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Nebraska Bubble Watch

Donkey

By Donkey
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throwback

throwback

Posted
Posted

We're now sitting at that magic number of 10 wins in Q1+Q2. That assumes Rutgers doesn't drop from the #100 NET rating when the numbers are updated tonight/early tomorrow.

 

However, we just don't have that elite win - @ Clemson (NET 35), @ Indiana (NET 51), and (N) Maryland (NET 26) are our best wins now. Having only three Q1 wins in total hurts us too.

 

Wisconsin would be an elite neutral site win at NET 15.

 

A win tomorrow definitely puts us in the conversation. That'd give us 4 Q1 wins, all away from home, which is helpful, as well as 11 Q1+Q2 wins. Those are really good numbers, based on who was invited last year.

 

Ultimately, though, we probably need Wisconsin and one more on Saturday. And at that point, we might as well just win the whole damn thing.

 

I do know this - our resume according to NET metrics is better than the blue team up the road. So if they're still on the bubble, we are too. 

 

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HuskerFever
HuskerFever

It is my goal that by the end of January, we can confidently change this thread title to "Nebraska Selection Sunday Seed Watch."

throwback
throwback

Agree that NCAAs are always ultimate goal.   And some years, a successful NIT run can help a team/program going forward. Spit balling, but maybe if the '13-14 team had gone on an NIT run ins

hskr4life
hskr4life

Heres the thing man... yes we don’t have Copeland.  However, we certainly have the tools to compete.  We were leading Purdue AT Purdue, we just beat Minnesota and Northwestern without Copeland.  

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HuskerFever

HuskerFever

Posted
Posted

We can rationalize it any way we want and focus on the metrics that make us look good. It didn't work out for us last season. There's plenty of metrics that put us out of the tournament barring winning the Big Ten Tournament. That said, we just need to keep winning.

throwback

throwback

Posted
Posted
3 minutes ago, hskr4life said:

We also have no... none... zero bad losses.  Zero losses in the Q3 and Q4 ranges.

We don't, but, based on last year, the committee does not care about Q3 and Q4.

 

It's all about who you've beaten, not who you lost to. And that makes sense. They want to invite at-large teams that have shown an ability to rise up and beat great teams because that fuels upsets, which is what makes the tournament so popular/great.

 

Now each year, the committee has new people, so the emphasis could certainly change a bit. So we'll see. But last year, bad losses meant nothing. 

 

hhcdave

hhcdave

Posted
Posted

I hate to even be talking about this because we inevitably know how history has taught us this ends as Nebrasketball junkies.

 

I can remember in 1998-1999 needing just one more win (including a key game at KSU) and not getting that win. Or Rayford Young COAST TO COAST on Cookie and company in the Big 12 tournament.


Then 2-3 times during the Collier and Sadler eras, even in this one.

 

HOWEVER with the negativity out of the way... Here's where I see us.

 

At the moment, as a #3 seed in the NIT hosting a game. 

 

IF we beat Wisconsin, firmly on the bubble Sunday. Either last four in or first four out.


With one win past that, 100% locked in the tournament.

 

SOOOOOOO I ask... can we finally exercise our demons and get that DUB against the Badgers? A DUB will have us on the edge of our seats Sunday night......

HuskerFever

HuskerFever

Posted
Posted
2 minutes ago, nustudent said:

Said it before...but it's ironic.   Same metrics that kept us out last year, may be why we could sneak in this year.

 

That may be true, but only because they switched to NET as our ranking methodology. We would be far out of the conversation if it was still based on RPI.

nustudent

nustudent

Posted
Posted
3 minutes ago, HuskerFever said:

 

That may be true, but only because they switched to NET as our ranking methodology. We would be far out of the conversation if it was still based on RPI.

The Quad 1/2 wins as well

ladyhusker

ladyhusker

Posted
Posted
 
That may be true, but only because they switched to NET as our ranking methodology. We would be far out of the conversation if it was still based on RPI.
But they made the switch precisely because the RPI was a flawed methodology. That's not to say the NET is an exact science, but it's an improvement over RPI.

