Bracketology 2024/2025

[hskr4life]

Just now, HuskerFever said:

 

I'd imagine we'd have to win at least 6 of our remaining games to be in the hunt. Then goes +/- by conference tournament time.

 

Correct 6 has you firmly on the bubble (would feel much better if we'd get 1 in the conference tournament though).

 

5 and you probably need 2 in the conference tournament.

 

7 and we're good no matter what happens conference tournament.

[huskerkid21]

On 1/27/2025 at 3:25 PM, huskerkid21 said:

I still have hope - at least until the final whistle blows against Illinois. Lets just say we play our frickin tales off and hang on to win that one. one would hope that would be a confidence builder. at that point the rest of the year becomes win out at home by any means necessary (yes even Michigan because in this scenario in my head (which will definitely happen) we are sniffing a tourney appearance by the time they come to Lincoln and the boys know it so they go out and win that as well.

On the road then its all about beating Washington while probably losing all our other road games. In that scenario we get to 19 wins and were at least on the bubble with a chance to make some noise in the Big ten tourney. And WHO KNOWS in this fantasy land dream scenario we could go out and win TWO on the road and were safely in with 20 wins!!

 

On the other hand if we lose to Illinois in humiliating fashion we may not win another game this year. That's all I got at this point and as always go Skers #optomist

step one complete

[hskr4life]

 

[cozrulz]

If we have to split the next two road games, what is the better scenario?  Does a road win at Oregon but loss to Washington do more than a road loss to Oregon and win at Washington?  Or would a loss to Washington hurt more than the worth of a win at Oregon?

[Shawn Eichorst's Toupee]

6 minutes ago, cozrulz said:

If we have to split the next two road games, what is the better scenario?  Does a road win at Oregon but loss to Washington do more than a road loss to Oregon and win at Washington?  Or would a loss to Washington hurt more than the worth of a win at Oregon?

 

Road win at Oregon. Make the signature wins include at Creighton, Oregon and home against UCLA, Illinois. Right now people are lumping Indiana in the signature win category and there's no way that'll last through the season. 

[HuskerFever]

14 minutes ago, hskr4life said:

 

 

Sounds great. But... how do we get to 19 wins?

[hhcmatt]

6 minutes ago, HuskerFever said:

Sounds great. But... how do we get to 19 wins?

 

One game at a time

[millerhusker]

10 minutes ago, HuskerFever said:

 

Sounds great. But... how do we get to 19 wins?

Protect home court and get one of the five remaining road games. That’ll do it 

[Swan88]

Here is a theory on the now-ended losing skid: I call it the "love effect."  

Nebraska has a long history (based on my memory) of team success followed by a player getting, all-of-a-sudden, a bunch of unexpected love from the national press . . . only to be followed by the team going into the tank immediately thereafter.

So, that happened with Brice a while back--culminating in national player of the week honors.  When that happened, I literally said: "Oh, no! the team is going into the tank for a while!!"  And six losses ensued.

Hopefully, the love-effect is through the Husker's system now, and we can get back to sustained winning ways--even if the love returns.

 

[HuskerFever]

5 minutes ago, Swan88 said:

I call it the "love effect."  

 

I call it the 23.8% effect.

[thrasher31]

At minimum I think they need to be at 9-11 by the time the big ten tourney comes around, and I think that'll put them on the right side of being in. That means 6-4 over the last 10 games. Have 5 home games and 5 away games. With the exception of Michigan, which I think is a winnable game, Nebraska should be favored at least slightly in every home game. Find at least 1 away win, if not 2 to give yourself breathing room. Last night was a step in the right direction for that. Keep it going

[millerhusker]

1 hour ago, Swan88 said:

Here is a theory on the now-ended losing skid: I call it the "love effect."  

Nebraska has a long history (based on my memory) of team success followed by a player getting, all-of-a-sudden, a bunch of unexpected love from the national press . . . only to be followed by the team going into the tank immediately thereafter.

So, that happened with Brice a while back--culminating in national player of the week honors.  When that happened, I literally said: "Oh, no! the team is going into the tank for a while!!"  And six losses ensued.

Hopefully, the love-effect is through the Husker's system now, and we can get back to sustained winning ways--even if the love returns.

 

It did feel similar to the beginning of the 2014-15 season with Petteway as "the guy". Had a bit of national hype, ranked #21 in the nation, then completely fell apart. 

Last year was different. Keisei garnered some national attention, but it was basically the national media subtly mocking him and Nebraska, not taking us seriously. So we were still the misfit underdogs in a way. And Keisei may have been "the guy", but Mast was every bit as valuable and important to the team. Brice, Juwan and Allick were right there too. 

[cozrulz]

1 hour ago, HuskerFever said:

 

Sounds great. But... how do we get to 19 wins?

 

Make winning plays late like we did in overtime last night.  Those were the plays we didn't make in 4 of the 6 we lost.  Not playing tight defense, not rebounding, not making open shots.

 

Going forward, a two game win streak at some point and splitting the rest gets you there.  Probably the toughest games are home games with the road games looking more winnable.

 

Hopefully we just go on a big win streak.  It would be amazing to win the next three and be playing Maryland at home to get back to .500.

[brfrad]

6 hours ago, hskr4life said:

 

Correct 6 has you firmly on the bubble (would feel much better if we'd get 1 in the conference tournament though).

