KenPom 2017-2018 KenPom Rankings Thread

[hskr4life]

Interesting to note, but Illinois is almost a “not 100+ KenPom loss for us.”

Edited February 21, 2018 by hskr4life

[Swan88]

And how does a team come in at #35 with six losses in their last 11 games, including four blow-out losses by 14, 20, 22 and 23 point margins?

[AuroranHusker]

19 minutes ago, hskr4life said:

Interesting to note, but Illinois is almost a “not 100+ KenPom loss for us.”

 

They finish with Purdue and then at Rutgers. Win the last one & they're likely real close to a top 100 team. Also, not last place.

 

[big red22]

18 minutes ago, Swan88 said:

And how does a team come in at #35 with six losses in their last 11 games, including four blow-out losses by 14, 20, 22 and 23 point margins?

The rating systems are a joke that is why!

 

How is Maryland where they are?  Any person that has been paying attention to basketball knows that Nebraska is a better team, yet somehow Maryland is ranked 30 spots ahead of us in these dumb ass computer rankings!

[jdostal]

Some of you just really need to stop coming to the kenpom thread for your own sake.

[big red22]

Is there anyone that has the ability to adjust the kenpom ratings and remove all team wins with a ranking of 250+

 

I honestly feel that we would be ranked between 30-40 without Marist, Delaware St., Stetson and Eastern Illinois on our resume.  They are killing our RPI and other computer rankings.  Committee should ignore any win over 250+ and use them in a resume "ONLY" if they are loss for any team battling for a tournament spot. 

 

They should not be allowed to hurt our schedule.  If you win the game, at the end of the year if the team is ranked outside of the top 250 they are treated as a DII game and are not allowed to affect your RPI and other computer rankings.  It is not our fault they ended up sucking worse than the other sucky teams ranked 100-250.  There is just to much attached to those win in the overall resume, and in the grand scheme of things they are irrelevant.  Meaning who cares that we beat Marist at 312 or UC Irvine at 144.  We are going to beat either of those teams, one hurts us and the other doesn't.

Edited February 21, 2018 by big red22

[hhcmatt]

23 minutes ago, big red22 said:

I honestly feel that we would be ranked between 30-40 without Marist, Delaware St., Stetson and Eastern Illinois on our resume.  They are killing our RPI and other computer rankings.  

 

Kenpom is a predictive system, not a rankings system. It's main function is to tell you if you match up two teams, who will win.

It doesn't care if you win or lose so much as how much you win or lose by.  For the RPI whether or not you beat Marist by 1 or 100 doesn't matter. It does for KenPom. 

 

[nustudent]

7 minutes ago, hhcdimes said:

 

Kenpom is a predictive system, not a rankings system. It's main function is to tell you if you match up two teams, who will win.

It doesn't care if you win or lose so much as how much you win or lose by.  For the RPI whether or not you beat Marist by 1 or 100 doesn't matter. It does for KenPom. 

 

Guessing our Kenpom would be alit better had we not struggled with several of those bottom feeders 

[hhcmatt]

2 hours ago, Swan88 said:

And how does a team come in at #35 with six losses in their last 11 games, including four blow-out losses by 14, 20, 22 and 23 point margins?

 

The rankings are by adjusted efficiency margin....taking an adjusted offensive number and subtracting an adjusted defensive margin.

https://kenpom.com/blog/ratings-methodology-update/

 

The ratings get "stickier" as the season goes along so it's harder to move up or down as the season progresses unless something dramatic happens.

I think you could probably argue, and I know we have, that the Big East is slightly overrated. Thus being beat down by Villanova on the road or losing a close game at Xavier doesn't move the needle much. Losing at home to Marquette and getting killed on the road at Butler did. Since losing Krumple they've gone from 18th to 35th and I expect them to trend downward as losses vs Villanova and at Marquette look likely. They probably make the tourney but like last year they're backing in and probably get bounced in the first round.

