USC & UCLA TO JOIN BIG TEN (beginning 2024)!

[Jugular]

On 7/2/2022 at 12:10 PM, HuscurAdam said:

I keep seeing the chatter about Oregon joining the B1G, but it is not going to happen (unless we're talking about adding 5+ teams).  These things are being driven primarily by TV ratings and media markets and Oregon doesn't bring much of either to the table. Furthermore, Oregon is neither an AAU member nor an elite academic institution, things I believe the B1G legitimately cares about. Oregon has a nice brand going for it thanks to Nike, but it doesn't translate to big TV ratings and would likely fade with a few down seasons (like NU is experiencing).

 

The people making these decisions are taking a long-term global view of the landscape and Oregon just doesn't fit the bill for the reasons cited.  Here are what I think are the most likely candidates for further B1G expansion:  

 

1 – Notre Dame (No brainer. Not AAU, but elite academically. Dripping with tradition and is a HUGE ratings draw despite small TV market)

2 – Stanford (SF is #6 TV market. Elite academically and a strong national brand name. Very good in all sports, but not elite).

3 – Arizona State (Phoenix is #12 TV market. Close travel partner for LA schools. Not AAU, but solid enough academically to justify)

4 – Washington (Seattle is #14 TV market. Solid program history including a recent CFP appearance and a national title in football.  AAU member.)

5 – Colorado (Denver is #17 TV market. Bridges gap to western schools. Has some FB history including a natty. AAU member with strong academics.)

6 – North Carolina/Duke (would be higher but ACC grant of rights is a big problem for them)

7 – Oregon? (Resides in #81 media market and has middling academics. See above.)

NOTE: I recognize the risk of having to eat my words is Oregon is added, but it would be a terrible choice unless were talking about a 20+ team super conference.

I doubt ASU and CU are even in the discussion. Oregon higher. Add UVA and GT.

[throwback]

At some point we reach diminishing returns by adding more schools. If USC & UCLA cause the TV deal to go from $1 B annually to $1.2 B annually, then that's a win for everyone, going from a share of ~$71 M annually (split 14 ways) to ~$75 M annually (split 16 ways).

 

Does anyone beyond N Dame move the needle that much? I'm not sure. I could see N Dame/Stanford coming in together (adding #6 Bay Area TV market), but other than that, it's hard to imagine anyone else brings in enough money to prevent a shrinking of each slice of the pie everyone receives.

 

If the goal is to bring in as many teams as possible - grabbing territories "Risk" style to keep the SEC from grabbing them - then, sure, you add as many Pac-12 10 teams as possible & you try to fracture the ACC, so you can grab some of them. However, if it's to maximize payouts to conference members, then you have to be choosier.

 

Since FOX is running the show here, they perhaps have the ability to maximize both of those goals.

 

[Nighthawk]

1 hour ago, throwback said:

At some point we reach diminishing returns by adding more schools. If USC & UCLA cause the TV deal to go from $1 B annually to $1.2 B annually, then that's a win for everyone, going from a share of ~$71 M annually (split 14 ways) to ~$75 M annually (split 16 ways).

 

Does anyone beyond N Dame move the needle that much? I'm not sure. I could see N Dame/Stanford coming in together (adding #6 Bay Area TV market), but other than that, it's hard to imagine anyone else brings in enough money to prevent a shrinking of each slice of the pie everyone receives.

 

If the goal is to bring in as many teams as possible - grabbing territories "Risk" style to keep the SEC from grabbing them - then, sure, you add as many Pac-12 10 teams as possible & you try to fracture the ACC, so you can grab some of them. However, if it's to maximize payouts to conference members, then you have to be choosier.

 

Since FOX is running the show here, they perhaps have the ability to maximize both of those goals.

 

If SEC keeps adding we keep adding. Eventually it will be like the NFL with the AFC and the NFC.  Anyone not in the Big 10 or the SEC will be viewed as the NFL views the USFL and the XFL and the CFL. 

[75unlgrad]

It sounds like the Big 12 teams (minus Texas and Oklahoma) and the PAC 12 teams (minus USC and UCLA) are forming a '3rd super conference'.  Good!!  That means the teams in the ACC will be looking for ways to protect themselves.  It makes the ACC conference the most likely to implode.  I know they have an agreement to stay together but good lawyers can find a way to reduce any penalties.  My hope is Notre Dame, North Carolina, Virginia Tech, and Duke move to the BIG 10 (20-team conference) and Clemson, Florida State, Miami, and possible others move to the SEC. 

Just as Notre Dame keeps its traditional rivals in USC, Michigan, Michigan State, and Purdue in football.  North Carolina keeps its main rival in Duke -- especially true for basketball.

I know that football money drives the conference decisions.  I know that conferences are looking for the best football teams.  But there is nothing wrong with creating the best basketball conference in the process.  Be aggressive BIG 10.

[HuskerFever]

The Big Ten is smart enough to realize the way you acquire Notre Dame is by having their key rivals join the conference, something the ACC can't stand behind 

[REDitus]

On 7/5/2022 at 11:02 AM, aphilso1 said:

 

Are you involved with the NSRI UARC?  Asking because that is an obscure enough reference that most people haven't heard of it. Wondering if you and I have met in real life. I worked on establishing it a decade ago, did some other stuff for a bit, and then came back and worked the second UARC contract from 2017-early 2020.

