KenPom 2023-2024 KenPom Rankings Thread

[Chuck Taylor]

fwiw, Walker's defensive rating was 1.80 on evanyiya.com last year, compared to Mast's 1.75. Seems like a wash.

[cornfed24-7]

18 hours ago, Chuck Taylor said:

fwiw, Walker's defensive rating was 1.80 on evanyiya.com last year, compared to Mast's 1.75. Seems like a wash.

Does that rating take into account the level of competition? 

[Chuck Taylor]

5 hours ago, cornfed24-7 said:

Does that rating take into account the level of competition? 

Yes. None of the top 10 nationally in the defensive ratings played for mid or low majors.

Here's an explanation:

Quote

A player’s ratings incorporate his individual efficiency statistics, along with his impact on the court for his team, which is assessed by looking at how successful his team was in every possession he played. These ratings account for the strength of all other players on the floor with that player in each of his possessions that he played.

Idk, maybe this defensive rating system isn't all that great. It projects Mast dropping from 1.75 to 1.30 this year, which doesn't make a lot of sense.

[Vinny]

6 hours ago, Chuck Taylor said:

Yes. None of the top 10 nationally in the defensive ratings played for mid or low majors.

Here's an explanation:

Idk, maybe this defensive rating system isn't all that great. It projects Mast dropping from 1.75 to 1.30 this year, which doesn't make a lot of sense.

Well, if it takes into account level of competition, it makes sense that his rating might be expected to drop, given the step up in competition from the MVC to the B1G.

But should it drop that much?

[k3s3i]

32 minutes ago, Vinny said:

Well, if it takes into account level of competition, it makes sense that his rating might be expected to drop, given the step up in competition from the MVC to the B1G.

But should it drop that much?

evanmayas player ratings really don’t make much sense to me, i much prefer bartorviks obpm and dbpm

[49r]

Big drops for Michigan State, Ohio State and Rutgers.  We moved up three spots, right in that big clump in the middle of the Big Ten now (albeit at the bottom).  Non-con opponents rankings stay pretty much all the same.

 

---

 

KenPom rankings as of 11-07-23

=======================

 

B1G (0-0):
1. Purdue
17. Wisconsin
20. Illinois
23. Maryland
24. Michigan State
46. Ohio State
48. Northwestern
45. Michigan
50. Indiana
51. Iowa
55. Nebraska
70. Rutgers
81. Penn State
110. Minnesota

 

 

Non-Conference (1-0):
354. Lindenwood - W

343. Florida A&M

---Cornhusker Classic---
227. Rider
275. Stony Brook

---Sanford Pentagon---
173. Oregon State

 

---Cornhusker Classic---

92. Duquesne

 

183. Cal State Fullerton

11. Creighton
32. @Kansas State
254. North Dakota

344. South Carolina State

[hhcmatt]

55 would be the highest of the HCFH era but it doesn't count until Thursday because it can very much change up until then.

[Norm Peterson]

On the one hand, thanks A LOT Michigan St, you've just dropped the conference RPI or whatever so everyone will claim the Big Ten is down this year and they'll take everyone who finishes ahead of us and a team that finishes behind us but leave us out. Again. Jerks.

 

On the OTHER hand ...

 

[hskr4life]

27 minutes ago, Norm Peterson said:

On the one hand, thanks A LOT Michigan St, you've just dropped the conference RPI or whatever so everyone will claim the Big Ten is down this year and they'll take everyone who finishes ahead of us and a team that finishes behind us but leave us out. Again. Jerks.

 

On the OTHER hand ...

 

We just have to finish Top 4.  There’s NO WAY they’d leave out a team who finishes top 4 in this conference!

[OmahaHusker]

43 minutes ago, Norm Peterson said:

On the one hand, thanks A LOT Michigan St, you've just dropped the conference RPI or whatever so everyone will claim the Big Ten is down this year and they'll take everyone who finishes ahead of us and a team that finishes behind us but leave us out. Again. Jerks.

 

On the OTHER hand ...

 

 

Dauster seemed pretty happy about the Big Ten imploding early last night

 

https://youtube.com/clip/UgkxtZoam2QXoAnECfdkl4uyJ_cljiuV-2fY?si=BVGwZIK3-LDjqQPI

[HuscurAdam]

56 minutes ago, hskr4life said:

We just have to finish Top 4.  There’s NO WAY they’d leave out a team who finishes top 4 in this conference!

 

This means we absolutely have to finish AT LEAST 10-1 in the non-conference. If we don't have a win over a non-con tourney team (looking at you KSU & Crayton), then we won't make the tourney no matter how high we finish in the B1G. The committee will look for any excuse to leave us out and that would be an easy thing to point to.

[OmahaHusker]

10 minutes ago, HuscurAdam said:

 

This means we absolutely have to finish AT LEAST 10-1 in the non-conference. If we don't have a win over a non-con tourney team (looking at you KSU & Crayton), then we won't make the tourney no matter how high we finish in the B1G. The committee will look for any excuse to leave us out and that would be an easy thing to point to.

 

After watching most of that KSU game last night, they didn't look the greatest. A lot of iso ball. 

