Projected Rotation and Starting Lineup

[NUdiehard]

What is your projected starting lineup and who will be the 8-10 rotational players?

 

My projected starting lineup:

PG - Griesel

SG - Bando

SF - Wilcher

PF - Wilhelm

C  - Walker

 

Other rotational players:

Keita - C

Gary - PF

LLoyd - PG/SG/SF

Keisei - SG

 

Dawson and Lawrence will be battling for for playing time.  If Keisei struggles again early this year, Lawrence may get some of his minutes.  After listening to the press conference (and the Sam Hoiberg show on 93.7), it was surprising how many times Fred brought up Dawson's name unsolicited.  Based on what I saw of Dawson in warm-ups last year, and what limited amount Fred has said about him, it appears clear that Dawson has a ways to go on his shot, but he must be impressing on the defensive end.  Fred said he is leading the team in deflections in practice, and even commented that he considered pulling his RS last year (but concluded that would not be fair to him since he didn't arrive until after semester).  I had not planned on anything from Dawson this year, but if he can give 4-8 minutes of intense defense and hustle, and just not screw up on offense, he might be able to find a small role. 

 

McPherson is out for the season with his injury and I don't see Oleg getting any meaningful minutes this year. 

 

Although I think Bando will start at SG, I think he will also be the backup PG, so Fred will have to stagger his minutes.  Maybe Bando gets pulled early to get a breather, and then inserted back in at PG when Griesel comes out for a break, and so forth.  Question is whether this will throw off the continuity of Griesel and Bando playing together strong starter minutes.

 

I am not expecting a lot of Keita this year.  But it sounds like he is a quick learner and is picking up the defense well.  Fred said he is leading the team in taking charges (which I am not sure i want from my big man, but oh well).  But if Keita can come in and be a tall and strong backup and play solid fundamental defense, that could be quite valuable for this team, especially against some of the giant centers in the B1G.  I don't see him being much of a scorer, so others will have to pick up the slack on the offensive end.  I don't see Keita and Walker playing together, and frankly think that would be a disaster.  So Keita's minutes are going to be somewhat limited unless he could really impress enough to take some of Walkers minutes.  But at this point, I just don't see him starting any games as long as Walker is healthy.  If I am wrong on this, that would be great, because that would mean he is even more impactful that Walker, but that is a lot to ask of a first year juco.

 

Wildcard:  If Huskers have an injury or foul trouble, it is possible Cale Jacobson could be inserted for a few minutes to run the PG.  But if it gets to this point, probably means something has gone wrong or not as expected. 

[millerhusker]

8 minutes ago, NUdiehard said:

What is your projected starting lineup and who will be the 8-10 rotational players?

 

My projected starting lineup:

PG - Griesel

SG - Bando

SF - Wilcher

PF - Wilhelm

C  - Walker

 

Other rotational players:

Keita - C

Gary - PF

LLoyd - PG/SG/SF

Keisei - SG

 

Dawson and Lawrence will be battling for for playing time.  If Keisei struggles again early this year, Lawrence may get some of his minutes.  After listening to the press conference (and the Sam Hoiberg show on 93.7), it was surprising how many times Fred brought up Dawson's name unsolicited.  Based on what I saw of Dawson in warm-ups last year, and what limited amount Fred has said about him, it appears clear that Dawson has a ways to go on his shot, but he must be impressing on the defensive end.  Fred said he is leading the team in deflections in practice, and even commented that he considered pulling his RS last year (but concluded that would not be fair to him since he didn't arrive until after semester).  I had not planned on anything from Dawson this year, but if he can give 4-8 minutes of intense defense and hustle, and just not screw up on offense, he might be able to find a small role. 

 

McPherson is out for the season with his injury and I don't see Oleg getting any meaningful minutes this year. 

 

Although I think Bando will start at SG, I think he will also be the backup PG, so Fred will have to stagger his minutes.  Maybe Bando gets pulled early to get a breather, and then inserted back in at PG when Griesel comes out for a break, and so forth.  Question is whether this will throw off the continuity of Griesel and Bando playing together strong starter minutes.

