Nebraska on the Selection Committee Board

[atskooc]

Just now, jdostal said:

I am like 75% certain that his editors told him to put us in his articles because they know we'll click if we're close. So in his mind we are probably in the next four out and he'll keep us as the second team out until we actually pass that point in his mind.

 

So don't click on Lunardi's BS

I don't click on any of the projections...because they don't matter. 

 

Unless a guy can accurately peg every spot a month out, what's the point? Where Lunardi (or any of them) has us in his standings right now doesn't matter in any way in terms of us getting in the tourney or not.  He doesn't know anything.  If he did, he'd be more accurate in his projections at a far earlier date.

[jdostal]

For sure. They bait you into caring about their projections by saying they're 98% accurate with picks... on their final bracket before selection Sunday.

 

I still like checking them to see what teams are in the same boat as us, though. Having rooting interests is just fun.

[big red22]

https://carolinasportsthoughts.wordpress.com/

 

Exact reason bracket matrix is not accurate.  This freaking idiot still has Maryland ahead of us and we are a 3 seed in the NIT.  I guess he projects we lose out?  What an idiot!

[Cookie Miller Wasn't Dirty]

1 hour ago, atskooc said:

I don't click on any of the projections...because they don't matter. 

 

Unless a guy can accurately peg every spot a month out, what's the point? Where Lunardi (or any of them) has us in his standings right now doesn't matter in any way in terms of us getting in the tourney or not.  He doesn't know anything.  If he did, he'd be more accurate in his projections at a far earlier date.

 

To be fair, his updates are projecting what he thinks the field would be if the selections were made today. He's not projecting how teams will finish the season. Given that, I think it's interesting to see where the people who are in-the-know have us. The thing is, these guys are no better than you and I would be if we put in the time to analyze it like they do. And recently, I probably have lol. But for those that don't, it is a good tool to get a glimpse of where we're at. This Nebraska team is a perfect example... without the Bracketologists, the majority of our fanbase would assume we'd easily be in right now simply based on our record. But with them, we know we're on the bubble.

[big red22]

Brackets that obviously have a bias against Nebraska, or don't pay any attention as of February 14th...

 

https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/e/2PACX-1vTt8UxjKAEIjcj_InZ1Ah_CIKJqlphKL7VPfsqWzJUFI1TIAvQXH6NFuHYjlDX88TkqqcVhZINYlzCm/pubhtml?gid=1728765619&single=true

 

Here is another sweet one.  Maryland as a 9 seed and Nebraska in the first 4 out.  I mean seriously have these dumbasses even watched Nebraska in a freaking game?

 

http://onemancommittee.com/

 

Doesn't even have us listed.  11-4 Big 10 team not even in consideration in this guys mind.

 

https://bracketresearch.com/bracketology-bracket-projection/

 

Has Maryland as a 10 seed and Penn State in the First 4 out, but Nebraska is not listed

 

My brain is about to explode.  Can't look at anymore at the moment!

 

Edited February 15, 2018 by big red22

[tcp]

1 hour ago, atskooc said:

All of these updates (Lunardi et al) are there for the same reason mock drafts are: to get you talking. 

 

I bet Lunardi had no reason at all for putting St Bonaventure ahead of us other than to get fans of the two teams yapping.  He needs to stay important in order to stay employed.  Paying attention to him merely fans the flame. 

 

I hate mock drafts, bracket projections, and preseason rankings all for the same reason: they're a sham.

 

Is Lunardi in the room making decisions on Sunday? Nope.  His opinion matters as much as mine does in this matter.

I love you for this post. we can't forget that these talking heads are in the business of selling subscriptions and advertisements, and they can't do that without eyeballs. So just as LaVar Ball gets press for being outrageous to the point of stupidity, so, too, do these radio shows and television experts. It pays to be a bit media cynical sometimes. Controversy is profitable. 

[Cookie Miller Wasn't Dirty]

12 minutes ago, big red22 said:

Brackets that obviously have a bias against Nebraska, or don't pay any attention as of February 14th...

 

https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/e/2PACX-1vTt8UxjKAEIjcj_InZ1Ah_CIKJqlphKL7VPfsqWzJUFI1TIAvQXH6NFuHYjlDX88TkqqcVhZINYlzCm/pubhtml?gid=1728765619&single=true

 

Here is another sweet one.  Maryland as a 9 seed and Nebraska in the first 4 out.  I mean seriously have these dumbasses even watched Nebraska a freaking game?

 

http://onemancommittee.com/

 

Doesn't even have us listed.  11-4 Big 10 team not even in consideration in this guys mind.

 

https://bracketresearch.com/bracketology-bracket-projection/

 

Has Maryland as a 10 seed and Penn State in the First 4 out, but Nebraska is not listed

 

My brain is about to explode.  Can't look at anymore at the moment!