[aphilso1]

1 hour ago, hskr4life said:

We just have to finish Top 4.  There’s NO WAY they’d leave out a team who finishes top 4 in this conference!

 

Too soon. 

[busticket]

1 hour ago, OmahaHusker said:

 

After watching most of that KSU game last night, they didn't look the greatest. A lot of iso ball. 

Arthur Kaluma was pretty bad for K State.  I really hope we beat those guys.  

[hskr4life]

If you look at Trankology…

 

With the Creighton game being at home and results from last night, it has our lowest win percentage chance in that KSU game and the only two games we’re below 50% win chance before Christmas are Creighton (43% win) and KSU (36% win)

 

MSU is now a 50/50 toss up and Minny is 61% win chance.

 

So we’ve got a chance to do some damage before Christmas.

[millerhusker]

1 hour ago, OmahaHusker said:

 

After watching most of that KSU game last night, they didn't look the greatest. A lot of iso ball. 

Same style of play as last year. They just happened to have two of the top 10-15 players in the country to give the ball to. They'll be a mess this year. 

[TourneyBound]

2 hours ago, hskr4life said:

If you look at Trankology…

 

With the Creighton game being at home and results from last night, it has our lowest win percentage chance in that KSU game and the only two games we’re below 50% win chance before Christmas are Creighton (43% win) and KSU (36% win)

 

MSU is now a 50/50 toss up and Minny is 61% win chance.

 

So we’ve got a chance to do some damage before Christmas.

 

Id much rather get MSU early in year than later thats for sure!!

[49r]

[Norm Peterson]

Congrats to Tim Miles. I don't know where they started out the season, but they beat UC Irvine last night by 8.

 

Kenpom has Irvine at #105 this morning after the loss, so I'm guessing they started out around #100.

 

San Jose has bumped up to #158 from wherever they started out. (Perhaps @49r can fill in those blanks?)

 

Big test this weekend as Grant McCasland's T Tech Red Raiders take on Tim's San Jose St Spartans.

 

And it's a win for me no matter the outcome.

[49r]

@Norm Peterson San José State was KP #170 before last night's game.  Next game is against non-D1 Bethesda.  And thanks for reminding me, I was meaning to put a Tim Miles update in this thread, but kept forgetting to.  That game this weekend at Texas Tech is projecting to the their second-toughest game of the season.

 

 

2024 Schedule 

Game Plan | Opponent Tracker

Date	Rk	Opponent		Result			Location	Record	Conf
Tue Nov 7	170	105	UC Irvine	W, 72-64	73		Home	1-0
Thu Nov 9		NR	Bethesda	W		100%	Home
Sun Nov 12		45	Texas Tech	L, 72-59	66	13%	Away
Fri Nov 17		142	Abilene Christian	L, 71-70	70	47%	Neutral
Mon Nov 27		213	North Dakota St.	W, 74-68	69	73%	Home
Wed Nov 29		342	Cal Poly	W, 70-62	68	77%	Away
Sat Dec 2		192	Montana	L, 70-69	68	45%	Away
Mon Dec 4		213	North Dakota St.	W, 72-71	69	50%	Away
Sat Dec 9		294	New Orleans	W, 79-68	72	84%	Home
Sun Dec 17		192	Montana	W, 72-67	68	68%	Home
Wed Dec 20		150	Santa Clara	W, 74-71	71	60%	Home
Tue Jan 2		214	Wyoming	W, 71-70	69	50%	Away		×
Fri Jan 5		62	Boise St.	L, 73-68	69	35%	Home		×
Tue Jan 9		24	San Diego St.	L, 74-65	70	21%	Home		×
Sat Jan 13		184	Air Force	L, 65-63	65	43%	Away		×
Tue Jan 16		97	Fresno St.	L, 70-64	68	29%	Away		×
Wed Jan 24		40	New Mexico	L, 78-71	72	26%	Home		×
Sat Jan 27		76	UNLV	L, 74-71	71	41%	Home		×
Tue Jan 30		98	Utah St.	L, 73-67	69	29%	Away		×
Fri Feb 2		69	Nevada	L, 75-66	70	19%	Away		×
Tue Feb 6		97	Fresno St.	W, 68-67	68	52%	Home		×
Fri Feb 9		73	Colorado St.	L, 77-68	70	20%	Away		×
Tue Feb 13		184	Air Force	W, 66-62	65	66%	Home		×
Sat Feb 17		214	Wyoming	W, 73-67	69	73%	Home		×
Tue Feb 20		62	Boise St.	L, 76-65	69	17%	Away		×
Fri Feb 23		69	Nevada	L, 72-69	70	38%	Home		×
Tue Feb 27		24	San Diego St.	L, 77-61	70	8%	Away		×
Sat Mar 2		76	UNLV	L, 77-68	71	21%	Away		×
Wed Mar 6		98	Utah St.	W, 71-70	69	52%	Home		×
Projected record:								14-15	6-12
Chance of unbeaten record:								0.00%	0.00%
Chance of winless record:									0.02%

 

[Norm Peterson]

We shot up to #54 after that win last night. If memory serves me, I think Kenpom projected us winning 82-58. We won 81-54, so we did slightly better MOV-wise than expected. I don't know if that's why we jumped a spot, but I'm guessing it didn't hurt, so ...

