Nebraska on the Selection Committee Board

[Art Vandalay]

1 minute ago, OmahaHusker said:

 

See I'm on the flip side of this. I actually do think the committee will leave a 22 win Big Ten team out if there's a team from another conference with a couple less total wins but wins over higher quality opponents. A team like UCLA has a tough remaining schedule and might only get to 19 or 20 wins but I think they'd get in over us even at the 22 win mark just with their current resume. The committee loves them some non con wins.

 

I think Delaney and team carry some weight still. I am talking about if it comes down to a mid major or the 8-9th SEC team getting in vs a 5th from the BIG10. I could be dead wrong but you know there is some politics in those committees and the BIG10 is a big player even in a down year.

[OmahaHusker]

5 minutes ago, Art Vandalay said:

 

I think Delaney and team carry some weight still. I am talking about if it comes down to a mid major or the 8-9th SEC team getting in vs a 5th from the BIG10. I could be dead wrong but you know there is some politics in those committees and the BIG10 is a big player even in a down year.

 

Ya that's true. And on the flip side of that argument if it comes down to Bruce Rasmussen having to make the final decision on us we're not getting in haha

[hskr4life]

Also remember that every coach we play says we are a "tough team."

 

Gotta be worth something!  

[Art Vandalay]

24 minutes ago, OmahaHusker said:

 

Ya that's true. And on the flip side of that argument if it comes down to Bruce Rasmussen having to make the final decision on us we're not getting in haha

 

Actually I hope it does, he was very complimentary after that game. I think he even said we look like a tourney team or something but could see your point and he could work against us out of spite as well.

Edited January 23, 2018 by Art Vandalay

[OmahaHusker]

1 minute ago, Art Vandalay said:

 

Actually I hope it does, he was very complimentary after that game. I think he even said we look like a tourney team or something but could see your point and he could work against us out of spite as well.

 

Haha ya I'm just joking. I thought he was very complimentary after that game as well. That man knows his basketball.

[Dead Dog Alley]

4 hours ago, Norm Peterson said:

So, people have been saying it's not such a good thing that we have already played all of the top Big Ten teams and have only lower-tier teams left to play.  The logic is that we have no more chances for major resume-improving wins in the regular season.

 

Here's how that might not be such a bad thing, but stars might have to align a little bit.

 

If I could influence the writing of the season script a bit, taking into consideration probable wins/losses, I'm hoping for something like the following:

 

If we only win 7 more regular season games, this gets us to 21-10 (12-6).  Have to avoid bad losses, so we'd need to beat Rutgers x 2, Iowa, and on the road at Illinois. All of this is doable.

 

IF that's how it happens, I'm hoping we get a #5 seed in the BTT.  Why 5 seed?  Five seed plays the winner of the 12/13 game (likely Iowa, Illinois or Rutgers.) That winner would have 1-day rest before facing us, of course.  A win there gets us to 22 wins.  We'd follow that with an RPI-improving game against one of the top 4 seeds.  A loss there cannot hurt us. A win could improve our seed in the NCAA tourney.  And we'd be facing off against the lowest of the top 4 seeds (at this point, looking like Michigan) so a more winnable game than if we were the 6 seed facing the 11 seed followed by the 3 seed.

 

If a 12-6 conference record gets us into the 4th seed, we lose that chance at an extra win to get to 22 and would likely face a 5 seed playing to reach the dance.

 

You are correct, 12-6 and a 5 seed is much better than 12-6 and a 4 seed.  But...the competition is Michigan, and we've got the tie-breaker.  So Michigan would have to go 13-5.  They're currently 6-3, so they could only lose 2 more.  They have a game at Purdue - likely one loss there.  They've got Northwestern, Minnesota, Iowa at home - safe to call those wins.  They're at Northwestern and Wisconsin - they should win those, but who knows.  They also have Ohio State at home and Penn State & Maryland on the road, they would have to go 2-1 in those 3.  So, it's possible for them to go 13-5, but probably not likely.

[Norm Peterson]

I think it's probably just as likely they go 7-2 to finish as it is that we do.  So, they remain a game up on us and the tie-breaker doesn't come into play if that happens.  

 

In which case, Purdue probably wins the regular season followed by Ohio State, Michigan State, Michigan and us.

 

I like that 5 seed.  First round bye and second round against a bottom seed before a rematch with Michigan where we match up pretty well.

[Dead Dog Alley]

4 hours ago, The Polish Rifle said:

Has a 6-loss B1G team (12-6 new B1G, 10-6 old B1G) ever been left out of the dance? I'd venture to guess not.

 

Here are all of the Big Ten teams from the last 20 seasons that finished over .500 in league play and did not make the NCAA tournament.