 

 

Putting Maryland in automatically disqualifies one's opinion.

Edited February 15, 2018 by Cookie Miller Wasn't Dirty

[atskooc]

12 minutes ago, Cookie Miller Wasn't Dirty said:

 

To be fair, his updates are projecting what he thinks the field would be if the selections were made today. He's not projecting how teams will finish the season. Given that, I think it's interesting to see where the people who are in-the-know have us. The thing is, these guys are no better than you and I would be if we put in the time to analyze it like they do. And recently, I probably have lol. But for those that don't, it is a good tool to get a glimpse of where we're at. This Nebraska team is a perfect example... without the Bracketologists, the majority of our fanbase would assume we'd easily be in right now simply based on our record. But with them, we know we're on the bubble.

But if the people putting us on the bubble aren't any closer to making the final decision than the normal fans are, then why should we pay attention to them when they put us on the bubble?

 

We're on the bubble merely because they say we are.  Either we make it in the tournament or we don't.  Where the bracketologists put us right now doesn't matter in that aspect in any way.

 

And I would suspect that the majority of our fanbase probably doesn't know who these guys are at all. 

[tcp]

Something also to add: if you handed most of us a paper with all the expanded standings in it and nothing else, we'd be able to fill out about 3/4 of the field right now (as of today, of course). The money in this business is in the "bubble". Or, to put it another way I've grown fond of by a cynical friend of mine, "bubbles = baubles"

 

It's like when you follow those "prediction" sheets that are basically telling you what you already know, because they change with each win or loss. That's technically not a prediction: it's a description of how you're doing. I can do that myself by looking the basic descriptive stats of my team relative to the others. 

 

The wonkish term for this alchemy is "mystification"--the process by which something simple is rendered arcane and obscure, all as a means of privileging the mystifier's apparent knowledge. 

 

Eff, I love sports some days...:) 

[Blindcheck]

I think...much like preseason football polls...if you start your bracket projections to early....you tend to have bias for those teams that you had in your first versions of the bracket.

 

In my opinion, resumes of teams are really not even close to as decent look until about now....so having a bracket in early January only causes you to have a bias one way or another.

 

I put a list together of the teams that still have a chance of getting an at large bid on Sunday....As of Sunday, I had 86 teams that can still get an at large bid....in 14 conferences....so 86 teams for 50 spots (14 conference bids and 36 at large bids).  There are some on that list...that are very much longshots, but winning out they could still make it close or sneak in.

 

 

 

 

[Silverbacked1]

2 hours ago, atskooc said:

All of these updates (Lunardi et al) are there for the same reason mock drafts are: to get you talking. 

 

I bet Lunardi had no reason at all for putting St Bonaventure ahead of us other than to get fans of the two teams yapping.  He needs to stay important in order to stay employed.  Paying attention to him merely fans the flame. 

 

I hate mock drafts, bracket projections, and preseason rankings all for the same reason: they're a sham.

 

Is Lunardi in the room making decisions on Sunday? Nope.  His opinion matters as much as mine does in this matter.

 

Spot on.  What are there 109 guys who "know" how the bracket is going to be?

 

The other one i have a major problem with are the high school scouting,  No way some guy sitting behind a computer in New York  can tell if some kid in Nebraska is a "star" better or worse than some kid from Texas.  You can have a good guess, but...

 

I mean that school in Florida yesterday has 5,000 students in it.  There might be a kid that doesn't even go out because of  the sear number of players that is better than anybody on the team, conference, state...  who knows... no body.

 

Okay breathe deep...  thing of my good place... 

[Cookie Miller Wasn't Dirty]

30 minutes ago, atskooc said:

But if the people putting us on the bubble aren't any closer to making the final decision than the normal fans are, then why should we pay attention to them when they put us on the bubble?

 

We're on the bubble merely because they say we are.  Either we make it in the tournament or we don't.  Where the bracketologists put us right now doesn't matter in that aspect in any way.

 

And I would suspect that the majority of our fanbase probably doesn't know who these guys are at all. 

 

This sentence sounds like my girlfriend when she says, "Why even watch the game? You can see who wins later."

 

It's fun as a fan to go along for the ride. It's at least a decent estimation of where we currently stand, and it gives the fans (and even the team) an idea of what we need to do to get in. If you don't like it, nobody is forcing you to pay attention to it.

[atskooc]

Just now, Cookie Miller Wasn't Dirty said:

 

This sentence sounds like my girlfriend when she says, "Why even watch the game? You can see who wins later."

 

It's fun as a fan to go along for the ride. It's at least a decent estimation of where we currently stand, and it gives the fans (and even the team) an idea of what we need to do to get in. If you don't like it, nobody is forcing you to pay attention to it.