 

I am not expecting a lot of Keita this year.  But it sounds like he is a quick learner and is picking up the defense well.  Fred said he is leading the team in taking charges (which I am not sure i want from my big man, but oh well).  But if Keita can come in and be a tall and strong backup and play solid fundamental defense, that could be quite valuable for this team, especially against some of the giant centers in the B1G.  I don't see him being much of a scorer, so others will have to pick up the slack on the offensive end.  I don't see Keita and Walker playing together, and frankly think that would be a disaster.  So Keita's minutes are going to be somewhat limited unless he could really impress enough to take some of Walkers minutes.  But at this point, I just don't see him starting any games as long as Walker is healthy.  If I am wrong on this, that would be great, because that would mean he is even more impactful that Walker, but that is a lot to ask of a first year juco.

 

Wildcard:  If Huskers have an injury or foul trouble, it is possible Cale Jacobson could be inserted for a few minutes to run the PG.  But if it gets to this point, probably means something has gone wrong or not as expected. 

I can't imagine Gary not starting. Fred loves him. He was a part-time starter on a team that was #6 in the country at one point last year. The year prior, he was a rotation player on a team that ended up as a 2 seed in the NCAA tourney. We need guys who are used to winning. And we need grit and toughness. He brings all of that. He lacks skill for sure, but seems to make up for it with effort and physicality. I'd swap him for Wilhelm. The rest of the starting lineup I agree with. I think Ramel, Wilhelm and Keita will be the main three off the bench. Just about everyone will probably get playing time early in the year. But, eventually I think that will be the 8 man rotation. I wouldn't be upset if Lawrence surprised us and became a solid 3 and D guy off the bench, though. 

[aphilso1]

STARTERS

Griesel

Bando

Wilcher

Gary

Walker

 

ROTATION

Wilhelm

Lloyd

Keita

Dawson

 

 

The starters seem somewhat obvious to me so I won't spend much time going into analysis on those 5.  I think Gary starts for the reasons millerhusker said above, but that starting lineup is a little short.  Breidenbach as the 6th man gives you length, and Gary has enough defensive versatility that you can see him on the floor at the same time as the lateral quickness-challenged trio of Wil, CJ, and DW. I'd guess that most games will see Wil as first man off the bench, either as a direct replacement for Gary or as a way of adding length while Gary shifts up and guards the other team's 2 or 3.

 

I haven't heard much said about Lloyd this offseason, which does worry me.  But on a team full of hustle guys and role players, he looks like the only one who has star potential.  I just feel like talent alone should be enough to get him into the top 7 on the team in terms of minutes played. 

 

Keita will be a big body in a league that requires you to play lots of big bodies.  Hard to see him not making the rotation, but I think we will be disappointed considering how hyped his recruitment was.  My guess is he will be defensively ready but lacking the offensive capability that some are expecting.  

 

Dawson sure has been talked up as a spark plug  ever since getting to campus.  Gotta be enough to sneak his way into that final rotation spot, right?  I'm guessing some games he doesn't play at all, and others he plays significant minutes for us.  Such is the life of an end-of-the-rotation player.

 

Everyone else will still play.  HCFH knows he needs all hands on deck this year if he wants any hope of seeing a next year.  No redshirts, but also no meaningful minutes from the rest of the crew.  Keisei could be the exception if he is subbed in and gets hot from 3, but his lack of any other basketball skill will keep him from playing regularly.

[The Polish Rifle]

36 minutes ago, aphilso1 said:

STARTERS

Griesel

Bando

Wilcher

Gary

Walker

 

ROTATION

Wilhelm

Lloyd

Keita

Dawson

I like this roster, lotta DAWG in this group. Inject the Kool Aid straight into my veins. Bubble Team.   

[aphilso1]

10 minutes ago, The Polish Rifle said:

I like this roster, lotta DAWG in this group. Inject the Kool Aid straight into my veins. Bubble Team.   

 

Who gets buckets for us?  Walker and CJ should be our top 2 scorers, and neither can dribble or create their own shot.  We also don't have a true PG to set them up for open looks.  Seems unreasonable that Sam can fill both of those missing roles (shot creator, both for himself and others).

