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Y'know, it would not quite take a miracle ...

Norm Peterson

By Norm Peterson
in The Haymarket Hardwood

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Norm Peterson

Norm Peterson

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... for us to finish over .500 in conference this year.  Lot of luck, but not a miracle. 

 

Hey, tough part of the conference schedule (who am I kidding, the whole thing is tough) is over.  I know a lot of Husker fans figured we'd be 0-7 in conference right now.  We're 2-5 but we could have easily picked up wins against Michigan and at PSU.

 

But, even with those losses, if we hold down the home court from here on out, including tonight, that gives us 6 more wins and those would be against teams mostly in the bottom half of the league right now (Kenpom-wise) including Indiana, Illinois, Penn State, Purdue, and Northwestern.  All very winnable games for us.  And then Wisconsin, which you'd expect to be the toughie of the group.

 

Then, we have road games that seem winnable.  At Northwestern.  No gimme, but we're not out of it before we even set foot in the arena like I expect we would be at Michigan State.  And the other one is at Michigan.  Miles said in his weekly presser that he likes how we match up against Michigan.  And, yeah, I do too.  They have some great talent, for sure.  But I see us settling in a bit.

 

Win everything at home the rest of this season, pick up a tough road win at Northwestern and somehow manage to get redemption at Michigan ...

 

... and that's 10 conference wins against 8 losses.

 

Odds of that happening?  Long.  Very, very long.  But we're not talking miracle territory.  Still within the realm of possibility.

ajb5856

ajb5856

Posted
Posted

... for us to finish over .500 in conference this year. Lot of luck, but not a miracle.

Hey, tough part of the conference schedule (who am I kidding, the whole thing is tough) is over. I know a lot of Husker fans figured we'd be 0-7 in conference right now. We're 2-5 but we could have easily picked up wins against Michigan and at PSU.

But, even with those losses, if we hold down the home court from here on out, including tonight, that gives us 6 more wins and those would be against teams mostly in the bottom half of the league right now (Kenpom-wise) including Indiana, Illinois, Penn State, Purdue, and Northwestern. All very winnable games for us. And then Wisconsin, which you'd expect to be the toughie of the group.

Then, we have road games that seem winnable. At Northwestern. No gimme, but we're not out of it before we even set foot in the arena like I expect we would be at Michigan State. And the other one is at Michigan. Miles said in his weekly presser that he likes how we match up against Michigan. And, yeah, I do too. They have some great talent, for sure. But I see us settling in a bit.

Win everything at home the rest of this season, pick up a tough road win at Northwestern and somehow manage to get redemption at Michigan ...

... and that's 10 conference wins against 8 losses.

Odds of that happening? Long. Very, very long. But we're not talking miracle territory. Still within the realm of possibility.

And 10-8 would mean............NCAAs!!!!!

Sgt Lincoln Osiris

Sgt Lincoln Osiris

Posted
Posted

 

... for us to finish over .500 in conference this year. Lot of luck, but not a miracle.

Hey, tough part of the conference schedule (who am I kidding, the whole thing is tough) is over. I know a lot of Husker fans figured we'd be 0-7 in conference right now. We're 2-5 but we could have easily picked up wins against Michigan and at PSU.

But, even with those losses, if we hold down the home court from here on out, including tonight, that gives us 6 more wins and those would be against teams mostly in the bottom half of the league right now (Kenpom-wise) including Indiana, Illinois, Penn State, Purdue, and Northwestern. All very winnable games for us. And then Wisconsin, which you'd expect to be the toughie of the group.

Then, we have road games that seem winnable. At Northwestern. No gimme, but we're not out of it before we even set foot in the arena like I expect we would be at Michigan State. And the other one is at Michigan. Miles said in his weekly presser that he likes how we match up against Michigan. And, yeah, I do too. They have some great talent, for sure. But I see us settling in a bit.

Win everything at home the rest of this season, pick up a tough road win at Northwestern and somehow manage to get redemption at Michigan ...

... and that's 10 conference wins against 8 losses.

Odds of that happening? Long. Very, very long. But we're not talking miracle territory. Still within the realm of possibility.

And 10-8 would mean............NCAAs!!!!!

 

I think 9-9 would put us in a favorable position, probably somewhere around the 6-7 seed in the B1G tourney playing against the 10-11 seed, which would be winnable.  The game tonight would be a big step.  Holding home court is obviously the big one, anything on the road is a bonus IMO

Norm Peterson

Norm Peterson

Posted
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I get what you guys are saying with the "here was go again" thing.  But we have 5 conference losses right now and three of those are to ranked teams.  We lost at Ohio State when they were in the top 5.  We lost at #15 Iowa and we lost at home to #10 Michigan.  By 1 point.  Well, we don't face Iowa again.  We beat Ohio State the 2nd time around. 

 

Our only "bad" Big 10 losses are AT Purdue and AT Penn State.  But we get them back here in the 2nd half of conference play.  And we don't have to play Iowa again.

 

I'm not saying we get there.  I am saying that it's not going to require the intercession of St. Jude to get it done either.

