Games Of Note/Bubble Watch 2024

[hskr4life]

18 minutes ago, Ron Mexico said:

Maybe it's because I won't believe it until I see it mentality, but I think we have work to do and some of the bracketology sites don't think we will make it, or they give us very low odds of making the tournament.

Team Rankings is one of those sites.

Nebraska Cornhuskers: Results, Picks, Power Rankings, Odds & Stats on TeamRankings.com

Lol this site says we only have a 30ish percent chance to dance at 23 wins.

 

That would be a 23-7, 13-7 record.  That would mean at minimum 3 road wins if we won out at home.

 

Wouldn't put much stock into this one.  Here is a list of the best bracketology sites of the past 5 years.

 

http://www.bracketmatrix.com/rankings.html

[Dead Dog Alley]

9 hours ago, hskr4life said:

Lol this site says we only have a 30ish percent chance to dance at 23 wins.

 

That would be a 23-7, 13-7 record.  That would mean at minimum 3 road wins if we won out at home.

 

Wouldn't put much stock into this one.  Here is a list of the best bracketology sites of the past 5 years.

 

http://www.bracketmatrix.com/rankings.html

 

Team Rankings has an algorithm that has passed the test of time.

 

In their data analysis there is a line:

IF (teamname="Nebraska") THEN ("They ain't gonna make it, no explanation needed")

 

[hskr4life]

1 minute ago, Dead Dog Alley said:

 

Team Rankings has an algorithm that has passed the test of time.

 

In their data analysis there is a line:

IF (teamname="Nebraska") THEN ("They ain't gonna make it, no explanation needed")

 

 

I mean-- isn't that in every predictive metric?  LOL

 

To be fair, they are 169/174 in average of brackets the past five years so that means there are 5 bracketologists WORSE than that.

[hskr4life]

Got sick Saturday into Sunday, so I missed yesterday's/today's update... So I'll just pick it up from here.

 

Results (2/4/24): Sad sad day for Husker fans as that would have been an awesome win.  Providence forgot they had a game today.  I think I saw somewhere that they had 6 made shots like 5 minutes into the second half.  Woof.

• Big 10 Games
  • Purdue 75 @ Wisconsin 69
  • Nebraska 84 @ Illinois 87
• Non-Con Opponents Games
  • Rider 93 @ Iona 94
• Other Bubble Games
  • Providence 50 @ Villanova 68

 

Games To Watch (2/5/24): Big one for KSU tomorrow and would be nice if they could pull out a W at home.  Also a big bubbly game as Miami still has some aspirations at Dancing.  

• Big 10 Games
  • NONE
• Non-Con Opponents Games
  • Coppin State @ South Carolina St
  • Florida A&M @ Alabama State
  • Kansas @ Kansas State
• Other Bubble Games
  • Miami @ Virginia

[nustudent]

I don’t think we have to do anything remarkable to make it.   Just win what we should.   Take care of business at home.  Win at Michigan.   That avoids any quad 3 losses and puts us at 21-10.   

[HuskerFever]

4 hours ago, nustudent said:

I don’t think we have to do anything remarkable to make it.   Just win what we should.   Take care of business at home.  Win at Michigan.   That avoids any quad 3 losses and puts us at 21-10.   

 

Still puts exposure and a pretty big target on our back for not proving we can win on the road.

 

It may make zero difference. But it is a pretty glaring thing the committee could latch onto. Win a couple on the road and we start to squash that conversation.

[hskr4life]

6 minutes ago, HuskerFever said:

 

Still puts exposure and a pretty big target on our back for not proving we can win on the road.

 

It may make zero difference. But it is a pretty glaring thing the committee could latch onto. Win a couple on the road and we start to squash that conversation.

Maybe, but win at Michigan and we also have a road win at KSU and 1 (or possibly more depending on B1G tourney) neutral site wins.

[Art Vandalay]

8 minutes ago, HuskerFever said:

 

Still puts exposure and a pretty big target on our back for not proving we can win on the road.

 

It may make zero difference. But it is a pretty glaring thing the committee could latch onto. Win a couple on the road and we start to squash that conversation.

Think MD got in easy last year with like 1 road win

[nustudent]

15 hours ago, HuskerFever said:

 

Still puts exposure and a pretty big target on our back for not proving we can win on the road.

 

It may make zero difference. But it is a pretty glaring thing the committee could latch onto. Win a couple on the road and we start to squash that conversation.

If we do that...we'd have 2 road wins and 1 neutral site win (before the Big 10 tournament).

 

And all metrics that are actually criteria are solid.  If the committee is going to make stuff up, we can't control that.   And let's not pretend that other teams in our seeding area/bubble (10-12 seeds) are exactly dynamic on the road either.

Edited February 6 by nustudent

[Huskerpapa]

31 minutes ago, nustudent said:

If we do that...we'd have 2 road wins and 1 neutral site win (before the Big 10 tournament).

 

And all metrics that are actually criteria are solid.  If the committee is going to make stuff up, we can't control that.   And let's not pretend that other teams in our seeding area/bubble (10-12 seeds) are exactly dynamic on the road either.

Welcome back nu - haven't heard from you for awhile, or so it seems.

[hskr4life]

Results (2/5/24): Big win for KSU and Virginia is firmly in the field now, if they weren't already.  Seeing them hop us in a lot of brackets as well.