 

@49r can you post a graphic of Kenpom's season predictions for us so we know how we're supposed to do MOV-wise? Thx

[49r]

Big jump for Iowa after their 42 point win against North Dakota (this is why MOV is important folks!).  Michigan State tumbles a few spots more to 31 and Maryland also falls after a lackluster win Tuesday.  San José State moves up one spot to #157 after smoking NCCAA Division 1 (note the "extra" C there) Bethesda University 117-72.  Non-con opponent rankings stay pretty much the same.

 

---

 

 

KenPom rankings as of 11-10-23

=======================

 

B1G (0-0):
1. Purdue
16. Wisconsin
20. Illinois
30. Maryland
31. Michigan State
38. Michigan
44. Iowa
46. Ohio State
49. Northwestern
52. Indiana
54. Nebraska
70. Rutgers
77. Penn State
113. Minnesota

 

 

Non-Conference (2-0):
355. Lindenwood - W

345. Florida A&M - W

---Cornhusker Classic---
227. Rider
277. Stony Brook

---Sanford Pentagon---
173. Oregon State

 

---Cornhusker Classic---

91. Duquesne

 

186. Cal State Fullerton

11. Creighton
34. @Kansas State
269. North Dakota

349. South Carolina State

[49r]

and per @Norm Peterson request here is a screenshot of the predicted MOV's for the rest of our schedule according to Pomeroy's computer.  Also of note is the fact that we picked up a predicted conference win and are up to 18 wins predicted overall:

 

2024 Schedule 

Game Plan | Opponent Tracker

Date	Rk	Opponent		Result			Location	Record	Conf
Mon Nov 6	58	355	Lindenwood	W, 84-52	71		Home	1-0
Thu Nov 9	55	345	Florida A&M	W, 81-54	76		Home	2-0
Mon Nov 13		227	Rider	W, 82-66	73	93%	Home
Wed Nov 15		277	Stony Brook	W, 82-63	71	95%	Home
Sat Nov 18		173	Oregon St.	W, 77-67	71	80%	Neutral
Wed Nov 22		91	Duquesne	W, 79-71	74	77%	Home
Sun Nov 26		186	Cal St. Fullerton	W, 80-66	74	89%	Home
Sun Dec 3		11	Creighton	L, 77-73	73	36%	Home
Wed Dec 6		113	Minnesota	W, 75-71	72	61%	Away		×
Sun Dec 10		31	Michigan St.	L, 71-70	71	48%	Home		×
Sun Dec 17		34	Kansas St.	L, 78-72	75	28%	Away
Wed Dec 20		269	North Dakota	W, 86-67	75	96%	Home
Fri Dec 29		349	South Carolina St.	W, 89-63	76	99%	Home
Wed Jan 3		52	Indiana	W, 74-71	72	61%	Home		×
Sat Jan 6		16	Wisconsin	L, 79-70	73	21%	Away		×
Tue Jan 9		1	Purdue	L, 78-71	72	24%	Home		×
Fri Jan 12		44	Iowa	L, 83-78	76	32%	Away		×
Wed Jan 17		70	Rutgers	L, 71-70	71	45%	Away		×
Sat Jan 20		49	Northwestern	W, 73-71	72	58%	Home		×
Tue Jan 23		46	Ohio St.	W, 75-73	71	57%	Home		×
Sat Jan 27		30	Maryland	L, 76-69	71	26%	Away		×
Thu Feb 1		16	Wisconsin	L, 76-73	73	41%	Home		×
Sun Feb 4		20	Illinois	L, 79-71	74	22%	Away		×
Wed Feb 7		49	Northwestern	L, 74-70	72	35%	Away		×
Sat Feb 10		38	Michigan	W, 76-75	73	54%	Home		×
Sat Feb 17		77	Penn St.	W, 78-71	74	72%	Home		×
Wed Feb 21		52	Indiana	L, 74-71	72	37%	Away		×
Sun Feb 25		113	Minnesota	W, 78-68	72	81%	Home		×
Thu Feb 29		46	Ohio St.	L, 76-71	71	34%	Away		×
Sun Mar 3		70	Rutgers	W, 73-68	71	68%	Home		×
Sun Mar 10		38	Michigan	L, 78-72	73	31%	Away		×
Projected record:								18-13	9-11
Chance of unbeaten record:								0.00%	0.00%
Chance of winless record:									0.00%

 

[hskr4life]

Pretty much the same for Bart T

 

https://barttorvik.com/team.php?team=Nebraska

[49r]

1 hour ago, Norm Peterson said:

@49r can you post a graphic of Kenpom's season predictions for us so we know how we're supposed to do MOV-wise? Thx

 

Don't forget @Norm Peterson if you are too stingy to pay for a KenPom sub, Bart Torvik's site is a reasonable facsimile for free.  (plus he has us ranked quite a bit higher than Ken so it makes you feel better looking at it).

 

https://www.barttorvik.com/#

 

Edited November 10, 2023 by 49r