Time Machine: thoughts on this hypothetical lineup

[aphilso1]

Bo Spencer

Toney McCray

Bear Jones

Matej Kavas

Leslee Smith

 

 

How many wins do you think a starting lineup of those five former Huskers would achieve in today's Big Ten?

Would you consider that a "talented" lineup?

What style of play would you pick for that team to be most successful?

Edited December 15, 2021 by aphilso1
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[aphilso1]

I will explain my hypothetical questions once people have had a chance to respond.  Until then, I'll keep this note here to reserve the space.

 

EDIT: After reading through the "rock bottom" thread, it really got me thinking about talent level.  Multiple people in the thread (in multiple years) lauded the Huskers as the most talented roster they had seen despite poor results. Talk about deja vu.  Wish I had a dollar for every time someone has mentioned how much Hoiberg has upgraded our talent, and yet we suck worse than ever.  It made me wonder if we are overhyping current players' talent, or if they are just underachieving, or if Coach is running a system that doesn't fit the personnel.  So I tried to think of the most comparable former Husker (in the past 15ish years) for each of our current starters, and then started thinking about how that lineup should do against our current schedule.

 

Verge = Bo Spencer.  Senior transfer from a high major program who needs the ball in his hand but doesn't make other players better.  Does have the ability to get lots of buckets on nights when everyone else is cold.

 

Bryce = well, nobody.  Toney McCray on his best nights was the closest I could think of to Bryce on an average night.  Similar skillsets, ability to get to the rim effortlessly, and smooth enough that the game in general looks like they aren't putting in much effort.  Takes ill-advised shots from way beyond the arc.  Proclivity to attempt to draw a charge and get called for a block.  Weak defender, primarily because of what looks like a lack of effort on that end of the floor.  Obviously the one big glaring difference is that Bryce is way, way more consistent offensively than Toney was.

 

Keisei = Bear Jones.  One dimensional player.  Can get hot from deep and take over a game, or can go 0-for-many and still keep shooting.  lateral foot speed is poor.  

 

Lat = Matej Kavas.  It's actually kind of funny how consistent our production has been in the Hoiberg Era from this spot on the floor.  Lanky 6'8" shooter who forgot how to shoot after putting on a scarlet and cream jersey.  This is probably sounding like a trend, but lateral foot speed and defense are both below average.

 

Walker = Leslee Smith.  Old school NBA power forward body and skill set.  Asked to play the 5 and guard taller players night after night.  High effort and high character player.  Stats aren't gaudy.  Can hold their own in the post, but needs help from teammates to rebound due to being a couple inches shorter than preferred for a 5.

 

So cutting to the chase, if we had a roster today of Spencer/McCray/Jones/Kavas/Smith, I wouldn't expect our record to be much better than it is.  I think we'd still suck.  And that makes me wonder if our talent is actually improving.

Edited December 15, 2021 by aphilso1

[BannedAccount]

Is that a lineup before knowing what they did here or after?

[PimpMario]

that's an interning lineup.  they could probably have a winning home conference record and if you pair that with buy games they could get close to .500 on the season.

 

they would probably beat Western Illinois or whoever we lost to

[Navin R. Johnson]

Since 4 of the 5 under achieved from what I expected, I don't think they would fare very well in the Big Ten. (Smith being the exception) Not really a team that could get up and down the floor but not a huge post presence either.  Probably run the heck out of sets trying to get shots for average shooters. (Jones, Kavas)  Get McCray and Smith the ball in the paint. Clear outs for Spencer.  Defense might be the biggest issue.  Kavas could not guard a wall and Jones seemed to struggle as well.  Team does have some length.  Probably have to zone a lot.

[hhcmatt]

I think we will have Brandon Richardson replace Bear Jones in about a month

[basketballjones]

Toney McCray as your comp for Bryce McGowens is a crime against humanity. Everyone else is pretty spot on tho, hahaha.

[Handy Johnson]

Smith’s minutes were limited due to his bum knees, McCray was wildly mediocre & Kavas was flat out BAD. Those guards could shoot it some, but any comparison to this year’s squad is a reach…

[Dead Dog Alley]

Has Toney McCray in this hypothetical universe taken 5,000 charges in practice to the point where he's a physical wreck, who's shooting is very much affected by that fact?

[aphilso1]

4 hours ago, hhcmatt said:

I think we will have Brandon Richardson replace Bear Jones in about a month

 

Ding ding ding! We have a winner.  You picked up on where I was going with this.  Although I would have chosen Dylan Talley instead of BRich.

