What should Nebraska's real seed be?

[big red22]

 

Above I attached a link to a thread I made.  I could not figure out how to post the chart I wanted to share so I just decided to post it there and share the link 

 

Basically I'd like to get some discussion going about how people feel we get treated when it comes to bracketologists.  I think they do not give Nebraska their due, and the chart I shared proves it.  Not only should Nebraska be ranked higher than Michigan State... they probably should be higher than Northwestern and Wisconsin (Although pretty close to Wisconsin IMO).

 

I think without the Falsehood rankings of the BPI and NET, Michigan State's play on the court would have them out of the Tournament without a doubt.  I already hate the selection committee for what they did to us in 2018, but if they somehow put us lower than Michigan State I will lose all faith in how the Selection Committee does their process.  I will also guarantee that they base a lot from the Name on the Jersey.  

Edited March 11, 2024 by hhcmatt
added the chart

[cornfed24-7]

Spit balling right now I say we're a 5-7 seed.

[TourneyBound]

id say 7-8 seed. link wouldn't work for me

[hskr4life]

Link didn’t work for me.  I’d say we’re an 8 with an outside shot at a 7 in current standing.  A semi-final appearance may grab us that 7 and a B10 Championship may get us to a 6.  But that 6 is stretching it and probable our ceiling.  9-10 is probably the basement with a loss Friday.

 

I think we need to be careful calling certain rankings “falsehood” as each ranking serves its purpose in the overall picture of a team.  If metrics were reversed and SOR was in the 30s-40s with BPI being in the 20’s, would we complain that the SOR is a bad metric or praise the BPI?

 

There’s a reason the committee meets for like 5 straight days while determining the bracket.  Theres a lot of info out there that they need to discuss when it comes to teams in the field and seeding of teams.  
 

I think most legit bracketologists do look at the entire picture.  And while our resume is really good, it does have some warts.  Non-Con SOS, loss to Rutgers (even though it’s Q2), road record/lack of neutral site games to name a few.

 

There are bracketologists out there that most likely don’t look at all the metrics and team sheets due to sheer time.  However, I don’t think our resume in current state deserves anything above a 7 and that 7 is stretching it.

There’s a slim margin for us though.  Had we beat Minny and Rutgers, we’re probably looking at a 5-6 seed and throw in Illinois with those two and a Top 4 protected seed isn’t out of the question.

[Bugeaters1]

I see the chart.

 

[hhcmatt]

If you're trying to make an argument for Nebraska to have higher than a 9 seed, the argument isn't how they compare to other B1G conference teams....it's how they compare against teams that are projected higher than them.

 

Otherwise, how is Washington St projected as a 6 seed when an argument being presented here is that teams without recent success are being penalized?

[hhcmatt]

Just now, Bugeaters1 said:

I see the chart.

 

 

I added it in

[Vinny]

There really is a giant cluster of teams with little separation after about the top 10-12. A lot of teams with 9-11 losses, a handful of good wins and one or less bad losses. These are the 4-10 seeds. We fall into this category. Is it better to be a 6 seed and beat 9 seed? Or be a 9 seed and beat a 6 seed? 
 

I guess I basically see us as in the tourney, and likely playing another team with a very similar resume to ours that we just have to go beat, whether we’re the higher or lower seed. It’s not like we can climb to a 3 seed at this point and draw a very favorable matchup in the first round.

[jayschool]

On the 8/9 line with a chance to move up to 7 with a couple more wins.

[GhostOfJoeMcCray]

I was actually working on some research over the weekend and this is a great thread to share. 

 

Nebraska Resume Average = 25

2023 Power Conference Teams with similar Resume Average:
Missouri 22.5 - 7 seed
Miami 22.5 - 5 seed
Iowa State 26 - 6 seed
Kentucky 26.5 - 6 seed
TCU 30 - 6 seed
Michigan State 30 - 7 seed

 

2022 Power Conference Teams with similar Resume Average
Michigan State 24.5 - 7 seed
LSU 25 - 6 seed
USC 26 - 7 seed
North Carolina 26.5 - 8 seed
Texas 29.5 6 seed

Nebraska Predictive Average = 35

2023 Power Conference Teams with similar Predictive Average
Michigan State 33 - 7 seed
Iowa 33.3 - 8 seed
Miami 37 - 5 seed

 

2022 Power Conference Teams with similar Predictive Average
Indiana 32.7 - 12 seed (had resume average of 52)
Michigan State 33 - 7 seed
Seton Hall 34.3 - 8 seed
USC 37.3 - 7 seed

