Big Ten Predictions

[huskerbaseball13]

How do you see it shaking out? Below is based on current Massey Ratings.  We are not a good basketball team.  But, I'd like to think we get more than one win.  I'm thinking 5-13 or 6-12 right now. 

 

http://bball.notnothing.net/big10.php?sport=mbb

 

Big 10 Standings

1. Purdue (17 - 1)
2. Wisconsin (16 - 2)
3. Indiana (15 - 3)
4. Michigan (13 - 5)
5. Northwestern (11 - 7)
6. Illinois (9 - 9) Defeated Minnesota based on head-to-head record.
7. Minnesota (9 - 9) Lost to Illinois based on head-to-head record.
8. Maryland (8 - 10) Defeated Iowa, Michigan State, and Ohio State based on round-robin record.
9. Michigan State (8 - 10) With Iowa, defeated Ohio State and lost to Maryland based on round-robin record. Defeated Iowa based on record against #5 teams.
10. Iowa (8 - 10) With Michigan State, defeated Ohio State and lost to Maryland based on round-robin record. Lost to Michigan State based on record against #5 teams.
11. Ohio State (8 - 10) Lost to Maryland, Iowa, and Michigan State based on round-robin record.
12. Rutgers (2 - 16)
13. Nebraska (1 - 17) Defeated Penn State based on head-to-head record.
14. Penn State (1 - 17) Lost to Nebraska based on head-to-head record.

 

 

 

Edited December 21, 2016 by huskerbaseball13

[49r]

Pomeroy says 6-12

 

Wed Dec 28		15	Indiana	L, 78-63	69	9%	Away		×
Sun Jan 1		63	Maryland	L, 72-64	68	25%	Away		×
Thu Jan 5		68	Iowa	W, 76-75	73	52%	Home		×
Sun Jan 8		43	Northwestern	L, 68-66	67	43%	Home		×
Sat Jan 14		28	Michigan	L, 69-57	61	15%	Away		×
Wed Jan 18		36	Ohio St.	L, 68-65	68	38%	Home		×
Sat Jan 21		117	Rutgers	L, 67-64	66	40%	Away		×
Thu Jan 26		43	Northwestern	L, 71-62	67	19%	Away		×
Sun Jan 29		12	Purdue	L, 74-66	69	22%	Home		×
Thu Feb 2		56	Michigan St.	L, 69-68	68	47%	Home		×
Sun Feb 5		68	Iowa	L, 78-71	73	26%	Away		×
Thu Feb 9		10	Wisconsin	L, 68-60	63	23%	Home		×
Tue Feb 14		106	Penn St.	W, 73-69	73	66%	Home		×
Sat Feb 18		36	Ohio St.	L, 72-61	68	16%	Away		×
Thu Feb 23		56	Michigan St.	L, 72-64	68	22%	Away		×
Sun Feb 26		66	Illinois	W, 67-66	67	52%	Home		×
Thu Mar 2		47	Minnesota	L, 72-63	70	20%	Away		×
Sun Mar 5		28	Michigan	L, 65-61	61	36%	Home		×
Projected record:								12-18	6-12

 

[Nebrasketballer]

That would probably be the final straw.

 

Nebraska is currently 6-6, so if they go 5-13 or 6-12 in the Big Ten, that puts them at 11-19 or 12-18. Not even close to .500 on the season. I don't see any way that Eichorst could go another season without making a change.

[throwback]

I'd say there's 2 or 3 excellent teams, 2 or 3 really good teams after that, and then a lot of muddle in the middle. Whole lot of teams that feel like 7-11/8-10/9-9 type teams. Impossible to say how it will shake out in the middle, just too many evenly matched teams that have had a lot of ups and downs so far. Lots of inconsistency for a lot of B1G teams. 

 

Someone is going to get hot out of that middle group and make the NCAAs. Probably won't be NU ... but I wouldn't mind having 2014 all over again.

