Bracketology 2024/2025

[millerhusker]

1-3-1 Bracketology moved us from the third 9 seed all the way down to…. The fourth 9 seed today. I like that 

[GhostOfJoeMcCray]

If anything, most Husker fans are way too negative about our chances overreacting to last night. 

 

I saw this on twitter: The first six teams out of the projected bracket via BracketMatrix are a combined 7-52 in Quadrant 1 games...we have 6 Quad 1 wins by ourselves. The bubble is pathetically bad this year. 

 

3+ regular-season wins: you can throw a Selection Show party because we're just waiting to see who we play and where we go

2 regular-season wins: enough that you can feel pretty good, but have something ready to throw at your TV if we get left out because we probably got screwed 

0-1 regular-season win: we've put ourselves in an awful situation and deserve whatever fate we get

[HuskerFever]

20 minutes ago, GhostOfJoeMcCray said:

 

There are way too many good bracketologists (without Nebraska bias) out there now to not have a pretty darn good idea of where we stand, and I'm not talking about Lunardi or Palm. For example, the cumulative Bracketmatrix nailed all the 1-4 seeds in the committee top 16 reveal. Some guys put as much work into it each week as they do at their jobs (T3 and JBR on Twitter for example). We ended up last year right about where most of the really good ones thought we would. In my opinion, it has never been easier to know relatively where you stand.

 

1-16 is the easy part. It's the lower 32 non-autobids that are left up to committee interpretation (and a moving target every year). The committee doesn't follow an equation.

 

I'll keep a closer eye, but there's a difference between accuracy of bracket predictions in February than it is the evening of March 16.

[GhostOfJoeMcCray]

Just now, HuskerFever said:

 

1-16 is the easy part. It's the lower 32 non-autobids that are left up to committee interpretation (and a moving target every year). The committee doesn't follow an equation.

 

I'll keep a closer eye, but there's a difference between accuracy of bracket predictions in February than it is the evening of March 16.

 

Well yes because there are still a lot of games to be played. Bracketologists are projecting if the season ended today. If the season ended today, we should feel really good. But it doesn't, so we need to keep winning games to stay in brackets. 

[cozrulz]

Feels like if we get the Michigan game we will be pretty close to in.  Probably would get a solid look even just getting at Ohio State.  I think two and we are in without bubble anxiety.  Hoping we win at least three and get some momentum.

Edited Thursday at 11:07 PM by cozrulz

[HuskerActuary]

If we have 19 wins on Selection Sunday, there will be anxiety. I think we'd be in, but there would be a lot of anxiety.

[thrasher31]

OSU losing today in the fashion they did helps us. They have two West coast games before we go to Columbus. We'll see how they look around that time. 

[AuroranHusker]

Just now, thrasher31 said:

OSU losing today in the fashion they did helps us. They have two West coast games before we go to Columbus. We'll see how they look around that time. 

 

[Nebrasketball1979]

20 minutes ago, thrasher31 said:

OSU losing today in the fashion they did helps us. They have two West coast games before we go to Columbus. We'll see how they look around that time. 

I will just keep reiterating how weak the bubble is.  This isn't Nebraska bias.  Our resume is so much better than most everyone on the bubble.  Two more regular season wins and we are in.  Believe 

[hskr4life]

Vandy, Oklahoma, Wake, Arkansas

 

The last 4 collective teams in on bracket matrix. Go look at those resumes and you’d be surprised how good ours looks.

Edited Friday at 04:33 AM by hskr4life

[Silverbacked1]

One game at a time.

[thrasher31]

9 hours ago, Nebrasketball1979 said:

I will just keep reiterating how weak the bubble is.  This isn't Nebraska bias.  Our resume is so much better than most everyone on the bubble.  Two more regular season wins and we are in.  Believe 

Take care of business coming up vs Minnesota and Iowa and they should be fine. Minnesota is sneaky good too. Shockingly have 6 big ten wins. Ben Johnson is doing such a good fucking job given his departures this off-season. And being without one of his big portal acquisitions in Tyler Cochran

[hskr4life]

3 hours ago, thrasher31 said:

Take care of business coming up vs Minnesota and Iowa and they should be fine. Minnesota is sneaky good too. Shockingly have 6 big ten wins. Ben Johnson is doing such a good fucking job given his departures this off-season. And being without one of his big portal acquisitions in Tyler Cochran

Dude deserves another year if he can make the B1G tournament. Especially with how they started conference play. They looked dead in the water.