[hskr4life]

4 minutes ago, hhcdimes said:

 

The rankings are by adjusted efficiency margin....taking an adjusted offensive number and subtracting an adjusted defensive margin.

https://kenpom.com/blog/ratings-methodology-update/

 

The ratings get "stickier" as the season goes along so it's harder to move up or down as the season progresses unless something dramatic happens.

I think you could probably argue, and I know we have, that the Big East is slightly overrated. Thus being beat down by Villanova on the road or losing a close game at Xavier doesn't move the needle much. Losing at home to Marquette and getting killed on the road at Butler did. Since losing Krumple they've gone from 18th to 35th and I expect them to trend downward as losses vs Villanova and at Marquette look likely. They probably make the tourney but like last year they're backing in and probably get bounced in the first round.

 

Probably one of the main reasons we didn't move a whole lot for losing to Illinois.

[Swan88]

The Idea, presumably, is to provide an over-all picture of each team.  One or two outlier results every now and then for any team (every team has them) will be balanced out over time.  However, it seems that a strong bias exits in favor of early season results.  In years past, selection committees said they focused on late-season trends over early-season results.  Explanation this year appear to be the opposite.

[hhcmatt]

1 hour ago, nustudent said:

Guessing our Kenpom would be alit better had we not struggled with several of those bottom feeders 

 

Yes. The computer rewards you for killing cupcakes, not screwing around with your lineups.

[jdostal]

Bart Torvik has a good explanation of what Kenpom's "secret sauce" is, too. I found reading it was pretty informative.

 

Click link, Ctrl+F "Secret Sauce": http://adamcwisports.blogspot.com/p/every-possession-counts.html

[49r]

Not a lot of movement (up to #54) - and not much was expected really win or lose so I thought I'd just put the whole season up here for now.  Look at all that green.  Looks good!

 

Sat Nov 11	97	258	Eastern Illinois	W, 72-68	72		Home	1-0
Mon Nov 13	102	186	North Texas	W, 86-67	73		Home	2-0
Thu Nov 16	100	76	St. John's	L, 79-56	72		Away	2-1
Sun Nov 19	112	252	North Dakota	W, 92-70	78		Home	3-1
Thu Nov 23	112	102	UCF	L, 68-59	68		Semi-Away	3-2
Fri Nov 24	114	317	Marist	W, 84-59	62		Neutral	4-2
Sun Nov 26	104	198	Long Beach St.	W, 85-80	74		Neutral	5-2
Wed Nov 29	111	83	Boston College	W, 71-62	64		Home	6-2
Sun Dec 3	104	5	Michigan St.	L, 86-57	67		Away	6-3	0-1
Tue Dec 5	105	108	Minnesota	W, 78-68	76		Home	7-3	1-1
Sat Dec 9	91	28	Creighton	L, 75-65	70		Away	7-4
Sat Dec 16	92	9	Kansas	L, 73-72	69		Home	7-5
Wed Dec 20	86	173	UTSA	W, 104-94	74		Home	8-5
Fri Dec 22	85	350	Delaware St.	W, 85-68	70		Home	9-5
Fri Dec 29	94	310	Stetson	W, 71-62	76		Home	10-5
Tue Jan 2	97	90	Northwestern	W, 70-55	62		Away	11-5	2-1
Sat Jan 6	81	4	Purdue	L, 74-62	72		Away	11-6	2-2
Tue Jan 9	81	80	Wisconsin	W, 63-59	66		Home	12-6	3-2
Fri Jan 12	81	32	Penn St.	L, 76-74	76	OT	Away	12-7	3-3
Mon Jan 15	81	101	Illinois	W, 64-63	66		Home	13-7	4-3
Thu Jan 18	85	16	Michigan	W, 72-52	59		Home	14-7	5-3
Mon Jan 22	67	15	Ohio St.	L, 64-59	61		Away	14-8	5-4
Wed Jan 24	65	161	Rutgers	W, 60-54	65		Away	15-8	6-4
Sat Jan 27	63	100	Iowa	W, 98-84	70		Home	16-8	7-4
Mon Jan 29	61	80	Wisconsin	W, 74-63	70		Away	17-8	8-4
Tue Feb 6	61	108	Minnesota	W, 91-85	69		Away	18-8	9-4
Sat Feb 10	56	161	Rutgers	W, 67-55	62		Home	19-8	10-4
Tue Feb 13	52	46	Maryland	W, 70-66	64		Home	20-8	11-4
Sun Feb 18	53	101	Illinois	L, 72-66	65		Away	20-9	11-5
Tue Feb 20	56	73	Indiana	W, 66-57	65		Home	21-9	12-5
Sun Feb 25	59	32	Penn St.	W, 76-64	70		Home	22-9	13-5