 

Season	Team	Big Ten Record	Big Ten Finish	Regular Season Record	Record after Big Ten Tournament	Record after NIT
2017	Iowa	10-8	5 (4 way tie)	18-13	18-14	19-15
2016	Ohio State	11-7	7	19-12	20-13	21-14
2010	Illinois	10-8	5	18-13	19-14	21-15
2009	Penn State	10-8	4 (3 way tie)	21-10	22-11	27-11
2008	Ohio State	10-8	5	19-12	19-13	24-13
2007	Iowa	9-7	4 (3 way tie)	17-13	17-14	17-14
2005	Indiana	10-6	4 (2 way tie)	15-12	15-13	15-14
2004	Iowa	9-7	4	16-11	16-12	16-13
2003	Michigan	10-6	3 (3 way tie)	17-12	17-13	17-13
2002	Minnesota	9-7	5	16-11	17-12	18-13
1998	Iowa	9-7	5 (2 way tie)	20-9	20-10	20-11

Edited January 23, 2018 by Dead Dog Alley

[Norm Peterson]

Indiana is currently half a game ahead of us in conference standings.

 

However, their last ten games of the regular season is brutal:

 

Purdue, Michigan State, Ohio State TWICE, and their road games are @ Illinois tonight, @ Ohio State, @ Rutgers, @ Iowa, and @ PBA.

 

So, they have a tough row to hoe to stay ahead of us in league standings.  Betting man says it won't happen.

[uneblinstu]

I'm on record saying Illinois will beat Indiana tomorrow.

[Silverbacked1]

 

Since we are getting done a week early can we schedule a game or two to play in that off week?  I think somebody talked about that way back at the begining of the year.

 

Could we find some body who might also be looking to pad the resume to get in?

 

Just throwing it out there if it is even allowed by the NCAA.

[Art Vandalay]

3 hours ago, Dead Dog Alley said:

 

Here are all of the Big Ten teams from the last 20 seasons that finished over .500 in league play and did not make the NCAA tournament.

 

Season	Team	Big Ten Record	Big Ten Finish	Regular Season Record	Record after Big Ten Tournament	Record after NIT
2017	Iowa	10-8	5 (4 way tie)	18-13	18-14	19-15
2016	Ohio State	11-7	7	19-12	20-13	21-14
2010	Illinois	10-8	5	18-13	19-14	21-15
2009	Penn State	10-8	4 (3 way tie)	21-10	22-11	27-11
2008	Ohio State	10-8	5	19-12	19-13	24-13
2007	Iowa	9-7	4 (3 way tie)	17-13	17-14	17-14
2005	Indiana	10-6	4 (2 way tie)	15-12	15-13	15-14
2004	Iowa	9-7	4	16-11	16-12	16-13
2003	Michigan	10-6	3 (3 way tie)	17-12	17-13	17-13
2002	Minnesota	9-7	5	16-11	17-12	18-13
1998	Iowa	9-7	5 (2 way tie)	20-9	20-10	20-11

Very encouraging if you ask me. Only once has an 11 win team not made it and they were 7th. 11 wins this year probably still gets us 5 maybe 6th. Probably still need to do a little work in tourney but keeps us in the conversation.

[hskr4life]

Best Conference Record Team Not Selected
MAJOR CONFERENCE					MID MAJOR CONFERENCE
1	Washington	14-4	2012		1	Illinois St.	17-1	2017
2	Alabama	12-4	2011		2	San Diego State	16-2	2016
3	Oregon	13-5	2012		2	UAB	16-2	2016
4	Kentucky	12-6	2013		4	St. Mary's	15-3	2016
4	Alabama	12-6	2013		4	Missouri State	15-3	2011

 

 

Best Overall Record Team Not Selected
MAJOR CONFERENCE					MID MAJOR CONFERENCE
1	Virginia Tech	23-8	2010		1	St. Mary's	26-5	2016
1	South Carolina	23-8	2016		2	Colorado State	26-6	2015
3	Oregon	22-9	2011		2	Illinois St.	26-6	2017
4	South Carolina	21-9	2009		4	Southern Miss.	25-6	2014
5	Florida	23-10	2009		4	UAB	25-6	2016

[Donkey]

I get most of the arguments of Devany and BIG clout.  Any other year, I would say 13-5 BIG record would have Nebraska in the dance.  However, the committee's standard for evaluating teams is different this year and the BIG's RPI is ranked #6 which puts it at the bottom of the P5 conferences and the Big East.  I doubt the BIG will have more schools than those top 5 conferences.  Right now, the Pac-12 is projected to have 4 with the rest receiving 7-9 each (29 total potential bids).  It is those conferences which are eating up the at large bids not mid-majors.

