Coaches that you think should be on Nebraska's list, if this trend continues

[busticket]

9 minutes ago, 49r said:

 

It's interesting to see that people are feeling optimistic 2/3 through this season that they've seen enough improvement year over year to think that perhaps with a little good fortune, next year we can achieve what would have been considered an "average" year under Miles.  

That’s the rub, isn’t it?  I love what I am seeing this year. Much better than the prior three years.  Problem is the shitshow that ensued the first three years post-Miles are all on Fred.  

[hhcmatt]

1 hour ago, Nebrasketball1979 said:

This is where stats can always be used to paint whatever narrative anyone wants.  Fred's record is a fact and not really debatable - it's been horrendous.  If we're getting into the weeds on projections for this individual year, I personally throw those out the window.  I think Robin tweeted out that when our core 5 played together we were something like 7-3 with some debate about whether it was really 6-4.  I don't really care which is right because I know what my eyes told me.  I believed for the first time in many, many years I was watching a competent and dare I say, good, basketball team.  The games against Creighton and Iowa were no flukes.  Nebraska was the better team.  I was in town and watched the heartbreaking loss to Purdue.  The fact that game was close was also not a fluke.  Now, it's super convenient for me or anyone else to give the Fred the benefit of the doubt this year when the sample size I'm referring to is so small.  Again, we have the past 4 years that do not paint a good picture.  And, it certainly is on Fred that our depth isn't where it should have been.  But, it does look to me that our future depth appears to be improving significantly based on what I'm seeing from the young kids. 

 

 

[NUdiehard]

55 minutes ago, 49r said:

 

It's interesting to see that people are feeling optimistic 2/3 through this season that they've seen enough improvement year over year to think that perhaps with a little good fortune, next year we can achieve what would have been considered an "average" year under Miles.  

 

Actually this season, even with all the devastating injuries, is not too far off from an "average" Miles' season.  Miles' average end-of-year KenPom is #87.  NU is currently #98 and was in the low-to-mid 80s before the injuries.  This is why things like strength of schedule matter.  Simply looking at wins/losses is not telling the full picture.

 

This year's team is better than 3 of Miles' teams: 

2013 KenPom #136

2015  KemPom #121

2017 KenPom #107.   

 

And believe it or not, based on these rankings, Fred's 2021 team (KenPom #109) was better than 2 of Miles' teams.

 

Of course, Miles had 2014 (#56) and 2018 (#55), which are significantly better than any of Fred's rankings.  But if there was to be improvement next year, it would likely put Nebraska with at least an equal if not better KenPom ranking than the "average" Miles team. 

Edited February 8, 2023 by NUdiehard

[Nebrasketball1979]

50 minutes ago, 49r said:

 

It's interesting to see that people are feeling optimistic 2/3 through this season that they've seen enough improvement year over year to think that perhaps with a little good fortune, next year we can achieve what would have been considered an "average" year under Miles.  

 

Hey, I didn't want Miles fired either! 

 

It would have been really interesting if Alberts was the AD during Miles' tenure and how things might have turned out differently.  That's Nebrasketball for you in a nutshell. 

[hhcmatt]

Comparing Hoiberg's record to almost any coach is basically an argument to fire him

[Norm Peterson]

1 minute ago, hhcmatt said:

Comparing Hoiberg's record to almost any coach is basically an argument to fire him

 

That's why we're going with his Kenpom rankings.

 

Sons' haircuts is also advantage Fred as is WAGs.

[49r]

55 minutes ago, NUdiehard said:

 

Actually this season, even with all the devastating injuries, is not too far off from an "average" Miles' season.  Miles' average end-of-year KenPom is #87.  NU is currently #98 and was in the low-to-mid 80s before the injuries.  This is why things like strength of schedule matter.  Simply looking at wins/losses is not telling the full picture.

 

This year's team is better than 3 of Miles' teams: 

2013 KenPom #136

2015  KemPom #121

2017 KenPom #107.   

 

And believe it or not, based on these rankings, Fred's 2021 team (KenPom #109) was better than 2 of Miles' teams.