 

Probably only one thing I'm feeling pretty confident about - we don't go 1-17.

Edited December 21, 2016 by throwback

[jimmykc]

I'll go out on a limb and predict that Purdue will not go 17-1 and neither NU or Penn St. will go 1-17 this year.

[huskerbaseball13]

2 minutes ago, jimmykc said:

I'll go out on a limb and predict that Purdue will not go 17-1 and neither NU or Penn St. will go 1-17 this year.

 

Yeah, I'd say Kenpom is more accurate at this point. 

[huskerbaseball13]

22 minutes ago, 49r said:

Pomeroy says 6-12

 

Wed Dec 28		15	Indiana	L, 78-63	69	9%	Away		×
Sun Jan 1		63	Maryland	L, 72-64	68	25%	Away		×
Thu Jan 5		68	Iowa	W, 76-75	73	52%	Home		×
Sun Jan 8		43	Northwestern	L, 68-66	67	43%	Home		×
Sat Jan 14		28	Michigan	L, 69-57	61	15%	Away		×
Wed Jan 18		36	Ohio St.	L, 68-65	68	38%	Home		×
Sat Jan 21		117	Rutgers	L, 67-64	66	40%	Away		×
Thu Jan 26		43	Northwestern	L, 71-62	67	19%	Away		×
Sun Jan 29		12	Purdue	L, 74-66	69	22%	Home		×
Thu Feb 2		56	Michigan St.	L, 69-68	68	47%	Home		×
Sun Feb 5		68	Iowa	L, 78-71	73	26%	Away		×
Thu Feb 9		10	Wisconsin	L, 68-60	63	23%	Home		×
Tue Feb 14		106	Penn St.	W, 73-69	73	66%	Home		×
Sat Feb 18		36	Ohio St.	L, 72-61	68	16%	Away		×
Thu Feb 23		56	Michigan St.	L, 72-64	68	22%	Away		×
Sun Feb 26		66	Illinois	W, 67-66	67	52%	Home		×
Thu Mar 2		47	Minnesota	L, 72-63	70	20%	Away		×
Sun Mar 5		28	Michigan	L, 65-61	61	36%	Home		×
Projected record:								12-18	6-12

 

 

Team Rankings has us at 5-13.  T-Rank has us at 6-12.  Seems most computer models have us around that range.  Can this team surprise and get to 9 wins?

[49r]

4 minutes ago, huskerbaseball13 said:

 

Team Rankings has us at 5-13.  T-Rank has us at 6-12.  Seems most computer models have us around that range.  Can this team surprise and get to 9 wins?

 

According to Sagarin there's about 3% shot of that happening right now (edited to add, this doesn't factor the Mary game so 9 conference wins would mean 14-15 below):

 

Final Record	Expected RPI	Probability
18-11	27.5	0.02%
17-12	31.3	0.09%
16-13	44.2	0.21%
15-14	55.0	1.10%
14-15	66.0	3.30%
13-16	79.9	7.40%
12-17	94.9	13.78%
11-18	110.5	19.67%
10-19	127.4	21.68%
9-20	144.4	17.46%
8-21	161.1	10.22%
7-22	177.1	4.00%
6-23	193.5	0.97%
5-24	211.8	0.09%

Edited December 21, 2016 by 49r

[khoock]

I say 7-9 wins. We aren't as bad as we thought after the GW loss. And to be fair we aren't as good as we thought after the Dayton win and UCLA loss.

 

[HuskerFever]

36 minutes ago, huskerbaseball13 said:

12. Rutgers (2 - 16)

 

HOW IS THIS EVEN ACCURATE?? RUTGERS IS THE BEST TEAM IN THE BIG TEN RIGHT NOW!

 

(...or so I've gathered from reading their message board one time last week.)

[uneblinstu]

It's gonna come down to whether or not they can find three wins on the road. That's going to be a huge challenge. Rutgers, Northwestern and Minnesota are the best chance there. Maryland might be a game you could sneak out a win.