The line from your girlfriend made me laugh!  I think my wife thinks the same way sometimes.

 

The fun I get is from the games Nebraska plays.  The rest of it isn't fun for me; it's noise.  Noise I try to block out.

 

I don't usually pay attention to it, that's for sure.  Just thought I'd say my bit.

[hhcmatt]

16 minutes ago, Silverbacked1 said:

Spot on.  What are there 109 guys who "know" how the bracket is going to be?

 

If you want to check out which bracket guys have been submitting them for 3+ years and are the most accurate at it, check out the leaderboard.

http://www.bracketmatrix.com/rankings.html

 

Otherwise people are holding out because they don't know if we will win the rest/most of the rest. We keep winning and we won't be left out.

[HuskerFever]

2 hours ago, atskooc said:

His opinion matters as much as mine does in this matter.

 

His opinion goes a long ways. Just as Pomeroy's does. Let's just hope the committee can muffle out the noise.

[atskooc]

Just now, HuskerFever said:

 

His opinion goes a long ways. Just as Pomeroy's does. Let's just hope the committee can muffle out the noise.

Lunardi's opinion affects the selection committee?

[hhcmatt]

5 minutes ago, atskooc said:

Lunardi's opinion affects the selection committee?

 

How much does the committee watch ESPN?  If you're watching a game on there during the break or on a ticker they probably bring up what Lunardi is thinking. While all of these people should make up their own mind it certainly goes into your ear.  To point, I'm on the fence about buying a MyPillow.

[atskooc]

29 minutes ago, hhcdimes said:

 

How much does the committee watch ESPN?  If you're watching a game on there during the break or on a ticker they probably bring up what Lunardi is thinking. While all of these people should make up their own mind it certainly goes into your ear.  To point, I'm on the fence about buying a MyPillow.

But what Lunardi says changes so often that unless they're watching ESPN specifically for Lunardi's information, I'm not sure anything would sink in.

 

I've seen Lunardi's projections on ESPN (and all over this thread), but other than the team I care about, I have no idea who he has in and out. 

[HuskerFever]

Well this is slightly inaccurate...

 

https://www.landof10.com/nebraska/nebraska-cornhuskers-ncaa-tournament-2018-basketball-march-madness

 

"It’s not their fault the league sucks, but if the league didn’t suck, they wouldn’t be winning so many games, too.”

[hhcmatt]

Old grouping system vs Quadrants

 

 

 

[hhctony]

13 minutes ago, hhcdimes said:

Old grouping system vs Quadrants

 

 

 

 

I'll be real curious to see how this plays out, but there is a part of me that says IF (Q1+Q2 WINS) > (Q3+Q4 LOSSES) your chances of dancing dramatically increase.

[HuskerFever]

http://journalstar.com/sports/huskers/husker-extra-podcast-nebrasketball-s-evolution-and-the-early-fight/article_59ec8f5f-8a95-52cb-8151-89ca05caa18b.html

 

“You can’t punish a team for being part of a conference that isn’t having the best year,” Crispin said. “Now, I think our conference is as competitive as ever, but in terms of an RPI and strength of schedule and all that stuff we seem to value when it comes to the NCAA Tournament, it’s just not there.

 

“I would hate to see Nebraska punished because of that because this is a really good basketball team that not only should be in the NCAA Tournament, if they get there will be pretty dangerous.”

 

“Penn State and Nebraska are two of the top three talented teams in the conference, which no one says enough,” Crispin said. “I think Michigan State probably is the best, but right behind is Nebraska and Penn State. Their starting lineups are as talented as anybody in the conference.”

[HuskerActuary]

On my phone so it's not easy to link, but the most accurate bracket on bracket Matrix is a guy that goes by bracket guy Dave or Bracketville. He just tweeted that we are his third team out in his updated bracket. He's been pretty low on us prior to this week, so good news there

[Dead Dog Alley]

On ‎2‎/‎14‎/‎2018 at 1:34 PM, royalfan said:

LRMC is a college basketball ranking system designed to use only basic scoreboard data: which two teams played, whose court they played on, and what the margin of victory was.

LRMC stands for "Logistic Regression/Markov Chain", the two primary mathematical techniques that were a part of our system. We've subsequently added a Bayesian component as well.

 

 

I come to a basketball forum and I'm reading about Markov Chains?  What will we be discussing next, Fourier Transforms?  The Calculus of Variations?  Numerical methods to solve systems of nonlinear partial differential equations?  For the love of God, it's like being back in Oldfather...

[HuskerFever]

Don't blink now, but if Michigan State, Ohio State, and Purdue lose the remainder of their games WE'RE BIG TEN REGULAR SEASON CHAMPIONS!

 

(Okay, back to your regularly scheduled reality...)