Sent from my SM-G930V using Tapatalk

HuskerFever

HuskerFever

Posted
Posted
6 minutes ago, ladyhusker said:
14 minutes ago, HuskerFever said:
That may be true, but only because they switched to NET as our ranking methodology. We would be far out of the conversation if it was still based on RPI.

But they made the switch precisely because the RPI was a flawed methodology. That's not to say the NET is an exact science, but it's an improvement over RPI.

 

Yeah I'm certainly not arguing that. Just stating that although timing of the NET came a year late for us last season... it may have come just in time for us this season.

AuroranHusker

AuroranHusker

Posted
Posted
25 minutes ago, hhcdave said:

I hate to even be talking about this because we inevitably know how history has taught us this ends as Nebrasketball junkies.

 

I can remember in 1998-1999 needing just one more win (including a key game at KSU) and not getting that win. Or Rayford Young COAST TO COAST on Cookie and company in the Big 12 tournament.


Then 2-3 times during the Collier and Sadler eras, even in this one.

 

HOWEVER with the negativity out of the way... Here's where I see us.

 

At the moment, as a #3 seed in the NIT hosting a game. 

 

IF we beat Wisconsin, firmly on the bubble Sunday. Either last four in or first four out.


With one win past that, 100% locked in the tournament.

 

SOOOOOOO I ask... can we finally exercise our demons and get that DUB against the Badgers? A DUB will have us on the edge of our seats Sunday night......

 

Don't think it's enough without a victory on Saturday. 20 wins with 5 quad-1 victories should be enough, though.

 

 

royalfan

royalfan

Posted
Posted
40 minutes ago, hhcdave said:

I hate to even be talking about this because we inevitably know how history has taught us this ends as Nebrasketball junkies.

 

I can remember in 1998-1999 needing just one more win (including a key game at KSU) and not getting that win. Or Rayford Young COAST TO COAST on Cookie and company in the Big 12 tournament.


Then 2-3 times during the Collier and Sadler eras, even in this one.

 

HOWEVER with the negativity out of the way... Here's where I see us.

 

At the moment, as a #3 seed in the NIT hosting a game. 

 

IF we beat Wisconsin, firmly on the bubble Sunday. Either last four in or first four out.


With one win past that, 100% locked in the tournament.

 

SOOOOOOO I ask... can we finally exercise our demons and get that DUB against the Badgers? A DUB will have us on the edge of our seats Sunday night......

 

I went to that debacle in Manhattan.  That damn Wabash cannonball song took months to get out of my head.  Joe Holmes was somehow the best we had at the point.  What a disaster.  

Dead Dog Alley

Dead Dog Alley

Posted
Posted
20 minutes ago, royalfan said:

 

I went to that debacle in Manhattan.  That damn Wabash cannonball song took months to get out of my head.  Joe Holmes was somehow the best we had at the point.  What a disaster.  

 

Danny talked for half the season about how Tyronn Lue might go pro early, but he didn't really believe it, so he ended up replacing Lue with...Joe Holmes.  Nothing against Joe Holmes as a person, but basketball-wise: 1.8 ppg and 1.4 apg, yikes. 

Larry Eustachy said that year, before we played Iowa State, that if Lue had come back Nebraska was probably a Final Four team.  I'm thinking that the Natty Light lover might have been right.

Samborini

Samborini

Posted
Posted
1 hour ago, throwback said:

We're now sitting at that magic number of 10 wins in Q1+Q2. That assumes Rutgers doesn't drop from the #100 NET rating when the numbers are updated tonight/early tomorrow.

 

However, we just don't have that elite win - @ Clemson (NET 35), @ Indiana (NET 51), and (N) Maryland (NET 26) are our best wins now. Having only three Q1 wins in total hurts us too.

 

Wisconsin would be an elite neutral site win at NET 15.

 

A win tomorrow definitely puts us in the conversation. That'd give us 4 Q1 wins, all away from home, which is helpful, as well as 11 Q1+Q2 wins. Those are really good numbers, based on who was invited last year.

 

Ultimately, though, we probably need Wisconsin and one more on Saturday. And at that point, we might as well just win the whole damn thing.

 

I do know this - our resume according to NET metrics is better than the blue team up the road. So if they're still on the bubble, we are too. 

 

 

4C9027B0-D8D7-4C5B-9D4F-0F855CD85C71.jpeg

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