 

Not sure this roster can consistently put up 60 points per game.  Gonna need to keep the other team in the 50's, which is a very tall task.  

[basketballjones]

8 minutes ago, aphilso1 said:

 

Who gets buckets for us?

No one. You ever watched a late season Iowa/Penn State football game? 

[Handy Johnson]

Jacobson will be much MORE of a factor then expected. 

Edited September 29, 2022 by Handy Johnson

[OmahaHusker]

35 minutes ago, The Polish Rifle said:

Bubble Team.   

 

[OmahaHusker]

19 minutes ago, aphilso1 said:

Who gets buckets for us? 

 

Griesel and CJ 

[basketballjones]

13 minutes ago, Handy Johnson said:

Jacobson will be much MORE of a factor then expected. 

Edited September 29, 2022 by basketballjones

[Crush78]

I think 7 spots are pretty well set for being in the rotation

Griesell

Bandumel

Wilcher

Gary

Breidenbach

Walker

Keita

 

That leaves 4 guys battling  for basically the back up wing minutes, probaly see all 4 for stretches in the 1st few games before a pecking order established

Lloyd

Dawson

Keisei

Lawrence

 

And that leaves walk ons & Oleg as guys who probably aren't seeing meaningful minutes unless their are multiple injuries.

Edited September 29, 2022 by Crush78

[basketballjones]

Whatever they do I hope that they do not settle on a starting line-up right away and then go with it for the rest of the season no matter what. Play with the line-up, plan ahead on line-ups you're going to try out, etc... Don't make a "promotion/demotion" thing - let the team know ahead of time you have about 3 or 4 line-ups you want to try and they're already predetermined. 

[The Polish Rifle]

32 minutes ago, aphilso1 said:

 

Who gets buckets for us?  Walker and CJ should be our top 2 scorers, and neither can dribble or create their own shot.  We also don't have a true PG to set them up for open looks.  Seems unreasonable that Sam can fill both of those missing roles (shot creator, both for himself and others).

 

Not sure this roster can consistently put up 60 points per game.  Gonna need to keep the other team in the 50's, which is a very tall task.  

This is pure, uncut, Columbian Koolaid....its based on nothing but hopes and dreams. 

[aphilso1]

54 minutes ago, The Polish Rifle said:

This is pure, uncut, Columbian Koolaid....its based on nothing but hopes and dreams. 

 

I admire the fans who still drink the Koolaid.  Wish I was one of you.

[basketballjones]

10 minutes ago, aphilso1 said:

 

I admire the fans who still drink the Koolaid.  Wish I was one of you.

You didn't ask for this post so sorry for quoting you personally haha.
But personally... I've made a choice to drink the kool aid. I believe social media, "insider" boards, constant media attention, have taken a huge amount of the fun out sports and fandom. We've all become so fatalistic about our sports teams and it's really tiring and annoying. I've gotten to the point where I've chosen to start each season with a clean slate and be an optimist.

I no longer see the value of being realistic, and, effectively, wishing (subconsciously and consciously) for your team to perform poorly so that it matches your opinion/beliefs/predictions. I see a lot of that happening. And I irrationally believe in the power of "positive energy." I think Husker Football, especially, has been doomed by all of the negative energy and camps that have been built up due to "Coach X" being hired/fired. There were people all over the insider boards who called Pelini's, Riley's, Frost's failure from the start. And it seems like they very much enjoyed their predictions being right. And I never understood why they relished in being so negative or "realistic" from the start. I guess I believe in the power of positive energy. 

Every team starts each year or era with obvious flaws/holes. I find it a lot more fun to believe our coach will fix those and let it happen. Maybe I get let-down? To me, personally, it's better than playing the "I told you so" game that so many of my friends like to play. I find myself during Husker Football and Basketball games being the "Dude - can we just watch and cheer the game? I don't care what you read on your insider board about why you know they'll fail." 

That's just me! 

