack up against your opponents and knowing it...can do a lot mentally.  We haven't been able to/can't really stack up of physically.  Some of that is Fred's fault.  Some of that is what he inherited.  Some of that is bad luck. 

 

Lastly, I guess I see the worst thing that happens with Fred is we give him another year.   If he fails, we fire him and move on with a smaller buyout to pay.   If we fire him now, we lose quite a bit of talent digging the hole deeper for the next guy who is going to be anything but a sure bet anyways.  

Edited February 24, 2022 by nustudent

[nustudent]

21 minutes ago, thrasher31 said:

I think adding at least one more PG to that mix would benefit the team. If Walker comes back, Andre likely bounces too. He'd be coming off the bench with no path to starting in the near future. Also, don't love Walker at the 4 after watching Nance toast him. Nance is an anomaly at the 5, Walker would routinely see that at the 4. Also, Lloyd isn't really a lead guard, more of a combo. 

 

But, to the main point. That's pretty much where I'm at. If they couldn't swallow the pill for football to pay up, they're 100% not doing it for basketball. Plus football could've attracted much better coaches than basketball if they canned Frost (arguably), so the pool will probably be thin with basketball

 

Does this mean I want him back? No. Same stance I had with Frost. I didn't think he deserved to come back and I don't think Fred does either. Financial implications will cause this to stay though. Just the reality. All we can do now is look to next year and the roster. Just my 2c

 

Also, if they move on, I will 100% support that too. I have a few coaches I like to potentially look this way 

I can see Walker at the 5 again as well.  Body wise he's probably more suited for the 4.  Skill wise for the 5.  I do think he can defend the 4 better if he actually gets set in that role with another viable big next to him.

 

One thing I have been disappointed with Fred in, is the fact that we refuse to try different lineup combinations in the frontcourt.   I get that it isn't ideal and depth wise we certainly can't do it all game....but you really can't try to put a Walker and Andre combination on the floor at the same time just for spot minutes against bigger teams?

 

I'd be all for a PG too.   Just don't know if the type of PG that we need will be willing to come here.   I'm somewhat skeptical of a 6'6" PG but Lloyd has played it some through AAU and high school in addition to being you traditional wing.  

Edited February 24, 2022 by nustudent

[Blackshirt83]

2 hours ago, nustudent said:

Not that I think it's a given to change a bunch....but I'd just prefer to see Fred back for one more with a reduced buyout opportunity similar to Frost.

 

Seems like we say this every year....but I do think next year would be a more complete team if Walker returns.   Our effort obviously isn't the best, but when your only post player remains Walker, you are going to be hurting on post defense and rebounding.  Between Keita, Wilhelm, Walker and a mixture of Andre and Oleg, I think you have a pretty significantly different front court.

 

I also think chemistry may be a bit better.  While you have some relatively talented recruits coming in, none are on the level of Bryce and with Verge leaving...that takes two shot hunters out of the rotation.  

 

A roster of:

PG: McPherson, Lloyd

SG:  Wilcher, Lawrence

SF:  Dawson, Edwards

PF:  Walker, Wilhelm

Post:  Keita, Andre, Oleg

 

Is something that feels much more complete to me than this year's.   A guy like Verge is individually talented, but obviously does his own thing and was a late add.   All those guys starting aren't 'quick fix' or 'one and done' transfers.   

 

I'm not convinced it'd be a great team, but I do think it'd look a lot different.

 

I wouldn't mind seeing them go after some transfers, but as someone mentioned, I want it to be more of a culture guy than raw talent or upside.  I'd love to go see them get a guy like Griesel or Scheierman who aren't superstars but are solid all around players to mix into the group and would theoretically have some pride since they are playing at home.

 

Between the recruiting class and the money....I can live with him returning for another year.  If $20M is too much for football, $18.5M seems too much for basketball as well.  We've had enough turnover over the last x amount of years roster wise that getting some of those recruits here wouldn't be a terrible thing.   Even if you fire Fred next year, it gives the next coach a fighting chance to keep some.  Additionally on the money, not only do we have to pay Fred, but we have to pay the next guy too.  Can we afford to spend what we need too on the next guy if we're paying Fred that much?   Because of those things, I can live with Fred for another year.

 

Oh my God. Someone actually gets it? Well said.

 

I also want to see what Loesner can do with some of these guys with a more normal year of practice and development. He's supposed to be pretty good at developing players. 

Edited February 24, 2022 by Blackshirt83

[cornfed24-7]

13 minutes ago, Blackshirt83 said:

Oh my God. Someone actually gets it? Well said.

Because a buyout of 15mil is sooooooooo much less than 18.5.