 

Of course, Miles had 2014 (#56) and 2018 (#55), which are significantly better than any of Fred's rankings.  But if there was to be improvement next year, it would likely put Nebraska with at least an equal if not better KenPom ranking than the "average" Miles team. 

 

That's a little disingenuous because you are taking Fred's peak KenPom ranking from this year only vs. Miles' season ending KenPom rankings.  If you want to compare apples to apples...

 

 

---

Here are the respective peak KenPom rankings:

Miles

2013 peaked at #127

2014 peaked at #44

2015 peaked at #34

2016 peaked at #79

2017 peaked at #71

2018 peaked at #50

2019 peaked at #11 (technically I believe we actually popped up to #10 for a day but it's not recorded in KenPom.  I'd have to look through the old KenPom rankings thread for this because I'm sure I was talking about it and checking daily at the time.)

 

Fred

2020 peaked at #96 on opening day

2021 peaked at #91

2022 peaked at #81 again on opening day

2023 peaked at #80 so far

 

 

---

Here's what it looks like for season ending rankings:

Miles

2013 - #136

2014 - #56

2015 - #121

2016 - #85

2017 - #107

2018 - #55

2019 - #47

 

Fred

2020 - #162

2021 - #109

2022 - #140

2023 - TBD (currently sitting at #98)

 

 

---

What I will grant you is Fred typically has had a much stronger SOS to deal with, let's look at how they compare.

Miles

2013 - #8

2014 - #18

2015 - #43

2016 - #73

2017 - #14

2018 - #59

2019 - #9

 

Fred

2020 - #8

2021 - #4

2022 - #37

2023 - #4 so far

 

[HB]

1 hour ago, hhcmatt said:

Comparing Hoiberg's record to almost any coach is basically an argument to fire him

Turns out we're only supposed to look at Ken Pom ratings.

[hhcmatt]

1 hour ago, HB said:

Turns out we're only supposed to look at Ken Pom ratings.

 

Certainly merit to looking at those but they're also 'fire this guy' numbers. Touting the merits of Tim Miles worst 4 years as an equivalent of Fred Hoiberg's career here is as bad as it sounds.

[49r]

8 minutes ago, hhcmatt said:

 

Certainly merit to looking at those but they're also 'fire this guy' numbers. Touting the merits of Tim Miles worst 4 years as an equivalent of Fred Hoiberg's career here is as bad as it sounds.

 

FWIW, I am not advocating anything when I post these numbers.  I merely am trying to add some quantifiable data to the discussion.  What the reader interprets from them is up to them.

 

One can also look at the respective careers via the KenPom numbers and see that Tim had an up and down career at Nebraska while Fred's teams have been more consistent, but they have made incremental improvements from year to year.

[hskr4life]

2019 and 2023 have some big time similarities.

 

Both years coaches on hot seat.  Both years a top 10 SOS.  Both years had key injuries to big time players.  Both years had a situation where a walk on needed to step up.  Both years had a pretty good B1G overall.

 

Tim got that team 19 wins and a 2nd round NIT game.  This year we’re hoping to hit 13-15 wins.

[Dead Dog Alley]

46 minutes ago, hskr4life said:

2019 and 2023 have some big time similarities.

 

Both years coaches on hot seat.  Both years a top 10 SOS.  Both years had key injuries to big time players.  Both years had a situation where a walk on needed to step up.  Both years had a pretty good B1G overall.

 

Tim got that team 19 wins and a 2nd round NIT game.  This year we’re hoping to hit 13-15 wins.

 

in 2019 we returned four starters; a four year starting point guard, a returning all conference player, a former five star recruit, and a guy who currently has 63 career starts in the NBA.  Which translated into a 6-14 conference record.

[hskr4life]

1 hour ago, Dead Dog Alley said:

 

in 2019 we returned four starters; a four year starting point guard, a returning all conference player, a former five star recruit, and a guy who currently has 63 career starts in the NBA.  Which translated into a 6-14 conference record.