 

5 and you probably need 2 in the conference tournament.

 

7 and we're good no matter what happens conference tournament.

6 wins should get us in and avoid Dayton.  We would have better metrics than last year, especially if UCLA, USC, and Rutgers remain in their current quads.  I'm going to assume getting to 6 wins would involve protecting home court (3 more quad 1 wins) and at Washington.   That would give us 6 quad 1 wins, and 3 road wins.  Last year we had 5 quad 1 wins and 3 road wins.  

 

This is a fun exercise and beats looking up NITology.

[HuskerFever]

59 minutes ago, brfrad said:

6 wins should get us in and avoid Dayton.  We would have better metrics than last year, especially if UCLA, USC, and Rutgers remain in their current quads.  I'm going to assume getting to 6 wins would involve protecting home court (3 more quad 1 wins) and at Washington.   That would give us 6 quad 1 wins, and 3 road wins.  Last year we had 5 quad 1 wins and 3 road wins.  

 

This is a fun exercise and beats looking up NITology.

 

3P% Outcomes

 

UTRGV: 31.7% (13-41), 87-67 Win

Bethune Cookman: 34.6% (9-26), 63-58 Win

FDU: 30.4% (7-23), 86-60 Win

St. Mary's: 47.8% (11-23), 74-77 Loss

Creighton: 28.6% (12-42), 74-63 Win

South Dakota: 28.6% (8-28), 96-79 Win

North Florida: 32.6% (14-43),  103-72 Win

Michigan State: 39.1% (9-23), 52-89 Loss

Indiana: 22.9% (8-35), 85-68 Win

Murray State: 25.9% (7-27), 66-49 Win

Hawaii: 25.0% (5-20), 69-55 Win

Oregon State: 37.5% (9-24), 78-66 Win

Southern: 12.5% (3-24), 77-43 Win

UCLA: 14.3% (4-28), 66-58 Win

Iowa: 48.6% (17-35), 87-97 Loss

Purdue: 57.6% (19-33), 68-104 Loss

Rutgers: 41.4% (12-29), 82-85 Loss

Maryland: 40.0% (10-25), 66-69 Loss

USC: 28.6% (6-21), 73-78 Loss

Wisconsin: 45.9% (17-37), 55-83 Loss

Illinois: 23.8% (10-42), 80-74 Win

 

Remaining (Current 3P%):

 

Oregon: 33.4%

Washington: 32.1%

Ohio State: 37.3%

Maryland: 37.2%

Northwestern: 33.1%

Penn State: 34.6%

Michigan: 37.0%

Minnesota: 32.3%

Ohio State: 37.3%

Iowa: 38.6%

[hskr4life]

2 hours ago, brfrad said:

6 wins should get us in and avoid Dayton.  We would have better metrics than last year, especially if UCLA, USC, and Rutgers remain in their current quads.  I'm going to assume getting to 6 wins would involve protecting home court (3 more quad 1 wins) and at Washington.   That would give us 6 quad 1 wins, and 3 road wins.  Last year we had 5 quad 1 wins and 3 road wins.  

 

This is a fun exercise and beats looking up NITology.

Just running this through the B1G tourney generator. A 9-11 finish puts us in an 11th place finish behind USC should all games finish as “they should”

[Handy Johnson]

Starter Wilhelm Breidenbach Scores 2 points in a Washington WIN over the Gophers @ the Barn leaving both Teams with a 3-8 Conference Record. 

[BBALL FAN]

Actually puts Washington at 2-8

 

[HuskerFever]

54 minutes ago, BBALL FAN said:

Actually puts Washington at 2-8

 

Probably already considering our loss to Washington, somehow.

[hskr4life]

If the tournament were to start today, we would be in the field-- even with a 4-7 conference record. 4 Q1 wins and 6-7 in Q1/Q2. Only a single Q3 loss but if Rutgers wins a few, they would pop back to a Q2 loss. Just wow.

 

There's going to be a team or two left out of the B1G tournament with some really good wins.

[skerbball]

Looking at the bracketology and getting way ahead of myself...Wichita has the 6 vs 11  and 7 vs 10 games. That 11 seed will come from the Dayton first 4 winner. Denver has 6 vs 11 and 5 vs 12 games. Go Big Red! 

[HuskerActuary]

Haven't done super in-depth research but do folks agree with this?

 

19 total wins including conference tournament - 50/50 in given our schedule and strong wins. Would likely be in the First Four

 

20 total wins extremely likely in, and likely not in the First Four

[hskr4life]

2 minutes ago, HuskerActuary said:

Haven't done super in-depth research but do folks agree with this?

 

19 total wins including conference tournament - 50/50 in given our schedule and strong wins. Would likely be in the First Four

 

20 total wins extremely likely in, and likely not in the First Four

This is about where I’m at. Though I’d like 19 going into conference tournament week. To me it doesn’t appear that the committee gave much leeway to conference tournaments in the past few years.

 

19 regular season and I think we’re really close. 20 no matter how you get there and you’re a lock.

[millerhusker]

There are just 18 teams with more quad 1 wins than Nebraska

[royalfan]

I have always argued that quads are a lazy and somewhat arbitrary tool.  This year it could play to our favor if the selection folks are truly so lazy to use it.