[OmahaHusker]

5 minutes ago, basketballjones said:

You didn't ask for this post so sorry for quoting you personally haha.
But personally... I've made a choice to drink the kool aid. I believe social media, "insider" boards, constant media attention, have taken a huge amount of the fun out sports and fandom. We've all become so fatalistic about our sports teams and it's really tiring and annoying. I've gotten to the point where I've chosen to start each season with a clean slate and be an optimist.

I no longer see the value of being realistic, and, effectively, wishing (subconsciously and consciously) for your team to perform poorly so that it matches your opinion/beliefs/predictions. I see a lot of that happening. And I irrationally believe in the power of "positive energy." I think Husker Football, especially, has been doomed by all of the negative energy and camps that have been built up due to "Coach X" being hired/fired. There were people all over the insider boards who called Pelini's, Riley's, Frost's failure from the start. And it seems like they very much enjoyed their predictions being right. And I never understood why they relished in being so negative or "realistic" from the start. I guess I believe in the power of positive energy. 

Every team starts each year or era with obvious flaws/holes. I find it a lot more fun to believe our coach will fix those and let it happen. Maybe I get let-down? To me, personally, it's better than playing the "I told you so" game that so many of my friends like to play. I find myself during Husker Football and Basketball games being the "Dude - can we just watch and cheer the game? I don't care what you read on your insider board about why you know they'll fail." 

That's just me! 

 

Agree with your post in a sense, especially when it comes to the unknown like the new players we have this year. The issue for me, much like with Frost, is what has the HC done to make me think this year will be substantially different than the last? That can't be ignored. 9-50 in B1G play is not just bad luck. So I can understand being a realist in that sense. But in regards to the new players themselves, we have no idea how they'll fair in the B1G, so the hope is still very real.  

[cornfed24-7]

2 hours ago, The Polish Rifle said:

I like this roster, lotta DAWG in this group. Inject the Kool Aid straight into my veins. Bubble Team.   

I love the enthusiasm of a new season

[cornfed24-7]

28 minutes ago, basketballjones said:

You didn't ask for this post so sorry for quoting you personally haha.
But personally... I've made a choice to drink the kool aid. I believe social media, "insider" boards, constant media attention, have taken a huge amount of the fun out sports and fandom. We've all become so fatalistic about our sports teams and it's really tiring and annoying. I've gotten to the point where I've chosen to start each season with a clean slate and be an optimist.

I no longer see the value of being realistic, and, effectively, wishing (subconsciously and consciously) for your team to perform poorly so that it matches your opinion/beliefs/predictions. I see a lot of that happening. And I irrationally believe in the power of "positive energy." I think Husker Football, especially, has been doomed by all of the negative energy and camps that have been built up due to "Coach X" being hired/fired. There were people all over the insider boards who called Pelini's, Riley's, Frost's failure from the start. And it seems like they very much enjoyed their predictions being right. And I never understood why they relished in being so negative or "realistic" from the start. I guess I believe in the power of positive energy. 

Every team starts each year or era with obvious flaws/holes. I find it a lot more fun to believe our coach will fix those and let it happen. Maybe I get let-down? To me, personally, it's better than playing the "I told you so" game that so many of my friends like to play. I find myself during Husker Football and Basketball games being the "Dude - can we just watch and cheer the game? I don't care what you read on your insider board about why you know they'll fail." 

That's just me! 

Hell even I'm starting to come around. You know if this break this way...and that breaks that way...then maybe...just maybe...BUBBLE TEAM! MY MAN POLISH RIFLE!

[hskr4life]

21 minutes ago, cornfed24-7 said:

I love the enthusiasm of a new season

I mean, we do have the same record as the likes of Duke and KU this many games into the season, so bubble contention isn’t out of the question.  Every team is a bubble team until they ain’t.

[Fullbacksympathy]

3 hours ago, aphilso1 said:

STARTERS

Griesel

Bando

Wilcher

Gary

Walker

I’ve got this starting 5 as well.  Griesel and Bando can create shots, and Wilcher is a good kick out option who will probably have a little more wiggle to his game with decreased weight.  Gary gets ugly hustle points (and he is a dog on defense) which is something we’ve needed on our roster for a long time, and Walker is just a very good all around player.  This starting 5 would kill last year’s team.  
 