[49r]

Minnesota might be better than you think.

 

Sidenote...man I wish our team would have played their non-con schedule, it's perfect for getting young players some confidence:

 

Fri Nov 11	71	118	Louisiana Lafayette	W, 86-74	79		Home	1-0
Mon Nov 14	69	64	UT Arlington	W, 84-67	73		Home	2-0
Wed Nov 16	67	275	Mount St. Mary's	W, 80-56	73		Home	3-0
Fri Nov 18	65	136	St. John's	W, 92-86	81		Home	4-0
Tue Nov 22	67	44	Arkansas	W, 85-71	74		Home	5-0
Fri Nov 25	60	182	Southern Illinois	W, 57-45	65		Home	6-0
Mon Nov 28	60	27	Florida St.	L, 75-67	78		Away	6-1
Sat Dec 3	57	77	Vanderbilt	W, 56-52	65		Neutral	7-1
Tue Dec 6	51	208	NJIT	W, 74-68	73		Home	8-1
Fri Dec 9	54	145	Georgia Southern	W, 86-49	71		Home	9-1
Sun Dec 11	48	162	Northern Illinois	W, 77-57	71		Home	10-1
Wed Dec 14	47	290	LIU Brooklyn	W, 76-66	68		Home	11-1
Fri Dec 23		128	Arkansas St.	W, 76-65	70	84%	Home

 

But we didn't know we would be down a senior when ours was made.  C'est La Vie.  Anyway, KenPom has Minnesota going 9-9 in the B1G, and if they do that, they're a shoo-in for the dance I would think.

[HuskerFever]

Is it bad that the least I want out of this season is to just beat Maryland and Michigan once? It's starting to be a broken record every year that "Nebraska hasn't beat [Maryland/Michigan] since joining the Big Ten."

[nustudent]

I can see 3 wins.   I can see 10 wins.   You don't know what to expect from this squad and there is enough parity in the league this year that a team like ours can make a run if guys like Gill and Horne can find a rythm

Edited December 21, 2016 by nustudent

[hskr4life]

Lay place team in Big 10 wins at least 4 games.  Mark it down.

[PimpMario]

If we lose 18-20 this year I wouldn't be too sad to see a change.

[nustudent]

43 minutes ago, PimpMario said:

If we lose 18-20 this year I wouldn't be too sad to see a change.

 

Think you have too at that point

[HuskerFever]

Believe it or not, we're tied for first in the Big Ten right now!

[tcp]

even before G-W, I thought this team was probably no better than 7 wins, no worse than 5. I think that's still pretty true. this conference is going to be filthy this season. no real title contenders, but virtually no scrubs, either.

 

[uneblinstu]

29 minutes ago, tcp said:

 no real title contenders, but virtually no scrubs, either.

 

If this is true, and Nebraska is included in that number, then they could absolutely do better than 7 wins.

[tcp]

4 minutes ago, uneblinstu said:

If this is true, and Nebraska is included in that number, then they could absolutely do better than 7 wins.

 

Ack. Me and my deeply embedded 16 game schedule-itis. Thanks for reminding me that we go 18 in the B1G

Yes, I think I would bump this up 1 on both ends.

Edited December 21, 2016 by tcp

[uneblinstu]

Well, I'd still contend that if the B1G is as murky as a lot of people say, and Nebraska is somewhere in the middle of that, it's exceptionally difficult to project where they end up. I think the range is closer to 11 to 4.

[Red Rum]

16-2

Go big or go home
yolo

[Noah121]

1 hour ago, Red Rum said:

16-2

Go big or go home
yolo

 

Are the two losses the "autoloss" matchups? Who would we lose to and why?

[ShortDust]

I can totally see this team on both sides of the spectrum, but in the end I think they get 7-8. I feel like a surprise road win will happen and a home blunder will happen as well.

Edited December 22, 2016 by ShortDust