Forecasting 2023-24 lineup

[TourneyBound]

On 7/18/2023 at 5:14 PM, MichHusker said:

When I went to the coaches clinic a few months back I noticed a white board that kept score for various individual shooting drills for each member of the team. Lloyd's score was like the 2nd or 3rd lowest including walkons. On the other end, CJ had the 2nd highest

After seeing a few box scores in Spain this seems about right on with Lloyd.  He did dish the ball and rebound though but his shooting definitely needs some work yet....

[Norm Peterson]

2 hours ago, millerhusker said:

I'm not sure what the starting lineup will be. What will be interesting to me is seeing who will be on the court to finish games, and how that lineup evolves as the season goes on. 

 

G - Jarron Coleman  6-5  Sr.   We needed a ball handler, especially for late game situations. He's got the ball on a string, as they say. 

G - Keisei Tominaga  6-2  Sr.  

G - Jamarques Lawrence  6-3  Soph.   I trust him with the ball in his hands. His FT shooting last year doesn't concern me. He has flawless shooting form and he'll get it figured out.  The value of a great on-ball isolation perimeter defender goes up late in the game, and he has the potential to be Tai Webster-esque in this area. He'll guard the other team's best guard. 

G - Brice Williams  6-7  Jr.

F - Rienk Mast  6-10  Jr.

 

If we need some more help securing rebounds against certain teams, I could see Allick in there alongside Mast. Love Juwan, but he's a bit erratic with the ball in his hands and a well below average free throw shooter. He more than makes up for that with his play throughout the game, but it can hurt ya in late game situations. Special mention to Sam Hoiberg. His late-game free throw shooting and defense helped us seal multiple wins last year. Kid has some stones. 

 

I don't differ from you significantly.

 

However, CJ appears to have put in the work. Don't forget about him.

 

I was close to writing him out of the lineup heading into Spain. But what he did there and what the coaches said about him have me changing my mind. He was probably the most consistently productive player we had in Spain. I think there's a good chance he either starts ahead of Brice or ahead of Jamarques.

[Art Vandalay]

23 minutes ago, Norm Peterson said:

 

I don't differ from you significantly.

 

However, CJ appears to have put in the work. Don't forget about him.

 

I was close to writing him out of the lineup heading into Spain. But what he did there and what the coaches said about him have me changing my mind. He was probably the most consistently productive player we had in Spain. I think there's a good chance he either starts ahead of Brice or ahead of Jamarques.

CJ is going to play a lot, I’d bet on that.

I think CJ, JL, and JA are the first three off the bench in an 8 man rotation. Think Fred really like Williams. Unless Boogie doesn’t mesh, then JL might get the start.

 

Rest are battling for the remains time.

 

 Nice thing is when was the last time we had 6+ 35% 3 point shooter on the same squad (3 who have been over 40%). We should be able to score 

[Chuck Taylor]

16 minutes ago, Art Vandalay said:

 Nice thing is when was the last time we had 6+ 35% 3 point shooter on the same squad (3 who have been over 40%). 

Edited August 7, 2023 by Chuck Taylor
Clarification

[Dead Dog Alley]

47 minutes ago, Norm Peterson said:

 

I don't differ from you significantly.

 

However, CJ appears to have put in the work. Don't forget about him.

 

I was close to writing him out of the lineup heading into Spain. But what he did there and what the coaches said about him have me changing my mind. He was probably the most consistently productive player we had in Spain. I think there's a good chance he either starts ahead of Brice or ahead of Jamarques.

 

I think with CJ there might be a point of diminishing marginal utility.

 

He's not exactly Benny Anders; he has to put forward a tremendous amount of effort defensively.  And he does; watch him trying to close out on shooters, and even though he might not be getting there he is still working hard.

 

And it might be the case where the energy he's expending defensively is affecting his shooting.  (Conjecture on my part, sure, but these types of things are always unproveable.)  So, maybe he's more effective as a 16 minute per game guy than at 25 minutes a game?  Just a thought.

[Huskerpapa]

Here is my hope.  No starting position is locked down yet.  Simple message to each player...playing time will be earned.  Your ass will be sitting on the bench if you don't put the team first.  Shoot when you have a good look, make the pass when a teammate has a better look.  Rebounding will be rewarded; as will effort/hustle, defense and high character. 