 

Win the winnable games and we get to 8 wins in conference.  Sneak a win at Michigan (again, going off of what Coach Miles said and what we saw in game 1) and then hold home court on Senior Day against Wisconsin and we're 10-8.  With a very tough strength of schedule.

 

And, hey, if you don't want to talk about our potential Big 10 record, we could always go back to talking about Deverell Biggs.  :o  :P  :D  ;)

AuroranHusker

AuroranHusker

Posted
Posted

There was an article written recently (from an MSU fan website that updates odds after every ballgame, I believe) that gave the Huskers roughly a 10-12% chance of finishing at or above .500 - the overwhelming odds were in the 6-12 and 8-10 range (roughly 70-75% for those 3 results combined).

Seemed to be an intrguing way to imagine that NU could be dancin' if some of these games like tonight result in a Nebraska victory (and repeat winning process).

hhcmatt

hhcmatt

Posted
Posted

We have 4 road games against sub 70 KenPom B1G teams this year.  So far we're 0-2.

I'd give us better odds at finishing over .500 in the B1G than I would of beating Michigan on the road at this particular moment.

PimpMario

PimpMario

Posted
Posted

Norm, this is a joke thread isn't it?  You are just trolling right?

 

I feel like the last two weeks all we have done on this board is have people say OMG we are going to the NCAAs and then have other posters say control your expectations.  

 

But if we are going to be completely unreasonable and ask for a miracle why not go really crazy!?!?!

 

So I think we can win our remaining 11 conference games.  That would give us a bye in the tournament.  So we only have to go 3-0 in the conference tournament.

 

That would put us at 24-9.  So that means we probably can get a 4 seed, or maybe even a 3 seed.

 

The funny part about that dream, is we would still probably lose to a 14 seed in the tournament.  :P

Norm Peterson

Norm Peterson

Posted
  • Author
Posted

According to the current Kenpom standings, we are 8th in conference.  That means we're ahead of 4 other teams.  And guess what?  We still have home games left on our schedule against all 4 of those teams.  I mean, seriously, what more could you ask for?  The table couldn't be set any better.

 

And of our remaining road games, one of them is against the worst team in the league right now according to Kenpom.  So there's that, too.

 

You might think I'm a sunshine pumping fanboy for saying so, but those are winnable games, all of them.  Not saying we will win them.  But I am saying they are all winnable.  And by winnable, I'm not talking about huge upsets here.  I'm not talking about against all odds kinds of wins.  I'm not asking to walk into Michigan State and pull off an upset.  I'm talking freaking Northwestern here.

 

And if we can manage to win just one other, either a home contest against Wisconsin on Senior Day, or somehow pull a rabbit out of a hat at Michigan, we can go .500 in league.  And if we win both of those, it's a path to getting over .500 in league.

 

Now, me saying it, you know I'm not going to be looking for a window to jump out of in the event the above doesn't come to pass.  But it's not like this is all pie in the sky craziness either.

ajb5856

ajb5856

Posted
Posted

I love all of this talk. I don't understand why we can't do it and why some posters freak out when it happens. Win tonight and the what if talk only escalates so get used to it. The one game at a time fan mentality isn't necessary.

I like you're thinking, Norm.

royalfan

royalfan

Posted
Posted

I have no end of trouble trying to reconcile the fact that Northwestern is by far the worst KenPom team in the league, yet here they are sitting at 4-4 with wins @Wisconsin and @Indiana.

 

The two just simply don't compute.

 

Upsets happen.  They played way over their heads in a couple games.  Doesn't mean it is expected to continue going forward.  Vegas certainly in agreement.  Easily the worst club in the league. 

49r

49r

Posted
Posted

 

I have no end of trouble trying to reconcile the fact that Northwestern is by far the worst KenPom team in the league, yet here they are sitting at 4-4 with wins @Wisconsin and @Indiana.

 

The two just simply don't compute.

 

Upsets happen.  They played way over their heads in a couple games.  Doesn't mean it is expected to continue going forward.  Vegas certainly in agreement.  Easily the worst club in the league. 

 

 

Agree.

 

It's just one of those trends will need to break soon.  Either Northwestern is going to stop winning so many games, or they're gonna stop being easily the worst RPI team in the league.

GoBigRed

GoBigRed

Posted
Posted

I love all of this talk. I don't understand why we can't do it and why some posters freak out when it happens. Win tonight and the what if talk only escalates so get used to it. The one game at a time fan mentality isn't necessary.

I like you're thinking, Norm.

Agreed. That's for the team. We aren't the team. We can dream. If you don't want to be a dreamer, don't crush ours! I'll let the team do that instead. Then when they don't crush it someday, that's when it will have all been worth it.

nuled2dance

nuled2dance

Posted
Posted

Dreams have been crushed for last 15 years with most of you on that mentality. One game at a time is how I roll as I used to dream with all of you. Still would love to meet a bigger fan than me but shattered dreams get old.

Lets have a blast tonight and then get ready to blow up this board in 4 hours!

Gbr!

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