[aphilso1]

2 hours ago, basketballjones said:

Toney McCray as your comp for Bryce McGowens is a crime against humanity. Everyone else is pretty spot on tho, hahaha.

 

Closest I could come up with since 2005, which is when I started really following the team closely.  Had to make a call between McCray and Jason Dourisseau.  Went with McCray based on style of play and relative lack of defense.  Although obviously Bryce's offensive production is way higher that Toney's was at any point.

[basketballjones]

1 hour ago, aphilso1 said:

 

Closest I could come up with since 2005, which is when I started really following the team closely.  Had to make a call between McCray and Jason Dourisseau.  Went with McCray based on style of play and relative lack of defense.  Although obviously Bryce's offensive production is way higher that Toney's was at any point.

Tony guarded junior and senior year. 

[aphilso1]

24 minutes ago, basketballjones said:

Tony guarded junior and senior year. 

 

Senior year, kind of.  Still guarded with a sliding-feet-attempt-at-a-charge quite a bit.  But effort was improved as an upperclassman.  

 

Who would you pick as a Bryce comp if not Toney?  I still think their style is most similar over the past 15 years, even if Toney is a very poor man's version of Bryce.

[Norm Peterson]

On 12/14/2021 at 3:55 PM, aphilso1 said:

I will explain my hypothetical questions once people have had a chance to respond.  Until then, I'll keep this note here to reserve the space.

 

EDIT: After reading through the "rock bottom" thread, it really got me thinking about talent level.  Multiple people in the thread (in multiple years) lauded the Huskers as the most talented roster they had seen despite poor results. Talk about deja vu.  Wish I had a dollar for every time someone has mentioned how much Hoiberg has upgraded our talent, and yet we suck worse than ever.  It made me wonder if we are overhyping current players' talent, or if they are just underachieving, or if Coach is running a system that doesn't fit the personnel.  So I tried to think of the most comparable former Husker (in the past 15ish years) for each of our current starters, and then started thinking about how that lineup should do against our current schedule.

 

Verge = Bo Spencer.  Senior transfer from a high major program who needs the ball in his hand but doesn't make other players better.  Does have the ability to get lots of buckets on nights when everyone else is cold.

 

Bryce = well, nobody.  Toney McCray on his best nights was the closest I could think of to Bryce on an average night.  Similar skillsets, ability to get to the rim effortlessly, and smooth enough that the game in general looks like they aren't putting in much effort.  Takes ill-advised shots from way beyond the arc.  Proclivity to attempt to draw a charge and get called for a block.  Weak defender, primarily because of what looks like a lack of effort on that end of the floor.  Obviously the one big glaring difference is that Bryce is way, way more consistent offensively than Toney was.

 

Keisei = Bear Jones.  One dimensional player.  Can get hot from deep and take over a game, or can go 0-for-many and still keep shooting.  lateral foot speed is poor.  

 

Lat = Matej Kavas.  It's actually kind of funny how consistent our production has been in the Hoiberg Era from this spot on the floor.  Lanky 6'8" shooter who forgot how to shoot after putting on a scarlet and cream jersey.  This is probably sounding like a trend, but lateral foot speed and defense are both below average.

 

Walker = Leslee Smith.  Old school NBA power forward body and skill set.  Asked to play the 5 and guard taller players night after night.  High effort and high character player.  Stats aren't gaudy.  Can hold their own in the post, but needs help from teammates to rebound due to being a couple inches shorter than preferred for a 5.

 

So cutting to the chase, if we had a roster today of Spencer/McCray/Jones/Kavas/Smith, I wouldn't expect our record to be much better than it is.  I think we'd still suck.  And that makes me wonder if our talent is actually improving.

Your last paragraph: "So cutting to the chase, if we had a roster today of Spencer/McCray/Jones/Kavas/Smith, I wouldn't expect our record to be much better than it is.  I think we'd still suck.  And that makes me wonder if our talent is actually improving."

 

Explain your logic to me. It sounds like what you're saying is that this group of cherry-picked players from the past would also be bad if we threw them into a starting lineup together; therefore, our talent now hasn't gotten any better than it used to be. If that's what you're saying, then I don't think your conclusion follows from your premise.

[hhcmatt]

The thing is if you take any of these lineups and replace Fred Hoiberg with any other Nebraska basketball coach from the last 25 years, that team would beat Fred's team.

[Vinny]

25 minutes ago, hhcmatt said:

The thing is if you take any of these lineups and replace Fred Hoiberg with any other Nebraska basketball coach from the last 25 years, that team would beat Fred's team.