Yeah— after Cope went down, it was rough.  I agree.

[Norm Peterson]

11 hours ago, Dead Dog Alley said:

in 2019 we returned four starters; a four year starting point guard, a returning all conference player, a former five star recruit, and a guy who currently has 63 career starts in the NBA.  Which translated into a 6-14 conference record.

This made me think about what the roster looks like for next year.
 

Assuming Fred comes back and everyone who can stay does, our best returning player is a crafty but undersized sharpshooter from Japan. Our second best returning player, right now, is a true freshman sort of combo guard who didn’t really see any minutes until Juwan Gary went down.

 

Two other potentially returning players have actually seen their minutes decrease since the injuries to our starters.

 

Finally, we have a big man who’s gone AWOL with a nagging ankle injury, and a kid who has absolutely everything you’d want in a major college basketball player except for talent and skill.

 

Fred doesn’t simply need a home run in the portal, he needs a game-winning walk off grand slam in the portal.

[millerhusker]

26 minutes ago, Norm Peterson said:

This made me think about what the roster looks like for next year.
 

Assuming Fred comes back and everyone who can stay does, our best returning player is a crafty but undersized sharpshooter from Japan. Our second best returning player, right now, is a true freshman sort of combo guard who didn’t really see any minutes until Juwan Gary went down.

 

Two other potentially returning players have actually seen their minutes decrease since the injuries to our starters.

 

Finally, we have a big man who’s gone AWOL with a nagging ankle injury, and a kid who has absolutely everything you’d want in a major college basketball player except for talent and skill.

 

Fred doesn’t simply need a home run in the portal, he needs a game-winning walk off grand slam in the portal.

I'd still say our best returning player is Juwan Gary

[Norm Peterson]

9 minutes ago, millerhusker said:

I'd still say our best returning player is Juwan Gary

 

Shoot. Forgot about the guy who's hurt. Yeah, him too.

 

In my defense, I hadn't had any coffee yet.

 

AND while I think he's a *good* returning player, he's not our *best* returning player.

Edited February 9, 2023 by Norm Peterson

[49r]

40 minutes ago, Norm Peterson said:

Fred doesn’t simply need a home run in the portal, he needs a game-winning walk off grand slam in the portal.

 

The good news is if he doesn't hit and the team stumbles to 10-14 wins again next year there should be no question about whether to keep him around for year 6.  He's gone.

 

If he hits and makes the tournament, then it's a no-brainer.  He gets a contract extension.

 

If he wins 16-19 games and goes to the NIT, there will be plenty of fun debate on this message board about his future AND we get to finally see post season hoops games with Huskers in them again.

[89Husker]

9 minutes ago, 49r said:

 

The good news is if he doesn't hit and the team stumbles to 10-14 wins again next year there should be no question about whether to keep him around for year 6.  He's gone.

 

If he hits and makes the tournament, then it's a no-brainer.  He gets a contract extension.

 

If he wins 16-19 games and goes to the NIT, there will be plenty of fun debate on this message board about his future AND we get to finally see post season hoops games with Huskers in them again.

Our fan base is so starved for a winning team that above a .500 record next year and any post-season tournament would probably get Fred a statue (exaggerating only slightly..).  Look at this year, when the team had minimal success and writing was on the wall, the arena was near full for Penn St and will be for Wisconsin. 

[HB]

Trev has major comments in an interview yesterday; perhaps  someone can link article in separate thread.  FWIW, I basically agree with everything Trev said.   Clearly  we have made substantial progress this year in improved assistants, culture, effort, defense, and an identifiable offense which is much more fun to watch than the McGowens/Verge/Teddy hero ball extravaganzas.   Too bad it didn't happen sooner.  My concern remains the roster.   With a light November class, a strong portal/juco spring class is imperative.   There is no way the returning roster (and at this point we don't even know what that is; expect some departures) will get us out of the bottom 4 in the league.  In other words, to compete at the level we are required to compete, we are bereft of talent at this moment in time.  Trev essentially noted that, paraphrasing, "now, for Fred, it is about recruiting."