[Nebrasketball1979]

As another data point, Fan Duel has the odds of Nebraska making the tournament at -490.  Meaning, you have to wager $490 to win a measly $100.  This is an implied probability of 83% of Nebraska making the tournament according to one book in Vegas.  Conversely, if you would like an emotional hedge, you can also wager on Nebraska not making the NCAA tournament at +325 odds.  

 

We're in good shape.  Beat Michigan on Monday and this becomes close to a moot point.  Lose to Michigan and then beat the teams you should.  I think most of us would have signed up for this scenario at the beginning of the year!  

[thrasher31]

6 minutes ago, hskr4life said:

Dude deserves another year if he can make the B1G tournament. Especially with how they started conference play. They looked dead in the water.

I'll be pretty upset if he doesn't get another year. Made the best out of a pretty crappy roster. Considering they're only half a game behind us, I'd definitely keep him. Minnesotas issue I think is the people above him and the NIL funding 

[LincecumFan]

Speaking of former Nebraska coaches, I hope Kenya Hunter gets a head coaching gig somewhere. Another good dude that deserves a shot.

[Art Vandalay]

Seems like it should be a good night for us beside Illinois. Ore st got win 20, St Mary got Gonzaga again, Ore wins, and numerous bubble teams lose. Get that win Monday and we will be sitting really well.

[millerhusker]

7 hours ago, Art Vandalay said:

Seems like it should be a good night for us beside Illinois. Ore st got win 20, St Mary got Gonzaga again, Ore wins, and numerous bubble teams lose. Get that win Monday and we will be sitting really well.

I feel more nervous now than 24 hours ago. Bubble teams BYU, Vandy, Oklahoma, Arkansas, Utah St all got really big, quality wins. Ohio St is looking like it’ll stay a quad 2 win and Illinois is at risk of falling to quad 2 if they keep floundering. Our quality wins are getting less quality. Looking at schedules going forward, I think Ohio State misses the dance. And Illinois could very much be on the bubble on selection Sunday. How many 15 loss teams have earned an at-large bid?
 

USC dropped three spots without playing and they could end up quad 3, along with Rutgers. If we don’t beat Michigan and/or Ohio State, there’s a real possibility we end up with 3 or 4 quad 1 wins and two quad 3 losses. In that scenario, don’t think there will be much hope on selection Sunday. As you said, just win Monday and most of these worries go away. 

Edited 7 hours ago by millerhusker

[Art Vandalay]

3 hours ago, millerhusker said:

I feel more nervous now than 24 hours ago. Bubble teams BYU, Vandy, Oklahoma, Arkansas, Utah St all got really big, quality wins. Ohio St is looking like it’ll stay a quad 2 win and Illinois is at risk of falling to quad 2 if they keep floundering. Our quality wins are getting less quality. Looking at schedules going forward, I think Ohio State misses the dance. And Illinois could very much be on the bubble on selection Sunday. How many 15 loss teams have earned an at-large bid?
 

USC dropped three spots without playing and they could end up quad 3, along with Rutgers. If we don’t beat Michigan and/or Ohio State, there’s a real possibility we end up with 3 or 4 quad 1 wins and two quad 3 losses. In that scenario, don’t think there will be much hope on selection Sunday. As you said, just win Monday and most of these worries go away. 

Very good points. I’m not to worried about Illini yet. If they beat Iowa at home (jinx off) they should stay Q1 so I think we will have 5 Q1 wins which is still better than most of those bubble teams behind. I still feel pretty confident with 2 more wins but would not call it a lock by any means.

 

I’m sure there will be a lot of changes in these last 2 weeks so we better just take care of our own business and win our way in.

[unl]

Michigan and Ohio state are Q1 opportunities. Would Iowa be Q2?

 

Just win.