I have no clue what the bench will be and I’m not convinced WB can play the 4 due to his lack of quickness.  I’d rather have him be a stretch 5 but Keita is a true 5, so we probably have to stick w WB at the 4.  
 

I think Lloyd will get significant minutes as the moment won’t be too big for him. He’s gone against better players already than he’ll often see in college and more than held his own.  What I’m hoping for him is that he has the athleticism/length to guard opposing point guards.  Last season we only had Trey who could do that.  Sam is too slow.  Bando can, I believe. No chance with Wilcher.  Keisei can’t. So it’s gotta be a new guy.  
 

What I do know is there should be very few teams that outrebound us this season or the coach has to go.  He has the bodies.  We’re going to struggle guarding the perimeter but our help defense should be fantastic with our length, strength, and hopefully attitude. 
 

I’m cautiously optimistic that we’ll see some bully ball this year.  It would be nice to have an identity. 

[hhcmatt]

2 hours ago, basketballjones said:

No one. You ever watched a late season Iowa/Penn State football game? 

 

We're going to defer the tip-off to the 2nd half, Doc Style

[hhcmatt]

1 hour ago, OmahaHusker said:

 

Agree with your post in a sense, especially when it comes to the unknown like the new players we have this year. The issue for me, much like with Frost, is what has the HC done to make me think this year will be substantially different than the last? That can't be ignored. 9-50 in B1G play is not just bad luck. So I can understand being a realist in that sense. But in regards to the new players themselves, we have no idea how they'll fair in the B1G, so the hope is still very real.  

 

We flipped the entire coaching staff and he's talking about defense before watching us suck at it during Christmas break.  The results might not change but that's a substantial amount of change.

[basketballjones]

50 minutes ago, Fullbacksympathy said:

I think Lloyd will get significant minutes as the moment won’t be too big for him. He’s gone against better players already than he’ll often see in college and more than held his own.  What I’m hoping for him is that he has the athleticism/length to guard opposing point guards.  Last season we only had Trey who could do that.  Sam is too slow.  Bando can, I believe. No chance with Wilcher.  Keisei can’t. So it’s gotta be a new guy.  

Sam's a lot better at guarding guards than you're probably giving him credit for. He's a big body with good length, allows him to give some space while still being able to contest. 

[hhcmatt]

Can either Gary or Breidenbach or ever Denim Dawson shoot over 30% from 3?  To me if someone can consistently knock down shot from out there they're probably grab more minutes at the 4.  Seems like Gary with his experience will probably start.

 

BTW, looking at Gary and Breidenbach's lifetime 3pt shooting numbers makes playing Derrick Walker at the 4 more realistic. 

[NUdiehard]

3 hours ago, aphilso1 said:

 

Who gets buckets for us?  Walker and CJ should be our top 2 scorers, and neither can dribble or create their own shot.  We also don't have a true PG to set them up for open looks.  Seems unreasonable that Sam can fill both of those missing roles (shot creator, both for himself and others).

 

Not sure this roster can consistently put up 60 points per game.  Gonna need to keep the other team in the 50's, which is a very tall task.  

 

Completely agree this team is going to struggle to score.  With that said, Bando averaged 10.6 pts per game last year shooting six 3s per game (making 2.1 per game) at 35% clip.  Not great percentage, but he clearly is not afraid to shoot and there a solid chance he will be one of the top scorers on the team.   He averaged 10.2 pts per game the previous season so have to believe he will average at least 10 on a team in which he will be a primary scorer.  For comparison, CJ averaged 8.1 pts on four 3s per game last year (but shot a much better percentage at 40.6%). 

 

Sam Griesel averaged 14.3 pts per game, shooting 38% from 3, but at a much lower rate of just 2.2 attempts per game.  Question is how well this will translate to the much higher level of competition.

 

Seems there is a chance NU could have 4 players average 10 pts (or at least close) next season, but unlikely anybody averages more than 12-14 points.  It will have to be a balanced scoring attack.