[Norm Peterson]

Gone:

 

Griesel, Bandoumel, Walker

 

Back: 

 

Keisei, Gary 

Important cogs. Neither is perfect, but Keisei has really elevated his game and Juwan does some important things well.

 

Lawrence 

Has taken advantage of the injury situation to get needed reps and has shown flashes.

 

Denim 

Great athleticism. Superb intangibles. Lacks talent and skill but high-level motor. Stepped up after Gary went down.

 

CJ, Wilhelm 

Trending down. Both have lost minutes rather than gained since the injuries to two starters. Roles have been reduced.

 

Oleg 

Still a project

 

Blaise, Q 

Injuries preventing us from assessing, but they haven't shown us much yet. At this point, can't assume they'll be contributors next season.

 

Adds:

 

Ramel, Rice

I like both of these guys but we need a PG to replace Sam G., and probably another big, and then the best available scorer if we have an extra spot, which we almost always do.

 

And THAT is the state of our current roster.

[uneblinstu]

3 minutes ago, Norm Peterson said:

CJ, Wilhelm 

Trending down. Both have lost minutes rather than gained since the injuries to two starters. Roles have been reduced.

 

Adds:

 

Ramel, Rice

I like both of these guys but we need a PG to replace Sam G., and probably another big, and then the best available scorer if we have an extra spot, which we almost always do.

I think CJ will be a big time bounce back candidate. He was so good down the stretch last year that I have a hard time believing he just lost it. Wilhelm will be interesting, too. There's a raw skill set there that I think can be rally good with some continued molding.

 

PG is interesting. It's a huge need. Do they think they have the answer in house with Ramel and Quaran? How do they want to focus their recruiting priorities? Do they go after a portal PG? A senior? A player with more than a year of eligibility? OR do they try to go after a couple of big time difference makers like Keyonte Johnson? It will be interesting to see how it all goes this summer.

[hskr4life]

I was playing around with the bracket generator today, and I found a way to get us the 10 seed and Maryland the first game.  I'm not saying, I'm just saying.

[hhcmatt]

1 minute ago, uneblinstu said:

I think CJ will be a big time bounce back candidate. He was so good down the stretch last year that I have a hard time believing he just lost it. Wilhelm will be interesting, too. There's a raw skill set there that I think can be rally good with some continued molding.

 

PG is interesting. It's a huge need. Do they think they have the answer in house with Ramel and Quaran? How do they want to focus their recruiting priorities? Do they go after a portal PG? A senior? A player with more than a year of eligibility? OR do they try to go after a couple of big time difference makers like Keyonte Johnson? It will be interesting to see how it all goes this summer.

 

 

 

It's real interesting because I'm still not sure of what kind of PG that we need.  It feels like our offense runs better when we have these big distributors like Dalano two years ago and Griesel/Walker this season.  The flipside is that those two years are also us turning the ball over way too much. Ramel is 6'6".  Have to wonder if between him and Lawrence if they can keep the ball moving yet secured.  Do either Blaise or Breidenbach have the ability to operate as a distributor out of the post? Not real confident there.

 

 

24 minutes ago, Norm Peterson said:

Keisei, Gary 

Important cogs. Neither is perfect, but Keisei has really elevated his game and Juwan does some important things well.

 

A big part of what is elevating Keisei's game is Walker operating out of the post. He's been scoring all those back cut layups in part because Walker is a good passer and there isn't anyone clogging up the lane.

[Handy Johnson]

5 minutes ago, hskr4life said:

I was playing around with the bracket generator today, and I found a way to get us the 10 seed and Maryland the first game.  I'm not saying, I'm just saying.

You might be taking some of the same stuff ARog is during his “4 days of darkness”…

[hskr4life]

13 minutes ago, Handy Johnson said:

You might be taking some of the same stuff ARog is during his “4 days of darkness”…

 

I mean if we reallllly want to go deep in the "stuff"-- I managed to come up with a scenario where we got the 7 seed at 10-10.