If we don't have extreme competition for the 200 minutes of playing time per game, then we don't have the depth and skills necessary to take us to the next level.

[Norm Peterson]

23 minutes ago, Dead Dog Alley said:

 

I think with CJ there might be a point of diminishing marginal utility.

 

He's not exactly Benny Anders; he has to put forward a tremendous amount of effort defensively.  And he does; watch him trying to close out on shooters, and even though he might not be getting there he is still working hard.

 

And it might be the case where the energy he's expending defensively is affecting his shooting.  (Conjecture on my part, sure, but these types of things are always unproveable.)  So, maybe he's more effective as a 16 minute per game guy than at 25 minutes a game?  Just a thought.

 

One of the things they talked about ... somewhere ... was  that CJ had worked hard in the gym to transform his body in the offseason. And what we saw  him do in Spain in terms of the numbers  he put up seems to reflect that.

 

Just sayin don't sleep on Seej.

[thrasher31]

2 minutes ago, Norm Peterson said:

 

One of the things they talked about ... somewhere ... was  that CJ had worked hard in the gym to transform his body in the offseason. And what we saw  him do in Spain in terms of the numbers  he put up seems to reflect that.

 

Just sayin don't sleep on Seej.

It's in the best interest of the team for CJ to play good imo. Him playing well unlocks a very lethal 5-out lineup with him, Brice, and mast in the front court with keisei and fill in guard in the backcourt. 

 

I do think coming off the bench, similar to what he did his first year, should help. If it doesn't work or he's not playing well, at least you have a few options in rice or Brice. Could go 3 guards also

[royalfan]

It may be the case where the rotation will change on.a game to game basis.  I would like to see implementation of the hot hand approach, rather than an "NBA" rotation where certain guys know when they are coming in and out. 

[Norm Peterson]

2 hours ago, thrasher31 said:

It's in the best interest of the team for CJ to play good imo. Him playing well unlocks a very lethal 5-out lineup with him, Brice, and mast in the front court with keisei and fill in guard in the backcourt. 

 

I do think coming off the bench, similar to what he did his first year, should help. If it doesn't work or he's not playing well, at least you have a few options in rice or Brice. Could go 3 guards also

 

I don't know. I'm not 100% sure. I think it might be "well."

[Norm Peterson]

Y'know, I just don't know. Spain has possibly left me with more questions than answers.

 

One possible lineup:

 

PG 6'5

2G 6'2

3G 6'7

S4 6'8

5 6'10

 

Which we could do if and only if we had at least one other solid guy in the big man rotation.

 

Another possible lineup:

 

PG 6'5

2G 6'2

3G 6'5

4G 6'7

C 6'10

 

That is probably the best 3-pt% offense with reasonable rebounding.

 

Who sees Juwan Gary cracking the starting rotation?

[49r]

7 minutes ago, Norm Peterson said:

Who sees Juwan Gary cracking the starting rotation?

 

@49r

[millerhusker]

52 minutes ago, Norm Peterson said:

Who sees Juwan Gary cracking the starting rotation?

It depends. If Brice starts the game at the "3", with Keisei and Jarron in the backcourt, I'd prefer to have Juwan on the court for defensive versatility and to guard the opponent's best wing. I worry about Brice's lateral quickness and ability to guard athletic B1G wings. With that lineup, I wouldn't feel confident in our 1-2-3 guys to guard the Terrence Shannons of the world. But Juwan can guard anyone. I believe Brice is better off guarding "4s" in the Big Ten, much like CJ did towards the end of last season. 

[millerhusker]

Minutes per game last season. For Keisei, Sam, CJ and Jamarques I just used the last 1/3 of the season when we had our rotation figured out, which was very solid, and beat multiple NCAA and NIT tourney teams. 

Reminder: there are only 200 total minutes each game to divvy up between players. As the season goes on, the significant minutes will go to 7-9 players. 