 

And for what it's worth, we are 24 in Bart Torvik's overall ranking right now. The teams in that range last year on Selection Sunday were:

22 Texas A&M - 7 seed
23 Auburn - 9 seed
24 Kansas State - 3 seed
25 FAU - 9 seed
26 TCU - 6 seed
27 Virginia - 4 seed

 

I did not look into these teams nonconference SOS for example, which would hurt us. But in the research I've done, the NCAA official seed list most closely mimics the Strength of Record metric than anything else, and the seed list generally falls much more in line with the Resume Average than the Predictive Average (Resume Average had a differential average of about 3.85 from the official seed, while Predictive Average had a differential average of about 7.74). 

 

And Strength of Record is our best metric. I think people might be surprised where we end up. Our SOR and Resume Average are in the 6-7 range. Even if they punish us more for the non-conference SOS (which the metrics are already supposed to have factored in your strength of opponent), 8-9 right now at worst. 10 is laughable to me, given all the information above. Our numbers are pretty dang good. 

 

Speaking of being 24 in Bart Torvik, in 2023 Kansas State (24 BT, Elite 8)...FAU (25 BT, Final Four)...in 2022, Michigan (27 BT, Sweet 16)...North Carolina (28 BT, Finals)...2021, Arkansas (25 BT, Elite 8)...UCLA (30 BT, Final Four)...   OK getting ahead of myself now :) 
 

Edited March 11, 2024 by GhostOfJoeMcCray

[millerhusker]

25 minutes ago, hhcmatt said:

If you're trying to make an argument for Nebraska to have higher than a 9 seed, the argument isn't how they compare to other B1G conference teams....it's how they compare against teams that are projected higher than them.

 

Otherwise, how is Washington St projected as a 6 seed when the argument being presented here is that teams without recent success are being penalized?

That’s exactly right. And that’s also why I think the bracketologists are wrong. Why is WSU a 6 seed when their SOR is 35, BPI is 44, kenpom is 45, NET is 45, etc. All of Nebraska’s metrics are quite a bit better. It’s because they’ve had more national exposure/hype this year, have been ranked in the top 25 and bracket experts are lazy. Lunardi even said he doesn’t go through all of the resumes very often. The committee will have them as an 8 or 9 seed most likely. And they are just one example. The committee doesn’t care what Nebraska has or hasn’t done in the past. They aren’t out to get Nebraska. Michigan State won’t be a 5 seed just because they’re Michigan State. They might have to go to Dayton. I’m pretty sure we’ll be seeded appropriately. 

[OmahaHusker]

8-9 seed. 

 

7 is ceiling, but only think a 7 is attainable if they won the B1G tourney. Just too many teams to leapfrog this late in the game. 

[BugeaterZ]

14 minutes ago, OmahaHusker said:

8-9 seed. 

 

7 is ceiling, but only think a 7 is attainable if they won the B1G tourney. Just too many teams to leapfrog this late in the game. 

I disagree 7 is yhe ceiling. Neutral court wins over Indiana, Illinois, and Purdue,  the last 2 top 10 teams, and I think a 5 seed is likely. Two quad 1a wins on bracket weekend would push us up a ton with how bunched things are.

 

I don't think the above is happening,  as much as I'd love to test my theory.

[Bugeaters1]

8 or 9 seed.

Edited March 11, 2024 by Bugeaters1

[OmahaHusker]

8 minutes ago, BugeaterZ said:

I disagree 7 is yhe ceiling. Neutral court wins over Indiana, Illinois, and Purdue,  the last 2 top 10 teams, and I think a 5 seed is likely. Two quad 1a wins on bracket weekend would push us up a ton with how bunched things are.

 

I don't think the above is happening,  as much as I'd love to test my theory.

 

They have most the seeds decided on and bracket set by the end of Friday. Most weight is put on what you did in the regular season. Only last minute changes they make are for bid stealers that were never projected in the field. 

Edited March 11, 2024 by OmahaHusker

[BugeaterZ]

4 minutes ago, OmahaHusker said:

 

They have most the seeds decided on and bracket set by the end of Friday. Most weight is put on what you did in the regular season. Only last minute changes they make are for bid stealers that were never projected in the field. 

You may be right, but it that sounds extremely lazy. Not that hard to make adjustments of a seed line for a handful of teams each day in a case like this. Say Wisconsin or Michigan St lose on Thursday and Nebraska or Northwestern win the B1G tournament...you can't swap the seeds because you were pretty much done? 