 

For the sake of discussion, let's assume Nebraska's at large chances are against a mid-major school.  I expect 4 mid-major at large bids.  That is really a small number of mid-major at large bids.  Per Bracket Matrix, only 3 conferences -- A-10, AAC and West Coast -- are expected to receive at large bids (4 total projected) with 3 conferences -- A-10, CUSA and Mountain West -- having 2 schools who are next out.  The AAC schools -- Cincinnati, Wichita St, SMU, and Houston --  compared to Nebraska, all have better RPIs, 1-3 Quadrant 1 wins, and only one Quadrant 3 losses (SMU lost to N Iowa).  Under any basis, only SMU is comparable to Nebraska and is slightly best at worst.  I doubt Mountain West sends 2 schools unless Nevada fails to win the conference tourney (Nevada definitely would get an at-large).  Nebraska's RPI is lower than Boise St, but is otherwise better than Boise.  West Coast, St. Mary's and Gonzaga have better resumes (although Gonzaga may be comparable).  CUSA -- if WKU wins the CUSA tourney, MTSU and Nebraska are comparable but Nebraska has an advantage over WKU.  WKU seems boarderline already and 2-3 losses may be enough to knock them out.   Another at large bid could be vultured if St. Bonaventure wins the A-10 as Rhode Island is worthy of an at-large.  St. Bonaventure could be problematic when comparing resumes with Nebraska. 

 

I expect 2 at larges to go to Cincinnati, Wichita St., St. Mary's and Gonzaga (based on remaining games) with 2 of them receiving the automatic bid for winning the conference tournament. I would cheer for Boise St, SMU, Houston, and WKU/MTSU  to lose a few more games and St. Bonaventure to not win the A-10. 

 

Conversely, let's say Nebraska needs to pull an at large bid from one of the other P5 conferences or the Big East.  However, it is more likely many The following schools are not projected to get to the tournament or are projected to be a double digit seed but have a somewhat comparable resume to Nebraska: Colorado, Utah, UCLA, South Carolina, Mississippi, Kansas St, Syracuse, Notre Dame, FSU, Boston College, George, Marquette, USC, Providence, Missouri, and Texas.  That is 8 at large seeds for 16 teams.  Boston College is the only school with a clearly worse record than Nebraska.

 

Do not forget to include Maryland and Michigan as both resumes are slightly better than Nebraska.

 

That leaves Nebraska in a pool of 26 schools with 10 at large bids at stake.  Of the schools, only WKU, St. Bonaventure and Boston College are clearly worse resumes.  Assuming the argument made by some that Nebraska will automatically jump over a mid-major school because its in the BIG, eliminate SMU, Houston, and Boise State.  That leaves Nebraska behind 10 schools (all of whom from P5 or Big East) for the last at-large spot.    

 

I do not see the Pac-12 receiving less than 4 bids.  That leaves the ACC, SEC, Big 12, and Big East needing to lose bids.  The ACC and SEC are too deep.  If any projected teams falter, there are a few with better resumes than Nebraska ready to step up.  I could see 2 at large bids opening from the Big East and Big 12 assuming Texas, Kansas St, and Marquette do not pull off any upsets (none of the next tier schools have a better resume than Nebraska).  That would increase the bids to 12 and move Nebraska up 3 spots from 20 to 17 (leaving Nebraska behind 5 schools).

 

The above assumes no more than 0-2 more Nebraska losses; poor showings going forward for the mid-major schools; no random schools below Nebraska winning conference tournaments; and 2 bids from the Big East and Big 12 opening up.  Way too many ifs here with no guarantee Nebraska will be dancing.  Its a tight line, and I doubt 7-2 will allow Nebraska to jump over 5 P5 or Big East schools.  8-1 will close the gap.  9-0 and Nebraska's in.

Edited January 24, 2018 by Donkey

[hskr4life]

I’ll believe this tier thing will have a big effect when I see it as well.  The NCAA and committee has always said their going to use and try this and that one year and it always seems to go to the norm when it’s crunch time.

 

7-2 to finish up with no losses to Quadrant 3 or 4 will be a nice resume if they do use the quadrant thing..  13-5... I will take that in a heat beat.  Remember that conferences will have teams that beat up on each other so much that teams will have losses as well.

[HuskerFever]

1 hour ago, Silverbacked1 said:

 

Since we are getting done a week early...

 

I actually think about this from time to time. Will us finishing a week early cause the (potential) bubble conversation to move from Nebraska to other teams who still have a week left to play, causing us to start getting overlooked with "fresher" wins from other teams?

[hskr4life]

5 minutes ago, HuskerFever said:

 

I actually think about this from time to time. Will us finishing a week early cause the (potential) bubble conversation to move from Nebraska to other teams who still have a week left to play, causing us to start getting overlooked with "fresher" wins from other teams?

 

If we perform well and don’t lay an egg, it could force some teams to crap down their leg as well... but I hear ya.  I didn’t think about that.  At least we will know who we need to be rooting for if we’re finishing a week early.