 

Jarron Coleman - 34 mpg

Keisei Tominaga - 34 mpg

Josiah Allick - 32 mpg

Juwan Gary - 30 mpg

Jamarques Lawrence - 29 mpg

Rienk Mast - 29 mpg

Brice Williams - 27 mpg

CJ Wilcher - 23 mpg

Sam Hoiberg - 22 mpg

Blaise Keita - 10 mpg

 

Did not play last year: Eli Rice, Matar Diop, Cale Jacobson, Ramel Lloyd. 

[hugh42]

25 minutes ago, millerhusker said:

Minutes per game last season. For Keisei, Sam, CJ and Jamarques I just used the last 1/3 of the season when we had our rotation figured out, which was very solid, and beat multiple NCAA and NIT tourney teams. 

Reminder: there are only 200 total minutes each game to divvy up between players. As the season goes on, the significant minutes will go to 7-9 players. 

 

Jarron Coleman - 34 mpg

Keisei Tominaga - 34 mpg

Josiah Allick - 32 mpg

Juwan Gary - 30 mpg

Jamarques Lawrence - 29 mpg

Rienk Mast - 29 mpg

Brice Williams - 27 mpg

CJ Wilcher - 23 mpg

Sam Hoiberg - 22 mpg

Blaise Keita - 10 mpg

 

Did not play last year: Eli Rice, Matar Diop, Cale Jacobson, Ramel Lloyd. 

 

It will be interesting to see how the minutes are distributed this season. The first 8 on the list will average double figure minutes (guessing 20-32 mpg). If Rice continues to surprise, he could as well.

[aphilso1]

2 hours ago, millerhusker said:

Minutes per game last season. For Keisei, Sam, CJ and Jamarques I just used the last 1/3 of the season when we had our rotation figured out, which was very solid, and beat multiple NCAA and NIT tourney teams. 

Reminder: there are only 200 total minutes each game to divvy up between players. As the season goes on, the significant minutes will go to 7-9 players. 

 

Jarron Coleman - 34 mpg

Keisei Tominaga - 34 mpg

Josiah Allick - 32 mpg

Juwan Gary - 30 mpg

Jamarques Lawrence - 29 mpg

Rienk Mast - 29 mpg

Brice Williams - 27 mpg

CJ Wilcher - 23 mpg

Sam Hoiberg - 22 mpg

Blaise Keita - 10 mpg

 

Did not play last year: Eli Rice, Matar Diop, Cale Jacobson, Ramel Lloyd. 

 

Interesting point. There are only 200 minutes to divvy up and we have a team that returns a cumulative 270 minutes per game.  So 70 minutes needs to be trimmed from somewhere, and that's not even taking into account any minutes distributed to Rice/Diop/Jacobson/Lloyd. From that perspective it certainly looks like we have a team with a wealth of experience and depth. We may not have the top end talent of some other teams in the league, but the end of our rotation should be stronger than just about anyone else's that we play.

[Chuck Taylor]

1 hour ago, aphilso1 said:

 

Interesting point. There are only 200 minutes to divvy up and we have a team that returns a cumulative 270 minutes per game.  So 70 minutes needs to be trimmed from somewhere, and that's not even taking into account any minutes distributed to Rice/Diop/Jacobson/Lloyd. From that perspective it certainly looks like we have a team with a wealth of experience and depth. We may not have the top end talent of some other teams in the league, but the end of our rotation should be stronger than just about anyone else's that we play.

Bart Torvik backs you up on that. We rank 1st in the BIG in experience.

[Norm Peterson]

2 hours ago, aphilso1 said:

 

Interesting point. There are only 200 minutes to divvy up and we have a team that returns a cumulative 270 minutes per game.  So 70 minutes needs to be trimmed from somewhere, and that's not even taking into account any minutes distributed to Rice/Diop/Jacobson/Lloyd. From that perspective it certainly looks like we have a team with a wealth of experience and depth. We may not have the top end talent of some other teams in the league, but the end of our rotation should be stronger than just about anyone else's that we play.

 

Keep in mind that Lawrence and Gary played big minutes in opposite halves of the season. So, their averages are going to  look  a little distorted.

[Huskerpapa]

21 hours ago, Norm Peterson said:

 

One of the things they talked about ... somewhere ... was  that CJ had worked hard in the gym to transform his body in the offseason. And what we saw  him do in Spain in terms of the numbers  he put up seems to reflect that.

 

Just sayin don't sleep on Seej.