 

Not just lazy, but negligent. How many games are there Sunday before the announcement? I checked, it's 5. Not very many and plenty of time to make adjustments and if/then decisions before those games are done.

[cozrulz]

just win

[hskr4life]

15 minutes ago, OmahaHusker said:

 

They have most the seeds decided on and bracket set by the end of Friday. Most weight is put on what you did in the regular season. Only last minute changes they make are for bid stealers that were never projected in the field. 

I think they have the majority of the field picked by Friday night… however, I don’t believe final seeds are set by then.  They may have an initial round of seeding done, but they will make line changes through Saturday and possibly into Sunday as well.

[big red22]

25 minutes ago, BugeaterZ said:

I disagree 7 is yhe ceiling. Neutral court wins over Indiana, Illinois, and Purdue,  the last 2 top 10 teams, and I think a 5 seed is likely. Two quad 1a wins on bracket weekend would push us up a ton with how bunched things are.

 

I don't think the above is happening,  as much as I'd love to test my theory.

I am going to Minneapolis so that would be amazing!  Bringing my 16yr old son with me so the old pocket book is saying "I'm alright if they lose, could save me a little money".  The heart is saying LFG!

[HuskerFever]

It's also important to state that this is the time of the year where just about every bubble team has key win opportunities to improve their resume. We're not alone in that.

[millerhusker]

48 minutes ago, OmahaHusker said:

Just too many teams to leapfrog this late in the game. 

Is this based on the bracketologist predictions? Our metrics don't really need to leapfrog anyone to be considered for a 7 seed. 

[REDZONEDAN]

8/9 seed currently with a ceiling of 7 seed.

[big red22]

1 hour ago, hhcmatt said:

If you're trying to make an argument for Nebraska to have higher than a 9 seed, the argument isn't how they compare to other B1G conference teams....it's how they compare against teams that are projected higher than them.

 

Otherwise, how is Washington St projected as a 6 seed when an argument being presented here is that teams without recent success are being penalized?

Basically what I am saying is I think Nebraska should be the 3rd highest seed coming out of the Big 10

Edited March 11, 2024 by big red22

[BugeaterZ]

24 minutes ago, HuskerFever said:

It's also important to state that this is the time of the year where just about every bubble team has key win opportunities to improve their resume. We're not alone in that.

I acknowledge this and my unstated point is that most won't change their resume much. The few that do, should be rewarded.  Substantially if appropriate. Two top 10 wins would qualify

[big red22]

2 hours ago, hskr4life said:

Link didn’t work for me.  I’d say we’re an 8 with an outside shot at a 7 in current standing.  A semi-final appearance may grab us that 7 and a B10 Championship may get us to a 6.  But that 6 is stretching it and probable our ceiling.  9-10 is probably the basement with a loss Friday.

 

I think we need to be careful calling certain rankings “falsehood” as each ranking serves its purpose in the overall picture of a team.  If metrics were reversed and SOR was in the 30s-40s with BPI being in the 20’s, would we complain that the SOR is a bad metric or praise the BPI?

 

There’s a reason the committee meets for like 5 straight days while determining the bracket.  Theres a lot of info out there that they need to discuss when it comes to teams in the field and seeding of teams.  
 

I think most legit bracketologists do look at the entire picture.  And while our resume is really good, it does have some warts.  Non-Con SOS, loss to Rutgers (even though it’s Q2), road record/lack of neutral site games to name a few.

 

There are bracketologists out there that most likely don’t look at all the metrics and team sheets due to sheer time.  However, I don’t think our resume in current state deserves anything above a 7 and that 7 is stretching it.

There’s a slim margin for us though.  Had we beat Minny and Rutgers, we’re probably looking at a 5-6 seed and throw in Illinois with those two and a Top 4 protected seed isn’t out of the question.

Falsehood =

 

- 18-13 team with a 3-7 away record

- A 1-2 Neutral Court Record

- An 8-13 Record against Quad 1/Quad 2 

- Lost Heads up to multiple Teams Below them with a better resume

 

That is NOT a #19 Resume and any Metric that continues to keep a team there due to close losses in tough games is a Metric that I believe should never be a focal point of the Committee.

 

Edit - If Nebraska was 18-13 with a 3-7 Road record and finished the season 1-4 with losses to mediocre Ohio State and Iowa teams at home.  Do you think there is any way possible that they would be a #19 anywhere?

 

Edited March 11, 2024 by big red22