[FredsSlacks]

if the computer models tell us who the best teams are then why even have an ncaa tournament?

 

i'm sure the computer models projected south carolina to make the final four last year.

 

[HolyBobpilgrimage]

If we *really* beat what was the supposedly 32nd ranked team tonight, shouldn't we move up a bit? Nope, because these computer models are interesting but unreliable. Why anyone puts stock in these I have no idea. 

[hskr4life]

2 minutes ago, Wolv77 said:

If we *really* beat what was the supposedly 32nd ranked team tonight, shouldn't we move up a bit? Nope, because these computer models are interesting but unreliable. Why anyone puts stock in these I have no idea. 

 

Yep.  My 2 cents, but there is a reason they have a committee and that gives me big hope.  If the committee really wants the best 32 teams in the nation, we are in.  If it’s computer based... I’m worried.  The reason I think we are in win/lose against MU is the fact that there’s a committee.  Actual humans that can say... this team is one of the best teams this year.

[HuskerFever]

6 hours ago, TimSmiles said:

if the computer models tell us who the best teams are then why even have an ncaa tournament?

 

i'm sure the computer models projected south carolina to make the final four last year.

 

 

Absolutely. But if South Carolina wasn't selected into the tournament the world would never have known how good they were. Step 1 happens on Friday thru Sunday. Step 2 happens on Selection Sunday.

[49r]

Which loss hurts us more?  @Illinois or @Penn State?  Here is today's KenPom update:

 

 

---

 

KenPom rankings as of 2-26-18
=========================

 

B1G (13-5):
4. Purdue (17) - L
5. Michigan State (10) - L
15. Ohio State (78) - L
16. Michigan (32) - W
32. Penn State (40) - L, W
46. Maryland (41) - W
54. Nebraska (98)
73. Indiana (65) - W

80. Wisconsin (31) - W, W
90. Northwestern (18) - W

100. Iowa (54) - W
101. Illinois (104) - W, L
108. Minnesota (36) - W, W
161. Rutgers (125) - W, W

 

Non-Conference (9-4):
258. Eastern Illinois - W
186. North Texas - W

 

---Gavitt Tip-Off---
76. @St. John's - L

252. North Dakota - W

 

---Advocare Invitational---
102. UCF - L
317. Marist - W
198. Long Beach State - W

 

---B1G/ACC Challenge--- 
83. Boston College - W

 

28. @Creighton - L

 

---Shelter Insurance Showcase---
9. Kansas - L

 

173. UTSA - W
350. Delaware State - W
310. Stetson - W

 

 

**Parenthesis after the Big Ten team names indicates the season starting KenPom ranking.

**Blue indicates NIT team from last year, Red is NCAA Tourney

•  

[jayschool]

Does it matter that the Illinois team we lost to is 4-6 in its last 10 games?

[HuskerActuary]

At Penn State hurts more for sure. Basically, the higher the tier, the more important the game is

[jayschool]

Nebraska's road record (4-8), according to KenPom:

November

@ #76 L

@ #102 L (neutral court, home town)

December

@ #5 L

@ #28 L

January

@ #90 W

@ #4 L

@ #32 L

@ #15 L

@ #161 W

@ #80 W

February

@ #108 W

@ #101 L

 

 

 

[49r]

 

[49r]

 

[49r]