[hhcdave]

I would agree that it's 40-60 on NU getting in the dance. However, saying they have to go 9-0 to get in is borderline testable for drugs. If NU goes 7-2 plus one, they will be dancing. 

[Dead Dog Alley]

Just for some perspective, if we do go 21-10 going into the conference tournament, that 21 win regular season would be the third most wins in a regular season in school history.  (24 in 1991, 22 in 1920, 20 in 1993, 1978, and 1966.)

[Donkey]

38 minutes ago, hhcdave said:

I would agree that it's 40-60 on NU getting in the dance. However, saying they have to go 9-0 to get in is borderline testable for drugs. If NU goes 7-2 plus one, they will be dancing. 

 

Fair enough. If Nebraska goes 7-2, it will have to jump over 5 teams referenced above to make the tournament.  I have already eliminated the mid-major schools and Boston College, Kansas St, Texas, and Marquette.  Please tell me which five teams from the list provided above either (a) Nebraska is better than right now or (b) will go 5-4 or worse over the next 9 games.      

[jimmykc]

OK then, let's just win them all beginning tonight.

[HuskerPower #nato73]

Assuming we do what we need to do on our end (win two on the road and protect the home floor) we will have another opportunity for a bigger scalp in the BIG 10 tourney.  Perhaps a 4/5 matchup with Michigan.

[HuskerPower #nato73]

14 hours ago, Dead Dog Alley said:

 

Here are all of the Big Ten teams from the last 20 seasons that finished over .500 in league play and did not make the NCAA tournament.

 

Season	Team	Big Ten Record	Big Ten Finish	Regular Season Record	Record after Big Ten Tournament	Record after NIT
2017	Iowa	10-8	5 (4 way tie)	18-13	18-14	19-15
2016	Ohio State	11-7	7	19-12	20-13	21-14
2010	Illinois	10-8	5	18-13	19-14	21-15
2009	Penn State	10-8	4 (3 way tie)	21-10	22-11	27-11
2008	Ohio State	10-8	5	19-12	19-13	24-13
2007	Iowa	9-7	4 (3 way tie)	17-13	17-14	17-14
2005	Indiana	10-6	4 (2 way tie)	15-12	15-13	15-14
2004	Iowa	9-7	4	16-11	16-12	16-13
2003	Michigan	10-6	3 (3 way tie)	17-12	17-13	17-13
2002	Minnesota	9-7	5	16-11	17-12	18-13
1998	Iowa	9-7	5 (2 way tie)	20-9	20-10	20-11

Note that the field expanded to 68 teams and play in games in 2011.

[hhctony]

8 hours ago, Donkey said:

 

Fair enough. If Nebraska goes 7-2, it will have to jump over 5 teams referenced above to make the tournament.  I have already eliminated the mid-major schools and Boston College, Kansas St, Texas, and Marquette.  Please tell me which five teams from the list provided above either (a) Nebraska is better than right now or (b) will go 5-4 or worse over the next 9 games.      

 

For Kansas State, 5-6 would be a pretty respectable finish heading in the Big 12 Tournament. Puts them at 20-11 (but probably a better resume than Nebraska).

 

For Texas, 5-6 would be insane (I think 4-7 could be there final 11). Even at 5-6, they'd be 18-13 overall (8-10 Big 12).

 

For Marquette, could go 6-5 which would get them 19-11 (10-8 Big East) but to do that, they'd have to beat St. John's, Georgetown and DePaul on the road.

[Norm Peterson]

12 hours ago, Donkey said:

I get most of the arguments of Devany and BIG clout.  Any other year, I would say 13-5 BIG record would have Nebraska in the dance.  However, the committee's standard for evaluating teams is different this year and the BIG's RPI is ranked #6 which puts it at the bottom of the P5 conferences and the Big East.  I doubt the BIG will have more schools than those top 5 conferences.  Right now, the Pac-12 is projected to have 4 with the rest receiving 7-9 each (29 total potential bids).  It is those conferences which are eating up the at large bids not mid-majors.

 

snipped

 

Donkey, I understand what your point is, but don't you mean 12-6 rather than 13-5?

 

In order for Nebraska to get to 13-5 in the regular season, we'd have to win 8 or our last 9 regular season games.

 

We're on the cusp of the bubble right now.  The combination of teams we'd have to beat to get to 13-5 would clearly launch us into the front of the bubble or virtual lock territory.

 

To get to 13-5, we'd have to win out at home including beating Maryland, and we'd have to win 3 out of 4 of the following:  Minnesota, Wisconsin, Rutgers, and Illinois.

 

And,  by the way, there's not one of those teams that I look at and say, oh, there's no way we can beat them on the road.  We might not win them all, but for the first time in a very long time, we have a team that I look at and think they actually could.