 

I am not involved with UARC and I am not smart enough to travel in those type of circles.  I just have a lot of time on my hands.   I researched the AAU criteria and University rankings a long time ago so that I could participate in discussions and stumbled across it.   

 

It's cool that you helped set it up.    Not as cool as UFO stuff but cool nonetheless. 

[TheNovice]

On 7/5/2022 at 11:02 AM, aphilso1 said:

 

Are you involved with the NSRI UARC?  Asking because that is an obscure enough reference that most people haven't heard of it. Wondering if you and I have met in real life. I worked on establishing it a decade ago, did some other stuff for a bit, and then came back and worked the second UARC contract from 2017-early 2020.

I was around when the UARC was set up and renewed.  And current NSRI head is a season ticket holder sitting a section over from me.  GBR.  

[HuskerFever]

 

[aphilso1]

4 hours ago, TheNovice said:

I was around when the UARC was set up and renewed.  And current NSRI head is a season ticket holder sitting a section over from me.  GBR.  

Hinson is a Nebrasketball fan?!? Somehow I just can’t see that. Or did he retire and someone else is running the show now?

 

edit: this is getting further off topic, so feel free to respond via PM

Edited July 7, 2022 by aphilso1

[throwback]

14 hours ago, HuskerFever said:

 

 

When schools reach out on this topic, I assume Warren's phone system automatically forwards these requests to FOX? Might as well cut out the middleman.

 

[49r]

I would imagine that schools reaching out to the Big Ten HQ would be met with a similar recording as visitors to Magrathea:

 

 

[HuskerFever]

Power 5 quickly went from: ACC, Big 12, Big Ten, Pac-12, and SEC to --

 

Big Ten and SEC, and then everybody else.

 

Big 12 now flexing their bridges for recruiting:

 

 

[jimmykc]

Would that be called A Bridge Too Far?

[Dead Dog Alley]

11 hours ago, HuskerFever said:

Power 5 quickly went from: ACC, Big 12, Big Ten, Pac-12, and SEC to --

 

Big Ten and SEC, and then everybody else.

 

Big 12 now flexing their bridges for recruiting:

 

 

 

Iowa State had as many 9 win football seasons between 1900 and 2022 as Nebraska did between 1900 and 1904.

[HuskerFever]

SEC (allegedly): "We don't care about Notre Dame." / "We'll take value over just adding teams for market"

 

 

[Handy Johnson]

There’s a GREAT Op-Ed in the New York Times today written by an IU alum how this is all bad, really bad…

[HuskerFever]

1 hour ago, Handy Johnson said:

There’s a GREAT Op-Ed in the New York Times today written by an IU alum how this is all bad, really bad…

 

Assuming it's the one titled: "The Big Ten Is Growing, But All I See Is Decline"

 

https://www.nytimes.com/2022/07/14/opinion/usc-ucla-big-ten.html

[cipsucks]

3 hours ago, Handy Johnson said:

There’s a GREAT Op-Ed in the New York Times today written by an IU alum how this is all bad, really bad…

 

The NY Times is a pay website.  Too much time in Minnesota, Handy.  Get your ass back to Nebraska before it's too late.

[HuskerFever]

16 minutes ago, cipsucks said:

 

The NY Times is a pay website.  Too much time in Minnesota, Handy.  Get your ass back to Nebraska before it's too late.

 

Insert image of journalists:

 

[Handy Johnson]

42 minutes ago, cipsucks said:

 

The NY Times is a pay website.  Too much time in Minnesota, Handy.  Get your ass back to Nebraska before it's too late.

I’ve been back for awhile Cip, the article laments the loss of the Regional charm College sports had, and how it’s become less interesting because of it…

[HuskerFever]

 

[Handy Johnson]

2 hours ago, HuskerFever said:

 

Why NO love for Colorado or any other of our former Big 8 brethren? If the B1G & SEC each have 20 teams apiece, why not just square off in Round Robin Tournament & be done with it…

[HuskerFever]

1 hour ago, Handy Johnson said:

Why NO love for Colorado or any other of our former Big 8 brethren? If the B1G & SEC each have 20 teams apiece, why not just square off in Round Robin Tournament & be done with it…

 

I joked this whole time that the only way to get Notre Dame to join the conference is to have all of their traditional rivals join the conference.

 

USC and Stanford helps round that out 

[Handy Johnson]

2 hours ago, HuskerFever said:

 

I joked this whole time that the only way to get Notre Dame to join the conference is to have all of their traditional rivals join the conference.

 

USC and Stanford helps round that out 

What about Army & Navy…? 

[kldm64]

On 7/28/2022 at 1:12 PM, Handy Johnson said:

Why NO love for Colorado or any other of our former Big 8 brethren? If the B1G & SEC each have 20 teams apiece, why not just square off in Round Robin Tournament & be done with it…

 

Why would The Big 10 have any love for Colorado just because Nebraska used to play in a conference with them?  You make it sound like Nebraska is the one making all the decisions about who should be added to the Big 10.  Nebraska is just lucky the made the move when they did or else we'd be like every other school hoping someone will take us and we are not that attractive of product.