Can we make it so you can have two reactions to one post?
 

Because this is true, so I like it.

 

But this is true, so I am sad.

[GoBigRed]

On 12/14/2021 at 3:52 PM, aphilso1 said:

Bo Spencer

Toney McCray

Bear Jones

Matej Kavas

Leslee Smith

 

 

How many wins do you think a starting lineup of those five former Huskers would achieve in today's Big Ten?

Would you consider that a "talented" lineup?

What style of play would you pick for that team to be most successful?

Verge > Spencer

Bryce > McCray

Keisei > Bear

Lat > Kavas 

Walker > Smith

And yet Fred would probably win the exact same number with both groups. 3 or 4
 

 

[GoBigRed]

2 hours ago, Norm Peterson said:

Your last paragraph: "So cutting to the chase, if we had a roster today of Spencer/McCray/Jones/Kavas/Smith, I wouldn't expect our record to be much better than it is.  I think we'd still suck.  And that makes me wonder if our talent is actually improving."

 

Explain your logic to me. It sounds like what you're saying is that this group of cherry-picked players from the past would also be bad if we threw them into a starting lineup together; therefore, our talent now hasn't gotten any better than it used to be. If that's what you're saying, then I don't think your conclusion follows from your premise.

exactly. Talent is infinitely better with our current 5 than that other 5. Coaching, however, is not. Miles would probably get that first 5 to play hard enough to beat Fred and our current starters.

Edited December 16, 2021 by GoBigFred

[BannedAccount]

7 hours ago, aphilso1 said:

 

Closest I could come up with since 2005, which is when I started really following the team closely.  Had to make a call between McCray and Jason Dourisseau.  Went with McCray based on style of play and relative lack of defense.  Although obviously Bryce's offensive production is way higher that Toney's was at any point.

Problem with Toney was he made one mistake and Doc pulled him, same with Bear.  These players were good but Doc had way too short of a leash with his players.  Same could be said of Diaz.

Edited December 16, 2021 by coughunter

[aphilso1]

4 hours ago, Norm Peterson said:

Your last paragraph: "So cutting to the chase, if we had a roster today of Spencer/McCray/Jones/Kavas/Smith, I wouldn't expect our record to be much better than it is.  I think we'd still suck.  And that makes me wonder if our talent is actually improving."

 

Explain your logic to me. It sounds like what you're saying is that this group of cherry-picked players from the past would also be bad if we threw them into a starting lineup together; therefore, our talent now hasn't gotten any better than it used to be. If that's what you're saying, then I don't think your conclusion follows from your premise.

 

We keep telling ourselves that the current players are somehow the most talented bunch we've had since Danny Nee.  And yet we suck even worse than normal.  Why?  Is this roster really as talented as we thought?  To answer that question I need to remove my current biases (both positive and negative).  That's where I got the idea to pick the five recent-ish Huskers who most resembled our current starters and consider what kind of expectations I would have for that bunch.  My conclusion is that if you swap out the names on the back of the current jerseys with players that most closely resemble them, all of a sudden this doesn't look like the most talented group of Huskers anymore.

 

I will admit the main flaw is that we've never had a guy like Bryce before.  So I had to go with the player whose skillset was closest, although he was far less consistent. The other four guys were very similar players to our current starters though.

[aphilso1]

2 hours ago, GoBigFred said:

Verge > Spencer

Bryce > McCray

Keisei > Bear

Lat > Kavas 

Walker > Smith

And yet Fred would probably win the exact same number with both groups. 3 or 4
 

 

 

Agreed that Bryce > Toney.  As for the other four?  Your recency bias is showing.

[Cazzie22]

I am reaching the conclusion that our talent is not good talent.  And/or the coaching has been uninspired.

[GoBigRed]

5 hours ago, aphilso1 said:

 

Agreed that Bryce > Toney.  As for the other four?  Your recency bias is showing.

 
go back and look at their Husker stats. 

[HuskerFever]

6 hours ago, aphilso1 said:

Your recency bias is showing.

 

[millerhusker]

7 hours ago, aphilso1 said:

 

Agreed that Bryce > Toney.  As for the other four?  Your recency bias is showing.

Walker > Smith. And I also just wanna use this post to show a little appreciation to Derrick Walker. He’s 41/51 (80.4%) from the field this year. Shooting nearly 70% in his Nebraska career. That’s crazy. Free throw shooting is much improved. Makes good decisions. He’s a true team player on a team that desperately needs one (or several). I feel bad for him. He’s the type of guy who could be a real solid role player on a really good team.