Wasn't that last year?  He had changed his eating habits and so forth.  Perhaps he has continued to do the right things and will truly elevate his game this season.

[Fullbacksympathy]

17 hours ago, Norm Peterson said:

Who sees Juwan Gary cracking the starting rotation?

 

If he's healthy he might be our best two way player.  His energy and defensive ability change games enough to win some of them.  He, Mast, and Allick provide a decent amount of versatility at the 4-5.  I could see Allick getting the same minutes as both of them because he can play the 4 or 5.  Gary can't play the 5, Mast can't play the 4, and I don't think Allick is a better 4 than Gary.  

 

So you might see lineups where we are doing the PITA half court offense run through Mast, who should look a hell of a lot like Walker last season.  But you could also run Gary and Allick at the 4-5 and have an insanely fast front court who can jump through the roof and help a ton with perimeter defense.   

[Fullbacksympathy]

2 minutes ago, Huskerpapa said:

Wasn't that last year?  He had changed his eating habits and so forth.  Perhaps he has continued to do the right things and will truly elevate his game this season.

 

Yes he did, but I think he had another 20lbs to lose.  

[royalfan]

20 minutes ago, Norm Peterson said:

 

Keep in mind that Lawrence and Gary played big minutes in opposite halves of the season. So, their averages are going to  look  a little distorted.

Gary’s isn’t disturbed on per game basis as nothing changed about his role while playing minutes.  Lawrence is though as any game he saw spot minutes doesn’t really count.  

[aphilso1]

36 minutes ago, Norm Peterson said:

 

Keep in mind that Lawrence and Gary played big minutes in opposite halves of the season. So, their averages are going to  look  a little distorted.

 

OK, well let's look at it a different way.  We lost two players from our end of season starting lineup. We replaced them with three starters from other D1 teams. That alone is an experience upgrade. But then we also returned another player who was a regular starter prior to season-ending injury, and added a 6th man who was actually his team's best player and would've started if he was more selfish. 

 

Essentially, we have 8 guys on our roster who are used to being starters. Not just 8 guys with D1 experience, or 8 guys who have gotten a spot start now and again, but 8 guys who are used to being a top 5 player on a D1 team.  That is absolutely huge.  We can conceivably field a rotation solely of guys with extensive D1 starting experience.  I can't imagine there are many schools around the country that can do that.

Edited August 8, 2023 by aphilso1

[Norm Peterson]

55 minutes ago, aphilso1 said:

 

OK, well let's look at it a different way.  We lost two players from our end of season starting lineup. We replaced them with three starters from other D1 teams. That alone is an experience upgrade. But then we also returned another player who was a regular starter prior to season-ending injury, and added a 6th man who was actually his team's best player and would've started if he was more selfish. 

 

Essentially, we have 8 guys on our roster who are used to being starters. Not just 8 guys with D1 experience, or 8 guys who have gotten a spot start now and again, but 8 guys who are used to being a top 5 player on a D1 team.  That is absolutely huge.  We can conceivably field a rotation solely of guys with extensive D1 starting experience.  I can't imagine there are many schools around the country that can do that.

 

I guess my comment was more directed at the combination of your post and the one from @millerhusker you were responding to. I think the indication was we've got guys who've experienced a combined way more minutes than what we could possibly distribute. And, while that's true, keep in mind that Jamarques wasn't averaging 29 min/game until Juwan and his 30/game went down with an injury. So, that one particular number is maybe slightly artificially inflated. Given the injuries last year, it's almost like you could combine them into one guy getting 30 min/game.

 

Still, your point is well-taken and I'm not arguing with it: We have a lot of guys who have been used to playing a lot of minutes.

 

So, here's a question: Which player on our roster for this season started for the best team a year ago?

 

Without looking, I think it's Josiah Allick who was playing 32 min/game for a kenpom roughly top 60 team.

[kldm64]

Now that our roster is finally set (pretty much), this would be my best guess for starting line up

 

Jarron Coleman

Juwan Gary

Keisei Tominaga

Brice Williams

Rient Mast

 

And what is beneficial this year as we have some depth and can adjust the line-up as needed and not drop off much as in past year.  Have a feeling this team could be sneaky good this year.