• Big 10 Games
  • NONE
• Non-Con Opponents Games
  • Coppin State 65 @ South Carolina St 77
  • Florida A&M 53 @ Alabama State 62
  • Kansas 70 @ Kansas State 75
• Other Bubble Games
  • Miami 38 @ Virginia 60

 

Games To Watch (2/6/24): I've bolded the bubbly teams that we probably want to lose below.  A few games that wouldn't move the needle much with a win, but would be a killer loss tonight (St. Johns, Wake Forest).  There are a few teams in a little bit of a tailspin and a few more losses could continue knocking them down into bubble territory (Clemson, Oklahoma).  St. Mary's can't afford a loss to anyone other than Gonzaga.  Boise, while strong start to MWC play, is bubbly with a few losses that creep up.  

• Big 10 Games
  • Rutgers @ Maryland
  • Indiana @ Ohio St
  • Michigan St @ Minnesota
• Non-Con Opponents Games
  • NONE
• Other Bubble Games
  • DePaul @ St. Johns
  • Clemson @ North Carolina
  • Wake Forest @ Georgia Tech
  • Iowa St @ Texas
  • BYU @ Oklahoma
  • Butler @ UCONN
  • Nevada @ Utah St
  • Boise St @ Colorado St
  • St Mary's @ Pacific

[HuskerFever]

8 hours ago, nustudent said:

If we do that...we'd have 2 road wins and 1 neutral site win (before the Big 10 tournament).

 

And all metrics that are actually criteria are solid.  If the committee is going to make stuff up, we can't control that.   And let's not pretend that other teams in our seeding area/bubble (10-12 seeds) are exactly dynamic on the road either.

 

For sure. But not far fetched. I think having two major wins vs. Purdue and Wisconsin change the equation a bit. But we still have more work to close out the season.

 

It makes you wonder had the 2017-2018 team beat Kansas, do they make it in? Maybe? Maybe not?

 

2023-2024: NET 52 Q1 3-4 Q2 3-3 Q3 3-0 Q4 7-0 Road 1-6

 

2017-2018: NET 56 Q1 1-6 Q2 2-3 Q3 9-1 Q4 10-0 Road 4-7

 

Not apples to apples. But we do benefit from a better SOS as well, which I think hurt us back then.

[hskr4life]

Maryland has home shooting splits of 31/11/73 in a home loss to Rutgers tonight.

[cipsucks]

Maybe that loss to Rutgers won't look that bad at season's end.  Especially after the beatdown they have coming in Lincoln.

Edited February 7 by cipsucks

[hskr4life]

9 minutes ago, cipsucks said:

Maybe that loss to Rutgers won't look that bad at season's end.  Especially after the beatdown they have coming in Lincoln.

 

Their new guy they just picked up thanks to him taking the NCAA to court and beating them has bad 12 and 13 his first two games.

[TourneyBound]

Are all 3 road teams going to

win tonight in Big 10???

 

[doc1394]

Call me crazy but I simply don’t think Michigan State is very good 

[Vinny]

21 minutes ago, doc1394 said:

Call me crazy but I simply don’t think Michigan State is very good 

They are now in the bubble conversation. 

[Handy Johnson]

Golden Gophers are suddenly on a Roll. They’ll come into Lincoln expecting to Win. Too Bad that’s NOT gonna happen  

[HuskerActuary]

I'm going to avoid the doing the research myself and piggyback off the wonderful members of this board who have been tracking closely... what is the deal with Michigan State? Looks like they are a possible bubble team and also in danger of falling out of Quad 1 status for us. Do we want them to win to keep Quad 1, or want them to lose to go below us in the bubble pecking order? Odd team, with a good NET ranking but not looking so hot resume-wise.

[jimmykc]

All of this speculation on our post season fate is starting to make me feel like I did during the football season when I began to wonder which bowl we would be going to. And we all know how that ended. For now, let's just concentrate on finishing strong and winning all of the remaining games. Then we will find out what happens.  

[Navin R. Johnson]

7 minutes ago, jimmykc said:

All of this speculation on our post season fate is starting to make me feel like I did during the football season when I began to wonder which bowl we would be going to. And we all know how that ended. For now, let's just concentrate on finishing strong and winning all of the remaining games. Then we will find out what happens.  

 

If only the basketball team had to have a .500 record to make the tournament.

[nustudent]

29 minutes ago, HuskerActuary said:

I'm going to avoid the doing the research myself and piggyback off the wonderful members of this board who have been tracking closely... what is the deal with Michigan State? Looks like they are a possible bubble team and also in danger of falling out of Quad 1 status for us. Do we want them to win to keep Quad 1, or want them to lose to go below us in the bubble pecking order? Odd team, with a good NET ranking but not looking so hot resume-wise.

Win.  We need the Quad 1 win.

[nustudent]

46 minutes ago, Handy Johnson said:

Golden Gophers are suddenly on a Roll. They’ll come into Lincoln expecting to Win. Too Bad that’s NOT gonna happen  

If they keep winning, they could get to a Quad 1 loss/Quad 2 win status for us which will help.  Basically become what we thought we'd have with Indiana.

[hskr4life]

3 minutes ago, nustudent said:

Win.  We need the Quad 1 win.

Not only this but their bubbly profile would most likely be much better than ours.  The predicative metrics (KPom and BPI) love them and their result metrics are only slightly worse than ours.  Combine that with the name on the front, the legendary Izzo, and the fact that everyone knows Izzos teams over perform late… I wouldn’t want our name up there against MSU in a bubble scenario come March.